Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Adam Griffin]

Top 10:
98.14% - Montana
94.89% - Georgia
94.28% - North Dakota
92.37% - Texas
91.64% - South Dakota
91.06% - Hawaii
91.01% - Oregon
89.26% - Tennessee
88.60% - Wisconsin
87.84% - Minnesota

[User157088589849]

With remaining ballots in Arizona threshold is around 1,165,000 votes.

Sinema needs to break 117k votes (McSally needs 148k votes) from remaining 264k ballots.

198k ballots in Maricopa and 36.6k in Pima

[CookieDamage]

Top 10:
98.14% - Montana
94.89% - Georgia
94.28% - North Dakota
92.37% - Texas
91.64% - South Dakota
91.06% - Hawaii
91.01% - Oregon
89.26% - Tennessee
88.60% - Wisconsin
87.84% - Minnesota

Do you have numbers by state? I'd love to compare them to 2012 vs 2014 numbers, or 2008 vs. 2010.

[Adam Griffin]

Top 10:
98.14% - Montana
94.89% - Georgia
94.28% - North Dakota
92.37% - Texas
91.64% - South Dakota
91.06% - Hawaii
91.01% - Oregon
89.26% - Tennessee
88.60% - Wisconsin
87.84% - Minnesota

Do you have numbers by state? I'd love to compare them to 2012 vs 2014 numbers, or 2008 vs. 2010.

Here

[Tender Branson]

Caution for the turnout map:

Many of these numbers are not yet final.

CA for example has more than 4.6 million uncounted ballots.

The final turnout will only be known in early January, when the Census Bureau releases the Mid-2018 state population and 18+ estimates and the states their final "total ballots cast" reports.

[KingSweden]

Funny, when Democrats lose: "You lost, get over it." When Republicans lose: "Voter fraud! Finding votes! They stole the election!"

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/amyewalter/status/1061459142030827520

^^ good point

Yes but they lost a handful of senate seats so naturally that is all that matters and the election was a NIGHTMARE

[Virginiá]

^^ oh yea, the house gains exceeded expectations, and the senate results are not that bad.
but, I really hoped democrats might've at least kept MO and Indiana, for he sake of the supreme court,

let hope Sinema wins Arizona, so it wouldn't be so hard to capture the senate in 2020

Yea it did suck, but I'm just being snarky cuz Democrats had a good night for once and parts of my party are somehow still despondent over it

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Why does it take Arizona and California so long to count their votes?  I can understand why some mail ballots don't arrive until after the election, but for the most part that doesn't seem to be the case here.
If the ballots are already in, why don't they just count them on election night like everyone else?

[Devout Centrist]

Why does it take Arizona and California so long to count their votes?  I can understand why some mail ballots don't arrive until after the election, but for the most part that doesn't seem to be the case here.
If the ballots are already in, why don't they just count them on election night like everyone else?

You can only verify and count so many thousands of ballots a day

[Landslide Lyndon]

So today we will have updates only from Arizona. Right?

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/amyewalter/status/1061459142030827520

^^ good point

If it wasn't for gerrymandering, Dems probably would've been a lot closer to that 63 number.

[pppolitics]

Why does it take Arizona and California so long to count their votes?  I can understand why some mail ballots don't arrive until after the election, but for the most part that doesn't seem to be the case here.
If the ballots are already in, why don't they just count them on election night like everyone else?

Arizona apparently have machines from the 1980s that can only read so many ballots per day.

Also, Arizona requires signatures on the ballots to be matched to signatures on the voter registration.

If the signatures don't match, election officials have to contact the voters.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Why does it take Arizona and California so long to count their votes?  I can understand why some mail ballots don't arrive until after the election, but for the most part that doesn't seem to be the case here.
If the ballots are already in, why don't they just count them on election night like everyone else?

You can only verify and count so many thousands of ballots a day

Don't other states count millions on election night?  Oregon has entirely mail-in voting, and it seems like they are always counted almost immediately.  Same more or less with Colorado.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061682094705786880

[Virginiá]

SoS Rep. lead down to 1,591

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/amyewalter/status/1061459142030827520

^^ good point

If it wasn't for gerrymandering, Dems probably would've been a lot closer to that 63 number.

That seems unlikely to me because, without gerrymandering, they already would have been much closer to a majority after 2016.

[Pericles]

https://twitter.com/amyewalter/status/1061459142030827520

^^ good point

If it wasn't for gerrymandering, Dems probably would've been a lot closer to that 63 number.

Absolutely. Plus Republicans had a lot of low hanging fruit in 2010 and started from a lower base at 179 seats(while Dems had 195 seats), by itself that limits the gains. The GOP went from a -11% PV margin to +7%, Dems went from -1% to around +7 or 8%. And Democrats probably would have managed to get more seats than the 2010 GOP's 242 without gerrymandering anyway.

[Devout Centrist]

Why does it take Arizona and California so long to count their votes?  I can understand why some mail ballots don't arrive until after the election, but for the most part that doesn't seem to be the case here.
If the ballots are already in, why don't they just count them on election night like everyone else?

You can only verify and count so many thousands of ballots a day

Don't other states count millions on election night?  Oregon has entirely mail-in voting, and it seems like they are always counted almost immediately.  Same more or less with Colorado.

States like New York don't have to tabulate thousands of ballots received by mail on the day of the election itself.

Colorado, Oregon, and Washington are all still counting ballots, too. No one is focusing on them because all of their major matchups have already been called.

[wbrocks67]

Sinema gains 400 votes, now leads by 30,300 statewide, or 1.4% (49.5-48.1)

[Former Kentuckian]

SoS Rep. lead down to 1,591

If Kyrsten Sinema, Katie Hobbs, Sandra Kennedy, and Kathy Hoffman are all elected, I might cry tears of joy.

[pppolitics]

The batch that Maricopa is going to drop today is supposedly pro-McSally.

Let's see how that plays out.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Why does it take Arizona and California so long to count their votes?  I can understand why some mail ballots don't arrive until after the election, but for the most part that doesn't seem to be the case here.
If the ballots are already in, why don't they just count them on election night like everyone else?

You can only verify and count so many thousands of ballots a day

Don't other states count millions on election night?  Oregon has entirely mail-in voting, and it seems like they are always counted almost immediately.  Same more or less with Colorado.

I *think* Oregon started counting as ballots come in, before election night.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

The batch that Maricopa is going to drop today is supposedly pro-McSally.

Let's see how that plays out.

My guess is it will be a near tie in votes coming from Maricopa today, maybe a couple percentage points or so in favor of McSally, but not enough.

[pppolitics]

How many Coconino votes were just tabulated

~1300