Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Sestak]

Do we know how many Batch B votes are actually left? If there were 200K left yesterday, and at least 50K of those were counted today, the math becomes basically impossible for McSally.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061417560657162240

Maricopa Totals: ~198,000
Maricopa Batch A: ~50,000
Maricopa Batch B: ~148,000

That’s callable.

[Xing]

Stick a fork in McSally, she's done.

when will dems stick a fork in Nelson?

I mean, there's a difference between a 1.3% deficit and a 0.15% deficit, though most of us aren't really holding out much hope at all for Nelson. Either way, the votes in both states should be counted in their entirety, and it's disheartening (though not surprising) that there are many in the country who can't at least agree on that.

[Gass3268]

Stick a fork in McSally, she's done.

when will dems stick a fork in Nelson?

I mean, there's a difference between a 1.3% deficit and a 0.15% deficit, though most of us aren't really holding out much hope at all for Nelson. Either way, the votes in both states should be counted in their entirety, and it's disheartening (though not surprising) that there are many in the country who can't at least agree on that.

In the minute by minute news cycle it had to be done on Tuesday, otherwise it doesn't count.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, that means there are at most 180K McSally-friendly votes left. She'd need to win those by 15-16 points just to pull even, and that's not counting the remaining votes that favor Sinema.

[American2020]

Sinema: 49.51%
McSally: 48.15%

https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0

[Ronnie]

Sinema: 49.51%
McSally: 48.15%

https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0

[Gass3268]

Yeah, that means there are at most 180K McSally-friendly votes left. She'd need to win those by 15-16 points just to pull even, and that's not counting the remaining votes that favor Sinema.

Esepcially considering as of now she's only winning the E-Day vote by in the county by 5.2%.

https://twitter.com/treyterry/status/1060743241010577414

[Landslide Lyndon]

[Calthrina950]

Is it possible that Sinema could hit 50% with the remaining votes, like Tester did?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Remind me again why none of the networks have called the 48th for Rouda? The results probably won’t even be close when all the votes are counted.

[henster]

Hmm not much of a boost for Dems in that Cali dump, is that unusual how much did they count?

[Gass3268]

Hmm not much of a boost for Dems in that Cali dump, is that unusual how much did they count?

Eyeballing it, it looks like about 8-9K per race.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Hmm not much of a boost for Dems in that Cali dump, is that unusual how much did they count?

Eh, Wasserman seems to expect Dems to win even CA-39. Looks like they did not count that many votes today.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1061362300043575297

And in CA-45, the R lead dropped 1%, so that is not too bad I wouldn't say.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1061361627373731840

[IceSpear]

McSally might be reluctant to go full on nutcase because she’s smart enough to know it would hurt her in a 2020 race if voters perceive her as a sore loser

Unlike Trump and the peanut gallery, McSally isn't an idiot. She knows how elections in Arizona work. She barely lost through this exact same process in 2012 and barely won through this exact same process in 2014.

[OneJ]

Remind me again why none of the networks have called the 48th for Rouda? The results probably won’t even be close when all the votes are counted.

Yep. Rouda has already announced that he and his staff think they’ve won now.

[IceSpear]

I’m really confused why everyone is acting like this is a forgone conclusion.

I could easily see McSally winning this, unfortunately

Good thing you're always wrong then.

Feel like Maricopa is going to dash our hopes ugh.

lol. The concern trolling is getting stale, henster.

[_]

AZ-SOS is gonna flip Dem if the votes keep going like this, that'd be great news for AZ Dems and National Dems for 2020 and beyond.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1061428139153334273

[NOVA Green]

Regarding Arizona, this whole Bucket A vs Bucket B concept is a giant load of bullocks, premised upon traditional midterm turnout elections in '14 and '10 and GE turnout in '12 and '16.

We went through this with the Arizona Special Election in CD-08 just this past April, and what appears to be happening is that traditional voting patterns are shifting dramatically when it comes to EV/ED numbers.

Initially the voter modeling in AZ CD-08 suggested a much higher level of ballots still to be cast, as we assessed numbers coming in post ED...

Now we have a totally different scene in one of the highest Turnout non-PRES election years in US History, this even further confuses the situation...

What this means is that the "Batch A" vs "Batch B" concept, can be safely tossed out the car window and consigned to the dustbin of history when it comes to Arizona voter return and counting practices.

That being said, I'm wishing that I had spent more time looking at the real time results as they came in, like I did in the '18 CD-08 SE, and compare/contrast against historical voting data by precinct... (Maricopa County like most of the Western US is extremely transparent when it comes to counting of the ballots).

Here is a link to the CD-08 SE thread for anyone interested...

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=287204.msg6155288#msg6155288

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061429648305795072

https://twitter.com/DrRyanLove/status/1061430504291995649

[Former Kentuckian]

AZ-SOS is gonna flip Dem if the votes keep going like this, that'd be great news for AZ Dems and National Dems for 2020 and beyond.

Not to mention a Democrat winning Superintendent of Public Instruction and another hopefully getting a seat on the Corporation Commission.

[lfromnj]

is there anyone besides Ducey or Mcsally moderate enough to win Az 2020?

It looks like AZ will be a moderate hero state as it trends democrat.
 

[adma]

So much for the most conservative generation in American history

ikr? If anything, they are getting more Democratic/left-leaning. 18-24 year olds continue to be the strongest age cohort for Democrats, when they vote, anyway.

I think that "most conservative generation" remark was meant sarcastically.

(Though ironically these days, Dem/left-leaning *might as well* reflect something "conservative"--in the non-political, "sensible" sense: Ocasio-Cortez as the polar opposite of the excesses of Trump, Kavanaugh, Roy Moore et al.)

Yea, the Nazi generation thing was a joke, but there was a serious argument that "generation z" or whatever it is being called was going to be more conservative than Millennials. People even cited dubious studies from the UK. But, I guess to be fair, "more conservative" doesn't mean Republican-leaning. It just means less Democratic-leaning than Millennials.

Either way, that's not the case so far. Whenever it does become the case, it will be hard to miss.

Not even "less Dem-leaning", necessarily.  I think what it really is, is a wishful misreading of "more conservative"--that is, it doesn't mean less Dem-leaning, so much as it means less likely to be drunken/rapey in college a la Kavanaugh.  Which might, in fact, reflexively mean *more* Dem-leaning in an era when the GOP's become the party of radicalism and wretched excess in the self-styled guise of "conservativism"...

[henster]

Even the Sinema camp was conceding batch B was R+10 and the McSally camp confirmed it per Vaughn Hillyard tweet. And the theory of the batch being more favorable to her was confirmed by today's dump as it was much less than previous which were from batch A.

[lfromnj]

AZ-SOS is gonna flip Dem if the votes keep going like this, that'd be great news for AZ Dems and National Dems for 2020 and beyond.

Not to mention a Democrat winning Superintendent of Public Instruction and another hopefully getting a seat on the Corporation Commission.

SOS is by far the biggest downballot prize. Becomes Gov if Ducey leaves

yeah that basically gives them the 2020 senate seat too as I don't think a loser will run again after they lost in a light red state(beto has the excuse of making a great margin) so ducey will not let the governor become a democrat.