Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[lfromnj]

Looks like Democrats will have a 45-8 majority in the CA congressional delegation and an 11-1 majority in the NJ congressional delegation. Pretty impressive consolidation of federal representation in these two states.

Probably going 46-7 in 2020. Im honestly shocked with the burb stomping that Hunter didn't go down or atleast come closer and that Mcmurray came closer than najjar most likely.

The only R who might lose in CA in 2020 is Valadao. Hunter will probably be forced out at some point (whether a retirement in 2020, failing to make the top two in the primary to an R challenger or resignation before then), but he won’t lose reelection to a Democrat. That district is not there yet for the Dems.

I meant Valadao only. But I expected Hunter to lose when I saw the early house results

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Well either McSally (likeliest) or Sinema are going to run in 2020 for senator again. That's clear. If you're so close, you'll definitely try again.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

When does California start updating their results?  I've been trying to follow CA-10, but it doesn't seem like the results have changed since election night.

[Gass3268]

When does California start updating their results?  I've been trying to follow CA-10, but it doesn't seem like the results have changed since election night.

It varies, I know there is going to be another Orange County update at 5pm PT.

[Oryxslayer]

Well either McSally (likeliest) or Sinema are going to run in 2020 for senator again. That's clear. If you're so close, you'll definitely try again.

Yeah, McSally's close margin definitly puts her on the shortlist if Kyl decides to retire during lame duck like some rumors have. Might make the AZ delegation a little weird.

[CellarDoor]

Well either McSally (likeliest) or Sinema are going to run in 2020 for senator again. That's clear. If you're so close, you'll definitely try again.

There's a decent chance that both McSally and Sinema are senators after this year.  Some folks been saying that if McSally loses, Senator Kyl will resign so that Governor Ducey can pick McSally as his replacement.  I heard that a while ago, but it wouldn't surprise me.  I don't think McSally would fare well in a 2020 campaign though.

[lfromnj]

Well either McSally (likeliest) or Sinema are going to run in 2020 for senator again. That's clear. If you're so close, you'll definitely try again.

McSally has no excuse for losing though when R’s are winning Gov by 16% and the GCB in the state by 2%. I don’t think that her underperformance against the pink tutu Prada socialist will win her favors from the R horde

is there anyone else besides Ducey himself who can run?
Sweichkert -Ethics
Higgs-IDk he doesn't seem like the type to go up.
Lesko- Horrible candidate barely beat Tiperneni by 4 in the special election even with massive R advantage.

Gosar- Ah the family ads are gonna be great. He is gonna get rekt as well. Idk about the rest of Arizona's bench.

[jdk]

Well either McSally (likeliest) or Sinema are going to run in 2020 for senator again. That's clear. If you're so close, you'll definitely try again.

If McSally loses, I have a feeling you're going to be seeing a lot of Trumpists and right wing pundits (when they're not making false claims of voter fraud) claiming that they lost the election because they ran an "establishment" Republican instead of someone like Kelli Ward or Joe Arpaio and they'll nominate someone like that next time around... We saw that last year in Virginia when they were saying that they should have nominated Corey Stewart instead of Ed Gillespie which lead to Stewart being their senate nom this year

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Well either McSally (likeliest) or Sinema are going to run in 2020 for senator again. That's clear. If you're so close, you'll definitely try again.

There's a decent chance that both McSally and Sinema are senators after this year.  Some folks been saying that if McSally loses, Senator Kyl will resign so that Governor Ducey can pick McSally as his replacement.  I heard that a while ago, but it wouldn't surprise me.  I don't think McSally would fare well in a 2020 campaign though.

I agree with this, and I don't think the GOP will view her as a particularly strong candidate either if she ends up losing this race, which is almost certain at this point. Sinema wasn't a weak candidate but wasn't exactly some god-tier recruit either, so if 2020 has a comparable national environment to 2018 and a decent Democratic presidential nominee, someone like Stanton should probably be favored.

[pppolitics]

Well either McSally (likeliest) or Sinema are going to run in 2020 for senator again. That's clear. If you're so close, you'll definitely try again.

If McSally loses, I have a feeling you're going to be seeing a lot of Trumpists and right wing pundits (when they're not making false claims of voter fraud) claiming that they lost the election because they ran an "establishment" Republican instead of someone like Kelli Ward and Joe Arpaio and they'll nominate someone like that next time around... We saw that last year in Virginia when they were saying that they should have nominated Corey Stewart instead of Ed Gillespie which lead to Stewart being their senate nom this year

Ann Kirkpatrick vs Chemtrail Kelli

Let's go!

popcorn

[Oryxslayer]

Oh BTW to any Mod reading, can you create a sticky thread for the Florida recount. The thread is already huge and half the chatter is Florida related because there is no clear place to talk about the crisis there.

[lfromnj]

Arizona rep bench sucks congresionally coz they hold 0/3 moderate districts.

[pppolitics]

Oh BTW to any Mod reading, can you create a sticky thread for the Florida recount. The thread is already huge and half the chatter is Florida related because there is no clear place to talk about the crisis there.

Here is the discussion thread:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=306430.0

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061035638751866880

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061035293350850560

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061035638751866880

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061035293350850560

Sinema now up 9,101 statewide. I don't think Maricopa's next update will be friendly to McSally.

[CellarDoor]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061035638751866880

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061035293350850560

Sinema did very well in that last Yuma update.  She got almost 60% of the votes.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I don’t think the remaining votes in Maricopa will be as friendly for McSally as many expect. Advantage Sinema, I’d give her a 70% chance of winning at this point.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Why Angela, WHY.

[Dr. Arch]

Why Angela, WHY.

?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Why Angela, WHY.

Simple. Republican plant.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061039240832679938

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061039094661242880

[Chief Justice Keef]

Why Angela, WHY.

Simple. Republican plant.

If she was a Republican plant she wouldn't have dropped out before the election.

Green Party people are just naive, that's all.

[CellarDoor]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061039240832679938

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061039094661242880

Sinema won 70.8% of these votes.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061035638751866880

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061035293350850560

Sinema did very well in that last Yuma update.  She got almost 60% of the votes.

And McSally is 53-44 in Yuma 0_0

[CellarDoor]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061035638751866880

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061035293350850560

Sinema did very well in that last Yuma update.  She got almost 60% of the votes.

And McSally is 53-44 in Yuma 0_0

With the exception of one Apache update so far, Sinema has outperformed in all county vote drops today.