Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[MT Treasurer]

Wait, Nelson could seriously still win?!

I thought this was quite obvious.

Anyway, the trend here should worry Rick Scott, especially since Democrats always win ultra-tight Senate races for some reason.

[lfromnj]

If nelson and sinema win im willing to call it a blue wave.

[Dr. Arch]

Wait, Nelson could seriously still win?!

I thought this was quite obvious.

Anyway, the trend here should wory Rick Scott, especially since Democrats always win ultra-tight Senate races for some reason.

The late absentees and provisionals are almost always heavily D.

If nelson and sinema win im willing to call it a blue wave.

This + GA gov runoff + >230 seats, and I'll run with it.

[Snipee356]

Is there any chance for Dems in CA10/39/45? All the other uncalled races seem to be ticking towards Dems.

[Webnicz]

so the "swing state" of nevada has a congressional delegation of one republican lol

[Dr. Arch]

so the "swing state" of nevada has a congressional delegation of one republican lol

Seems to be solidly there to stay too. NV is going the way of CO at this rate, and CO has sort of plateaued, but it's still moving left. It'll probably become the next NM soon enough (two to three cycles).

[Sestak]

Is there any chance for Dems in CA10/39/45? All the other uncalled races seem to be ticking towards Dems.

Harder(D) might actually still be favored in CA-10. Late/absentee usually leans quite a bit Dem in CA.

39 and 45 are tougher.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Is there any chance for Dems in CA10/39/45? All the other uncalled races seem to be ticking towards Dems.

Harder(D) might actually still be favored in CA-10. Late/absentee usually leans quite a bit Dem in CA.

39 and 45 are tougher.

I was shocked when I saw that total votes were barely above 110 thousand in Denham's district. There must be at least as much as that left to count.

[Snipee356]

If CA-39 doesn't switch, hopefully Dems nominate someone better than a Republican lottery winner in 2020.

[IceSpear]

so the "swing state" of nevada has a congressional delegation of one republican lol

And "safe R" Amodei won by about the same margin as "toss up" Susie Lee, lol.

Why the pundits were moronic enough to think perennial loser Danny Tarkanian of all people had a chance at winning a Democratic held district in a Democratic year...I will never know.

[Xing]

The gap still looks a bit too wide for Nelson, but if there are a lot more votes to be counted, he may actually have a chance. I'd want to see how much is actually left out, and where it is.

Anyway, I'm happy to see that more posters are joining the "NV is not a Toss-Up" club.

[America Needs R'hllor]

If CA-39 doesn't switch, hopefully Dems nominate someone better than a Republican lottery winner in 2020.

I'd rather have Kim win there at this point tbh. A lottery winner is not what anyone needs.

[Landslide Lyndon]

so the "swing state" of nevada has a congressional delegation of one republican lol

And "safe R" Amodei won by about the same margin as "toss up" Susie Lee, lol.

Why the pundits were moronic enough to think perennial loser Danny Tarkanian of all people had a chance at winning a Democratic held district in a Democratic year...I will never know.

Technically it was a Trump district.

[IceSpear]

Looks like Williams will end up doing better than Quist after all.

RATINGS CHANGE: Montana: #Populist -> Neoliberal Shill

[lfromnj]

Looks like Williams will end up doing better than Quist after all.

RATINGS CHANGE: Montana: #Populist -> Neoliberal Shill

GALLATIN COUNTY

[Snipee356]

I'd rather have Kim win there at this point tbh. A lottery winner is not what anyone needs.

Too bad Kim has the typical Asian homophobe mentality...

[America Needs R'hllor]

I'd rather have Kim win there at this point tbh. A lottery winner is not what anyone needs.

Too bad Kim has the typical Asian homophobe mentality...

At least she doesn't have the typical racist mentality.

[Snipee356]

I'd rather have Kim win there at this point tbh. A lottery winner is not what anyone needs.

Too bad Kim has the typical Asian homophobe mentality...

At least she doesn't have the typical racist mentality.

Oops I didn't mean it like that. I should have phrased it better. What I mean is that her attitude towards the LGBT community reminds me of that of many older-generation traditional Asian parents that being gay is a fad 'lifestyle' that is an affront to their family and societal structure and that transgender people have a mental illness and shouldn't be accepted. I'm a gay Asian in a similar situation so I know what I'm talking about. Sorry for the misunderstanding.

[America Needs R'hllor]

I'd rather have Kim win there at this point tbh. A lottery winner is not what anyone needs.

Too bad Kim has the typical Asian homophobe mentality...

At least she doesn't have the typical racist mentality.

Oops I didn't mean it like that. I should have phrased it better. What I mean is that her attitude towards the LGBT community reminds me of that of many older-generation traditional Asian parents that being gay is a fad 'lifestyle' that is an affront to their family and societal structure and that transgender people have a mental illness and shouldn't be accepted. I'm a gay Asian in a similar situation so I know what I'm talking about. Sorry for the misunderstanding.

Oh, I see, thanks for the clarification
Anyway, I'm all for beating her in 2020, but I just find the concept of a 'some dude' being elected to the House thanks to a lottery prize quite frustrating. I wouldn't mind if he wins and pads our majority more, but at this point, I have no problem conceding this race.

[SPQR]

Unexpected win in NM-02, given what was left to count.

In the meanwhile, NYT has called WA-03. Maybe a tad premature?

[MillennialModerate]

Wait, Nelson could seriously still win?!

I thought this was quite obvious.

Anyway, the trend here should worry Rick Scott, especially since Democrats always win ultra-tight Senate races for some reason.

I know I’ve been a little pessimistic and have been wrong on some things but does anyone seriously think that Bill Nelson has a snowballs chance in hell. All the votes are counted?...

[IceSpear]

Wait, Nelson could seriously still win?!

I thought this was quite obvious.

Anyway, the trend here should worry Rick Scott, especially since Democrats always win ultra-tight Senate races for some reason.

I know I’ve been a little pessimistic and have been wrong on some things but does anyone seriously think that Bill Nelson has a snowballs chance in hell. All the votes are counted?...

Just because the news sites say "100% in" doesn't mean all the votes have been counted. Despite being "100% in" it went from 50.4-49.6 to 50.2-49.8 and now to 50.1-49.9. Nobody is exactly sure how many votes are left to count.

[Badger]

Andy Kim officially took the lead.

Nice! 11-1!

Even Chris Smith got a far closer race than he's used to. It's amazing NJ Dems managed to do so well despite Menendez's toxicity.

Big failure by Van Drew to barely win by 5 in a so called Safe Seat. Like ik pundits aren't the best but I generally do take their calls on the safe seats.

The thing here is that this is the kind of district Dems have tanked in since 2012. It’s not metropolitan at all. I attribute the closeness to the fundamentals. The district was safe because Van Drew was supposed to be unbeatable titanium and the Republican was horrible, but it turns out VD wasn’t such a Superman.

Im still annoyed that the reps spent millions against Sherril only to lose by 12 and then gave up 3 days after the primary for Van Drew.

You shouldn't be. Van Drew's opponent is more of an abominable embarrassment than Trump, and that's saying a lot.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Andy Kim officially took the lead.

Nice! 11-1!

Even Chris Smith got a far closer race than he's used to. It's amazing NJ Dems managed to do so well despite Menendez's toxicity.

Big failure by Van Drew to barely win by 5 in a so called Safe Seat. Like ik pundits aren't the best but I generally do take their calls on the safe seats.

The thing here is that this is the kind of district Dems have tanked in since 2012. It’s not metropolitan at all. I attribute the closeness to the fundamentals. The district was safe because Van Drew was supposed to be unbeatable titanium and the Republican was horrible, but it turns out VD wasn’t such a Superman.

Im still annoyed that the reps spent millions against Sherril only to lose by 12 and then gave up 3 days after the primary for Van Drew.

You shouldn't be. Van Drew's opponent is more of an abominable embarrassment than Trump, and that's saying a lot.

How else can you call the people who voted for Grossmann other than deplorables?
And  of course pundits will accuse Democrats that they don't do enough to reach out to them.

[Badger]

I'd rather have Kim win there at this point tbh. A lottery winner is not what anyone needs.

Too bad Kim has the typical Asian homophobe mentality...

At least she doesn't have the typical racist mentality.

Oops I didn't mean it like that. I should have phrased it better. What I mean is that her attitude towards the LGBT community reminds me of that of many older-generation traditional Asian parents that being gay is a fad 'lifestyle' that is an affront to their family and societal structure and that transgender people have a mental illness and shouldn't be accepted. I'm a gay Asian in a similar situation so I know what I'm talking about. Sorry for the misunderstanding.

Oh, I see, thanks for the clarification
Anyway, I'm all for beating her in 2020, but I just find the concept of a 'some dude' being elected to the House thanks to a lottery prize quite frustrating. I wouldn't mind if he wins and pads our majority more, but at this point, I have no problem conceding this race.

Now. Considering her choices between some guy who will vote against Trump 90-plus percent of Time Versus someone who will support him 95-plus percent of the time, and is a nasty religious right homophobe the boot, I don't care that much if Cisneros one despite his obvious failings. He's not under indictment or otherwise corrupt, he's just meh. I'll take meh at votes the right way over someone like him any day of the week and twice on Tuesday. And that includes beating her now and keeping her out of Congress for the next two years rather than saying oh well next time.

I said it before and I'll say it again. Democrats need to get the same eye of the tiger Republicans do. It's not just a matter of execution, but also a matter of public perception that the Democrats lags spine and can't pull the trigger when needed. How will voters trust Democrats to stand up for them if they are perceived as not standing up for themselves?