Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Woody]

I could just imagine what'd happen on Atlas if tonight goes as 2016 did and Republicans overperform expectations, denying Democrats the House and making net gains in the Senate.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Does anyone have county level results for KY-06? We need to see what counties the results there are coming from.

[GMantis]

Early returns for Braun show him very close to Young in 2016.

Mostly in the counties around Braun State Senate district where he should have the advantage.

[wbrocks67]

Donnelly keeping it way closer than Trump. Bartholomew County, down not even 10. Trump won by over 30. Needs to keep it close in places like this.

Meanwhile, this returns are going at a snails place.

[TheBeardedOne]

Why is this forum so dead? this thread as well as the Open Gubernatorial one is slow. Whats the deal?

[Pericles]

538 now rates Braun as 51-49 favorite. Their forecast had Donnelly favored with a 7 in 10 chance.

[wbrocks67]

Trumps approval 52/48 in IN. However, 30% went to support Trump. 34% of voters went to oppose him.

[JA]

My guess is Rs are going to do well in rural areas where Trump did well. That is not exactly a surprise, but might mean bad things for various districts like KS-02, MN-01, etc. The best Dem hope at the moment is going to have to be on the suburbs. And we don't really have anything in from those sorts of areas yet.

Violently agree.

The results will be more polarizing than people expect.

That's what I'm thinking as well. The geographic and demographic polarization and political trends we witnessed in 2016 could very well be solidified and expanded upon during this midterm election. That wouldn't bode well for any hope of greater civility in politics. It'd also mean Democrats will have a harder time retaking the Senate and winning the EV College vote, despite almost certainly winning the PV in the future (I say *harder*, but not impossible).

[libertpaulian]

Bartholomew County about 40% in, Braun up by 9 points

Young beat Bayh here by 24

Mourdock was up by a 7-8%ish margin.

[Woody]

Donnelly is doomed.

[Oryxslayer]

There is Lexington.

[KingSweden]

Bartholomew County about 40% in, Braun up by 9 points

Young beat Bayh here by 24

Fun fact, that’s Pence’s home county

[gf20202]

Trump at 52/48 in IN according to exits.

Trump was at 50/48 in the Fox News Poll that had Donnelly up 7.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-indiana-senate-poll-10-31-2018

[TheBeardedOne]

Where are all of you people getting live updates? NYT site isn't showing me anything. Neither is 538

[Skye]

Why is this forum so dead? this thread as well as the Open Gubernatorial one is slow. Whats the deal?

Like nothing has come in. Just a few precincts in IN and KY, so relax. We've even had meltdowns.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

First results aren't that good, but just stay calm... . I had expected that Indiana would be closer than what people did expect. It's early, and we haven't got numbers in from suburban and urban cities in. That rural voters would turn out in massive numbers and increase was a trend that we have already seen and nothing new.

[Mr. Smith]

I think I'm bowing out of this until at least 10% of precincts are in...this is too stressful right now and I do have some homework to finish.

[Storr]

Where are all of you people getting live updates? NYT site isn't showing me anything. Neither is 538

Politico

[The Free North]

The slow leak of rural Indiana results while we all wait for the other polls to close.....

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Bartholomew County about 40% in, Braun up by 9 points

Young beat Bayh here by 24

Mourdock won there by about 8 points in 2012, so that seems like an acceptable result for Donnelly.

[NeederNodder]

Why is this forum so dead? this thread as well as the Open Gubernatorial one is slow. Whats the deal?

The site is overall slow for me

[Horus]

McGrath now down only 3 points with a whopping 1% of returns in.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Donnelly leading in Vermillion County, with 1/17 precincts in. Lucy Brenton is in second place, with 40%, to 48% for Donnelly and 11% for Braun.

[Pyro]

Donnelly's leading in a county!

[Crumpets]

Donnelly up in Vermillion - Clinton got under 30% here.