Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Panda Express]

The Freiwal keeps growing in Clark County!

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1059925165751103489

I feel like a kid on Christmas Eve! Except replace Santa with Sen. Rosen.

Wouldn't Jon Ralston be Santa and Sen. Rosen would be the presents?

[USO2019PB]

Exit Polls

Approve: 44%
Disapprove: 55%

That’s not that bad for Republicans, considering that his approvals were in the 30s last year, IMHO.

[john cage bubblegum]

The early exit poll data looks pretty decent for Dems, but heavy heavy caution, as it is early exit poll data.  Trump at -11 net approval, with 31% strongly approving and 47% strongly disapproving.

[Hindsight was 2020]

High turnout in Miami-Dade https://mobile.twitter.com/lizroldancbs4/status/1059914759645155329

[IceSpear]

Exit Polls

Approve: 44%
Disapprove: 55%

Republicans are in for a beating if that's accurate, but I've learned better than to trust early exit polls.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I bless the rains down in Novvaaa

[Boobs]

Democrats HOLD Guam-At Large.

What is the swing from 2014/2016 though?

Incumbent Bordallo was successfully primaried this year.

2016:
Bordallo* (D): 18,345
Camacho (R): 15,617

2014:
Bordallo* (D): 20,550
Metcalfe (R): 14,866

[Woody]

OMG, please Florida, elect Scott!

[DaWN]

Oh for the election to be over here where the exit polls are nice and accurate.

Anyway, not good news for the GOP if they are accurate, but a trainload of salt is required.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I think exit polls are pretty much in line what expectations were.

[afleitch]

For comparison, Obama approval was 44% to 55% disapproval in 2014. So similar split.

[Adam Griffin]

This is pretty big (was 10% in 2016):

[henster]

How much did the exit poll shift in '16, could see it going up to 53/46 or 52/47 at the end of the night.

[bilaps]

Comparing Trump's approval with generic ballot, it could be D+8 or even higher.

[pppolitics]

OMG, please Florida, elect Scott!

You mean, Gov. Medicare Fraud

[Mr. Morden]

I remember in 2004 the people on FOX were talking about how Bush just couldn't close to deal on being re-elected. That was at about 5:55.

And in 2004, the exit polls were overly optimistic for Dems and were predicting Kerry would win. But of course, it didn't work out that way when the actual #s came in. So that illustrates both that the coverage is colored by early exit polls, but also that the exit polls can be wrong.

2004 was back in the era when the exit polls started leaking around noon eastern time, so they were *very* early and incomplete.  After that fiasco, they reformed their practices, and don't release any exit poll data until 5pm.

[ag]

Democrats HOLD Guam-At Large.

What is the swing from 2014/2016 though?

It was
DEM 18,345
REP 15,617 back in 2016

So, the swing is in favor of DEMs, though not large. But the Dem candidate defeated a long-time incumbent in the primary this time, so this is impressive for a new candidate.

The governorship is a pick-up for Dems though.

[Oryxslayer]

Oh for the election to be over here where the exit polls are nice and accurate.

Anyway, not good news for the GOP if they are accurate, but a trainload of salt is required.

> UK Exit Polls
> Accurate

I see you Conveniently forget 2015

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Exit Polls

Approve: 44%
Disapprove: 55%

Meh, Trump is such a disgrace, that he should be in the 20's.

[DaWN]

Oh for the election to be over here where the exit polls are nice and accurate.

Anyway, not good news for the GOP if they are accurate, but a trainload of salt is required.

> UK Exit Polls
> Accurate
> Conveniently forgetting 2015

2015 was not perfect, but it was certainly within a fairly reasonable margin of error and told a very different story than the public polls which ended up defining the night. A Tory majority was definitely seen as possible after it came out.

And I did mean compared to the US rather than in general lol

[Oryxslayer]

Exit Poll:  Vote today was to…
  Support Trump 26
  Oppose Trump 39
  Trump not a factor 33
   
2010
  Support Obama 23
  Oppose Obama 37
  Obama not a factor 38
   
2006
  Support Bush 22
  Oppose Bush 36
  Bush not a factor 39

[IceSpear]

Exit Polls

Approve: 44%
Disapprove: 55%

That’s not that bad for Republicans, considering that his approvals were in the 30s last year, IMHO.

Uh, he wasn't even in the 30s in Virginia last year, and Virginia is to the left of the country as a whole.

[Virginiá]

We will probably need a second and a third thread later, if AL-Sen is any guide. Thats if the forum doesn't crash OFC

True. I think Dave is waiting to see if any other mitigations other than what was done behind the scenes so far are actually necessary, so it's probable the site starts to lock up at least a few times.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I am cautiously optimistic (really pretty optimistic, but I am saying cautious just because of 2016 trauma) about the Trump approval early exits. We should also remember that while they could overestimate Dems, they could also underestimate them. And if they do, we could have a really huge wave. OTOH I think if they underestimate, it will probably still be enough to take the House.

[Yank2133]

Exit Polls

Approve: 44%
Disapprove: 55%

That’s not that bad for Republicans, considering that his approvals were in the 30s last year, IMHO.

Uh, he wasn't even in the 30s in Virginia last year, and Virginia is to the left of the country as a whole.

Yeah, he was at 43% here in VA.