Midterm predictions: One Day Out

[MassTerp94]

With one day left, here are my educated predictions on the final outcome tomorrow:

House:

Democrats take back the House with a SMALL majority. I'm thinking somehwere around 225 Dems-210 GOP.

Senate:

Arizona: Martha McSally within one point.
Florida: Bill Nelson holds onto his seat by a somewhat comfortable margin of around 5 points.
Indiana: Joe Donnelly holds onto his seat but just barely.
Minnesota special: Tina Smith retains her seat by 5-10 points.
Missouri: Another Dem hold, Claire McCaskill holds onto her seat with a margin of less than one percent.
Montana: Jon Tester fends off a challenge from Matt Rosendale thanks to his personal popularity with a margin of about 5 points.
North Dakota: A definite win for the GOP candidate, Rep. Kevin Cramer by at least ten points.
New Jersey: Bob Menendez manages to hold onto his seat, but only with about a 2-3 point margin.
Nevada: GOP Sen. Dean Heller keeps his seat by about a 2-3 point margin.
Tennessee: Phil Bredesen wins by a point.
Texas: I predict this will be the night's major upset and O'Rourke will defeat Ted Cruz thanks to the massive surge in the youth and Latino vote and independents. It will swing back and forth throughout the night and will be called after midnight, with O'Rourke winning by one point or less.

Final count: 50-50. Mike Pence casts the tiebreaking vote as President of the Senate, therefore GOP maintains control.


Governors:

Florida: Andrew Gillum by about four points.
Georgia: Stacey Abrams by about two points.
Wisconsin: Tony Evers by about six points.

[Woody]

With one day left, here are my educated predictions on the final outcome tomorrow:

House:

Democrats take back the House with a SMALL majority. I'm thinking somehwere around 225 Dems-210 GOP.

Senate:

Arizona: Martha McSally within one point.
Florida: Bill Nelson holds onto his seat by a somewhat comfortable margin of around 5 points.
Indiana: Joe Donnelly holds onto his seat but just barely.
Minnesota special: Tina Smith retains her seat by 5-10 points.
Missouri: Another Dem hold, Claire McCaskill holds onto her seat with a margin of less than one percent.
Montana: Jon Tester fends off a challenge from Matt Rosendale thanks to his personal popularity with a margin of about 5 points.
North Dakota: A definite win for the GOP candidate, Rep. Kevin Cramer by at least ten points.
New Jersey: Bob Menendez manages to hold onto his seat, but only with about a 2-3 point margin.
Nevada: GOP Sen. Dean Heller keeps his seat by about a 2-3 point margin.
Tennessee: Phil Bredesen wins by a point.
Texas: I predict this will be the night's major upset and O'Rourke will defeat Ted Cruz thanks to the massive surge in the youth and Latino vote and independents. It will swing back and forth throughout the night and will be called after midnight, with O'Rourke winning by one point or less.

Final count: 50-50. Mike Pence casts the tiebreaking vote as President of the Senate, therefore GOP maintains control.


Governors:

Florida: Andrew Gillum by about four points.
Georgia: Stacey Abrams by about two points.
Wisconsin: Tony Evers by about six points.

You got some courage posting those predictions here, I'll give you that.

[ON Progressive]

Dems winning Missouri, Indiana, and Tennessee while losing Nevada and Arizona is a classic Atlas stupid prediction.

Ask yourself this: why on earth would Dems win in three states where Trump won by double digits yet lose in a Clinton state and a 3 point Trump state?

[DabbingSanta]

Dems winning Missouri, Indiana, and Tennessee while losing Nevada and Arizona is a classic Atlas stupid prediction.

Ask yourself this: why on earth would Dems win in three states where Trump won by double digits yet lose in a Clinton state and a 3 point Trump state?

Yes! If Dems carry Tennessee and/or Texas, they aren't losing Nevada or Arizona.

[😥]

House:

Democratic: 232
Republican: 203

Senate:

Arizona: Kyrsten Sinema +3 (FLIP)
Florida: Bill Nelson +4
Indiana: Joe Donnelly +3
Minnesota special: Tina Smith +9
Missouri: Claire McCaskill +1
Montana: Jon Tester +6
North Dakota: Kevin Cramer +6 (FLIP)
New Jersey: Bob Menendez +7
Nevada: Jacky Rosen +2 (FLIP)
Tennessee: Phil Bredesen +1 (FLIP)
Texas: Ted Cruz +3

Democratic: 51
Republican: 49


Governors:

Alaska: Mark Begich +1
Florida: Andrew Gillum +4
Georgia: Stacey Abrams +1
Iowa: Fred Hubbell +3
Kansas: Laura Kelly +2
Maine: Janet Mills +5
Nevada: Steve Sisolak +2
Ohio: Richard Cordray +2
South Dakota: Kristi Noem +1
Wisconsin: Tony Evers +4

[here2view]

House: Democrats +33
Senate: No change

House: 228-207 Democrats
Senate: 51-49 GOP
(GOP gains ND and MO, Dems gain NV and AZ)

[President Johnson]

This is my final predictions on races I'm confident enough:


House

Democrats: 228, Republicans 207


Key senate races

Arizona
✓ Sinema: 50.1%
McSally: 47.2%

Nevada
✓ Rosen: 48.8%
Heller (inc.): 46.5%

North Dakota
✓ Cramer: 53.4%
Heitkamp (inc.): 46.6%

Missouri
✓ McCaskill (inc.): 49.5%
Hawley: 48.7%

Indiana
✓ Donnelly (inc.): 51.0%
Braun: 45.7%

Montana
✓ Tester (inc.): 52.9%
Rosendale: 44.9%

Florida
✓ Nelson (inc.): 51.3%
Scott: 48.0%

West Virginia
✓ Manchin (inc.): 53.2%
Morrisey: 45.0%

Tennessee
✓ Blackburn: 52.1%
Bredesen: 46.3%

Texas
✓ Cruz (inc.): 51.2%
O'Rourke: 47.0%

New Jersey
✓ Menendez (inc.): 54.0%
Hugin: 44.7%

-> 50/50 senate


Key governor races:

Florida
✓ Gillum: 51.3%
DeSantis: 46.8%

Georgia
✓ Kemp: 50.3%
Abrams: 47.9%

New York
✓ Cuomo (inc.): 60.4%
Molinaro: 37.1%

California
✓ Newsom: 61.8%
Cox: 38.2%

Oregon
✓ Brown (inc.): 51.7%
Buehler: 46.0%

Nevada
✓ Sisolak: 49.0%
Laxalt: 47.5%

New Mexico
✓ Grisham: 54.7%
Morrisey: 44.6%

Colorado
✓ Polis: 53.3%
Stapleton: 43.4%

Iowa
✓ Hubbell: 50.3%
Reynolds (inc.): 47.4%

Illinois
✓ Pritzker: 54.2%
Rauner (inc.): 38.8%

Michigan
✓ Whitmer: 54.4%
Schuette: 45.1%

Ohio
✓ Cordray: 49.7%
DeWine: 49.0%

Connecticut
✓ Lamont: 51.3%
Stefanowski: 45.4%

Massachusetts
✓ Baker (inc.): 68.6%
Gonzalez: 30.3%

[The Vorlon]

Alternate Reality One (45% probability)

     Dems take House 231-204, Senate is 52/48

Alternate Reality Two (30% probability)

     Dems take house 246 - 189, Senate is 50/50

Alternate Reality Three