🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level) (user search)
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  🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level) (search mode)
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Author Topic: 🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)  (Read 216578 times)
MRCVzla
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« on: May 04, 2021, 10:17:21 AM »

I'd be interested to see some sort of constituency projection. I'm not interested in individual constituencies but just the regional trends and where the Greens get their seats, including their performance in the former east.

As they saying above, Election.de does a constituency projection map based on average polls, they update periodically: http://www.election.de/cgi-bin/showforecast_btw21.pl?

Also pollster INSA does one based on their own weekly polling: https://www.insa-consulere.de/insa-wahlkreiskarte/
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MRCVzla
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« Reply #1 on: October 12, 2021, 04:28:14 AM »

Is there any place where I could see how the math worked in this election for the Party list seats?

I found a PDF file of the Bundeswahlleiter with the step-by-step math process of calculating seats with the preliminary results of this year' election (probably a new file will be done with the final results): https://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/dam/jcr/bf33c285-ee92-455a-a9c3-8d4e3a1ee4b4/btw21_sitzberechnung.pdf

The file I found in a site related to the elections of the Bundestag of the state of Baden-Württemberg (in german): https://www.bundestagswahl-bw.de/sitzberechnung-btw
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MRCVzla
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« Reply #2 on: October 17, 2021, 03:55:58 AM »

On Friday, the final official result will be announced, and some minor changes that affect the seat distribution could happen by then. By then, all re-counts and possible irregularities have to be completed - In Germany, there is no real "law" mandating a recount, but rather a general check of results by the respective authorities, for instance if a party performed disproportionally well in one precinct while another did extremely bad. Such mistakes can happen, for instance if ballots were switched by accident when counting, but they have rarely ever had any impact on the final outcome.

- In the constituency of Munich West, the final result has been announced, and CSU retains that seat by 137 votes (the preliminary results had the CSU ahead by 146 votes). If the Greens had gained that seat instead of the CSU, the Bundestag would have shrunken from 735 to 716 seats thanks to the complicated leveling calculations and the CSU running as a distinct party, which complicates the seat compensation.
- CDU was 738 votes away from gaining another seat, and with most vote tallies completed, it seems like they made it (one county seemed to have report problems, but the precinct results have been added since in the final vote tally) by a comfortable amount of votes - Hence, the Bundestag size will probably increase to 736.
- One seat of the Greens flips from NRW's to Bavaria's list.

Just to reconfirm since a few days ago the Bundeswahlleiter has released the final results, the final size of the Bundestag is 736 as CDU wins another list seat in NRW, also is confirmed the already mentioned Greens' seat flip.

Full report in German with detailed results and seat calculation process updated (PDF): https://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/dam/jcr/cbceef6c-19ec-437b-a894-3611be8ae886/btw21_heft3.pdf
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