🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Tender Branson]

The old thread is getting too big and needs to be locked and retired.

I'll start:

CSU-FW have agreed to form a coalition in Bavaria after the state election. Their party committees will agree the coalition contract today, which will be presented tomorrow.

https://www.dw.com/en/merkels-bavarian-csu-allies-reach-coalition-with-free-voters/a-46139039

[Tender Branson]

First poll (Emnid) for the coming CDU leadership election:

"Who do you want as new CDU-leader (CDU-voters only) ?"

44% Fritz Merz
39% Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer
  9% Jens Spahn

Among all German voters, it's 38-27-13.

"Do you regret the resignation of Angela Merkel as CDU-leader (CDU-voters only) ?"

54% Yes, regret it
46% No, don't regret it

Among all German voters, only 28% regret it while 68% do not regret it.

Link

[Tender Branson]

Why have the Greens been surging recently?

The voters have been suffering from suffering from fatigue of the "grand" coalition, the very hot and arid summer, plus the dieselgate scandal, where the government rallies behind Volkswagen, which has been pulling the consumers' legs.

+ the Hambach Forest occupation movement, which was also helping their cause.

https://www.dw.com/en/opinion-hambach-forest-a-battlefield-for-the-planets-future/a-45840465

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-thousands-protest-to-save-hambach-forest/a-46060826

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/protesters-in-germany-block-tracks-to-disputed-coal-mine/2018/10/27/213adc1a-d9e9-11e8-8384-bcc5492fef49_story.html

[Tender Branson]

New ZDF poll:



"I find it good that ... Merkel steps down as CDU-leader soon (left) & Merkel remains Chancellor until 2021 (right)":



"Who should become the new CDU leader ? (all voters)"



"Who should become the new CDU leader ? (CDU/CSU voters only)"



"Are (...) qualified or unqualified as future Chancellor of Germany ?"

[Tender Branson]

The Green Governor of Baden-Württemberg (11 million people) said the following today:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Link

Amazing.

Exactly my thoughts as well.

[Tender Branson]

Notice the difference between Germany and Austria here:

When Austria had a dysfunctional so-called "Grand" Coalition between the conservative ÖVP and Social Democrats, their disaffected voters also went to the Greens and the liberal NEOS - but in a much lower share than the disaffected voters went to the far-right FPÖ.

In Germany it's the other way around now: While the AfD gains only moderately and FDP and Left basically nothing from disaffected former "Grand" Coalition voters, the Greens gain strongly. Basically, the German center is made up of more center-left leaning loan voters, while the Austrian center is made up of more center-right leaning loan voters who back the Grand Coalition parties in good times.

[Tender Branson]

New CDU-leader (Emnid/BamS poll among all voters):

[Tender Branson]

When things go from bad to worse:

Yesterday, the Merkel plane had a technical problem while Vice-Chancellor Scholz‘s home was vandalized by unknown people.

Symptomatic of Germany‘s problems right now ...

[Tender Branson]

Looks like the Green surge is over for now.

The prospect of Merkel leaving and a new CDU leadership soon will mean some new Green voters (= ex-CDU voters) will come back soon.

[Tender Branson]

Merkel has slipped into 3rd place in the SPIEGEL popularity ranking of major German politicians (= Kantar Public poll) and she was overtaken by AKK:

[Tender Branson]

I really have a hard time believing anyone who would vote for the AfD at the federal level would switch to another party in the EP elections because of their European platform. All of this also goes against everything we know with regards to European elections (second order elections and such). I really have no way of understanding how this weaker result in the Euro polls comes about.

Different turnout/interest patterns.

History in Austria shows that FPÖ-voters are much more likely to turn out for national elections than for EU elections, because far-right voters don't really care about the EU or think everything is rotten in the EU, which is why many stay at home.

Supporters of other parties are more likely to turn out, so this creates the 2-3% differences in EU elections compared with national elections.

[Tender Branson]

CDU leader sparks row with joke about gender-neutral bathrooms

Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer criticised for ‘disrespectful’ comment at carnival event

She was sold as a “mini Merkel”, a centrist in the same liberal mould as her predecessor as leader of Germany’s Christian Democratic Union. But Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer has worked hard to court the conservative wing of her party since taking the top job, leading to controversy over comments she made about gender-neutral bathrooms.

Entertaining an audience at a carnival event in Baden-Württemberg last Thursday, Kramp-Karrenbauer – who was voted “Miss Homophobia 2018” by an LGBT group last year – said such bathrooms were “for the men who don’t know if they are still allowed to stand or already have to sit down when they pee”.

The CDU leader, who is favourite to succeed Merkel as Germany’s chancellor, made the comments at the High Favourable Court of Fools, a traditional carnival event in Stockach where a prominent guest is put on trial in front of a jury in jester hats.

Remarking on the fact she was facing an all-male jury, Kramp-Karrenbauer said women had been forced to become more emancipated because modern men were too feeble, especially the “latte macchiato delegation” in the liberal German capital.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/04/cdu-leader-annegret-kramp-karrenbauer-gender-neutral-bathrooms-row

[Tender Branson]

Best campaign poster ever:

„These are the issues we are putting our emphasis on:“

[Tender Branson]

If our ÖVP-FPÖ government were still in office and running smoothly, I would make some jokes about Nahles now, being a clown etc., but considering our own state right now, I'm not ...

[Tender Branson]

Rumoured to be new defense minister (replacing VdL): Jens Spahn

Rumoured to be new health minister (replacing Spahn): Annette Widmann-Mauz, Commissioner for Migration and Integration

How absurd is that please ?

[Tender Branson]

What exactly are AKKs skills when it comes to Defense ?

What about the Migration woman’s skills about Health ?

That’s like asking a teacher to become your pilot to Mallorca ...

[Tender Branson]

It would be cooler if her name were Katja Döner.

Good for Bonn, I guess.

[Tender Branson]

CDU/CSU with a big mask scandal.

https://www.dw.com/en/german-lawmaker-resigns-over-face-mask-scandal/a-56798497

[Tender Branson]

In all seriousness, why do you have to constantly insult people and where does this weird Antifa fixation come from? Don't you even realize how ridiculous that is? And how stupid you look like?

For God's sake, you're really the most obsessive and compulsive user on this board.

I hate all kind of extremist organizations, left-wing Antifa and right-wing QAnon equally. A victim of Antifa, Nazi, and migrant violence as well, it is understandable that I harbor deep resentment against the likes of you, especially since you live up to the stereotype of the Antifa, a character trait that you already disclosed on Holger's forum.
I do understand that, according to Plato's allegory of the cave, I have to look "ridiculous" and "stupid" when you look up to me.
For a relatively "fresh" with only 300 posts you are extremely arrogant and disrespectful. I don't think there has ever been a member on the whole forum that behaved as superciliously and irreverently against an established member as you do, spilling so much hatred, bile and blood...

That’s so typical on this Forum and other places.

I frequently attack both the left and right and then leftist posters attack me because they cannot stand any criticism when it comes to their „natural habitat“.

As if they are our moral overlords and everything they say and post about uncontrolled immigration/open borders is the law of the land.

It’s not.

And I will constantly remind them (and to what excesses it leads).

[Tender Branson]

In all seriousness, why do you have to constantly insult people and where does this weird Antifa fixation come from? Don't you even realize how ridiculous that is? And how stupid you look like?

For God's sake, you're really the most obsessive and compulsive user on this board.

I hate all kind of extremist organizations, left-wing Antifa and right-wing QAnon equally. A victim of Antifa, Nazi, and migrant violence as well, it is understandable that I harbor deep resentment against the likes of you, especially since you live up to the stereotype of the Antifa, a character trait that you already disclosed on Holger's forum.
I do understand that, according to Plato's allegory of the cave, I have to look "ridiculous" and "stupid" when you look up to me.
For a relatively "fresh" with only 300 posts you are extremely arrogant and disrespectful. I don't think there has ever been a member on the whole forum that behaved as superciliously and irreverently against an established member as you do, spilling so much hatred, bile and blood...

That’s so typical on this Forum and other places.

I frequently attack both the left and right and then leftist posters attack me because they cannot stand any criticism when it comes to their „natural habitat“.

As if they are our moral overlords and everything they say and post about uncontrolled immigration/open borders is the law of the land.

It’s not.

And I will constantly remind them (and to what excesses it leads).

The worst thing the telephonist did (aside from downplaying the prevalent clan crime) is deriding Ali Utlu for his police protection he receives owing to death threats from Nazis, Muslims and the Antifa. That guy really hit the jackpot. Moreover, the telephonist turns Utlu's homosexuality into ridicule by pretending he were gay himself, only in order to morally justify his sheer malice against Utlu.

Wasn’t there a mosque woman in Berlin too who needs constant police protection now because she’s from the liberal wing of Islam and gets constant death threats by recently arrived backwards Muslim immigrants ? But also extremist German muslims who’s parents came as guest workers ?

This pretty much tells you all you need to know and why we must stop all further immigration from these Arab/African regions.

Educated/liberal Muslims are welcome IMO, but not the extremist plague that makes up the majority of wannabe immigrants.

[Tender Branson]

Wasn’t there a mosque woman in Berlin too who needs constant police protection now because she’s from the liberal wing of Islam and gets constant death threats by recently arrived backwards Muslim immigrants ? But also extremist German muslims who’s parents came as guest workers ?

This pretty much tells you all you need to know and why we must stop all further immigration from these Arab/African regions.

Educated/liberal Muslims are welcome IMO, but not the extremist plague that makes up the majority of wannabe immigrants.

I also know of an Austrian Muslim, Sabatina James, who is perpetually protected by bodyguards because she refused to enter into forced marriage.

I’m pretty sure the so-called „feminist/pro-women“ posters on here from the Left will find excuses why this is not a bad thing after all and excuses to let in more backwards immigrants.

And they call me misogynistic ...

[Tender Branson]

RIP Karin Strenz. She was a federal MP who was currently involved in one of the numerous corruption investigations surrounding the CDU (she decided not to run in the September elections), and died on an airplane on the way from Cuba to Germany.

When I heard about Strenz's death on an airplane I initially thought her plane crashed. But gosh, she literally died on that airplane; her official place of death has been set as Dublin, btw. The circumstances of her death are truly mysterious and eerie. Nobody knows anyway why Strenz had traveled to Cuba. According to the CDU/CSU parliamentary group it was definitely not an official journey commissioned by er party. The public prosecution department therefore wants to have an autopsy performed on her body, presumably in Ireland.

Looks like a private vacation, her husband was with her on the plane.

And a heart attack.

Strenz was also under investigation for massive corruption the last year (= for apparently receiving 4 million € in lobbying money from Azerbaijan).

[Tender Branson]

Hopefully the Greens end up with 1 or 2 seats more than the Union parties in the election, with about 25% each and Habeck becomes Chancellor.

At this point, Lush@ and Söder are just fighting for the post of Union insolvency administrator.

Söder would be humiliated if he takes the job and risk his post and image in Bavaria.

Unless there are internal polls which show the Union doing much better with him, he’ll pass and Lush@ will become Chancellor candidate ...

[Tender Branson]

A Syrian refugee has revoked his direct seat candidacy for the German Bundestag (for the Greens), after murder threats against him and his family:

https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/bundestagskandidatur-tareq-alaows-syrer-rueckzug-1.5251729

He doesn’t even have German citizenship yet, so he couldn’t have run for the seat anyway.

The Greens are „outraged“ about the „racism“ against him though.

[Tender Branson]

Interesting developments.

It would be stunning if Annalena's Greens were to win, but that's a big if (but with the clownish Lush@, you never know).

In that case, it would probably mean a Greens-SPD-FDP government and Germany would once again have another coalition as Austria. Only if Lush@ slightly wins and forms a Black-Green government, this would happen (maybe).