🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Keep Calm and ...]

Fair point. However with Habeck and Göring-Eckardt for the first time in the modern history of the Greens two members of the moderate (realo) wing are leading the party...

Chairpersons of the Greens are Robert Habeck and Annalena Baerbock (both are realos). Katrin Göring-Eckardt is the co-leader of the green fraction in the Bundestag.

[Keep Calm and ...]

I noticed that someone "stole" my user name and my avatar...

Sorry,
that was not my intention, when I'm looking for a good user name.
I think it is better that I rename myself.

[Keep Calm and ...]

I'd be interested to see some sort of constituency projection. I'm not interested in individual constituencies but just the regional trends and where the Greens get their seats, including their performance in the former east.

As they saying above, Election.de does a constituency projection map based on average polls, they update periodically: http://www.election.de/cgi-bin/showforecast_btw21.pl?

Also pollster INSA does one based on their own weekly polling: https://www.insa-consulere.de/insa-wahlkreiskarte/

There is a third one:
https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/blog/

[Keep Calm and ...]

...
- Germany will exit coal energy by 2030, eight years ahead of schedule.
...

[Keep Calm and ...]

Do you know how these 500 precincts voted last time around?

You can see it here:
https://www.wahlrecht.de/news/2024/wiederholungswahl-berlin-ausgangslage_kipppunkte.html

Wiederholungswahlbezirke (only these precints)     Berlin (whole Berlin 2021)   Deutschland (whole Germany 2021)

And: will the ballot look the same as in 2021?

Yes. Mostly
https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/bundestagswahlen/2021/wiederholungswahl.html

[Keep Calm and ...]

Result page:

https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/wahlen/BU2024/AFSPRAES/btw/index.html

[Keep Calm and ...]

Yes.
In Pankow (86% repeat) the SPD losses (and AfD gains) are much bigger (around 6.5%p):

https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/wahlen/BU2024/AFSPRAES/btw/ergebnisse_wahlkreis_76.html

[Keep Calm and ...]

Here you can compare the results in different ways

https://interaktiv.tagesspiegel.de/lab/wahl-wiederholung-bundestag-2024-berlin-karte-historische-ergebnisse-wahlkreisergebnisse-stimmbezirke/

[Keep Calm and ...]

And:

... nicht repräsentativen Umfrage.

I think it was an online survey (10.000) and no opinion poll by a pollster.