🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Actually, I never wanted to post anything in this forum anymore, but I discovered a very interesting fact about the composition of the German parliament that I want to share with you:

Since January, a political party that produced several chancellors in the Weimar Republic has been represented in the Bundestag. Take a guess at what party that could be...

[bigic]

Yeah, Centre Party, which gained Bundestag representation when an AfD (it's always them!) MP defected to them.

[Isaak]

Two INSA and Forsa polls released this week show the CDU (28%/28%) leading the SPD (19.5%/19%) by almost ten percentage points...

First the two major defeats in SH and NRW, now these terrible numbers - the situation doesn't get better for Scholz. Klingbeil talking about a "social democratic decade" appears more and more like a bad joke.

[Ethelberth]

Actually, I never wanted to post anything in this forum anymore, but I discovered a very interesting fact about the composition of the German parliament that I want to share with you:

Since January, a political party that produced several chancellors in the Weimar Republic has been represented in the Bundestag. Take a guess at what party that could be...

It has also one MEP too.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

🤮

[Yeahsayyeah]

^ We all know by now, that you don't like the Greens. No need to throw unappetizing substances  out of your guts all over the board.

On a related note, Green ministers are also leading the approval polls. Which isn't to surprising.  Habeck is kind of an Ersatzkanzler who is basically doing the communication and explanation stuff related the crisis related polices as "Who's ordering leadership will get leadership" Scholz is basically invisible.

Foreign ministers have almost ever been popular. Westerwelle was the main exception from the rule (and Bärbock's predecessor Maas somehow managed to be totally invisible and inept that one could forget the ministry existed).

Özdemir is a bit more surprising as he clearly isn't front and center at the moment. This is probably more related of being palatable and non-threatening to centre-right people and having a high name recognition from being around as a more or less important political figure (and one of the first with I migrational background) for decades.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

If the FDP could also fall under the 5% threshold (especially after Lindner's disgusting "Gratismentalität" comments), that would be very welcome. They've fallen to 7% in polling averages since May, and hopefully this will continue downwards. Praying we can get a pure SPD-Green (or Green-SPD, i'm not gonna be picky) government

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

The Berlin Constitutional Court began hearings today about the election fiasco last year (missing ballot papers, long lines, closed polling stations, etc.).

It looks likely that we may get a complete re-do of the elections for the Berlin House of Representatives, the 12 district assemblies, and also the Bundestag is possible:

According to a preliminary assessment, the Berlin Constitutional Court considers a complete repetition of the election to the Berlin House of Representatives to be necessary. This was stated by court president Ludgera Selting on Wednesday at the start of the oral hearing. There were a large number of electoral errors in the preparation and conduct of the election.

According to a preliminary assessment, these were relevant to the mandate – according to the court, they had an impact on the composition of Parliament and the distribution of mandates. A constitutional state can only be brought about by a complete re-election.

The oral hearing on Wednesday is considered an important step in the political and legal processing of the omissions on September 26, 2021. A decision is not expected on Wednesday, but is theoretically possible. According to the law, the judges have three months after the hearing to reach a verdict.

According to the court, 1,066 out of 2,256 polling stations for the House of Representatives elections were still open after 6 p.m., a total of 350 hours. Polling stations were closed for a total of 83 hours due to missing ballot papers.

According to the court, thousands of voters in the House of Representatives were unable to cast their votes, cast them effectively, were not unaffected or under reasonable conditions. Not all voting errors were documented. The electoral errors therefore affect all 78 constituencies of the House of Representatives. Confidence in democracy would be permanently and severely damaged if these are not corrected.

However, the current parliament may continue to work until a new one is elected. The previous decisions are still valid. The final judgment of the Constitutional Court must be made no later than three months after the hearing. The election must take place 90 days later. That would probably be in the spring of 2023.

For a redo of the Bundestag election, this must be decided by the Bundestag itself in October, based upon a recommendation from its election examination committee. After that, it must then go to the Federal Constitutional Court, which will then have the last word.


Per discussions in my SPD local chat groups, they say it is "very likely" that a redo election will happen for the entire state of Berlin, at all levels, including the Bundestag (!). We have already been invited to three meetings over the next week. And since it is a redo, there will be no new candidates, but rather everything should be exactly the same as September 2021.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Question then is what would happen if a Bundestag election redo went forward, and Die Linke lost one of their seats from Berlin? Would this interfere with the election results from last year in all of Germany? Would Die Linke be allowed to keep their other seats or just reduced to the two seats they won directly? Would that also lead to a recalculation of the entire Bundestag allocation?

[Oryxslayer]

The Berlin Constitutional Court began hearings today about the election fiasco last year (missing ballot papers, long lines, closed polling stations, etc.).

It looks likely that we may get a complete re-do of the Berlin House of Representatives, the 12 district assemblies, and also the Bundestag is possible:

According to a preliminary assessment, the Berlin Constitutional Court considers a complete repetition of the election to the Berlin House of Representatives to be necessary. This was stated by court president Ludgera Selting on Wednesday at the start of the oral hearing. There were a large number of electoral errors in the preparation and conduct of the election.

According to a preliminary assessment, these were relevant to the mandate – according to the court, they had an impact on the composition of Parliament and the distribution of mandates. A constitutional state can only be brought about by a complete re-election.

The oral hearing on Wednesday is considered an important step in the political and legal processing of the omissions on September 26, 2021. A decision is not expected on Wednesday, but is theoretically possible. According to the law, the judges have three months after the hearing to reach a verdict.

According to the court, 1,066 out of 2,256 polling stations for the House of Representatives elections were still open after 6 p.m., a total of 350 hours. Polling stations were closed for a total of 83 hours due to missing ballot papers.

According to the court, thousands of voters in the House of Representatives were unable to cast their votes, cast them effectively, were not unaffected or under reasonable conditions. Not all voting errors were documented. The electoral errors therefore affect all 78 constituencies of the House of Representatives. Confidence in democracy would be permanently and severely damaged if these are not corrected.

However, the current parliament may continue to work until a new one is elected. The previous decisions are still valid. The final judgment of the Constitutional Court must be made no later than three months after the hearing. The election must take place 90 days later. That would probably be in the spring of 2023.

Per discussions in my SPD local chat groups, they say it is "very likely" that a redo election will happen for the entire state of Berlin, at all levels, including the Bundestag (!). We have already been invited to three meetings over the next week. And since it is a redo, there will be no new candidates, but rather everything should be exactly the same as September 2021.

I'm not sure how much people realize it, but this rightful action may unintentionally open a whole can of worms. Basically, the electoral situation today =/= last year: Green, Union, and AfD up; SPD and FDP down; Linke the same but its perception, structural foundation, and viability are all now in question and the party could spectacularly collapse at any moment. So what if Linke fails to win one of its two Berlin seats? Because if one accepts that the do-over is the true legitimate results, then Linke failing to win three seats overall leads to them losing access to their PR slate and 36 overall seats. Which is a whole other mess created because the correct course of action could upset what was a delicate situation.  

Edit: Clarko saw the exact same possibility at the same time

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

EDIT - wrote this post before seeing Urutzizu's post above

Question then is what would happen if a Bundestag election redo went forward, and Die Linke lost one of their seats from Berlin? Would this interfere with the election results from last year in all of Germany? Would Die Linke be allowed to keep their other seats or just reduced to the two seats they won directly? Would that also lead to a recalculation of the entire Bundestag allocation?

According to Tagesspiel, yes, this is indeed possible that a redo of the Bundestag election in Berlin and the loss of a single Die Linke seat could lead to the entire party being ejected from the Bundestag save the two other directly elected seats (from 39 seats to just 2 seats).

The Traffic Light coalition had originally planned to only redo the vote in the most heavily affected districts, but now they are awaiting the final order of the Berlin Constitutional Court. The CDU is pushing for an entire redo of the Berlin elections from top to bottom.

Even if Die Linke was ejected, Traffic Light would still have a coalition, since then the seats would be recalculated proportionally, but CDU+FDP+AfD would also have a majority. Not that such a coalition would happen, but losing those 37 other Die Linke seats would greatly shift the composition of the Bundestag. After all, Die Linke did vote with the Traffic Light parties to raise the minimum wage (even though this wasn't necessary; SPD+Green+FDP had a majority for such a move and the CDU and AfD abstained anyways).

But I wonder if this would also affect the Bundesrat?

[Middle-aged Europe]

And astonishingly enough, the Left has so far failed to benefit from the inflation and rising energy costs in any way. Maybe that's because they rather like to fight each other over the issue of "Vladimir Putin - FF or HP?"

[mileslunn]

10 months after surpassing the Greens and the Union in the polls, SPD is back in third place:

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1527530766850306048

Wouldn't this though be enough for a red-green coalition as I have 46% for them while CDU/FDP/AfD only 43% (yes I know no one will work with AfD), but unless win over 3 constituent seats, one needs 5% to get any top up seats.

[Isaak]

10 months after surpassing the Greens and the Union in the polls, SPD is back in third place:

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1527530766850306048

Wouldn't this though be enough for a red-green coalition as I have 46% for them while CDU/FDP/AfD only 43% (yes I know no one will work with AfD), but unless win over 3 constituent seats, one needs 5% to get any top up seats.

Sure, it would be enough. But it's an old poll and the SPD is now well below 20% (Forschungsgruppe Wahlen: 18%, Forsa: 18%, Infratest Dimap: 17%).

At the moment, Red-Green polls between 35% (YouGov) and 40% (Forschungsgruppe Wahlen) – and this is probably rather generous given that the traffic light coalition is an absolute disaster.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

On a related note, Green ministers are also leading the approval polls. Which isn't to surprising.  Habeck is kind of an Ersatzkanzler who is basically doing the communication and explanation stuff related the crisis related polices as "Who's ordering leadership will get leadership" Scholz is basically invisible.

If the Greens had dissociated themselves from your party's misandrist manifesto, Habeck would not be Vizekanzler or "Ersatzkanzler" right now, he would be the Federal Chancellor of Germany (or my Minister President, respectively) instead.

But anyway, both ACAB's and Habeck's favorability numbers have dropped dramatically.
Take a guess at who has now become the most "popular" politician, albeit not owing to his own strength, but thanks to ACAB's and Habeck's failure to perform properly. 🤣

I'll give you a hint: PUTP despises that person... 👿

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

While we're at it...

According to DeutschlandTrend (the opinion poll broadcast of the other state TV channel) Scholz has the lowest favorability ratings of an incumbent chancellor since Schröder in 2004:



The citizens aren't satisfied with the Ampel parties' performance whatsoever:





Even the SPD voters themselves think that their preferred party's performance within the government leaves a lot to be desired:



This eventually results in the SPD competing with the AfD for the fourth place:

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

So the Berlin Constitutional Court has scheduled its decision about an election redo for November 16th, which means that given the 90 day period that a new election must be held (if they decide a redo must happen), the absolute latest date an election would be held would be February 14th, 2023.

And since that is a Tuesday, and elections are held on Sundays, we would see the latest election date as February 12th, 2023.

Gonna be fun having a campaign in the dead of winter!

[Sir Mohamed]

Sad, it seems like the 2021 election was pretty much a fluke. Why would voters want CDU back in power after they neglected many urgent problems for years?

[Oryxslayer]

Sad, it seems like the 2021 election was pretty much a fluke. Why would voters want CDU back in power after they neglected many urgent needed problems?

Because the SPD - partially because of their actions, partially because of their inactions, and partially because of their poor communication - are getting blame from both those angry with Germany's Ukraine policy (too far to some & not doing enough to others) and those angry with the price increases that have accompanied Russia's war.

[Sir Mohamed]

Sad, it seems like the 2021 election was pretty much a fluke. Why would voters want CDU back in power after they neglected many urgent needed problems?

Because the SPD - partially because of their actions, partially because of their inactions, and partially because of their poor communication - are getting blame from both those angry with Germany's Ukraine policy (too far to some & not doing enough to others) and those angry with the price increases that have accompanied Russia's war.

I'm afraid latter also explains why Afd seems on the rise again?

Fortunately the next election is 3 years away and things can change a lot between now and then.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

So the Berlin Constitutional Court has scheduled its decision about an election redo for November 16th, which means that given the 90 day period that a new election must be held (if they decide a redo must happen), the absolute latest date an election would be held would be February 14th, 2023.

And since that is a Tuesday, and elections are held on Sundays, we would see the latest election date as February 12th, 2023.

Constitutional judge and former Saarland Governor Peter Müller lambasted Berlin's administrative apparatus for the election glitches in a FAZ podcast, comparing goings-on to those of a dictatorial developing nation.

Gonna be fun having a campaign in the dead of winter!

This should be on the "German state & local elections" thread, anyway, as the results of the federal election will not be affected by the court decision.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Bad news for PJ, good news for PUTP, whatever news for MAE;
for the first time since its onset, the Ampel coalition doesn't have a majority in the polls anymore:

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Any chance LINKE gets shut out of parliament given the re-running of the berlin election ?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Any chance LINKE gets shut out of parliament given the re-running of the berlin election ?

The "re-running" of the Berlin election only applies to the state election The federal election results are not affected by the possible nullification of the federal election.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

The Election Review Committee now recommended a partial repetition in 431 districts. The Bundestag must decide on this. Due to numerous breakdowns in the 2021 Bundestag election in Berlin, the majority of the Bundestag Election Review Committee has spoken out in favor of a partial repetition. This should apply to 431 of the 2,256 districts in the city. Both the first and the second vote should be repeated. The decision in the committee was made with the votes of the coalition representatives of the SPD, Greens and FDP. "The electoral glitches must not be swept under the table, but must have consequences," said the chairman of the SPD parliamentary group in the committee, Johannes Fechner. The Bundestag is expected to decide on the recommendation of the Election Review Committee at the end of the week. However, the parliamentary groups believe that a repetition could be challenged before the Federal Constitutional Court. When the partial repetition could take place is still open. It is also unclear what effect it could have on the composition of the Bundestag. The Ampel representatives in the committee presented a corresponding proposal at the beginning of October. The CDU/CSU parliamentary group, on the other hand, advocated for a more extensive new election in Berlin. However, since the Ampel coalition has the majority in the committee, a recommendation for a partial repetition had already been assumed.

The federal election on September 26 last year overlapped with other elections in Berlin. The House of Representatives and the twelve district parliaments were elected on the same day. In addition, there was a referendum on the expropriation of large housing groups. Some ballot papers were missing or incorrectly issued. At times, some polling stations had to close and long queues formed in front of the entrances. Some polling stations were therefore even open until after the official closing at 6 p.m. Due to the Berlin marathon, roads were also closed and made it difficult, among other things, to deliver ballot papers.

Please note that there is also a scrutiny going on with regard to the Berlin state and community elections commissioned by the elections administrator of the state of Berlin, about which the Berlin Constitutional Court will decide on November 16.