🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Mr. Illini]

Why won’t Die Linke and SPD work together? Is there a history of mistrust there?

The Left is basically the heir to the former Communist Party in East Germany whereas SPD is a standard center-left European party. I think their platforms are pretty far apart.

[NOVA Green]

A few more updates from Berlin for final results:

82: Berlin- NeuKolln (Berlin)     SPD-HOLD

1st vote:

SPD:     26.0%     (-0.8%)
CDU:     18.7%     (-5.8%)
Greens: 19.9%     (+8.9%)
FDP:      6.3%      (+1.2%)
AfD:      7.4%      (-3.3%)
Linke:    13.1%     (-3.3%)
Others:   8.5%      (+8.5%)


2nd vote:

SPD:     24.1%   
CDU:     16.5%   
Greens:  22.7%    (!!!)
FDP:       7.1%     
AfD:       7.4%     
Linke:     12.0%     
Others:   10.1%


84: Berlin- Treptow- Kopenick    (Berlin)    Linke HOLD

1st vote:

SPD:     26.0%     (-0.8%)
CDU:     18.7%     (-5.8%)
Greens: 19.9%     (+8.9%)
FDP:      6.3%      (+1.2%)
AfD:      7.4%      (-3.3%)
Linke:    13.1%     (-3.3%)
Others:   8.5%      (+8.5%)


2nd vote:

SPD:     24.1%   
CDU:     13.2%   
Greens: 16.1%   
FDP:       8.1%     
AfD:       12.3%     
Linke:     16.0%     
Others:   10.9%


*** Fond memories of staying here shortly after German Reunification and spending 4 Nights in a Family Apt, while they gave me their Bedroom and slept in the Living room of their 1-BDRM apt and the keys to their house, after getting my first Night in Berlin where he is driving his Trebi as a "Tour Guide" over the neighborhoods of East Berlin ***

[urutzizu]

Final Result:



Seats: SPD 206, CDU 151, Grüne 118, FDP 92, AfD 83, CSU 45, Linke 39, SSW 1
Total: 735, Majority: 368

Traffic Light: 416
Jamaica: 406
R2G: 363, short by 5

Constituency Map:

[NOVA Green]

86: Berlin- Lichtenberg (Berlin)    LINKE HOLD

This was another neighborhood I tended to avoid in the early / mid '90s because of a heavily Far-Right Youth skinhead scene...

1st vote:

SPD:     19.6%     (+5.5%)
CDU:    12.4%     (-7.3%)
Greens: 13.6%     (+7.8%)
FDP:      6.1%      (+2.7%)
AfD:      12.2%      (-3.6%)
Linke:    25.8%      (-9.1%)
Others:  10.3%


2nd vote:

SPD:     23.2%   
CDU:     11.8%   
Greens: 15.5%
FDP:       7.0%     
AfD:       12.5%     
Linke:    18.2%     
Others:   11.7%

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Final Result:



Seats: SPD 206, CDU 151, Grüne 118, FDP 92, AfD 83, CSU 45, Linke 39, SSW 1
Total: 735, Majority: 368

Traffic Light: 416
Jamaica: 406
R2G: 363, short by 5

Constituency Map:

Which one did SSW win? Or is theirs from the proportional part because they’re an ethnic interest party? I think I vaguely remember hearing something about them being exempt from the 5% or 3 constituencies rule?

[n1240]

Final Result:



Seats: SPD 206, CDU 151, Grüne 118, FDP 92, AfD 83, CSU 45, Linke 39, SSW 1
Total: 735, Majority: 368

Traffic Light: 416
Jamaica: 406
R2G: 363, short by 5

Constituency Map:

Which one did SSW win? Or is theirs from the proportional part because they’re an ethnic interest party? I think I vaguely remember hearing something about them being exempt from the 5% or 3 constituencies rule?

Yeah they're completely exempt from 5% rule at federal and state level as they're a recognized national minority. As long as they earned enough share of the vote to win a seat they'd gain a seat (~2.3% would've been minimum in Schleswig-Holstein).

[Oryxslayer]

Final Result:

Seats: SPD 206, CDU 151, Grüne 118, FDP 92, AfD 83, CSU 45, Linke 39, SSW 1
Total: 735, Majority: 368

Traffic Light: 416
Jamaica: 406
R2G: 363, short by 5

Which one did SSW win? Or is theirs from the proportional part because they’re an ethnic interest party? I think I vaguely remember hearing something about them being exempt from the 5% or 3 constituencies rule?

SSW is a recognized minority interest party. Therefore, the 5% threshold does not apply to they, they just need to win enough votes to get a proportional seat in S-H.

[urutzizu]

Thanks to mq86mq for the calculation, according to the (in a traffic-light coalition now almost certain to be passed) Electoral reform bill to reduce to the Districts to 250, the Bundestag would have 662 Seats (73 less): CSU 38, SPD 186, CDU 137, Grüne 107, FDP 83, AfD 75, Linke 35 (provided see below), SSW 1.

Because someone asked earlier about the Linke under that reduction: Linke on margin between three and two, the districts in Leipzig would likely remain the same (due to healthy population growth there), but Berlin would be more difficult. Gesine Lötzsch's seat in Lichtenberg would have to be expanded, likely to include Friedrichshain.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

According to the Guardian Linke is still hurt by missing the 5% threhold.

However, failing to meet the 5% hurdle means the party will lose its status as a “Fraktion”, or parliamentary group, which in turn means fewer funds and less power.

Will this make a significant difference to them in terms of funding ? I know a lot of other left wing political parties depend on these funds due to their lack of large donors.

[n1240]

Bundeswahlleiter shows seat distribution on their website, presumably the provisional election results

SPD 206
CDU/CSU 196 (45 CSU)
Greens 118
FDP 92
AfD 83
Left 39
SSW 1
Total 735

[H. Ross Peron]

Did the CDU just gain two direct mandate seats (Märkischer Kreis II and Berlin-Marzahn-Hellersdorf)?

[Oryxslayer]

Did the CDU just gain two direct mandate seats (Märkischer Kreis II and Berlin-Marzahn-Hellersdorf)?

Yes, despite their falls the CDU gained two. They ran their party chair in one so he had a personal brand, and in the other they had a high floor and Linke just fell past them.

[Sven der Igel]

SPD+Greens+FDP (government of winners & my preferred coalition) would get 57% of seats and achieved 52% of the vote.

[Sven der Igel]

The Bundeswahlleiter says that 61.2 million people were eligible to vote yesterday after all.

Previously, they estimated only 60.4 million eligible.

The 61.2 million is still down from 61.7 million in 2017, because more old people died than new younger voters and naturalized foreigners being added.

Turnout was 76.6% (+0.4%) and highest in Bayern with 79.8% (I guess).

[Frodo]

How does 2005 compare with this election?  

[Oryxslayer]

How does 2005 compare with this election?  

There seem to be a lot of similarities - swap the position of the big two ofc - but the negotiation alignment is different. In 2005 the emergent Linke prevented either Black-Yellow or Red-Green from a majority, and both parties refused to work with it. The only realistic option within the established calculus was GroKo, so it mattered immensely who finished first.

This time the realistic options are traffic light or Jamaica. The crucial thing here is that no government except GroKo, which right now is looked at as an emergency option since both members have another option, can be formed without the FDP and Greens. It is the minor partners who are indispensable to any government. So who came marginally in first might not end up mattering, other than giving the SPD some legitimacy, if the the Greens and FDP get a better deal from the Union. It is tradition for the largest party to form government, but sometimes it does not happen. The Union won the Bremen 2019 election for example but the SPD formed R2G.

Lindner, for example, recognized their two parties position last night and proposed initial private talks between the Greens and FDP. The two parties would maximize their leverage by coming up with a common platform, then dictating it down to their potential partners. See who agreed to more and then play the SPD and Union against each other for more concessions like they are a nonaligned country during the cold war. This is unlikely to happen of course because the FDP and Greens are not truly nonaligned and have their own preferred outcome, but it would be an interesting way to approach government formation.

[Logical]

Union losses by Lander

NRW -6.7
Berlin -6.8
Bavaria -7.1
Bremen -7.9
Hesse -8
Saarland -8.8
Saxony-Anhalt -9.3
BaWu -9.6
Saxony -9.7
Lower Saxony -10.8
Rhineland-Palatinate -11.2
Brandenburg -11.4
Hamburg -11.8
Thuringia -11.9
Schleswig-Holstein -12
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern -15.7

It appears that Laschet may have retained some home state strength in NRW. So picking him as Kanzlerkandidat had some merit.

[progressive85]

So is this result (the left winning control for the first time in 16 years) considered in Germany right now to be a surprise?  What is the story on the ground there?

[sirius3100]

According to the Guardian Linke is still hurt by missing the 5% threhold.

However, failing to meet the 5% hurdle means the party will lose its status as a “Fraktion”, or parliamentary group, which in turn means fewer funds and less power.

Will this make a significant difference to them in terms of funding ? I know a lot of other left wing political parties depend on these funds due to their lack of large donors.

The Guardian is having a misconception. To form a Fraktion a party needs to have at least 5% of the seats in the Bundestag (https://www.gesetze-im-internet.de/btgo_1980/__10.html) and Die Linke got that.

That rule could be changed by a simple majority of the Bundestag as it`s only written in the rules of procedure for the Bundestag, but I wouldn't expect any change here.
A change would also be challenged in the Constitutional Court, I`d guess. The court often used the 5% of seats rule as a basis for other rulings, despite it not being written in the Basic Law.

[YL]

Final Result:

Seats: SPD 206, CDU 151, Grüne 118, FDP 92, AfD 83, CSU 45, Linke 39, SSW 1
Total: 735, Majority: 368

Traffic Light: 416
Jamaica: 406
R2G: 363, short by 5

Which one did SSW win? Or is theirs from the proportional part because they’re an ethnic interest party? I think I vaguely remember hearing something about them being exempt from the 5% or 3 constituencies rule?

SSW is a recognized minority interest party. Therefore, the 5% threshold does not apply to they, they just need to win enough votes to get a proportional seat in S-H.

Their best results on the Zweitstimme were 9.2% in Flensburg-Schleswig (the eastern of the two constituencies along the Danish border), 6.6% in Nordfriesland-Dithmarschen Nord (the western), and 4.5% in Rendsburg-Eckenförde.  Elsewhere in Schleswig-Holstein they seem to have been getting 1% or 2% generally.

[Yeahsayyeah]

I don't think anyone will bother to change the rules of procedure to deny the Left official faction status, when they would have to give them a group status anyway, as the PDS had from 1990 to 1998, that would have to include most of the same rights that a faction has.

[YL]

I note that on the Zweitstimme the Greens carried Leipzig II and Berlin-Treptow-Köpenick and Berlin-Lichtenberg were both carried by the SPD.  So Die Linke were saved by the different dynamics of the Erststimme.

[Former President tack50]

Disappointing result given that the left still does not have a majority. I am hoping for traffic light at least but Germany will disappoint me and go for Jamaica I am sure (or worse yet, GroKo again)

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

Disappointing result given that the left still does not have a majority. I am hoping for traffic light at least but Germany will disappoint me and go for Jamaica I am sure (or worse yet, GroKo again)

The glimpse of hope is that Jamaica is harder for the greens to sell to their party base than traffic light is for the FDP to sell to theirs.

[darklordoftech]

How do you get a “ Jamaica coalition” from an SPD victory considering that red isn’t one of the colors on the flag of Jamaica?