🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Flyersfan232]

Any possibility merkel get a retirement job as president?

[NOVA Green]

CDU narrowly holds:

77: Berlin Reinickendorf    (Berlin)       

CDU=     -9.6%
SPD=      +2.2%
Greens=  +6.1%
AfD=       -3.4%
FDP=       +1.5%
Linke=     -2.9%

[VPH]

What's up with the relative strength of the animal rights party and the parody party in Saarland?

[Yeahsayyeah]

The SPD gain Pinneberg. Scholz will be chancellor, then. (The party winning this district got the chancellorship since 1953) *g*

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There's a definite pattern of Green constituency victories in 'nice' smaller cities.

Could this be linked with inter-migration within Germany, on part of those below 30?

Most of them are univesity cities.

When you put it that way, it makes a ton of sense.

[Astatine]

What's up with the relative strength of the animal rights party and the parody party in Saarland?

Greens didn't run because their list got invalidated, so SPD got most of the Green votes and benefited a lot from the collapse of Die Linke.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[walleye26]

Why won’t Die Linke and SPD work together? Is there a history of mistrust there?

[NOVA Green]

81-   Berlin- Templehof-Schoeneberg flips CDU> SPD

1st vote:

SPD:     27.1%     (+5.0%)
CDU:    21.9%     (-7.0%)
Greens: 25.1%     (+6.2%)
FDP:      7.3%      (+1.0%)
AfD:      5.7%      (-3.3%)
Linke:    6.1%      (-4.7%)
Others:  6.8%


2nd vote:

SPD:     24.8%    
CDU:     18.2%    
Greens: 25.2%     (!!!)
FDP:       9.5%      
AfD:       6.2%      
Linke:     7.5%      
Others:   8.5%

Miss my old City of Berlin.      

[brucejoel99]

Any possibility merkel get a retirement job as president?

Presumably unlikely, considering that Steinmeier has already confirmed that he'll be running for re-election.

Why won’t Die Linke and SPD work together? Is there a history of mistrust there?

In the early aughts, they didn't work together purely because their then-leaders - Chancellor Schröder & his predecessor as SPD leader-turned-Linke leader Lafontaine - hated each other's guts. Now, it's more a matter of some major disagreements (e.g., foreign policy) & the general aversion to cooperation with the successor party of East German communists. Also, the numbers just won't work this time around.

[Oryxslayer]

Why won’t Die Linke and SPD work together? Is there a history of mistrust there?

Slightly, plus there's Linke's redline on NATO. But more it's a case where the R2G don't have 50%+1, so that isn't even a point of discussion.

[Oryxslayer]

Also, the Greens won the Aachen direct mandate. This means the Greens will now tie the AfD in direct mandates, despite the AfD vote being more efficient on winning these types of seats. Just another way to stick it to the semi-fascists.

[NOVA Green]

As expected Greens HOLD:

83- Berlin-Friedrichshain -Kreuzberg-P'Berg Ost   (Berlin) 

(My old neighborhoods!!!)

1st Round

Greens-  37,8%       (+11.5%)
Linke-    17,7%       (-7.2%)
SPD-      17.4%       (+0.5%)
Others-   10.1%      (+10.1%)
CDU-       7.7%       (-4.6%)
FDP-       5.4%        (+2.3%)
AfD-       3.9%         (-2.3%)

[n1240]

Anyone else happen to be trying to calculate total seats using the method displayed by the Bundeswahlletier's sample calculation?

These are the seat calculations I currently have, I don't not expect it to vary from these totals at this point

CDU/CSU: 196 (45 CSU)
SDP: 206
Greens: 118
FDP: 92
Left: 39
FDP: 83
Total 734

SSW should also get 1 seat - I expect them to take a seat from someone but I am not completely sure yet (pretty sure it won't be from SDP though).

[NOVA Green]

(5) more flips since my last update:

Pinneberg- (Schleswig-Holstein)   CDU>SPD      (Referenced a few minutes ago upthread)

Lubeck-  (Schleswig-Holstein)   CDU>SPD   

WOW!   Greens place 2nd ahead of CDU   (!!!)

Aachen I   (NRW)     CDU> Green (Referenced a few minutes ago upthread)

187: Odenwald (Hesse)     CDU>SPD

85  Berlin-Marzahn  (Berlin)  Linke>CDU  (!!!)

That one really pisses me off, but when I lived in Berlin was always very careful hanging out in neighborhoods around Marzahn since it was known as a Neo-Nazi stronghold back in the early / mid '90s.

[n1240]

Berlin Marzahn-Hellersdorf flipping is really odd. CDU has done worse in every seat on first vote compared to 2017, except Berlin Marzahn-Hellersdorf which they did 7.2% better in.

[Nyvin]

Isn't "Jamaica" (CDU-Greens-FDP) pretty much impossible?  Why would Greens support CDU?   They're a lot further from each other than FDP is from SPD.

[NOVA Green]

Berlin Marzahn-Hellersdorf flipping is really odd. CDU has done worse in every seat on first vote compared to 2017, except Berlin Marzahn-Hellersdorf which they did 7.2% better in.

Not sure what was going on there with local politics but maybe something to do with the two candidates?

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petra_Pau

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mario_Czaja

Does look like AfD did some tactical voting and shifted votes towards CDU in the 1st round, while meanwhile Greens & SPD both improved compared to 2017.

Still.... 2nd round votes:

SPD: 23.4%
AfD:  16.9%
CDU: 16.4%
Linke: 15.9%
Grune: 8.6%
FDP:    7.3%
Others: 11.6%

[Хahar 🤔]

Back home from our party now, and it feels awesome to be a member of the strongest political force in Germany.

Everything depends now on FDP and Greens, and I predict it won't be that easy since both of thrm have difference preferences between SPD and CDU. Interestingly, I spoke with a bunch of Greens since they had their election night party in the same restaurant, and all of them wanted to enter a trafficlight coalition and not Jamaica.

Did you speak to any FDP members or was thier party at a venue to expensive for you to enter ?

Asking you to be better at posting is certainly a lost cause, but have you ever considered being a better person?

[Oryxslayer]

Isn't "Jamaica" (CDU-Greens-FDP) pretty much impossible?  Why would Greens support CDU?   They're a lot further from each other than FDP is from SPD.

Impossible is too strong a word for one of the only three viable governments, and especially since one of the three would only be pursued if all else fails. It would be better for the FDP to go with Jamaica, and the Greens overwhelmingly prefer Traffic Light. They both are skeptical of the alternative. But both can work with either option, if it is beneficial. Both types of government are in place in various states.

Now if this is a question of ideology, remember that the German greens are not a Scandinavian left-green party. That is just one part of their tent. The German greens are more middle-of-the-road, which is why they surged this election at the expense of the Union, and their biggest gains by percentage tended to come from well-off educated areas.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Isn't "Jamaica" (CDU-Greens-FDP) pretty much impossible?  Why would Greens support CDU?   They're a lot further from each other than FDP is from SPD.

Impossible is too strong a word for one of the only three viable governments, and especially since one of the three would only be pursued if all else fails. It would be better for the FDP to go with Jamaica, and the Greens overwhelmingly prefer Traffic Light. They both are skeptical of the alternative. But both can work with either option, if it is beneficial. Both types of government are in place in various states.

Now if this is a question of ideology, remember that the German greens are not a Scandinavian left-green party. That is just one part of their tent. The German greens are more middle-of-the-road, which is why they surged this election at the expense of the Union, and their biggest gains by percentage tended to come from well-off educated areas.

Is it too strong of a comparison to say that the closeness between Greens and SPD is sort of like between CDA and VVD?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Back home from our party now, and it feels awesome to be a member of the strongest political force in Germany.

Everything depends now on FDP and Greens, and I predict it won't be that easy since both of thrm have difference preferences between SPD and CDU. Interestingly, I spoke with a bunch of Greens since they had their election night party in the same restaurant, and all of them wanted to enter a trafficlight coalition and not Jamaica.

Did you speak to any FDP members or was thier party at a venue to expensive for you to enter ?

Asking you to be better at posting is certainly a lost cause, but have you ever considered being a better person?

It's a joke about the FDP being an eltiiest party, I don't know what else you were reading into it.

[Devout Centrist]

Again, I don't see why the Greens would opt to coalition with Laschet. It might give Baerbock and co. a little more leverage in negotiations, but it would be insanely unpopular with the rank and file. I also don't think Scholz would give in to their terms over such a weak threat.

[Epaminondas]

Given the results in Saarland, would it be unreasonable to believe that the SDP might have won a tsunami landslide across the country if the Greens had withdrawn in their favour?

In particular in BW, every single seat would have flipped.
In fact outside of Bavaria I see very constituencies where SDP + Greens < CDU.
Why not carry out merged lists?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Given the results in Saarland, would it be unreasonable to believe that the SDP would have won a tsunami landslide across the country if the Greens had withdrawn in their favour?

In particular in BW, every single seat would have flipped.
In fact outside of Bavaria I see very constituencies where SDP + Greens < CDU

Not every green would vote for the SDP. Many green voters particulary in Baden-Württemberg
 would be inclined to go back to the CDU if there was no greens.