🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Sven der Igel]

I think participation will reach 80% this time.

But there are fewer eligible voters than last time (60.4 million) vs. 61.7 in 2017.

Many old people died, much fewer young voters reached voting age.

[Sven der Igel]

My guess:

29% SPD
24% Union
17% Grüne
12% FDP
  9% AfD
  6% Linke

[parochial boy]

25-25 between SPD and CDU/CSU. Oh my god.

[Mike88]

25-25 between SPD and CSU. Oh my god.

ZDF is saying 26 SPD; 24 CDU/CSU. But, yeah, too close to call.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Leaked exit poll:
Beer party: 30%
Sausage party: 20%
Work party: 15%
Autobahn party: 10%
Wunderbar party: 10%
Efficiency party: 5%
Berlin airport party: 5%
Bielefeld does not exist party: 5%

[Oryxslayer]

ARD Exit:

25% Union, 200 seats
25% SPD, 197 seats
15% Grune 119
11% AFD 87
11% FDP 87
5% Linke 39


Hope y'all enjoy a long night.

[Sven der Igel]

Linke about to die out, like the dinosaurs.

[Walmart_shopper]

ARD Exit:

25% Union, 200 seats
25% SPD, 197 seats
15% Grune 119
11% AFD 87
11% FDP 87
5% Linke 39


Hope y'all enjoy a long night.

Wow that would be epic. Germany is becoming as inveterately right wing as Colombia and Britain at this point.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Greens strongest party in the Berlin state parliament election according to the prognosis. This wasn't in the polls

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

ARD Exit:

25% Union, 200 seats
25% SPD, 197 seats
15% Grune 119
11% AFD 87
11% FDP 87
5% Linke 39


Hope y'all enjoy a long night.

Afd Down and Linke possibly kicked out great result

[Logical]

ZDF exit poll
SPD 26
Union 24
Greens 14.5
FDP 12
AFD 10
LINKE 5

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

ARD Exit:

25% Union, 200 seats
25% SPD, 197 seats
15% Grune 119
11% AFD 87
11% FDP 87
5% Linke 39


Hope y'all enjoy a long night.

Don't you dare forget the glorious SSW's seat!!! 😤☝🏻

[jaichind]

ARD Exit:

25% Union, 200 seats
25% SPD, 197 seats
15% Grune 119
11% AFD 87
11% FDP 87
5% Linke 39


Hope y'all enjoy a long night.

Afd Down and Linke possibly kicked out great result

I thought if Linke won enough direct mandates they will not be kicked out even if they fell below 5% ?

[Farmlands]

ARD Exit:

25% Union, 200 seats
25% SPD, 197 seats
15% Grune 119
11% AFD 87
11% FDP 87
5% Linke 39


Hope y'all enjoy a long night.

Wow that would be terrible. Germany is becoming as inveterately right wing as Colombia and Britain at this point.

Fixed that for you. Even with a really flawed chancellor candidate, it seems like the older people of Germany still favor keeping the status quo above all else.

[soundchaser]

ZDF exit poll
SPD 26
Union 24
Greens 14.5
FDP 12
AFD 10
LINKE 5

Historically speaking, has ZDF had more accurate exit polls? This would certainly be a preferred result.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

ARD Exit:

25% Union, 200 seats
25% SPD, 197 seats
15% Grune 119
11% AFD 87
11% FDP 87
5% Linke 39


Hope y'all enjoy a long night.

Afd Down and Linke possibly kicked out great result

Alas, the Linke will probably win three direct mandates anyway. 😕

[randomusername]

ARD Exit:

25% Union, 200 seats
25% SPD, 197 seats
15% Grune 119
11% AFD 87
11% FDP 87
5% Linke 39


Hope y'all enjoy a long night.

Exactly 355 seats between the SPD+Greens+Linke

[Walmart_shopper]

25-25 between SPD and CSU. Oh my god.

Wonder if the SPDers on here will regret their party squeezing the left's lemon too hard. Looks like Germany better get ready to dance to Marley for a while.

[jaichind]

Reminds me of 2005 when a ruling party that has been around for a while (in that case SPD)  and was expected to be soundly beaten comes back and beat the pre-election polls into a virtual tie its main opponent.

[Oryxslayer]

ARD Exit:

25% Union, 200 seats
25% SPD, 197 seats
15% Grune 119
11% AFD 87
11% FDP 87
5% Linke 39


Hope y'all enjoy a long night.

Afd Down and Linke possibly kicked out great result

I thought if Linke won enough direct mandates they will not be kicked out even if they fell below 5% ?

Theoretically yes. But the trendline in their eastern strongholds - mainly East Berlin - has been continuous collapse as their western delegation grows, and they can't win direct seats in the west. So a sub-5% result could mean < 3 seats and a failure to enter.

[KaiserDave]

Note: I am not pleased with these results of course, hoping the numbers end up tilting towards the SPD

[Landslide Lyndon]

25-25 between SPD and CSU. Oh my god.

Wonder if the SPDers on here will regret their party squeezing the left's lemon too hard. Looks like Germany better get ready to dance to Marley for a while.

Is that what really happened? Because from what I read Soltz didn't exactly ran a Bernie Sanders/Jeremy Corbin campaign.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Reminds me of 2005 when a ruling party that has been around for a while (in that case SPD)  and was expected to be soundly beaten comes back and beat the pre-election polls into a virtual tie its main opponent.

I mean, no, because the CDU-CSU were miles ahead in the polls for nearly all the campaign and were still consistently very comfortably ahead - well above the MoE - right until the very end.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

ARD Exit:

25% Union, 200 seats
25% SPD, 197 seats
15% Grune 119
11% AFD 87
11% FDP 87
5% Linke 39


Hope y'all enjoy a long night.

Afd Down and Linke possibly kicked out great result

Alas, the Linke will probably win three direct mandates anyway. 😕

Non of their mandates are safe with a strong swing away from them and towards the SPD

[crals]

Oof. Great result for the FDP if true, any alternative to another grand coalition would have to go through them.