🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Astatine]

Could the Greens realistically win more than the one constituency they've been holding on to?

Yes. They're favorites in one district in Stuttgart, a town where Greens usually overperform, also thanks to their formidable candidate, and could realistically win another district there. Baden-Württemberg offers several other pickup chances as well, including Freiburg for instance. Possible wins include some other urban areas too, including Munich, Frankfurt, Darmstadt and Kiel.

[Sozialliberal]

I have a question here. I have been talking to a few foreign exchange students I met who are German about their thoughts. (They mostly are supporting Schultz/SPD or the Greens). They all mostly said the FDP is the “business party, and they really don’t care much to get involved with social issues.”

My question is, would the FDP be similar to the Libertarian party in America? Or, would it be more like “country club/business Republicans?” One of them mentioned the FDP is the “party for the rich.” I figured you guys would know more.

In German, the word "social" (sozial) can mean "serving the common good". I think that's what they might have meant when they were talking about "social issues". You know, there are stereotypes about party supporters: "FDP supporters are cold-hearted capitalists." "Greens are smug do-gooders who tell everyone else how to run their lives." "Linke supporters are DDR nostalgics." Et cetera.

A few years ago, I myself wouldn't have voted for the FDP, but I think the federal party is moving in a good direction. There is a new generation of younger FDP politicians who stress that equal opportunity is an important part of liberalism. For example, I really like Johannes Vogel, the FDP's spokesman for labor market and pension policy. He was elected one of the FDP's three vice-chairpeople this year, and I hope he will play a big role in the party's future.

You also have to remember that American politics is very different from German politics (or European politics in general). The libertarian movement in Germany is so tiny that it's politically irrelevant. FDP chairman Lindner said in an interview that if he were an American politician, he'd support universal health care. All major parties in Germany agree that universal health care is a good thing.

Here's how Germany would have voted in the last United States presidential elections:

Date: October 2020
Polling organization: Forschungsgruppe Wahlen
Would vote for Biden: 89%
Would vote for Trump: 4%
Source: https://www.forschungsgruppe.de/Umfragen/Politbarometer/Archiv/Politbarometer_2020/Oktober_II_2020/

Date: October 2016
Polling organization: Forschungsgruppe Wahlen
Would vote for Clinton: 90%
Would vote for Trump: 4%
Source: https://www.forschungsgruppe.de/Umfragen/Politbarometer/Archiv/Politbarometer_2016/Oktober_I_2016/

Date: August 2012
Polling organization: Forsa
Would vote for Obama: 86%
Would vote for Romney: 5%
Source: https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/umfrage-die-meisten-deutschen-wuerden-obama-waehlen-a-851380.html

[walleye26]

I have a question here. I have been talking to a few foreign exchange students I met who are German about their thoughts. (They mostly are supporting Schultz/SPD or the Greens). They all mostly said the FDP is the “business party, and they really don’t care much to get involved with social issues.”

My question is, would the FDP be similar to the Libertarian party in America? Or, would it be more like “country club/business Republicans?” One of them mentioned the FDP is the “party for the rich.” I figured you guys would know more.

In German, the word "social" (sozial) can mean "serving the common good". I think that's what they might have meant when they were talking about "social issues". You know, there are stereotypes about party supporters: "FDP supporters are cold-hearted capitalists." "Greens are smug do-gooders who tell everyone else how to run their lives." "Linke supporters are DDR nostalgics." Et cetera.

A few years ago, I myself wouldn't have voted for the FDP, but I think the federal party is moving in a good direction. There is a new generation of younger FDP politicians who stress that equal opportunity is an important part of liberalism. For example, I really like Johannes Vogel, the FDP's spokesman for labor market and pension policy. He was elected one of the FDP's three vice-chairpeople this year, and I hope he will play a big role in the party's future.

You also have to remember that American politics is very different from German politics (or European politics in general). The libertarian movement in Germany is so tiny that it's politically irrelevant. FDP chairman Lindner said in an interview that if he were an American politician, he'd support universal health care. All major parties in Germany agree that universal health care is a good thing.

Here's how Germany would have voted in the last United States presidential elections:

Date: October 2020
Polling organization: Forschungsgruppe Wahlen
Would vote for Biden: 89%
Would vote for Trump: 4%
Source: https://www.forschungsgruppe.de/Umfragen/Politbarometer/Archiv/Politbarometer_2020/Oktober_II_2020/

Date: October 2016
Polling organization: Forschungsgruppe Wahlen
Would vote for Clinton: 90%
Would vote for Trump: 4%
Source: https://www.forschungsgruppe.de/Umfragen/Politbarometer/Archiv/Politbarometer_2016/Oktober_I_2016/

Date: August 2012
Polling organization: Forsa
Would vote for Obama: 86%
Would vote for Romney: 5%
Source: https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/umfrage-die-meisten-deutschen-wuerden-obama-waehlen-a-851380.html

Those numbers surprise me actually. AfD got 12% last time, I would’ve imagined Trump would’ve at least gotten most of their supporters and a few religious groups. I would’ve thought he would at least get double digits.

[buritobr]

When the voting day gets closer, all the polling firms show similar results. The variance becomes smaller. Earler polls show different numbers for same party according to the polling firms.
This convergence happens maybe because the voters are more sure of their decisions, and so, there is less bias.

But other motive can happen: each polling firm has its favorite party. In the earlier polls, each firm wants to increase the numbers of its favorite party in order to create a bandwagon effect. When the voting day gets closer, all the polling firms adjust in order not to make wrong forecasts. I don't know if this is usual in Germany.

[Hnv1]

I have a question here. I have been talking to a few foreign exchange students I met who are German about their thoughts. (They mostly are supporting Schultz/SPD or the Greens). They all mostly said the FDP is the “business party, and they really don’t care much to get involved with social issues.”

My question is, would the FDP be similar to the Libertarian party in America? Or, would it be more like “country club/business Republicans?” One of them mentioned the FDP is the “party for the rich.” I figured you guys would know more.

In German, the word "social" (sozial) can mean "serving the common good". I think that's what they might have meant when they were talking about "social issues". You know, there are stereotypes about party supporters: "FDP supporters are cold-hearted capitalists." "Greens are smug do-gooders who tell everyone else how to run their lives." "Linke supporters are DDR nostalgics." Et cetera.

A few years ago, I myself wouldn't have voted for the FDP, but I think the federal party is moving in a good direction. There is a new generation of younger FDP politicians who stress that equal opportunity is an important part of liberalism. For example, I really like Johannes Vogel, the FDP's spokesman for labor market and pension policy. He was elected one of the FDP's three vice-chairpeople this year, and I hope he will play a big role in the party's future.

You also have to remember that American politics is very different from German politics (or European politics in general). The libertarian movement in Germany is so tiny that it's politically irrelevant. FDP chairman Lindner said in an interview that if he were an American politician, he'd support universal health care. All major parties in Germany agree that universal health care is a good thing.

Here's how Germany would have voted in the last United States presidential elections:

Date: October 2020
Polling organization: Forschungsgruppe Wahlen
Would vote for Biden: 89%
Would vote for Trump: 4%
Source: https://www.forschungsgruppe.de/Umfragen/Politbarometer/Archiv/Politbarometer_2020/Oktober_II_2020/

Date: October 2016
Polling organization: Forschungsgruppe Wahlen
Would vote for Clinton: 90%
Would vote for Trump: 4%
Source: https://www.forschungsgruppe.de/Umfragen/Politbarometer/Archiv/Politbarometer_2016/Oktober_I_2016/

Date: August 2012
Polling organization: Forsa
Would vote for Obama: 86%
Would vote for Romney: 5%
Source: https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/umfrage-die-meisten-deutschen-wuerden-obama-waehlen-a-851380.html

My experience with the FDP was it was all lawyers and western white collar, and that it was somehow the only part in Germany still believing in ORDO-liberalism.
If you look at the writing of the original ordos (which in my opinion is far superior to liberal writing of the USUK strain) you can understand their reluctance with dealing with "social" issues. The sole purpose of the state is to combat monopolies and create the legal Rahmen for a market to operate in. Maybe it's changing in recent years, but that was my impression.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

HAPPY ELECTION DAY // FROHES WAHLTAG!! The day is finally here! 🇩🇪

I am going to be at the Berlin SPD watch party at The Station Berlin tonight. I will be wearing my SPD t-shirt and maybe put my SAP buttons on my hoodie. I sent an email asking if i could bring my 2 meter-long SPD flag on a flagpole but i got no response 🤔 So unsure if that will be allowed in

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Those numbers surprise me actually. AfD got 12% last time, I would’ve imagined Trump would’ve at least gotten most of their supporters and a few religious groups. I would’ve thought he would at least get double digits.

Why would German nationalists support Donald Trump, a U.S.-nationalist? Nationalists usually ene up hating each other, even if they have a shared hatred of The System, immigrants, and Muslims.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Postal voting increasingly becomes a strategical challenge for pollsters, and right now there is a pending lawsuit on whether pollsters are allowed to ask the respondents whether they have already voted by mail and if yes, for whom. Opponents of this method argue that this violates one of the constitutional election principles, secrecy.

Do you mean the Forsa-lawsuit? As far as I know, Forsa has won that one.

It happens undercover though, since the party leadership gets access to the data - I had also received leaked exit poll data of the 2018 elections in Hesse and Bavaria, which was somewhat accurate.

Even low-ranking party base members might know what the exit polls look like before they are published if they are members of the right group chat...

Will us Atlas user be included in that exclusive club ?

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

Postal voting increasingly becomes a strategical challenge for pollsters, and right now there is a pending lawsuit on whether pollsters are allowed to ask the respondents whether they have already voted by mail and if yes, for whom. Opponents of this method argue that this violates one of the constitutional election principles, secrecy.

Do you mean the Forsa-lawsuit? As far as I know, Forsa has won that one.

It happens undercover though, since the party leadership gets access to the data - I had also received leaked exit poll data of the 2018 elections in Hesse and Bavaria, which was somewhat accurate.

Even low-ranking party base members might know what the exit polls look like before they are published if they are members of the right group chat...

Will us Atlas user be included in that exclusive club ?

Haha, sharing these exit polls is highly illegal. It's one thing to post them in the group chat, It's another thing to publish them on the internet...

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Postal voting increasingly becomes a strategical challenge for pollsters, and right now there is a pending lawsuit on whether pollsters are allowed to ask the respondents whether they have already voted by mail and if yes, for whom. Opponents of this method argue that this violates one of the constitutional election principles, secrecy.

Do you mean the Forsa-lawsuit? As far as I know, Forsa has won that one.

It happens undercover though, since the party leadership gets access to the data - I had also received leaked exit poll data of the 2018 elections in Hesse and Bavaria, which was somewhat accurate.

Even low-ranking party base members might know what the exit polls look like before they are published if they are members of the right group chat...

Will us Atlas user be included in that exclusive club ?

Haha, sharing these exit polls is highly illegal. It's one thing to post them in the group chat, It's another thing to publish them on the internet...

there goes my plan to make bank based on insider trading.

[President Johnson]

HAPPY ELECTION DAY // FROHES WAHLTAG!! The day is finally here! 🇩🇪

I am going to be at the Berlin SPD watch party at The Station Berlin tonight. I will be wearing my SPD t-shirt and maybe put my SAP buttons on my hoodie. I sent an email asking if i could bring my 2 meter-long SPD flag on a flagpole but i got no response 🤔 So unsure if that will be allowed in

Amazing!

I just came back from voting since I prefer to do it in person rather than by mail.

I'll be spending election night at a SPD party in our county seat Böblingen, together with several Social Democrats of various local chapters. I will try to make a few posts here at the same time. Fortunately our district has a very good chance to send a Social Democrat to Berlin since our candidate and county chairwoman Jasmina Hostert is at #9 on the state party list (the district itsself is Likely/Safe CDU). She's definitely an inspiring candidate as a single mom in the late 30s who came to Germany in the 1990s as a refugee of the Balkan wars.

I'm still pretty nervous about the result since I fear polls may underestimate the CDU. 15-20% undecideds make it a wildcard despite the fact my party was leading in the polls for six weeks.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

HAPPY ELECTION DAY // FROHEN WAHLTAG!! 🇩🇪

[Yeahsayyeah]

HAPPY ELECTION DAY // FROHEN WAHLTAG!! 🇩🇪

Some Americans could really get Mark Twain vibes by that. ;-)

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Anyone know what is the best TV news coverage for German elections? Either for English or German language?

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

Anyone know what is the best TV news coverage for German elections? Either for English or German language?

The German John King, Jörg Schönenborn, will cover the election at ARD (daserste.de). For Englisch language, I think dw-news will be sufficient, this is at least the only TV programme I can think of which might cover the election in English.

[walleye26]

Hey German posters, is DW respected in Germany? Or is it seem like PBS in America? (Good, but nobody watches it)

[sirius3100]

Hey German posters, is DW respected in Germany? Or is it seem like PBS in America? (Good, but nobody watches it)

I think that most Germans do not even know that DW exists

[President Johnson]

Lmao, Armin Laschet wrongly folds his ballot. Hopefully the sympblic picture of the day:

https://twitter.com/Regendelfin/status/1442067990556594178

[Mike88]

Lmao, Armin Laschet wrongly folds his ballot. Hopefully the sympblic picture of the day:

How can you wrongly fold a ballot?? Jesus...

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Anyone know what is the best TV news coverage for German elections? Either for English or German language?

The German John King, Jörg Schönenborn, will cover the election at ARD (daserste.de). For Englisch language, I think dw-news will be sufficient, this is at least the only TV programme I can think of which might cover the election in English.

So do BBC and CNN International. Maybe not as thoroughly as ARD or Phoenix, but still better than this forum.

In 2002, a CNN Internation reporter kept on saying "Stoiberle. Stoiberle. Stoiberle." I though she was referring to the Union's chancellor candidate Edmund Stoiber - until I realized that she was trying to pronounce Hans-Christian Ströbele's name. 😋

[President Johnson]

Lmao, Armin Laschet wrongly folds his ballot. Hopefully the sympblic picture of the day:

How can you wrongly fold a ballot?? Jesus...

Newspaper TAZ just posted a meme with the picture saying "don't worry guys, Laschet isn't aiming to become polling station volunteer, just chancellor."

[Mike88]

Lmao, Armin Laschet wrongly folds his ballot. Hopefully the sympblic picture of the day:

How can you wrongly fold a ballot?? Jesus...

Newspaper TAZ just posted a meme with the picture saying "don't worry guys, Laschet isn't aiming to become polling station volunteer, just chancellor."

Thank God for that.

[Astatine]

Trends so far hint that turnout might rise, potentially hitting the 80 % mark for the first time since 1998 - I would've expected a drop, similarly to the state elections since Covid-19.

Lower Saxony (76.4 % in 2017, excluding VBM):
10 am (2017): 9.2 %
10 am (2021): 14.3 %

Cologne (partially including VBM):
1 pm (2017): 34.9 %
1 pm (2021): 37.2 %

Nuremberg (excluding VBM):
11 am (2017): 12.4 %
11 am (2021): 14.4 %

Schleswig-Holstein (excluding VBM):
11 am (2017): 22.8 %
11 am (2021): 23.8 %

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Anyone know what is the best TV news coverage for German elections? Either for English or German language?

The most popular election coverage is broadcast on ARD for sure.
The most profound and elaborate one, however, is provided by Phoenix.
If you want news coverage in easy German and with less competent anchormen, you ought to try ZDF or Sat.1 or n.tv or WELT.
RTL and its executive anchorman Peter Kloeppel (whose Ohioan relatives are staunch Bush and Trump supporters, btw) are quite recommendable also, but they shamelessly put their livestream behind a paywall. 🤬

[walleye26]

Lmao, Armin Laschet wrongly folds his ballot. Hopefully the sympblic picture of the day:

https://twitter.com/Regendelfin/status/1442067990556594178

I know some German from high school so I was able to roughly translate this and I got a good laugh out of this. Correct me if I’m wrong, but if I’m translating this correctly she’s saying “Laschet keeps producing a**bombs every day, right up until the last second.”