🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Pick Up the Phone]

Also, isn't R2G a viable coalition?

On paper: Sure.

In practice: Not really. Mainly because SPD and GRÜNE have a lot to lose from forming a government with an erratic and capricious LINKE. Especially the Greens want to keep the many CDU/CSU + FDP voters they have drawn over the last four years. But doing so is difficult if they were to govern with a party that wants to end Germany's NATO membership - not to speak of all the dogmatic marxists and Hamas sympathizers to be found there. CDU/CSU and FDP are much more reliable partners.

Talking about a left wing bloc certainly makes sense, especially given it is the only way (other than traffic lights) to take the CDU out of the Chancellorship.

But it is necessary to get the chancellorship? Over the last decade, the GRÜNEN have been the most influential party in Germany. Merkel and her CDU/CSU were in power all the time but the GRÜNEN controlled much of the political agenda.

Also, there is an easier way than R2G (at least, there was one before the pandemic): Green-Black.

[Pick Up the Phone]

What is the profile of a CDU-Greens swing voter?

Stereotypically spoken - suburban; 35-50 years old; high-middle class; somewhat educated and interested in politics; generally liberal on social issues; moderate on fiscal issues; concerned about climate change; liked Merkel. However, I don't know if there is any empirical data on that question.

Agree, I would add from my own experience:

- Disproportionately female
- Environmentally conscious
- Professional (lawyers, doctors, teachers... also quite a few engineers/businesspeople)
- Pragmatic; turned off by ideologues

But as you said, that's the stereotype. There are also many rural low-info voters who have jumped ship in the recent past. My own aunt (a nurse and life-long CDU supporter) has recently told me that she thinks of voting for the GRÜNEN in the Baden-Württemberg state elections. She mentioned that "today's Greens are electable" and that "people like Kretschmann know that they need to reconcile environmental protection with economic necessities."

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

But as you said, that's the stereotype. There are also many rural low-info voters who have jumped ship in the recent past. My own aunt (a nurse and life-long CDU supporter) has recently told me that she thinks of voting for the GRÜNEN in the Baden-Württemberg state elections. She mentioned that "today's Greens are electable" and that "people like Kretschmann know that they need to reconcile environmental protection with economic necessities."

Anecdotal evidence and hence completely irrelevant.
I wonder if your "aunt" thought the same if she lived in Berlin or any other failed state.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

The SPD's substantial new campaign posters...

https://twitter.com/LorenzMaroldt/status/1369498761723052033

[pilskonzept]

Channeling the 1970s. What else are they going to do?

[Astatine]

The SPD's substantial new campaign posters...

https://twitter.com/LorenzMaroldt/status/1369498761723052033

So they advertise with ✊ and 👌... Gives me flashbacks to past campaigns:

[Cassius]

I like how the placeholder Latin gibberish is still on them.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

I like how the placeholder Latin gibberish is still on them.

Of course, Germans are way too stupid to understand that these are just model drafts and far from finalized and that no one actually suggested to print and distribute these, but of course, it is more fun to laugh at the SPD.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

but of course, it is more fun to laugh at the SPD.

I mean, I support them, but yes The memes have been good.

[Pick Up the Phone]

But as you said, that's the stereotype. There are also many rural low-info voters who have jumped ship in the recent past. My own aunt (a nurse and life-long CDU supporter) has recently told me that she thinks of voting for the GRÜNEN in the Baden-Württemberg state elections. She mentioned that "today's Greens are electable" and that "people like Kretschmann know that they need to reconcile environmental protection with economic necessities."

Anecdotal evidence and hence completely irrelevant.
I wonder if your "aunt" thought the same if she lived in Berlin or any other failed state.

LOL. Of course it is anecdotal evidence - that's what I said it is. You can read, can you (I sometimes doubt it)? If you want to see this substantiated by hard facts, just take a look at the Wählerwanderung statistics that Astatine has posted in this thread. You will find that there is a significant group of voters who have switched from CDU to GRÜNE in the past. And if you take a further look at their geographical distribution, you will also find that this group is not confined to urban areas. Especially not in Baden-Württemberg where many traditionally conservative areas have gone green in recent years (e.g., Bodenseekreis).

And I am pretty sure she would, by the way. To add one more anecdote: My cousin is currently pursuing her Master's at FU Berlin and she votes for the GRÜNEN there as well. #antifapower #triggered

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

DIE LINKE is having a new dual leadership soon - after nine year! It will be the first time in German history that a major party is led by two chairwomen.

Yesterday, Susanne Hennig-Wellsow (43) and Janine Wissler (39) were elected as the new party leaders on an online party convention. The results, however, remain to be confirmed via postal voting in order to become legally binding. Thus, Henning-Wellsow and Wissler succeed Katja Kipping and Bernd Riexinger, both of whom technically still act as chairpersons.

The postal voting delivered the following results: Janine Wissler received 87,9% of the vote, while Susanne Hennig-Wellsow has to content herself with 78,5%. The fact that the "moderate" harelip fares way worse than the Antifa terrorist proves how extreme DIE LINKE has become.

[Pick Up the Phone]

The fact that the "moderate" harelip fares way worse than the Antifa terrorist proves how extreme DIE LINKE has become.

In all seriousness, why do you have to constantly insult people and where does this weird Antifa fixation come from? Don't you even realize how ridiculous that is? And how stupid you look like?

For God's sake, you're really the most obsessive and compulsive user on this board.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

In all seriousness, why do you have to constantly insult people and where does this weird Antifa fixation come from? Don't you even realize how ridiculous that is? And how stupid you look like?

For God's sake, you're really the most obsessive and compulsive user on this board.

I hate all kind of extremist organizations, left-wing Antifa and right-wing QAnon equally. A victim of Antifa, Nazi, and migrant violence as well, it is understandable that I harbor deep resentment against the likes of you, especially since you live up to the stereotype of the Antifa, a character trait that you already disclosed on Holger's forum.
I do understand that, according to Plato's allegory of the cave, I have to look "ridiculous" and "stupid" when you look up to me.
For a relatively "fresh" with only 300 posts you are extremely arrogant and disrespectful. I don't think there has ever been a member on the whole forum that behaved as superciliously and irreverently against an established member as you do, spilling so much hatred, bile and blood...

[Tender Branson]

In all seriousness, why do you have to constantly insult people and where does this weird Antifa fixation come from? Don't you even realize how ridiculous that is? And how stupid you look like?

For God's sake, you're really the most obsessive and compulsive user on this board.

I hate all kind of extremist organizations, left-wing Antifa and right-wing QAnon equally. A victim of Antifa, Nazi, and migrant violence as well, it is understandable that I harbor deep resentment against the likes of you, especially since you live up to the stereotype of the Antifa, a character trait that you already disclosed on Holger's forum.
I do understand that, according to Plato's allegory of the cave, I have to look "ridiculous" and "stupid" when you look up to me.
For a relatively "fresh" with only 300 posts you are extremely arrogant and disrespectful. I don't think there has ever been a member on the whole forum that behaved as superciliously and irreverently against an established member as you do, spilling so much hatred, bile and blood...

That’s so typical on this Forum and other places.

I frequently attack both the left and right and then leftist posters attack me because they cannot stand any criticism when it comes to their „natural habitat“.

As if they are our moral overlords and everything they say and post about uncontrolled immigration/open borders is the law of the land.

It’s not.

And I will constantly remind them (and to what excesses it leads).

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

In all seriousness, why do you have to constantly insult people and where does this weird Antifa fixation come from? Don't you even realize how ridiculous that is? And how stupid you look like?

For God's sake, you're really the most obsessive and compulsive user on this board.

I hate all kind of extremist organizations, left-wing Antifa and right-wing QAnon equally. A victim of Antifa, Nazi, and migrant violence as well, it is understandable that I harbor deep resentment against the likes of you, especially since you live up to the stereotype of the Antifa, a character trait that you already disclosed on Holger's forum.
I do understand that, according to Plato's allegory of the cave, I have to look "ridiculous" and "stupid" when you look up to me.
For a relatively "fresh" with only 300 posts you are extremely arrogant and disrespectful. I don't think there has ever been a member on the whole forum that behaved as superciliously and irreverently against an established member as you do, spilling so much hatred, bile and blood...

That’s so typical on this Forum and other places.

I frequently attack both the left and right and then leftist posters attack me because they cannot stand any criticism when it comes to their „natural habitat“.

As if they are our moral overlords and everything they say and post about uncontrolled immigration/open borders is the law of the land.

It’s not.

And I will constantly remind them (and to what excesses it leads).

The worst thing the telephonist did (aside from downplaying the prevalent clan crime) is deriding Ali Utlu for his police protection he receives owing to death threats from Nazis, Muslims and the Antifa. That guy really hit the jackpot. Moreover, the telephonist turns Utlu's homosexuality into ridicule by pretending he were gay himself, only in order to morally justify his sheer malice against Utlu.

[Tender Branson]

In all seriousness, why do you have to constantly insult people and where does this weird Antifa fixation come from? Don't you even realize how ridiculous that is? And how stupid you look like?

For God's sake, you're really the most obsessive and compulsive user on this board.

I hate all kind of extremist organizations, left-wing Antifa and right-wing QAnon equally. A victim of Antifa, Nazi, and migrant violence as well, it is understandable that I harbor deep resentment against the likes of you, especially since you live up to the stereotype of the Antifa, a character trait that you already disclosed on Holger's forum.
I do understand that, according to Plato's allegory of the cave, I have to look "ridiculous" and "stupid" when you look up to me.
For a relatively "fresh" with only 300 posts you are extremely arrogant and disrespectful. I don't think there has ever been a member on the whole forum that behaved as superciliously and irreverently against an established member as you do, spilling so much hatred, bile and blood...

That’s so typical on this Forum and other places.

I frequently attack both the left and right and then leftist posters attack me because they cannot stand any criticism when it comes to their „natural habitat“.

As if they are our moral overlords and everything they say and post about uncontrolled immigration/open borders is the law of the land.

It’s not.

And I will constantly remind them (and to what excesses it leads).

The worst thing the telephonist did (aside from downplaying the prevalent clan crime) is deriding Ali Utlu for his police protection he receives owing to death threats from Nazis, Muslims and the Antifa. That guy really hit the jackpot. Moreover, the telephonist turns Utlu's homosexuality into ridicule by pretending he were gay himself, only in order to morally justify his sheer malice against Utlu.

Wasn’t there a mosque woman in Berlin too who needs constant police protection now because she’s from the liberal wing of Islam and gets constant death threats by recently arrived backwards Muslim immigrants ? But also extremist German muslims who’s parents came as guest workers ?

This pretty much tells you all you need to know and why we must stop all further immigration from these Arab/African regions.

Educated/liberal Muslims are welcome IMO, but not the extremist plague that makes up the majority of wannabe immigrants.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Wasn’t there a mosque woman in Berlin too who needs constant police protection now because she’s from the liberal wing of Islam and gets constant death threats by recently arrived backwards Muslim immigrants ? But also extremist German muslims who’s parents came as guest workers ?

This pretty much tells you all you need to know and why we must stop all further immigration from these Arab/African regions.

Educated/liberal Muslims are welcome IMO, but not the extremist plague that makes up the majority of wannabe immigrants.

I also know of an Austrian Muslim, Sabatina James, who is perpetually protected by bodyguards because she refused to enter into forced marriage.

[Tender Branson]

Wasn’t there a mosque woman in Berlin too who needs constant police protection now because she’s from the liberal wing of Islam and gets constant death threats by recently arrived backwards Muslim immigrants ? But also extremist German muslims who’s parents came as guest workers ?

This pretty much tells you all you need to know and why we must stop all further immigration from these Arab/African regions.

Educated/liberal Muslims are welcome IMO, but not the extremist plague that makes up the majority of wannabe immigrants.

I also know of an Austrian Muslim, Sabatina James, who is perpetually protected by bodyguards because she refused to enter into forced marriage.

I’m pretty sure the so-called „feminist/pro-women“ posters on here from the Left will find excuses why this is not a bad thing after all and excuses to let in more backwards immigrants.

And they call me misogynistic ...

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Wasn’t there a mosque woman in Berlin too who needs constant police protection now because she’s from the liberal wing of Islam and gets constant death threats by recently arrived backwards Muslim immigrants ? But also extremist German muslims who’s parents came as guest workers ?

This pretty much tells you all you need to know and why we must stop all further immigration from these Arab/African regions.

Educated/liberal Muslims are welcome IMO, but not the extremist plague that makes up the majority of wannabe immigrants.

I also know of an Austrian Muslim, Sabatina James, who is perpetually protected by bodyguards because she refused to enter into forced marriage.

I’m pretty sure the so-called „feminist/pro-women“ posters on here from the Left will find excuses why this is not a bad thing after all and excuses to let in more backwards immigrants.

And they call me misogynistic ...

You bet! Former presidential candidate Gesine Schwan made use of whataboutism and thus downplayed the over 600 sex assaults committed during the infamous Cologne New Year's Eve.

[buritobr]

Umfrage Forsa, the first one in which some data was collected after the 2 state elections

CDU/CSU 29%
Grüne 21%
SPD 16%
AfD 10%
Linke 8%
FDP 8%
Sonstige 8%

The sum green-red-red is 45%. The sum of the other parties that will have seats is 47%. For the first time, the sum green-red-red is close to majority, the difference is inside the margin of error.

[Astatine]

Umfrage Forsa, the first one in which some data was collected after the 2 state elections

CDU/CSU 29%
Grüne 21%
SPD 16%
AfD 10%
Linke 8%
FDP 8%
Sonstige 8%

The sum green-red-red is 45%. The sum of the other parties that will have seats is 47%. For the first time, the sum green-red-red is close to majority, the difference is inside the margin of error.

(parliamentary majorities for coalitions, see May 2019-March 2019 period)

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

[CumbrianLefty]

If the SPD could just get to around 20% again, things would be interesting indeed.

[buritobr]

INSA March 20th 2021

CDU/CSU 28%, Grüne 20%, SPD 18%, AfD 11%, FDP 10%, Linke 8%, Sonstige 5%

green-red-red is close to have the majority of the seats

[parochial boy]

Thing is, at pretty much this time 4 years ago, the SPD had just named Schulz as Kanzlerkandidat and everyone was going "what if? this time? maybe". And, well, we know how that ended.

If things still look tight in July, then maybe - but for now, assume this is just a bump relating to the mask scandal and exacerbated by the two landtag elections and the stumbling Covid management; and come the summer these will be forgotten, the Union will have named Söder and things will be running as normal.