🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I don't know if anyone has already mentioned it, but the following bar graph says it all:

[CumbrianLefty]

So are we expected to believe some AfD voters have gone to the Greens?

There is this thing called "churn"......

But yeah, that a relatively small number might have done that isn't so outlandish shurely?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

So are we expected to believe some AfD voters have gone to the Greens?

There is this thing called "churn"......

But yeah, that a relatively small number might have done that isn't so outlandish shurely?

During the European election, they indeed did:



Here's an interactive overview about all shift of votes.

[rob in cal]

  It would be intresting to see what would happen if the Greens went way over to the right on immigration and retained their other policies.  Would they be able to absorb lots of voters on the right, and still retain the bulk of their current voters?

[Oryxslayer]

There are two more likely situations though: that the voters switching nationally right now are afd -> union, and union is losing more but it is hidden behind these vote gains, or youth (green) turnout is projected to be up and so everyone is getting pushed down.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

It would be intresting to see what would happen if the Greens went way over to the right on immigration and retained their other policies.  Would they be able to absorb lots of voters on the right, and still retain the bulk of their current voters?

You mean like the Baden-Württemberg Greens do?
They are pretty right-wing and have only few in common with the latte liberal Greens from Prenzlauer Berg.
Tübingen Mayor Boris Palmer, for example, regularly provokes fierce public controversy; just recently he complained about the German railway company Deutsche Bahn not showing enough Germans without a migratory background in their advertisements. The controversy he caused was so bitter that other Green politicians pressed for his exclusion.

[Former President tack50]

It would be intresting to see what would happen if the Greens went way over to the right on immigration and retained their other policies.  Would they be able to absorb lots of voters on the right, and still retain the bulk of their current voters?

You mean like the Baden-Württemberg Greens do?
They are pretty right-wing and have only few in common with the latte liberal Greens from Prenzlauer Berg.
Tübingen Mayor Boris Palmer, for example, regularly provokes fierce public controversy; just recently he complained about the German railway company Deutsche Bahn not showing enough Germans without a migratory background in their advertisements. The controversy he caused was so bitter that other Green politicians pressed for his exclusion.

Huh, I thought the BW Greens (or conserva-greens in general) were more of the "socially liberal, fiscally right wing style" and not the other way around

[parochial boy]

So are we expected to believe some AfD voters have gone to the Greens?

Apparently many young Afd branches are quite pissed about the Party not recognising and not wanting to fight climate change. (https://www.rbb24.de/politik/wahl/Europawahl/beitraege/afd-kurswechsel-klimapolitik-junge-alternative-berlin.html) So i guess it is young 2017 Afd voters, who agree with the Afd on Immigration (i.e. Preservation of Germanys demographics), but who dont like their climate change policy (i.e. NOT preserving German Nature) switching to the greens.

that's an interesting point actually. Quite a few European hard-right parties seem to have moved towards importing US culture war style climate denial into their programmes; potentially as a response to other parties moving on to "their turf" in terms of immigration plus an overall movement in favour of the EU in terms of public opinion.

I'm not sure that's a wise tactic really, as climate denial doesn't really have much of a following in Europe. They had some polling to that effect here recently, and even 50% of SVP supporters think the party isn't doing enough to combat climate change - and the SVP is probably one of the less climate-sceptic Euro RWPP's.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

It would be intresting to see what would happen if the Greens went way over to the right on immigration and retained their other policies.  Would they be able to absorb lots of voters on the right, and still retain the bulk of their current voters?

You mean like the Baden-Württemberg Greens do?
They are pretty right-wing and have only few in common with the latte liberal Greens from Prenzlauer Berg.
Tübingen Mayor Boris Palmer, for example, regularly provokes fierce public controversy; just recently he complained about the German railway company Deutsche Bahn not showing enough Germans without a migratory background in their advertisements. The controversy he caused was so bitter that other Green politicians pressed for his exclusion.

Huh, I thought the BW Greens (or conserva-greens in general) were more of the "socially liberal, fiscally right wing style" and not the other way around

Not the other way round, they are both: fiscally and socially (relatively) conservative. Plus strictly anti-vaxx.
The rise of the Greens occurred in 2010 when Stuttgart 21, a railroad project that is supposed to turn Stuttgart Main Station from a terminal station into a through station, thus destroying many green areas around the station. The CDU/FDP government under Stefan Mappus was so right-wing and authoritarian that they had the demonstrations brutally quelled. That plus the Fukushima disaster caused the inevitable rise of the Greens in Swabia.
That Stuttgart 21 project is still not finished, btw.
The BW are furthermore so pro-economy that one of Germany's most successful and wealthiest businessmen, Wolfgang Grupp, who has his apparel solely and exclusively produced in Germany, endorsed the Greens for the 2016 state election.

As many of you seem to speak/understand German for some inexplicable reasons, here is a song by German's second-biggest and third-best satire show extra 3 about BW Governor Winfried Kretschmann:

[CumbrianLefty]

Its hard to see what the SPD could do to slip even further into irrelevance, but they will probably manage it.

Some of us predicted this when they agreed to another GroKo.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Its hard to see what the SPD could do to slip even further into irrelevance, but they will probably manage it.

Some of us predicted this when they agreed to another GroKo.

Yup, Nahles just resigned as Party and Parliamentary leader.

🦀*cue the crab rave* 🦀

I dont see the next Spd leader being some sort of corbyn-style "leave the coaltion" guy (like Comrade Kühnert), but this party (and this goverment) is definitely in free-fall. This feels alot like Austria in early 2017.

She hasn't resigned yet; she merely announced her purpose of resignation in the future.

[pilskonzept]

Well, this was inevitable after Scholz, Dreyer and Schwesig published a letter declaring their "full support" for Nahles.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Well, this was inevitable after Scholz, Dreyer and Schwesig published a letter declaring their "full support" for Nahles.

When will Merkel finally express her fullest confidence in AKK? 

[Tender Branson]

If our ÖVP-FPÖ government were still in office and running smoothly, I would make some jokes about Nahles now, being a clown etc., but considering our own state right now, I'm not ...

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Yeah, she has not given a date yet, but she will announce it tomorrow probably, when she makes the official statement.
There have been rumors in the press about a possible party coup by Martin Schultz Schulz, so he is a possible candidate. Maybe Ralf Stegner too (who has 0 Charisma but is on the left of the party)? Otherwise maybe scholtz will, if they want stick to their current course? I cant imagine anyone really wanting the job though, since a number of possible sub-10% state elections for the spd are coming up in the east.

Are you talking about the party chairmanship or faction leadership, both of which Nahles is about to resign?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

If our ÖVP-FPÖ government were still in office and running smoothly, I would make some jokes about Nahles now, being a clown etc., but considering our own state right now, I'm not ...

How dare some make jokes about a lovely lady like Andrea Nahles...

Or about Nahles and AKK at the same time... 

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Yeah, she has not given a date yet, but she will announce it tomorrow probably, when she makes the official statement.
There have been rumors in the press about a possible party coup by Martin Schultz Schulz, so he is a possible candidate. Maybe Ralf Stegner too (who has 0 Charisma but is on the left of the party)? Otherwise maybe scholtz will, if they want stick to their current course? I cant imagine anyone really wanting the job though, since a number of possible sub-10% state elections for the spd are coming up in the east.

Are you talking about the party chairmanship or faction leadership, both of which Nahles is about to resign?

The party chairmanship and the position of Spitzenkandidat in a eventual (snap?) election.

If we strictly abide by the law of the series, Vice-Chancellor Olaf Scholz ought to become the next chancellery candidate: Scharping - Schröder - Schteinmeier - Schteinbrück - Chulz Schulz - Scholz ...
Okay, Stegner would also fulfull that condition, but he is done with politics. He has just recently resigned as chairman of the Schleswig-Holstein state SPD. He could not become Bundestag faction leader, as he is a member of the Schleswig-Holstein Landtag.

[CumbrianLefty]

Its hard to see what the SPD could do to slip even further into irrelevance, but they will probably manage it.

Some of us predicted this when they agreed to another GroKo.

Yup, Nahles just resigned as Party and Parliamentary leader.

🦀*cue the crab rave* 🦀

I dont see the next Spd leader being some sort of corbyn-style "leave the coaltion" guy (like Comrade Kühnert), but this party (and this goverment) is definitely in free-fall. This feels alot like Austria in early 2017.

She hasn't resigned yet; she merely announced her purpose of resignation in the future.

Ah, so she is following the Theresa May playbook - I can see that ending well

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Here are some updates as concerning the SPD drama:

Nahles obviously also wants to resign her Bundestag seat.
Former SPD-SH chairman Ralf Stegner proposed determining the new chairperson via primary election.
(That happened in 1993, when 1994 chancellery candidate Rudolf Scharping beat future chancellor Gerhard Schröder and left-wing populist Heidemarie Wieczorek-Zeul, and in 1995, when Scharping succumbed to Oskar Lafontaine in a very close primary election.)
Rhineland-Palatinate Governor Malu Dreyer is reported to become the interim chairwoman.
Vice-Chancellor and Finance Minister Olaf Scholz declined the offer of becoming chairman or faction leader.

And here are the greatest hits Andreas Nahles: Schnuffi Buffi, Mindestlohni, Bätschi, or otherwise she's gonna smash your face in! 😂

[Lechasseur]

Vice-Chancellor and Finance Minister Olaf Scholz declined the offer of becoming chairman or faction leader.

I take it none of the major figures in the party want the poisoned chalice known as the SPD chairmanship?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Vice-Chancellor and Finance Minister Olaf Scholz declined the offer of becoming chairman or faction leader.

I take it none of the major figures in the party want the poisoned chalice known as the SPD chairmanship?

LOL. The opposite is true. A rumor is circulating that three Social Democrats at wants want share that position:
RP Governor Malu Dreyer, MV Governor Manuela Schwesig and Hesse thrice-non-Governor Schäfer-Gümbel want to occupy the chairmanship provisionally. TOGETHER!

Some unknown member of parliament, Ralf Mützenich, is to act as interim parliamentary group leader.
It is reported that Achim Post is likely to eventually become the new faction leader. Both Mützenich and Post are currently deputy chairmen of the SPD Bundestag faction.

[pilskonzept]

I'd actually like to see a return of Schulz, because he's obviously NOT WOKE and everyone who is WOKE is going to vote Green anyway these days.

Mind you, this would have been part of Nahles' appeal as well if she hadn't done a 180 on GroKo - but leaving the coalition is only necessary, not sufficient.

[Lechasseur]

I'd actually like to see a return of Schulz, because he's obviously NOT WOKE and everyone who is WOKE is going to vote Green anyway these days.

How is Schulz not woke?

Mind you, this would have been part of Nahles' appeal as well if she hadn't done a 180 on GroKo - but leaving the coalition is only necessary, not sufficient.

Yeah, the SPD is toast, they're going to end up just like the French PS.

In both countries, going forward the main leftwing party will be the Green Party.

[pilskonzept]

How is Schulz not woke?

Have you ever seen him on TV?

Yeah, the SPD is toast, they're going to end up just like the French PS.

In both countries, going forward the main leftwing party will be the Green Party.

Agree.

[Lechasseur]

How is Schulz not woke?

Have you ever seen him on TV?

Nope