🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Lord Halifax]

When will we see the first poll with the Greens ahead?

Probably/hopefully never. The CSU is soon going to announce their chancellor candidate, and once the media constantly mention Söder's name in their news coverage ad nauseam, it will give him and his party a boost.

The "first polls" with the Greens ahead already happened in Summer of 2019:

I meant in the run-up to the election. Everything pre-Covid is irrelevant now.

[President Johnson]

I won't give up hope the SPD can overtake the Greens in the final months. There's a small surge in recent weeks and it's only about five points on average to overcome. Olaf Scholz is definitely far more qualified for chancellor than Habeck or Baerbock. Objectively, he's even more qualified than Söder and Laschet. And I tend to believe the FDP would be more comfortable to enter a Trafficlight coalition under a Chancellor Scholz, who's always been a more centrist and pragmatic Social Democrat.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

What do you make of Strobl's public support for Laschet saying it's his impression all the state parties agree Laschet is the right candidate?

That shows how completely irrelevant and incompetent Strobl is. He is a genuine left-green Merkelist and therefore he disdains his party and his home country. Of course, he has Germany's worst interests at heart.

BaWü, along with the East and Hamburg, were supposed to be the state parties favorable to Söder.

What gives you that idea? Why should they want somebody to run who is viewed as even less electable than one of the most incompetent politicians of Germany?

[Lord Halifax]

BaWü, along with the East and Hamburg, were supposed to be the state parties favorable to Söder.

What gives you that idea? Why should they want somebody to run who is viewed as even less electable than one of the most incompetent politicians of Germany?

As (mostly) pro-Merz areas they were expected to be skeptical of Laschet and most likely to prefer Söder.

Did you misread what I wrote? Söder is not viewed as "less electable" than Baerbock and the poll you posted compares her to Laschet.

[Pick Up the Phone]

I won't give up hope the SPD can overtake the Greens in the final months.

Obviously, I don't share your hope. But I also don't see this as a particularly realistic scenario. The media will focus on the Green Kanzlerkandidat*in once he/she is announced and start creating a "Green vs. CDU" narrative soon after. Especially if it is Habeck. The SPD will be sidelined and ignored.

There's a small surge in recent weeks and it's only about five points on average to overcome.

But where should these points come from? Generic center-left voters who are sick and tired of CDU rule have no reason to switch from the Greens to the SPD. The former are a much better bet.

Neither do voters who are unhappy with the government's COVID-19 policies etc. or the SPD's Grand coalition performance - and many low-info voters won't even realize that Scholz is running.  

Olaf Scholz is definitely far more qualified for chancellor than Habeck or Baerbock.

Doubtful. He's definitely more experienced in federal politics but that is not tantamount to being more qualified.  

Objectively, he's even more qualified than Söder and Laschet.

See above. I don't think that there is any objective measure that allows us to objectively evaluate such differences. These are all professionals and e.g. Laschet's resume is not that bad: Minister at the state level for more than ten years, beating the SPD in its heartland in 2017 (CDU: +6.9%!), governing Germany's most populous and most important state for more than four years... and winning the CDU leadership election.

By the way: It's really hilarious how often Laschet is underestimated but ends up winning. No one should be surprised if he is Chancellor one year from now.

And I tend to believe the FDP would be more comfortable to enter a Trafficlight coalition under a Chancellor Scholz, who's always been a more centrist and pragmatic Social Democrat.

Probably. But why should the Greens enter such a coalition? Black-Green would give them more power and minimize the risk of the SPD recovering at their expense.

[Pick Up the Phone]

By the way, people should stop taking Kanzlerkandiat*innen polls too serious at this stage. No one in the next CDU board meeting will say: "Armin, we really like you and you're our party leader, but the ZDF Politbarometer says that the voters prefer Markus..."

Polls also showed that CDU members/voters preferred Friedrich Merz as their chairman. The party did not care.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Olaf Scholz is definitely far more qualified for chancellor than Habeck or Baerbock. Objectively, he's even more qualified than Söder and Laschet.

What makes you think that? During his tenure as Federal Minister for Social Affairs, the "Optionsmodell" was ruled unconstitutional. Asked by a reporter to what extent "Optionskommunen" are incompatible with the Basic Law, he reacted snitty from embarrassment, as he didn't know the answer, and walked away without saying a word.

And I tend to believe the FDP would be more comfortable to enter a Trafficlight coalition under a Chancellor Scholz, who's always been a more centrist and pragmatic Social Democrat.

And there he faces the same fundamental problem as Steinbrück and Schmidt: If you intend to vote for Scholz because of his centrist stance, you will also get Eskja, Eva Högl, Kevin Kühnert, Michael Roth, Sönke Rix, Florian Pronold, Niels Annen, Christine Lambrecht and, above all, AOC's malignant twin sister Soßan Chebli.

[Lord Halifax]

Black-Green would give them more power and minimize the risk of the SPD recovering at their expense.

Could you elaborate on that? Black-Green would make SPD the main opposition party, in most countries that would be a much better position for recovering than being the junior partner in a coalition.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Did you misread what I wrote? Söder is not viewed as "less electable" than Baerbock and the poll you posted compares her to Laschet.

I cut your quote at the wrong part. Sorry!
I meant to say what makes you think that Strobl is right with his estimation in regard to Laschet's favorability within the CDU.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Black-Green would give them more power and minimize the risk of the SPD recovering at their expense.

Could you elaborate on that? Black-Green would make SPD the main opposition party, in most countries that would be a much better position for recovering than being the junior partner in a coalition.

The Greens have two strategic goals. The first one is to govern (which they will either way). The second one is to become Germany's dominant center-left party and consolidate this position. And to reach this second goal, they have to prevent a SPD chancellor. Germans love their incumbents and a 'traffic light' coalition under SPD leadership would provide the SPD with an opportunity to stage a 'come back' at their expense and reverse the trends of the last years.

Of course, you're right that main opposition parties recover from time to time but this is not a given. Think about the Republicans in France and Labour in the UK. Or think about the (awful) CDU-FDP coalition that governed Germany from 2009 to 2013. Did the SPD benefit from it? Not really. They gained 2.7% compared to the CDU's 7.7%.

Of course, being the junior partner in a CDU-led coalition can be dangerous as well. But the Greens have two reasons to think that they might fare better than e.g. the FDP. (1) Merkel is no longer there and the CDU is weaker and more divided than at any time in the last fifteen years. (2) They 'own' the most important issue of 21st century politics: climate change. And they will make sure that it dominates the headlines once COVID-19 is over.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Great! The Gendersternchen is now also encroaching upon Atlas.
As if it weren't obnoxious enough that the Antifa has been trying to contaminate German websites and missives; now they even try to infect anglophone websites with their left-wing populist, misandrist propaganda by means of that artificial glyph... 🤬 🤢 🤮

[Pick Up the Phone]

Great! The Gendersternchen is now also encroaching upon Atlas.
As if it weren't obnoxious enough that the Antifa has been trying to contaminate German websites and missives; now they even try to infect anglophone websites with their left-wing populist, misandrist propaganda by means of that artificial glyph... 🤬 🤢 🤮

#Antifa #misandry #mostcompulsiveNutzer*in

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Great! The Gendersternchen is now also encroaching upon Atlas.
As if it weren't obnoxious enough that the Antifa has been trying to contaminate German websites and missives; now they even try to infect anglophone websites with their left-wing populist, misandrist propaganda by means of that artificial glyph... 🤬 🤢 🤮

#Antifa #misandry #mostcompulsiveNutzer*in

I'm so glad that hashtags still don't work in combination with those Gendersternchen...

Btw, only boomers still use that toxic thing. Real woke SJWs say das Bundeskanzler"."

[Lord Halifax]

Did you misread what I wrote? Söder is not viewed as "less electable" than Baerbock and the poll you posted compares her to Laschet.

I cut your quote at the wrong part. Sorry!
I meant to say what makes you think that Strobl is right with his estimation in regard to Laschet's favorability within the CDU.

No idea. I'm just trying to follow what German pundits and political journalists write about the situation and they seem to emphasize that most of the CDU are backing Laschet due to a mix of loyalty, fear and uncertainty about whether Söder wants to run in the current situation.

As an outsider I expected Söder to have this in the bag due to the big difference in polling numbers, but it's clear that's not the way it's viewed by a lot of ppl who are following German politics professionally. For what it's worth the betting markets are also moving towards Laschet (or at least away from Söder) atm.

You claimed that CSU would soon present a chancellor candidate, was that an error (did you mean CDU/CSU?) or do you expect them to formally present Söder as their candidate?

[Lord Halifax]

Of course, you're right that main opposition parties recover from time to time but this is not a given. Think about the Republicans in France and Labour in the UK. Or think about the (awful) CDU-FDP coalition that governed Germany from 2009 to 2013. Did the SPD benefit from it? Not really. They gained 2.7% compared to the CDU's 7.7%.

As a general rule being the main opposition party is a strong position, unless the party system is hegemonic or quasi-hegemonic like the Japanese, and usually a lot better than being the junior partner in a coalition.

It makes sense that German political culture has a strong pro-incumbency bias which changes the relative value of different options.

I don't want to derail the thread, but the UK is a bad example since it clearly hurt the LibDems to go into coalition with the Tories and it was vital for Labour to retain their status as the main opposition party post-Brexit (being able to squeeze the LibDem and Green vote), something that briefly seemed under threat. In a FPTP system being the main opposition party is even more valuable than in a more proportional system (e.g. if the NDP ever became the main opposition party in Canada the Liberals might conceivably implode, and if the rump-Liberals then joined a Tory government as a junior partner they'd likely sign their own death warrant).

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

You claimed that CSU would soon present a chancellor candidate, was that an error (did you mean CDU/CSU?) or do you expect them to formally present Söder as their candidate?

No, I just wanted to emphasize (in a sarcastic manner) that Söder is a CSU member and that the CSU is currently holding the reins. Cause everybody in the CDU knows that the CDU is likely to trail the Greens in case of a Laschet nomination.
It's not a new phenomenon, btw, that the CDU harbors resentments to the CSU. Hesse Governor Volker Bouffier regularly attacked Bavaria's former Governor Horst Seehofer. For instance, he held him at fault for the relatively bad state election results in Hesse and Bavaria in 2018, and he called him a wussy ("Weichei") in 2016.
Plus, Kohl and Strauß despised each other. Deeply.
Merkel and Stoiber hate each other, too, albeit not to the same extent as Kohl and Strauß.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Of course, you're right that main opposition parties recover from time to time but this is not a given. Think about the Republicans in France and Labour in the UK. Or think about the (awful) CDU-FDP coalition that governed Germany from 2009 to 2013. Did the SPD benefit from it? Not really. They gained 2.7% compared to the CDU's 7.7%.

As a general rule being the main opposition party is a strong position, unless the party system is hegemonic or quasi-hegemonic like the Japanese, and usually a lot better than being the junior partner in a coalition.

This might be a "general rule" but there are plenty of counterexamples, especially in the German context. Think about the CDU-Greens coalition in Hesse, for instance. The Greens almost doubled their result in 2018 (from 8.7% to 19.8%), whereas the SPD as main opposition party completely collpased (from 30.7% to 19.8%). They also won big in Hamburg despite being the junior coalition partner. Same in Bremen or Schleswsig-Holstein.

And the list of opposition parties that dreamed of 'quick recovery' but then faded into irrelevance is considerable. I don't see the SPD recovering in the foreseeable future - except if they lead the government. And if they Greens are smart, they'll do their best to prevent this.

I don't want to derail the thread, but the UK is a bad example since it clearly hurt the LibDems to go into coalition with the Tories and it was vital for Labour to retain their status as the main opposition party post-Brexit (being able to squeeze the LibDem and Green vote), something that briefly seemed under threat. In a FPTP system being the main opposition party is even more valuable than in a more proportional system (e.g. if the NDP ever became the main opposition party in Canada the Liberals might conceivably implode, and if the rump-Liberals then joined a Tory government as a junior partner they'd likely sign their own death warrant).

This is certainly correct. I just remember many Labour optimists who talked about "recovering in opposition" in 2010 and that this would allow them to come back in no time. Eleven years and three election defeats later, they're not so optimistic anymore. There's no automatism of any kind.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

RIP in peace, Armin Laschet

https://twitter.com/olivernmoody/status/1376269886465449986

[brucejoel99]

RIP in peace, Armin Laschet

https://twitter.com/olivernmoody/status/1376269886465449986

Congratulations, Chancellor Söder

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

RIP in peace, Armin Laschet

https://twitter.com/olivernmoody/status/1376269886465449986

Do you already know the running gag / meme about Merkel publicly placing her fullest trust in her intra-party opponents?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Yeah, it was kind of unusual for Germany, eh?

She was interviewed by Das Erste where she harshly criticized the states, and when asked if Lanschet was circumventing the [lock-down] deal, she answered that he was, though not the only one. After the interview there were [on Tagesthemen] among other... Söder aligning himself with Merkel, calling for more and stricter restriction, and more management on national level.

In my opinion, the main f**k-up of Germany/EU is vaccines, but Merkel put the main blame on the states, and indirectly on Laschet. Well...  go, Söder!

https://www.ft.com/content/6c81cea8-cd5e-4324-9903-67cd7d45ba41
Merkel rails at German states for taking foot off ‘emergency brake’
Chancellor attacks reopening of regional economies and raises prospect of nationwide curfew

Angela Merkel has attacked the leaders of Germany’s regions, saying they should not be moving to reopen their economies and raising the prospect of nationwide curfews to slow the spread of coronavirus.

In a wide-ranging interview on the German television channel ARD, Merkel faulted some of the 16 states for failing to implement an “emergency brake” agreed on March 3. This would halt all moves to relax lockdowns as soon as the number of infections rose above 100 per 100,000 people over seven days.

“Unfortunately, it is not being adhered to everywhere,” she said. “There are several states that are interpreting it very broadly, and that doesn’t fill me with joy.”

“What depresses and vexes me is that the good parts of a resolution are implemented, . . . but the difficult part isn’t, as I would wish it to be,” she told the interviewer, Anne Will.

[...]

Merkel was highly critical of states that were moving ahead with lifting the curbs on economic activity that have been in force since November. “Where the impression is being made that we can open things up — that is not the order of the day,” she said.

[...]

She also criticised the actions of Armin Laschet, prime minister of the populous state of North Rhine-Westphalia, who was elected leader of her CDU party in January. He has said the emergency brake will be applied only in certain districts, not the whole state.

When asked by Will if Laschet was violating the principle of the emergency brake with such a selective approach, she said: “Yes, but he’s not the only one.”

Tagesthemen with Söder:
https://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/video/video-842637.html

[Former President tack50]

At this rate I guess Merkel hopefully runs for a fifth term

[Astatine]

At this rate I guess Merkel hopefully runs for a fifth term

Absolutely no chance at all.

[Tender Branson]

A Syrian refugee has revoked his direct seat candidacy for the German Bundestag (for the Greens), after murder threats against him and his family:

https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/bundestagskandidatur-tareq-alaows-syrer-rueckzug-1.5251729

He doesn’t even have German citizenship yet, so he couldn’t have run for the seat anyway.

The Greens are „outraged“ about the „racism“ against him though.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

A Syrian refugee has revoked his direct seat candidacy for the German Bundestag (for the Greens), after murder threats against him and his family:

https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/bundestagskandidatur-tareq-alaows-syrer-rueckzug-1.5251729

He doesn’t even have German citizenship yet, so he couldn’t have run for the seat anyway.

The Greens are „outraged“ about the „racism“ against him though.

I can't even finish the first sentence of that article without getting high blood pressure. This is what woke SWJ vocabulary brings us: bad and inconsistent language... 😒