🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[palandio]

Thing is, at pretty much this time 4 years ago, the SPD had just named Schulz as Kanzlerkandidat and everyone was going "what if? this time? maybe". And, well, we know how that ended.

If things still look tight in July, then maybe - but for now, assume this is just a bump relating to the mask scandal and exacerbated by the two landtag elections and the stumbling Covid management; and come the summer these will be forgotten, the Union will have named Söder and things will be running as normal.

It's probably a question of perspective and what you regard as 'normal'.

2017 polling saw first the Schulz hype (starting with his nomination on January 24 and ending somewhere in April) and then a superficial CDU/CSU rebounce to almost 40% which was by many erroneously interpreted as a return to normalcy. It turned out that the real normalcy was closer to the polling in 2016 prior to the Schulz hype, with CDU/CSU in the low 30s.

At the moment it can be argued that the CDU/CSU polling in the high 30s over the last year was the anomaly and that we're now returning to pre-COVID normalcy. If you look at the CDU/CSU's polling numbers over time you see that they began to drop before the mask scandals and the landtag elections. The leadership and direction issues that the CDU had until March 2020 are still unsolved for the most part, although it is possible that Söder can be a part of the solution. A lot will depend on COVID. If politics and its communication is kept the same as during the past months, then there will be no way back to the high 30s. Relegating COVID to second tier during the election campaign will not work, particularly when you don't have real alternative campaign themes and run an idiotically ignorant campaign like in 2017 ("For a country in which we live well and happily"). The CDU/CSU in 2017 thought that the difficulties from 2015/16 were forgotten, too, but during a content-free campaign, voters began to remember. Only a real success in fighting the pandemic and restoring societal normalcy can save the CDU/CSU. Because of his hardline stance, Söder's political fate will be particularly tied to the success of Germany's COVID policy.

Of course the CDU/CSU is only one of the parties involved, so your point about the SPD and the Schulz hype in 2017 is valid.

[President Johnson]

If the Union drops below 30% in September, it's actually possible another government is able to gain a political and mathematical majority. Six months of course is a long time and politics, but the CDU/CSU corruption scandals keep popping up and people get increasingly frustrated with the pandemic missmanagement. And latter especially with the leadership from Union politicans both federal and at the state level.

The SPD just needs a few more points to overtake the Greens to make Olaf Scholz chancellor and either form a red-red-green or (preferably in my opinion) trafficlight coalition. Scholz can make a real case that he's a pragmatic and experienced leader while neither Habeck nor Baerbock come close to his resume as former Labor Minister, First Mayor of Hamburg and now Finance Minister.

I think CDU/CSU desperately need to go back into opposition. They have no new ideas for the future, especially in areas in which we're lagging behind. Not to mention their corruption issues that have revealed deep seated structural problems. A traffic light coalition, despite the differences between SPD/Greens and FDP, could set new impulses in securing social safety in the era of globalization and bringing together environmental protection and sound economic policies paired with a pro-EU, reliable foreign policy.

[buritobr]

Kantar Emnid March 20th 2021

CDU/CSU 27%, Grüne 22%, SPD 17%, FDP 10%, AfD 10%, Linke 8%

green-red-red = 47%, CxU+FDP+AfD = 47%
green-red-yellow = 49%, CxU+AfD+Linke = 45%

According to this most recent poll, both green-red-red and green-red-yellow could be possible

[Pick Up the Phone]

Kantar Emnid March 20th 2021

CDU/CSU 27%, Grüne 22%, SPD 17%, FDP 10%, AfD 10%, Linke 8%

green-red-red = 47%, CxU+FDP+AfD = 47%
green-red-yellow = 49%, CxU+AfD+Linke = 45%

According to this most recent poll, both green-red-red and green-red-yellow could be possible

Don't see a'traffic light' coalition at the federal level. Even if it were to have a razor-thin majority, there would be many reasons for both SPD and FDP to reject such a coalition proposal.

[buritobr]

Kantar Emnid March 20th 2021

CDU/CSU 27%, Grüne 22%, SPD 17%, FDP 10%, AfD 10%, Linke 8%

green-red-red = 47%, CxU+FDP+AfD = 47%
green-red-yellow = 49%, CxU+AfD+Linke = 45%

According to this most recent poll, both green-red-red and green-red-yellow could be possible

Don't see a'traffic light' coalition at the federal level. Even if it were to have a razor-thin majority, there would be many reasons for both SPD and FDP to reject such a coalition proposal.

And what do you think about the green-red-red? If they reach >50% of the seats, would they build a coalition?

[Astatine]

RIP Karin Strenz. She was a federal MP who was currently involved in one of the numerous corruption investigations surrounding the CDU (she decided not to run in the September elections), and died on an airplane on the way from Cuba to Germany.

[njwes]

Any chance the SPD is lured into another Grand Coalition? Would the CDU/CSU even go for that if it were their only good option?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

RIP Karin Strenz. She was a federal MP who was currently involved in one of the numerous corruption investigations surrounding the CDU (she decided not to run in the September elections), and died on an airplane on the way from Cuba to Germany.

There will be no successor to her Bundestag seat, as it was an overhang seat, right?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Any chance the SPD is lured into another Grand Coalition? Would the CDU/CSU even go for that if it were their only good option?

No. And yes. But those questions don't even arise as there won't be a CDU/CSU and SPD majority anyway.
The pivotal question is if the SPD would enter an Afghanistan/Kenya coalition.

[Astatine]

RIP Karin Strenz. She was a federal MP who was currently involved in one of the numerous corruption investigations surrounding the CDU (she decided not to run in the September elections), and died on an airplane on the way from Cuba to Germany.

There will be no successor to her Bundestag seat, as it was an overhang seat, right?

Since 2013, vacated overhang seats get re-filled again as long as the state list provides a successors (the Brandenburg CDU painfully experienced what happens if that isn't the case). That would be the Landtag deputy Maika Friemann-Jennert.

[Mike88]

If the Union drops below 30% in September, it's actually possible another government is able to gain a political and mathematical majority. Six months of course is a long time and politics, but the CDU/CSU corruption scandals keep popping up and people get increasingly frustrated with the pandemic missmanagement. And latter especially with the leadership from Union politicans both federal and at the state level.

The SPD just needs a few more points to overtake the Greens to make Olaf Scholz chancellor and either form a red-red-green or (preferably in my opinion) trafficlight coalition. Scholz can make a real case that he's a pragmatic and experienced leader while neither Habeck nor Baerbock come close to his resume as former Labor Minister, First Mayor of Hamburg and now Finance Minister.

I think CDU/CSU desperately need to go back into opposition. They have no new ideas for the future, especially in areas in which we're lagging behind. Not to mention their corruption issues that have revealed deep seated structural problems. A traffic light coalition, despite the differences between SPD/Greens and FDP, could set new impulses in securing social safety in the era of globalization and bringing together environmental protection and sound economic policies paired with a pro-EU, reliable foreign policy.

Well, 16 years is a long time, indeed, but I think that if the Union, in 3 months time, continues bellow 30%, they will deploy Markus Söder as Chancellor candidate and dump Laschet's dream of being the main candidate. But, I would be fine with Olaf Scholz being Chancellor, he seems moderate and has also been in government for a while so he could continue many of Merkel's positions in Germany and the EU.

[DL]

Have their been any polls comparing how people would vote if the CDU chancellor candidate is Laschet vs if it is Soder?

[Pick Up the Phone]

Any chance the SPD is lured into another Grand Coalition? Would the CDU/CSU even go for that if it were their only good option?

Probably not. I have no doubt that the party leadership would prefer to continue the Grand Coalition as it is a far better option than rotting in opposition while the Greens get all the fancy ministerial positions. But the party base would hardly tolerate such a decision.

The CDU/CSU would definitely do it. It's much easier to handle a docile SPD than to accommodate energetic Greens.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Kantar Emnid March 20th 2021

CDU/CSU 27%, Grüne 22%, SPD 17%, FDP 10%, AfD 10%, Linke 8%

green-red-red = 47%, CxU+FDP+AfD = 47%
green-red-yellow = 49%, CxU+AfD+Linke = 45%

According to this most recent poll, both green-red-red and green-red-yellow could be possible

Don't see a'traffic light' coalition at the federal level. Even if it were to have a razor-thin majority, there would be many reasons for both SPD and FDP to reject such a coalition proposal.

And what do you think about the green-red-red? If they reach >50% of the seats, would they build a coalition?

Doubtful. Such a majority would not really be comfortable and entering into a coalition with the LINKE could be considered too big a risk (i.e., scare many centrist voters).

On the other hand, being senior partner in a coalition is always tempting... but the LINKE would have to make serious concessions, especially in the field of foreign policy. No 'Let's-leave-NATO' bullsh*t anymore.

[Lord Halifax]

If the Union drops below 30% in September, it's actually possible another government is able to gain a political and mathematical majority. Six months of course is a long time and politics, but the CDU/CSU corruption scandals keep popping up and people get increasingly frustrated with the pandemic missmanagement. And latter especially with the leadership from Union politicans both federal and at the state level.

The SPD just needs a few more points to overtake the Greens to make Olaf Scholz chancellor and either form a red-red-green or (preferably in my opinion) trafficlight coalition. Scholz can make a real case that he's a pragmatic and experienced leader while neither Habeck nor Baerbock come close to his resume as former Labor Minister, First Mayor of Hamburg and now Finance Minister.

I think CDU/CSU desperately need to go back into opposition. They have no new ideas for the future, especially in areas in which we're lagging behind. Not to mention their corruption issues that have revealed deep seated structural problems. A traffic light coalition, despite the differences between SPD/Greens and FDP, could set new impulses in securing social safety in the era of globalization and bringing together environmental protection and sound economic policies paired with a pro-EU, reliable foreign policy.

Well, 16 years is a long time, indeed, but I think that if the Union, in 3 months time, continues bellow 30%, they will deploy Markus Söder as Chancellor candidate and dump Laschet's dream of being the main candidate. But, I would be fine with Olaf Scholz being Chancellor, he seems moderate and has also been in government for a while so he could continue many of Merkel's positions in Germany and the EU.

They've said they're going to agree on a Chancellor candidate between Easter and Pentecost, and Pentecost is in two months.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

RIP Karin Strenz. She was a federal MP who was currently involved in one of the numerous corruption investigations surrounding the CDU (she decided not to run in the September elections), and died on an airplane on the way from Cuba to Germany.

When I heard about Strenz's death on an airplane I initially thought her plane crashed. But gosh, she literally died on that airplane; her official place of death has been set as Dublin, btw. The circumstances of her death are truly mysterious and eerie. Nobody knows anyway why Strenz had traveled to Cuba. According to the CDU/CSU parliamentary group it was definitely not an official journey commissioned by er party. The public prosecution department therefore wants to have an autopsy performed on her body, presumably in Ireland.

[Tender Branson]

RIP Karin Strenz. She was a federal MP who was currently involved in one of the numerous corruption investigations surrounding the CDU (she decided not to run in the September elections), and died on an airplane on the way from Cuba to Germany.

When I heard about Strenz's death on an airplane I initially thought her plane crashed. But gosh, she literally died on that airplane; her official place of death has been set as Dublin, btw. The circumstances of her death are truly mysterious and eerie. Nobody knows anyway why Strenz had traveled to Cuba. According to the CDU/CSU parliamentary group it was definitely not an official journey commissioned by er party. The public prosecution department therefore wants to have an autopsy performed on her body, presumably in Ireland.

Looks like a private vacation, her husband was with her on the plane.

And a heart attack.

Strenz was also under investigation for massive corruption the last year (= for apparently receiving 4 million € in lobbying money from Azerbaijan).

[Lord Halifax]

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1375933047166615558?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ct...

When will we see the first poll with the Greens ahead?

[windjammer]

What if the green's/SPD preferable coalition ?
Red-red-green or the tricolore one?

[Oryxslayer]

What if the green's/SPD preferable coalition ?
Red-red-green or the tricolore one?

Unironically Green-Black or Traffic Light, Linke carries a bunch of baggage and the German Greens are not Greonlinks or the Miljöpartiet.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

When will we see the first poll with the Greens ahead?

Probably/hopefully never. The CSU is soon going to announce their chancellor candidate, and once the media constantly mention Söder's name in their news coverage ad nauseam, it will give him and his party a boost.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

What if the green's/SPD preferable coalition ?
Red-red-green or the tricolore one?

The Ampel coalition.

[Astatine]

When will we see the first poll with the Greens ahead?

Probably/hopefully never. The CSU is soon going to announce their chancellor candidate, and once the media constantly mention Söder's name in their news coverage ad nauseam, it will give him and his party a boost.

The "first polls" with the Greens ahead already happened in Summer of 2019:



Nevertheless, I agree that even if we have occasional polls seeing the Greens at the top spot, it's still half a year until the elections and with Söder as the probable candidate for Chancellor, CDU/CSU is still favored for the top spot. By then, exactly one more state election in Saxony-Anhalt will have taken place and as opinion polling in the East tends to overestimate the Greens, their current bump might crack a bit (after their abysmal results results in Thuringia/Brandenburg/Saxony compared to the expectations, the Greens saw a drop of about 3 pts. in the polling average).

[Tender Branson]

Hopefully the Greens end up with 1 or 2 seats more than the Union parties in the election, with about 25% each and Habeck becomes Chancellor.

At this point, Lush@ and Söder are just fighting for the post of Union insolvency administrator.

Söder would be humiliated if he takes the job and risk his post and image in Bavaria.

Unless there are internal polls which show the Union doing much better with him, he’ll pass and Lush@ will become Chancellor candidate ...

[Lord Halifax]

When will we see the first poll with the Greens ahead?

Probably/hopefully never. The CSU is soon going to announce their chancellor candidate, and once the media constantly mention Söder's name in their news coverage ad nauseam, it will give him and his party a boost.

So you expect them to officially announce him as their candidate regardless of whether he's invited by the CDU? That goes against the consensus in the press.

What do you make of Strobl's public support for Laschet saying it's his impression all the state parties agree Laschet is the right candidate? BaWü, along with the East and Hamburg, were supposed to be the state parties favorable to Söder.