🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Pick Up the Phone]

I have been following this more closely recent weeks, so I ask myself what happens if SPD+Greens+FDP have a majority, but CDU/CSU is the strongest party? Does that mean there's a CDU/CSU-Greens govt? Usually the party that finishes 1st gets the 1st chance to form a cabinet, but that's not a binding rule.

There is no rule that the largest party must lead the government. They probably will be tasked first with forming a government, but if the other three parties have other ideas, then nothing the CDU does will stop a Traffic Light coalition. If Black-Green happens, it will be because both the CDU and the Greens chose to negotiate a government.

I'm aware the largest party doesn't automatically get the chancellorship. My question was more which govt was more likely in that event? I'd assume Greens would prefer a coalition with SPD and FDP if they get the chancellor and even if SPD was entitled to the position. But I thought FDP was more right-leaning?

It really depends on the results and the coalition negotiations. But I still believe in Black-Green or, alternatively, 'Jamaica'. 

The FDP is obviously interested in governing, but joining a 'traffic light' coalition may appear as a Pyrrhic victory to its leadership. I have no doubt that they would work very well with both Greens and SPD - but also lose most of their former CDU/AfD voters who would cry 'foul'. Being the weakest party in a coalition with two larger center-left parties would also mean that they would have problems to pass their agenda.

The Greens should not be interested in a 'traffic light' coalition that does not include a Green Chancellor. Supporting a SPD Chancellor would be a major strategic mistake.

In turn, the SPD might not be interested in a 'traffic light' coalition that does not include a SPD Chancellor.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Lambrecht seems like a totally bad choice. She has never had contact to Defense policy at all, and after the last Defense Ministers were either large-scale failures (von der Leyen) or well-intentioned mediocre tryhards (AKK) at best, it would've been great to see someone competent in that position.

Retrospectively, FDP should have received the Defense Department and SPD Justice - Lambrecht could have kept her job and Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann or Alexander Graf Lambsdorf could've become Defense Minister.

At least Heiko Maas is out for good.

I was really surprised that Strack-Zimmermann did not become MoD. With Lambrecht, the issue is that she gave a rather solid performance at Justice and there was a necessity to ensure gender parity. But it is obvious that the MoD has now finally become a second-tier ministry without much influence. Gone are the days when it was a serious counterpart to the Auswärtige Amt.

Obviously, Lauterbach is a pretty irrational choice. Very polarizing + questionable character + strong maverick vibes. Not sure why Scholz went for him. Too much pressure from the basis?

[Pick Up the Phone]

Re Özdemir: It is no secret that he was absolutely desperate to get a cabinet position and this was probably his last chance - a true 'now or never' moment. Since at least the mid 2000s, he had obvious aspirations to become Minister of Foreign Affairs. Now, with Baerbock blocking this option and the FDP getting the Ministry of Transport (Özdemir was Chairman of the Bundestag's Committee on Transport), Agriculture was apparently the only option left. Nonetheless, it is definitely an unexpected position for the first minister of Turkish descent(!).

Re Faeser: Very strange choice. Complete no-name in federal politics.

Re Heil: No brainer, good that he stays on.

[Pick Up the Phone]

There was a large public demand for Lauterbach;

Sure, it's part of being polarizing that you also have some diehard followers. But it doesn't make this appointment a more reasonable or prudent one. It's not campaign season anymore, and the SPD would be well advised not to give a key office to a controversial self-promoter who is hard to control.

even CDU politicians and Markus Söder praised him.

As a matter of principle, I would be extra careful if someone was praised by Söder. For more than one reason.

I think he's definitely the best possible choice due to his broad expertise on health issues.

Doubt it. He may be the most competent, sure, but that doesn't really matter. A minister doesn't have to be an expert but an able taskmaster.

Say of him whatever you want, his takes and opinions during the pandemic often proved correct.

That's up for debate, I think. But even if he is - there is a major difference between giving the right 'takes' in talk shows and actually implementing effective policies in a system as complex as the German one. I don't consider Lauterbach someone who is willing or able to compromise if necessary.  

Many of the backbenchers talking him down from within the party are most likely just jealous that this guy is getting so much attention and a large following these days.

Don't disagree, but is their jealousy surprising? Lauterbach is obviously someone who is pretty convinced of himself (to put it mildly). And that's usually a reliable indicator for trouble.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Well, name me a successful politician of any ideology or country that isn't convinced of him- or herself.

It's one thing to be it - and another thing to show it so openly. The most successful individuals in most fields are those who have a lot of self-confidence but are smart enough not to unnecessarily irritate people.

Cristiano Ronaldo or Donald Trump are the odd exceptions.

Obviously you need self confidence for a government role (or any other top role, be it in business, sports, the academic world and so on). However, I'm not actually convinced he's doing all the talkshows and tweets for his own ego or self-promotion, he seems pretty sincere about saving lives in the pandemic and enjoys educating people (his knowledge is pretty much out of question).

Never doubted his knowledge. And agree to disagree with regard to his self-promotion efforts.

In the end, the question is not whether Lauterbach is a self-promoter or not - but why Scholz did not go with a safer and less controversial option. It will be interesting how Scholz will resolve the first pandemic-related disagreements between the FDP and a Lauterbach-controlled Ministry of Health.

[Pick Up the Phone]

End of an era. It's incredible how long Merkel has been in office. For sure she has influenced European and international politics to a large extent and despite some errors governed with calm and rationality.

I'm curious to see how the new cabinet will conduct itsself in the coming months and year. If successful, I think the 2021 election could be something like a realignment and lock CDU out of power for an equally long time that Merkel was at helm. Not sure Scholz will be chancellor that long; he could for sure hand the reigns over power to another SPD politician in 8 or 10 years.

Not so sure about this. Apparently, most Germans think that Scholz will be Chancellor for four years at most. And the SPD's long-term power options beyond 'traffic light' are limited.

But obviously it depends on the CDU and whether the new leader will be able to pacify the party.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Maybe, there will be neither pure left-wing nor pure right-wing ruling coalition at the national level so soon. What do you think?
Possible pure right-wing coalitions are CDU/CSU+FDP+Afd or CDU/CSU+FDP
Possible pure left-wing coalitions are SPD+Grüne+Linke or SPD+Grüne
We don't expect CDU/CDU+FDP or SPD+Grüne to have >50% of the seats of the Bundestag in the short term, and the AfD and the Linke are not considered coalition partners.

Possible coalitions are Ampel, Jamaika, Grossekoalition, Kenya and Deutschland. All of them are mixed coalitions. We can expect long negotiations after each federal election.

R2G may still be an option for 2025 or beyond. I don't think the AfD will never be in any coalition since that wouldn't be sustainable (aside from all parties ruling it out).

I also wouldn't label the FDP as right-wing or count them to any block. FDP sees itsself as centrist party with classical liberalism as basic philosophy. It's a bit closer to the CDU on economic issues and closer to the SPD and Greens on cultural issues.

The current party system makes it increasingly difficult for parties to form governments of a pure left or right bloc.

Interesting. I think it is quite clear that the AfD will never be a coalition partner for either CDU or FDP. At least not in its current form. The party is way too toxic and even Merz is clearly going for the center.

There is no future for the far right in Germany.

But I strongly agree with regard to the FDP. It would be grotesquely misleading to view it as a right-wing party. In fact, it has plenty of similarities with the Greens (composition of the electorate, social and cultural policies, centrist leanings) but almost none with the AfD. It's more or less a German D66 at this point.

If I were to make a prediction, I would say the following:

(A) It is rather likely that the era of two party coalitions is over for good.
(B) It is also likely that the era of 'bloc politics' is over as well. To many in the center-left camp, 'traffic light' is by now a much more logical option than 'Red-Red-Green'.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Interesting that its quite possible that in the next German election both the Linke AND the FDP could fall short of the 5% hurdle in which case the main question mark would be whether Red/Green could get a majority or whether CDU plus AFD would have a majority. If the latter happened, I suppose it would inevitably lead to some sort of CDU led "grand coalition"

Why do you think so? I suppose that such a scenario would rather lead to CDU-Greens (if possible). Nobody likes Grand Coalitions at the federal level, Merz/Habeck is a solid match, and the SPD would be spared the dilemma of what to do with Olaf Scholz and his loyalists.