🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

But I am really not sure about overhang and compensatory seats, as the election system was reformed recently (so that CDU/CSU can nicely benefit), but a lawsuit against it is pending.
But I am really not 100 % sure, the German electoral system itself is not too complicated in total, but the details of when a seat gets compensated in which state etc. are too much for me to.

Thank God, I am not the only one...
I know about the new electoral law, but I don't know whatsoever how it will be implemented.
Initially, CDU and SPD merely wanted to reduce the number of congressional districts, which is equivalent to half of the default number of Bundestag seats.
However, the CSU acted willfully obstructively as they usually benefit heavily from those overhang seats, which ought to have been reduced. The last federal election marked the first time the number of allocated seats according the second vote matched the number of direct seats.

The one MP doesn't have much too say unless he or she joins a parliamentary group (unlikely, but most probable match would be SPD or Greens?)

For the Bundesversammlung ("electoral college"), which elects the Federal President, the Schleswig-Holstein SPD is wont to nominate one SSW member for their delegation.

PS: Wait ...

that would be about 80'000 votes, half of it would be 40'000 (I found the number of 45'000-50'000 in an online news article).

... you're Swiss? 

[parochial boy]

Worth mentioning that the Bundesamt für Verfassungschutz has classified the AfD as suspected right-wing extremists, surely?

[njwes]

Worth mentioning that the Bundesamt für Verfassungschutz has classified the AfD as suspected right-wing extremists, surely?

That'll show them! 

[palandio]

Worth mentioning that the Bundesamt für Verfassungschutz has classified the AfD as suspected right-wing extremists, surely?

Generally there are three levels of observation:
1. Prüffall (examination case): If there seem to be first signs of anti-constitutional aspirations, observation is limited to the evaluation of publicly accessible material.
2. Verdachtsfall (suspect case): Under the condition of judicial permission the Verfassungsschutz ("Constitution protection", i.e. domestic intelligence organization) can be allowed to check the suspect organization's finances or put certain members under observation.
3. Gesichert extremistische Bestrebung (confirmed extremist aspiration): If suspicions have been confirmed, a variety of intelligence measures can be applied to keep the anti-constitutional organization under surveillance.

Examples:
2. AfD, Young Alternative (Afd youth organization, already when AfD was still in category 1)
3. Der Flügel ("The Wing", formally dissolved far-right group inside AfD), Identitary Movement

So the AfD is working its way through the levels. Maybe it is only a matter of time until it reaches level 3.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Oh, before I forget: There's another party that is about to freeze a renowned member out because she has become too conservative and too popular for that party 🙄:

https://twitter.com/SPIEGEL_alles/status/1366827669975822337

Wagenknecht was not even able to convince the delegates of her own party of her crazy anti-migrant policies. She may be an entertaining talk show guest but she's a terribly incompetent politician - or do I need to mention the sad joke that was her failed Aufstehen movement? The party leadership could kick her out and nothing would happen.

And perhaps they should. After all, the LINKE has nothing to win from listening to Wagenknecht who is clearly part of a dying breed. Instead, they need to realize that there is no need for a Left that pretends to still live in the 1970s so that it can ignore the struggle of LGBTQs, POCs, and Muslims.

[Astatine]

Wagenknecht was not even able to convince the delegates of her own party of her crazy anti-migrant policies. She may be an entertaining talk show guest but she's a terribly incompetent politician - or do I need to mention the sad joke that was her failed Aufstehen movement? The party leadership could kick her out and nothing would happen.

And perhaps they should. After all, the LINKE has nothing to win from listening to Wagenknecht who is clearly part of a dying breed. Instead, they need to realize that there is no need for a Left that pretends to still live in the 1970s so that it can ignore the struggle of LGBTQs, POCs, and Muslims.

Maybe she could Team Hodentöter... Todenhöfer, their views don't seem to be too far apart from each other?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Friedrich Merz just can't let it go. He just announced his candidacy for a Bundestag seat. The "problem": There is already an incumbent CDU politician, Patrick Sensburg, running for reelection in the district he seeks to represent. And Sensburg isn't just a backbencher. Furthermore, it's unclear what larger goal he has with the candidacy. It will definitely lead to a contested convention vote for the CDU candidacy in the district.

This comes after his "offer" to become Minister of Economics right after losing the CDU leadership to Armin Laschet in the current Merkel government, in which Peter Altmaier already holds the post. The ridiculous move back then was immediately rejected by Merkel and Laschet. The guy is a real trainwreck.

Now it's official: There will be a primary - or how the gonzo German media like to put it: "Kampfkandidatur" - between incumbent Patrick Sensburg and Friedrich Montgomery Merz after the latter has been nominated by the CDU chapters of Sundern and Arnsberg.
There was also also a third candidate, 35-year-old Bernd Schulte, but he has renounced his candidacy.
480 delegates will decide upon who is eventually going to represent their constituency in mid-April - in a sports stadium in Arnsbergs called "Große Wiese".

The constituency Hochsauerlandkreis (No. 147) is congruent with Hochsauerland County, the largest county by area in North Rhine-Westphalia, which is contiguous to Hesse.
The constituency and county is staunchly conservative. It used to go to the CDU candidate by a majority - until 2017, when Patrick Sensburg "merely" won it by a plurality (but still carrying it with 48% of the first votes).
Merz won that constituency four times in a row by a majority; he delivered his best result in 2005 with 57.7% of the first votes. Merz's successor to that district was Sensburg, who acceded to his direct mandate in 2009.

[President Johnson]

Yes, Wagenknecht, go ahead. Split up their votes and get the Left under the 5% threshold. If we can get rid of the AfD as well, we're back to a four party Bundestag, which would make things much easier.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

So, any thoughts about corrupt Bundestag member Philipp Amthor?
Will the AfD conquer his district, which already encompasses all AfD strongholds within Mecklenburg-Vorpommern? (Every state constituency the AfD had won in 2016 lies within Amthor's federal constituency.)
Is it even possible that the AfD will become the strongest party in MV, now that Amthor is officially leading the statewide party list?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

In this interview, LINKE chairwoman Hennig-Wellsow is demonstrating her unbelievable incompetence; she unconditionally opposes Bundeswehr operations abroad, she wants to end all operations, but she doesn't know if and where our troops are currently operating...

https://twitter.com/i/status/1367558391099518979

[President Johnson]

So, any thoughts about corrupt Bundestag member Philipp Amthor?
Will the AfD conquer his district, which already encompasses all AfD strongholds within Mecklenburg-Vorpommern? (Every state constituency the AfD had won in 2016 lies within Amthor's federal constituency.)
Is it even possible that the AfD will become the strongest party in MV, now that Amthor is officially leading the statewide party list?

With the recent scandals surrounding Nikolas Löbel (CDU) and Georg Nüßlein (CSU), Amthor is longer in the public spotlight at this point. Both made a fortune by taking huge commissions for mask purchases and are under criminal investigation. Finally Armin Laschet called for their prompt resignations. So far, they just have left the parlamentary group, announced not ro run again and resign by the end of August, a month before the federal election. However, I assume the pressure will take them down the next few days.

[Flyersfan232]

Her harelip attracted national attention last February when she unveiled her antidemocratic and anti-social behavior by hurling a bouquet at legally-elected Governor Thomas Kemmerich's feet.

Nothing wrong or antidemocratic or antisocial about protesting someone who collaborated with Nazis to get power.

Why are the free voters big in bavaria but no where else and is it possible for them to be in federal politics???

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

So, any thoughts about corrupt Bundestag member Philipp Amthor?
Will the AfD conquer his district, which already encompasses all AfD strongholds within Mecklenburg-Vorpommern? (Every state constituency the AfD had won in 2016 lies within Amthor's federal constituency.)
Is it even possible that the AfD will become the strongest party in MV, now that Amthor is officially leading the statewide party list?

With the recent scandals surrounding Nikolas Löbel (CDU) and Georg Nüßlein (CSU), Amthor is longer in the public spotlight at this point. Both made a fortune by taking huge commissions for mask purchases and are under criminal investigation. Finally Armin Laschet called for their prompt resignations. So far, they just have left the parlamentary group, announced not ro run again and resign by the end of August, a month before the federal election. However, I assume the pressure will take them down the next few days.

Nikolas Löbel has renounced both his CDU party membership and his Bundestag seat.
Georg Nüßlein is no longer a member of the CSU, but he still clings to his seat, which Söder insistently urges him to give up.

[Tender Branson]

CDU/CSU with a big mask scandal.

https://www.dw.com/en/german-lawmaker-resigns-over-face-mask-scandal/a-56798497

[President Johnson]

So, any thoughts about corrupt Bundestag member Philipp Amthor?
Will the AfD conquer his district, which already encompasses all AfD strongholds within Mecklenburg-Vorpommern? (Every state constituency the AfD had won in 2016 lies within Amthor's federal constituency.)
Is it even possible that the AfD will become the strongest party in MV, now that Amthor is officially leading the statewide party list?

With the recent scandals surrounding Nikolas Löbel (CDU) and Georg Nüßlein (CSU), Amthor is longer in the public spotlight at this point. Both made a fortune by taking huge commissions for mask purchases and are under criminal investigation. Finally Armin Laschet called for their prompt resignations. So far, they just have left the parlamentary group, announced not ro run again and resign by the end of August, a month before the federal election. However, I assume the pressure will take them down the next few days.

Nikolas Löbel has renounced both his CDU party membership and his Bundestag seat.
Georg Nüßlein is no longer a member of the CSU, but he still clings to his seat, which Söder insistently urges him to give up.

Söder even urged them to donate the hundred of thousands of euros they made out of these deals.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

With the recent scandals surrounding Nikolas Löbel (CDU) and Georg Nüßlein (CSU), Amthor is longer in the public spotlight at this point. Both made a fortune by taking huge commissions for mask purchases and are under criminal investigation. Finally Armin Laschet called for their prompt resignations. So far, they just have left the parlamentary group, announced not ro run again and resign by the end of August, a month before the federal election. However, I assume the pressure will take them down the next few days.

Nikolas Löbel has renounced both his CDU party membership and his Bundestag seat.
Georg Nüßlein is no longer a member of the CSU, but he still clings to his seat, which Söder insistently urges him to give up.

Söder even urged them to donate the hundred of thousands of euros they made these deals.

Someone is reeeaaally desperate to become chancellor...

[buritobr]

The polls show a very stable scenario of the division of votes according to left and right
Right-wing bloc: CDU/CSU+FDP+AfD = 51%
Left-wing bloc: SPD+Grünen+Linke = 43%
This ~8 point margin for the right-wing bloc we see unchanged in the last months. The share of vote for each party change a little bit

[Pick Up the Phone]

The polls show a very stable scenario of the division of votes according to left and right
Right-wing bloc: CDU/CSU+FDP+AfD = 51%
Left-wing bloc: SPD+Grünen+Linke = 43%
This ~8 point margin for the right-wing bloc we see unchanged in the last months. The share of vote for each party change a little bit

With the important limitation that there is no such thing as a 'right-wing bloc' in Germany. There's the CDU/CSU (a party alliance that calls itself centrist and is at most moderately center-right) and the FDP (which is in many regards more socially liberal and modern than the SPD). And then, completely isolated, there's the quasi-fascist AfD.

Categories such as 'left-wing' and 'right-wing' only lead to confusion when analyzing such a constellation. There are far more voters switching from CDU/CSU to the Greens than to the AfD and if we take a look at the coalitions that have been ruled out, we quickly find a similar pattern:

CDU/CSU - LINKE
FDP - LINKE

but

CDU/CSU - AfD
FDP - AfD
SPD - AfD
Greens - AFD
LINKE - AfD

So, a more reasonable categorization would be:

Center-left to left: 43%
Center-right: 40%
---
Far-right (irrelevant): 11%

Alternatively:

CDU/CSU-Greens: 53%
All others: 41%

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

So, a more reasonable categorization would be:

Center-left to left: 43%
Center-right: 40%
---
Far-right (irrelevant): 11%

Woah! I didn't know that 11% of all Germans are bent on voting for the NPD, Der III. Weg, or Die Rechte...

[Astatine]

CDU/CSU with a big mask scandal.

https://www.dw.com/en/german-lawmaker-resigns-over-face-mask-scandal/a-56798497

At least both Susanne Eisenmann and Christian Baldauf now have someone to blame for leading their respective state party into the worst electoral defeat in the party's history. That's clearly the #Arminmentum.

Wouldn't be too surprised if the FDP scored a double digit result in both state elections and the Free Voters enter the Landtag of RLP.

[palandio]

CDU/CSU with a big mask scandal.

https://www.dw.com/en/german-lawmaker-resigns-over-face-mask-scandal/a-56798497

At least both Susanne Eisenmann and Christian Baldauf now have someone to blame for leading their respective state party into the worst electoral defeat in the party's history. That's clearly the #Arminmentum.

Wouldn't be too surprised if the FDP scored a double digit result in both state elections and the Free Voters enter the Landtag of RLP.

I think that at least subconsciously some leading CDU politicians are glad about the mask scandal. The Baden-Württemberg CDU was at 25% and 24% in two polls done immediately before the mask scandal became public, which is already an absolute electoral desaster. I think that 20% after a corruption scandal is easier to explain than 25% without a scandal. Now they can say "Our politics was good and popular, but then came the mask scandal" and use the two random backbenchers whose names will be forgotten tomorrow as scapegoats.

[Former President tack50]

The polls show a very stable scenario of the division of votes according to left and right
Right-wing bloc: CDU/CSU+FDP+AfD = 51%
Left-wing bloc: SPD+Grünen+Linke = 43%
This ~8 point margin for the right-wing bloc we see unchanged in the last months. The share of vote for each party change a little bit

With the important limitation that there is no such thing as a 'right-wing bloc' in Germany. There's the CDU/CSU (a party alliance that calls itself centrist and is at most moderately center-right) and the FDP (which is in many regards more socially liberal and modern than the SPD). And then, completely isolated, there's the quasi-fascist AfD.

Categories such as 'left-wing' and 'right-wing' only lead to confusion when analyzing such a constellation. There are far more voters switching from CDU/CSU to the Greens than to the AfD and if we take a look at the coalitions that have been ruled out, we quickly find a similar pattern:

CDU/CSU - LINKE
FDP - LINKE

but

CDU/CSU - AfD
FDP - AfD
SPD - AfD
Greens - AFD
LINKE - AfD

So, a more reasonable categorization would be:

Center-left to left: 43%
Center-right: 40%
---
Far-right (irrelevant): 11%

Alternatively:

CDU/CSU-Greens: 53%
All others: 41%

Are you sure about that?



Also, isn't R2G a viable coalition? Talking about a left wing bloc certainly makes sense, especially given it is the only way (other than traffic lights) to take the CDU out of the Chancellorship. I will admit the "right wing bloc" characterization makes less sense though.

[Astatine]

Are you sure about that?

Yes, as the last federal election was almost four years ago and things have changed since. It's true the AfD gained most voters from the CDU (besides voters of other parties and non-voters) in the last federal elections, but that was when their vote share increased from 4.7 to 12.6 % (while the CDU/CSU alliance fell back to pre 2013 levels and the Greens were stable at 8.x %). But if you take a look at the elections that happened since the "Green hype", you'll see that CDU is losing way more voters to the Greens than to the AfD:


(EU elections 2019 compared to federal elections 2017)


(The AfD didn't even run in the election before and still the Greens gained more voters from the CSU than the AfD!)


It's true though that in Eastern states, the CDU is still losing way more to the AfD than to the Greens, but it should be noted that all Eastern states combined have the same population as NRW, so this "counter-trend" is completely neutralized in elections on federal level:

[Former President tack50]

What is the profile of a CDU-Greens swing voter?

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

What is the profile of a CDU-Greens swing voter?

Stereotypically spoken - suburban; 35-50 years old; high-middle class; somewhat educated and interested in politics; generally liberal on social issues; moderate on fiscal issues; concerned about climate change; liked Merkel. However, I don't know if there is any empirical data on that question.