🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/spd-scholz-kanzlerkandidat-1.4994780

SPD being bipolar as usual.

Yesterday, Esken and Walter-Borjans said they are striving for a "progressive alliance" in the coming years, indicating potential cooperation with Die Linke


This morning, however, the SPD leadership announced that Olaf Scholz will be the SPD Kanzlerkandidat in next year's election.

FDP leader Christian Lindner was amazed by the SPD leadership's coalition offer to the Left on the one hand and Scholz's nomination on the other: "He is respectable, but the strategy still seems puzzling," he wrote on Twitter. It was only on Sunday that the SPD party leaders Saskia Esken and Norbert Walter-Borjans made public that the SPD was striving for a "progressive alliance" in the coming years, i.e. that it was also open to a coalition with the left. There was agreement on that with Scholz and Bundestag parliamentary group leader Rolf Mützenich.

In the opinion of FDP vice-president Wolfgang Kubicki , Scholz's nomination will "tend to damage social democracy in the long run". Because the leadership of the SPD must explain "why Scholz should be elected by the people in the country if he does not even manage to be elected chairman by his own comrades," said Kubicki of the dpa news agency in Kiel.

CSU boss Markus Söder criticized Scholz's proclamation as a candidate for candlelight from the SPD and statements by the Social Democrats about a coalition with the Left Party. The fact that the SPD is starting the election campaign at this point in time is "devastating" for further cooperation in combating the corona pandemic, said Söder. Instead of an election campaign, the focus must now be on combating the corona pandemic. Shortly after his nomination, however, Scholz said: "We govern, and we will continue to do so. The election campaign doesn't start today."

Left parliamentary group leader Dietmar Barsch called for a strong left alliance against the Union: "Major tax reform, sustainable pension reform, and a determined fight against child poverty will only work with a strong left-wing party, including Olaf Scholz,"

[palandio]

Scholz' nomination is not a big surprise since the SPD's leaders Saskia Esken and Norbert Walter-Borjans are by many seen as lacking the right profile to win over many voters. Additionally after last year's heavily contended leadership election (which Esken/Walter-Borjans won and Scholz lost) the party leadership, caucus leadership, ministers (including Scholz) and other important figures seem to have developed a functioning cooperation.

Still, there are many reasons to remain sceptic. Scholz is bland and uncharismatic (nickname "Scholzomat") and like e.g. Steinmeier before him he's tied to policies and reforms in the welfare sector that at the time were very unpopular with a part of the electorate. And then it is almost a given that the party will struggle hard to find a consistent message regarding policies but also for example future coalitions. (As you put it: "bipolar")

[President Johnson]

I'll be a strong supporter of Olaf Scholz, who is a fellow third wayer. He's a smart and pragmatic politican, who can get things done. However, it was a grave mistake the party elected two lackluster leaders, who were unable to capitalize from the good work of the SPD during the pandemic. If Scholz was party leader, the numbers might be better.

Things are fluid and a lot can happen up to September 2021, but after 2017 I have abandoned hope my party will ever reclaim the chancellorship. At this point, it's kinda exhausting the Union seems to be the only party with chances to win the chancellorship, now that the Greens have lost ground as well.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Yesterday, Esken and Walter-Borjans said they are striving for a "progressive alliance" in the coming years, indicating potential cooperation with Die Linke

Even more so, Esken had also said on Sunday that she's willing to accept a Chancellor from the Greens if it means that a coalition between them, her own party, and the Left comes into existence. With today's events Olaf Scholz seems to be the SPD's candidate for Chancellor in case the Greens happen to fail at the polls or something. Talk about sending mixed messages.

[palandio]

Talking about R₂G (or GR₂) right now makes sense if you actually want it. Because if it becomes an option only after the election it's not going to happen (see 2005, 2009, 2013).

At the same time agreement and harmony are not enough by far. To form a government SPD, Greens and Left need an actual majority. In 2017 they got a meager 38.6% which means that they have to win over many voters that voted for neither of these three parties in 2017 (from other parties or abstention). While the Greens have been successful at this to some degree, the Left and SPD so far have been complete failures. In this regard Scholz might have a better chance than e.g. Esken. Going by electoral arithmetics it is probably wise to go for the slightly-left-of-center electoral mainstream (but without too much neoliberal Agenda vibes) and to leave parts of the non-Green progressive vote to the Left. This would both increase the chances for R₂G and weaken the CDU/CSU resulting in a better bargaining position for the case R₂G fails.

[Mike88]

First poll after the Scholz announcement:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1293537329601273856

[Middle-aged Europe]

The next CDU congress, supposed to vote on a new chairperson and provided it doesn't come down to Markus Söder also possibly a Chancellor-candidate for the 2021 election, hangs in the balance again.

The congress was originally scheduled for April and then postponed to December because of COVID. It's clear by now that COVID won't be gone by December and possibly the situation might have even worsened by then. According to outgoing CDU chair Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer CDU party statutes mandate an in-person congress and therefore don't allow a virtual congress (and in order to change party statutes to allow for virtual congresses you'd first need to hold an in-person congress to vote on it too ). The two options on the table are a scaled down in-person congress which limits itself to conducting only the absolutely necessary functions or postponing the congress altogether again. The CDU is planning to make a final (?) decision on that in mid-September.

[President Johnson]

After more than two years of stalemate, the Grand Coalition has agreed to some compromise to cap the size of the Bundestag ahead of the next election. Right now, there are 709 members (598 is the regular size), already by the far the most in history and one of the largest parliaments in the world. During the next session after the 2021 election, a commission is supposed to work out another reform, aiming to reduce the number of districts from 299 to 280. It's still a ridiculous compromise since it doesn't solve the the overall problem with the current election law. But obviously no side wants to give up seats. The politicians clearly have failed to their work here. The Left, Greens and FDP actually presented a joint proposal that would have gone more far, but the the Grand coalition has rejected it.

The issue here is the so called "personalized proportional representation". Out of 598 seats, 299 are assigned to the individual winner of that district. That means you have two votes on the ballot, one for your local candidate, and one for your party (splitting is possible). But if a party wins more districts than they are supposed to be represented according to the result by party, the other parties get additional seats, until the composition of the Bundestag actually fits the overall result. The problem: the usual size of 598 seats explodes the more parties are in the Reichstag building. If the 2021 election result is close to current polling, there might be 800 seats. Not only would costs explode, it would also make the legislative branch a complete mess. Observers and MPs themselves already say it's way too much.

My personal preference would be a simple majority vote by district similar to the US and UK. I'd create 598 districts rather than just 299, and then have two rounds of voting, to make sure the winner of each district isn't just elected with 30% or less. In a first round, each party would run their candidate, while in the second round the two who came out on top face each other. This may break the CDU's dominance, especially with 598 rather than 299 districts, since SPD and Green voters would likely back each other, depending on who advances to the runoff (in addition to the left and even parts of the FDP may not vote for the CDU candidate). With such a voting system, the government would function much better since a fractured legislative is a source of instability and tends to produce just minimal compromises. Furthermore, with smaller districts, the elected representatives would be closer to their constituents.

[Alcibiades]

After more than two years of stalemate, the Grand Coalition has agreed to some compromise to cap the size of the Bundestag ahead of the next election. Right now, there are 709 members (598 is the regular size), already by the far the most in history and one of the largest parliaments in the world. During the next session after the 2021 election, a commission is supposed to work out another reform, aiming to reduce the number of districts from 299 to 280. It's still a ridiculous compromise since it doesn't solve the the overall problem with the current election law. But obviously no side wants to give up seats. The politicians clearly have failed to their work here. The Left, Greens and FDP actually presented a joint proposal that would have gone more far, but the the Grand coalition has rejected it.

The issue here is the so called "personalized proportional representation". Out of 598 seats, 299 are assigned to the individual winner of that district. That means you have two votes on the ballot, one for your local candidate, and one for your party (splitting is possible). But if a party wins more districts than they are supposed to be represented according to the result by party, the other parties get additional seats, until the composition of the Bundestag actually fits the overall result. The problem: the usual size of 598 seats explodes the more parties are in the Reichstag building. If the 2021 election result is close to current polling, there might be 800 seats. Not only would costs explode, it would also make the legislative branch a complete mess. Observers and MPs themselves already say it's way too much.

My personal preference would be a simple majority vote by district similar to the US and UK. I'd create 598 districts rather than just 299, and then have two rounds of voting, to make sure the winner of each district isn't just elected with 30% or less. In a first round, each party would run their candidate, while in the second round the two who came out on top face each other. This may break the CDU's dominance, especially with 598 rather than 299 districts, since SPD and Green voters would likely back each other, depending on who advances to the runoff (in addition to the left and even parts of the FDP may not vote for the CDU candidate). With such a voting system, the government would function much better since a fractured legislative is a source of instability and tends to produce just minimal compromises. Furthermore, with smaller districts, the elected representatives would be closer to their constituents.

Surely there isn’t much appetite in Germany to scrap proportional representation, though? The solution would most likely be a reduction in constituency numbers, or some other way which preserves proportionality while ensuring a stable-sized Bundestag.

[Former President tack50]

Can't Germany just cap the Bundestag at 598, giving 299 district seats and using the other 299 to balance the parliament only "as close as possible" to perfect proportionality? (but without reaching it)

In the extremely unlikely scenario that say, the CDU somehow sweeps every district seat on 30% of the vote, then I suppose Germany will just have to "deal with it" and not have 100% perfect proportionality.

This would still be a proportional system, even if not a perfectly proportional one.

Using the 2017 results and an Excel spreadsheet, here is what I'd guess as a final result:

CDU: 185 (185 Constituency, 0 List)
CSU: 46 (46 Constituency, 0 List)
Total Union: 231

SPD: 124 (59 Constituency, 65 List)
AfD: 74 (3 Constituency, 71 List)
FDP: 63 (0 Constituency, 63 List)
Linke: 54 (5 Constituency, 49 List)
Grüne: 52 (1 Constituency, 51 List)

This benefits the CDU/CSU slightly at the expense of basically everyone else. Still, given the recent political fragmentation in Germany this would also help very slightly into government formation.

Interestingly, CDU+FDP and CDU+Grüne fall just barely short of a majority here, at 294 and 285 seats respectively. CDU+AfD does (barely) get a majority but that would not happen. So Germany would probably still see a Grand coalition.

In terms of misrepresentation, the CDU has 16 more seats than it should and the CSU has 7 more than it should. Everyone else loses 4 or 5 seats.

[Kingpoleon]

Interestingly, CDU+FDP and CDU+Grüne fall just barely short of a majority here, at 294 and 285 seats respectively. CDU+AfD does (barely) get a majority but that would not happen. So Germany would probably still see a Grand coalition.

In terms of misrepresentation, the CDU has 16 more seats than it should and the CSU has 7 more than it should. Everyone else loses 4 or 5 seats.

I think a Jamaica coalition would not be unlikely in this scenario.

[President Johnson]

Interestingly, CDU+FDP and CDU+Grüne fall just barely short of a majority here, at 294 and 285 seats respectively. CDU+AfD does (barely) get a majority but that would not happen. So Germany would probably still see a Grand coalition.

In terms of misrepresentation, the CDU has 16 more seats than it should and the CSU has 7 more than it should. Everyone else loses 4 or 5 seats.

I think a Jamaica coalition would not be unlikely in this scenario.

The next government coalition will be Union and Greens, that I'm pretty sure of. SPD will likely fade into an almost irrelevant political force at the federal level.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Interesting to see that the Greens have recovered quite a bit in the national polls, whereas the SPD is once again stuck in the mid-10s. Latest numbers by polling firm:

Infratest Dimap (01.10.)

SPD 15%
GRÜNE 21%
(CDU: 35%)

INSA (29.09.)

SPD 15.5%
GRÜNE 19%
(CDU: 35%)

Forsa (26.09.)

SPD 15%
GRÜNE 21%
(CDU: 35%)

Seems as though they have gotten a bump from their strong performance in North-Rhine-Westphalia recently. Green candidates also won a couple of high-profile mayor's races (runoff) last week:

Aachen (Germany's westernmost Grossstadt)

Sibylle Keuper (GRÜNE) 67.4%
Harald Baal (CDU) 32.6%

Bonn (Germany's former capital)

Katja Dörner (GRÜNE) 56.3%
Ashok Sridharan (CDU) 43.7%

Wuppertal

Prof. Dr. Uwe Schneidewind (Independent, supported by GRÜNE and CDU) 53.5%
Andreas Mucke (SPD) 46.5%

[Tender Branson]

It would be cooler if her name were Katja Döner.

Good for Bonn, I guess.

[CumbrianLefty]

Interesting to see that the Greens have recovered quite a bit in the national polls, whereas the SPD is once again stuck in the mid-10s. Latest numbers by polling firm:

Infratest Dimap (01.10.)

SPD 15%
GRÜNE 21%
(CDU: 35%)

INSA (29.09.)

SPD 15.5%
GRÜNE 19%
(CDU: 35%)

Forsa (26.09.)

SPD 15%
GRÜNE 21%
(CDU: 35%)

Seems as though they have gotten a bump from their strong performance in North-Rhine-Westphalia recently. Green candidates also won a couple of high-profile mayor's races (runoff) last week:

Aachen (Germany's westernmost Grossstadt)

Sibylle Keuper (GRÜNE) 67.4%
Harald Baal (CDU) 32.6%

Bonn (Germany's former capital)

Katja Dörner (GRÜNE) 56.3%
Ashok Sridharan (CDU) 43.7%

Wuppertal

Prof. Dr. Uwe Schneidewind (Independent, supported by GRÜNE and CDU) 53.5%
Andreas Mucke (SPD) 46.5%

SPD showing no real signs of recovery from recent lows, unlike some centre-left parties in Europe.

[Middle-aged Europe]

^^ When you happen to have Esken & Walter-Borjans - who originally campaigned on leaving the coalition but ultimately walked back on it - as party chairs on one hand and Olaf Scholz on the other hand you continue to be unsure what the SPD even stands for.

[Middle-aged Europe]

It seems like the CDU party convention in December which was supposed to elect a new CDU leader will probably be postponed... again. Originally, this convention had been scheduled for April this year but was then pushed back to December due to the pandemic. Now it seems like it will happen a year later or something. Not that still incumbent CDU chair AKK has been much of a presence in the media or public consciousness the last couple of months - which either may have been intentional on her part due to her lame duck status or unintentional because she just kind of faded away during the pandemic. In most people's minds Angela Merkel probably has been the de facto CDU leader again since March.

Speaking of the pandemic, since Jens Spahn is the incumbent health minister and unlike Armin Laschet hadn't to face much criticism over its handling, there are occassionally voices within the CDU who are urging him to reconsider his decision not to run for CDU leader himself. So far Spahn has always turned these suggestions down and/or not commented on them.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The CDU convention has been officially postponed. This led to Friedrich Merz attacking the CDU leadership now, accusing them of postponing the convention not because of the pandemic, but to prevent him of becoming the new party leader. (I doubt that public meltdowns like this are gonna help his chances... people don't want a German Trump. )

[Samof94]

The CDU convention has been officially postponed. This led to Friedrich Merz attacking the CDU leadership now, accusing them of postponing the convention not because of the pandemic, but to prevent him of becoming the new party leader. (I doubt that public meltdowns like this are gonna help his chances... people don't want a German Trump. )

Their country frowns on demagogues for obvious reasons.

[Astatine]

Not that still incumbent CDU chair AKK has been much of a presence in the media or public consciousness the last couple of months - which either may have been intentional on her part due to her lame duck status or unintentional because she just kind of faded away during the pandemic. In most people's minds Angela Merkel probably has been the de facto CDU leader again since March.

I am actually wondering whether AKK will run for a Bundestag seat next year (she doesn't have a parliamentary seat as of now). Most candidates who run for Parliament have announced their intentions a while ago, while she remained silent so far. Her district would be Saarbrücken (my district), which is currently represented by a low-profile SPD politician who just barely won in 2017. I suppose that AKK would win if she ran for that seat, she is still relatively popular (especially in the suburbs), and the incumbent's majority is extremely slim.
Her performance as Defense Minister was not the worst, in comparison to some predecessors at least, and several former leaders (Schäuble, Barzel) remained in Bundestag or ascended to cabinet positions even after the end of their leadership.

[Middle-aged Europe]

After a couple of CDU officials had more or less accused Friedrich Merz.of being a spreader of conspiracy theories (due to Merz' accusation that the CDU convention wasn't postponed because of COVID but to prevent him from becoming party leader) the convention is now set for a new date in mid-January... for now anyway. Media has commented on recent events as the moment when the CDU leadership race turned "ugly".

[njwes]

After a couple of CDU officials had more or less accused Friedrich Merz.of being a spreader of conspiracy theories (due to Merz' accusation that the CDU convention wasn't postponed because of COVID but to prevent him from becoming party leader) the convention is now set for a new date in mid-January... for now anyway. Media has commented on recent events as the moment when the CDU leadership race turned "ugly".

What's your opinion on the issue?

[PSOL]

Exactly what has Die Linke done recently in these few months? It seems as if they are stagnating heavily in recent memory.

[Astatine]

Exactly what has Die Linke done recently in these few months? It seems as if they are stagnating heavily in recent memory.

Not much, their leaders Katja Kipping and Bernd Riexinger are set to be replaced after eight years by Hesse state legislator Janine Wissler ("radical" wing) and Thuringia state party chairwoman Susanne Henning-Wellsow ("pragmatic" wing). Due to Covid, the leadership election was postponed, and die Linke's essential question (joining a government or not?) has still not been properly answered. Their leading candidates are yet to be chosen, it is widely believed that Kipping will run, which would point more towards a R2G coalition.

Die Linke is quite out of the spotlight right now, stagnating in polls (~7-8 %) and with an unclear position on how to tackle the Covid crisis. General position is against privatization of healthcare, but apart from that, I have heard hardly anything from them in recent times.

[Middle-aged Europe]

After a couple of CDU officials had more or less accused Friedrich Merz.of being a spreader of conspiracy theories (due to Merz' accusation that the CDU convention wasn't postponed because of COVID but to prevent him from becoming party leader) the convention is now set for a new date in mid-January... for now anyway. Media has commented on recent events as the moment when the CDU leadership race turned "ugly".

What's your opinion on the issue?

Friedrich Merz has a big ego and a big mouth and sometimes he speaks before he thinks. I (and probably also a lot of people in the CDU as well) dread him becoming CDU chairman let alone Chancellor, because then everything would become about him and not the public good or something. Unfortunately, Merz has taken a page from the textbook of Trump and other populists by claiming that his own ego trips are ultimatly about fighting the corrupt elites and the establishment (says the guy who has been a senior executive at BlackRock for the past couple of years).