🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Not only that. I believe he also suspected of being the guy who stabbed Heide Simonis in the Back in 2005 during the secret ballot to elect the Minister-Präsident, because of their intra-party rivalry.

I totally forgot to mention that. But in the end we don't know since the ballot was secret.

The satire magazine extra 3 already suggested some campaign posters for Stegner:

Daring more pessimism. (referring to Willy Brandt's slogan "Daring more democracy") 😁

https://twitter.com/extra3/status/1161594135859671040
When your utterly down, the corners of my mouth are with you. 😂

https://twitter.com/extra3/status/1161594113600475136
Enough smile! 🤣

https://twitter.com/extra3/status/1161594072395595777
They even brought Schulz and a very special running mate up for discussion (#Wassermelone [=watermelon] is trending right now in Germany, for whatever reasons 🤷‍♂️):

https://twitter.com/extra3/status/1161643071748149248

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

why are the SDP in love with people with surnames beginning with "Sch" (or at least an S)?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

why are the SDP in love with people with surnames beginning with "Sch" (or at least an S)?

Maybe as a memento of Chancellor Schmidt?
Btw, if the "S" is placed in front of a "t" at the beginning of a word (like in Steinmeier, Steinbrück, Stegner), the "S" is mostly pronounced like a "Sch", too.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Uschi is being discharged right now via Großer Zapfenstreich.
Just a few minutes ago the Bundeswehr marching band played Wind of Change by The Scorpions, a band from Hanover, coincidentally just like Uschi.

https://twitter.com/mynung3/status/1162092809207320579

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Three candidates have thrown their hats in the ring for the chairmanship; one duo and one single candidate:

• Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister Olaf Scholz (61), former mayor of Hamburg, member of the extremely neoliberal Seeheim Circle, was part of Schröder's inner circle

https://twitter.com/SPIEGELONLINE/status/1162300484482293762

• Lower Saxon Interior Minister Boris Pistorius (59), perceived as law-and-order politician, former mayor of Osnabrück, in a relationship with former Chancellor Schröder's ex-wife (and member of the Landtag) Doris Schröder-Köpf
• Saxon Integration Minister Petra Köpping (61), perceived as left-liberal

https://twitter.com/SPIEGELONLINE/status/1162266016044347392

[Middle-aged Europe]

Scholz will probably win and it will be the final nail in the coffin.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Scholz will probably win and it will be the final nail in the coffin.

You mean he has the Biden factor?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Scholz will probably win and it will be the final nail in the coffin.

You mean he has the Biden factor?

Personally, I think they should try to give the Simone Lange/Alexander Ahrens ticket a shot, since they seem like the cleanest slate possible without resorting to obscure Mike Gravel-like characters. I mean, what they have got to lose?

And does anyone seriously believe anything would substantially change for the better with Scholz or Schwan/Stegner at the helm? They'd been gone within the next 12 months too. The reason why Scholz hesitated so long is because it's a career-killing move.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

And does anyone seriously believe anything would substantially change for the better with Scholz or Schwan/Stegner at the helm? They'd been gone within the next 12 months too.

When I first heard about the Stegner/Schwan ticket, I first thought it was some satire news by the Postillon. I can't believe that they both won't realize that they are two of the most unpopular political figures in Germany by far.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Oh, we've forgotten one candidate: Hans Wallow (79!)
He was already the fourth candidate (and the first single candidate) to throw his hat into the ring (on July 15).
Wallow was a member of the Bundestag from 1981 to 1983 and again from 1990 to 1998.
He belongs to the left wing of the SPD. Vehemently opposing neoliberal Agenda 2010 and having criticized the NATO attack on Serbia, he temporarily left the party until he rejoined it in 2006; in the meantime he had been a charter member of Oskar Lafontaine's WASG, a party that merged with the PDS into Die Linke in 2007.
Wallow regularly authors articles for the radical left-wing news blog NachDenkSeiten.

https://twitter.com/gabonn/status/1150803718864101376
That makes 13 candidates in total as matters stand.

Oh, before I forget, the primary has it first internal bitch fight:
Lower Saxony's Governor Stephan Weil came out against the Stegner/Schwan ticket, mainly because he opposes a dual leadership, as he deems a Doppelspitze little assertive.
Johannes Kahrs, member of the Bundestag from Hamburg and member of the neoliberal Seeheim Circle and infamous for his spiteful remarks, tweeted: "Gesine is the greatest. First Kevin, now Ralf. Let's see who's she gonna scratch from the race next. Best woman." He was referring to Kevin Kühnert, the chairman of the extreme left-wing youth organization of the SPD, the Jusos, and the de-facto leader of the NoGroKo movement against last year's singing of the coalition agreement between SPD and CDU/CSU, who had earlier declined Schwan's offer to become her running mate.

https://twitter.com/kahrs/status/1161728944388939777

[President Johnson]

I endorse or will vote for Olaf Scholz. He's a third-wayer and haas a ton of experience in public office. Hope he wins and makes the party great again. If Schwan and Stegner were elected, I'd quit the party.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I endorse or will vote for Olaf Scholz. He's a third-wayer and haas a ton of experience in public office. Hope he wins and makes the party great again. If Schwan and Stegner were elected, I'd quit the party.

Don't you think he would be a better chancellor candidate than a party chairman?

[Beezer]

The party is dead, no matter who runs it. It has completely outlived its usefulness. I think the only person that could salvage parts of the SPD would be a social populist figure who sort of does an about-face on migration, arguing that open borders wreak havoc on the wages of the working class. But that's never gonna happen. Therefore the SPD has been relegated to being a copy of the Greens with less of a hipster appeal.

[Hnv1]

The party is dead, no matter who runs it. It has completely outlived its usefulness. I think the only person that could salvage parts of the SPD would be a social populist figure who sort of does an about-face on migration, arguing that open borders wreak havoc on the wages of the working class. But that's never gonna happen. Therefore the SPD has been relegated to being a copy of the Greens with less of a hipster appeal.

Social democracy is dead

[pilskonzept]

The party is dead, no matter who runs it. It has completely outlived its usefulness. I think the only person that could salvage parts of the SPD would be a social populist figure who sort of does an about-face on migration, arguing that open borders wreak havoc on the wages of the working class. But that's never gonna happen. Therefore the SPD has been relegated to being a copy of the Greens with less of a hipster appeal.

Even if it did happen - see Denmark - there is no need for two parties of that sort, and the Left has more people within the party who could credibly perform such a turn.

Social democracy is dead

Well...I guess they - we - have to realize that 1) social democracy doesn't work without a sense of community, and 2) most voters do not see the whole world as their community, and probably never will.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

seems more like the Social Democratic Parties are victims of their own success - the social democratic policies they pushed for more or less have survived in the policies of other parties. After all, it's not like any of the other parties are pushing for the abolition of public healthcare or co-determination in the workplace.

[urutzizu]

seems more like the Social Democratic Parties are victims of their own success - the social democratic policies they pushed for more or less have survived in the policies of other parties. After all, it's not like any of the other parties are pushing for the abolition of public healthcare or co-determination in the workplace.

I would tend to agree...but in Germany this does not really apply. The current surging party of the left is the Greens, who happily carried through all the Agenda 2010 neoliberal reforms while in Government with the SPD. If this were really a rebellion against Leftists doing neoliberal politics, then the Left party should be surging? They arent, quite the contrary. Why is the AFD so successful among working-class voters despite their even more hardline neoliberal position? Why did the SPD retain their Vote with Schröder in 2005 even after having pushed through Agenda 2010, and why did the SPD only really tank while in Grand Coalition, where they actually did get quite leftist policies through, such as the minimum wage, and rent control?

I agree with the "Blair screwed Labour narrative" in the UK, but here in Germany it does not really add up.

[palandio]

seems more like the Social Democratic Parties are victims of their own success - the social democratic policies they pushed for more or less have survived in the policies of other parties. After all, it's not like any of the other parties are pushing for the abolition of public healthcare or co-determination in the workplace.

I would tend to agree...but in Germany this does not really apply. The current surging party of the left is the Greens, who happily carried through all the Agenda 2010 neoliberal reforms while in Government with the SPD. If this were really a rebellion against Leftists doing neoliberal politics, then the Left party should be surging? They arent, quite the contrary. Why is the AFD so successful among working-class voters despite their even more hardline neoliberal position? Why did the SPD retain their Vote with Schröder in 2005 even after having pushed through Agenda 2010, and why did the SPD only really tank while in Grand Coalition, where they actually did get quite leftist policies through, such as the minimum wage, and rent control?

I agree with the "Blair screwed Labour narrative" in the UK, but here in Germany it does not really add up.

That's not what CrabCake meant at all. By "their own success" he meant enabling millions of working class people and their children to become middle class and thus radically transforming their own classical voter base. Not during the last 30 years, but more like during the last 70 years.

Regarding your post:
- The Greens gain only partially from former SPD voters. Plus exactly what CrabCake said applies: Many former working class members or their children are now economically and culturally not working class anymore.
- The Left gives lower middle class voters the impression that it wants to take away things from them and give it to others.
- The AfD is profitting from a climate of de-solidarization established over the last 15-20 years. Why show solidarity to outsiders if the welfare state shows much less solidarity towards you than in the past when push comes to shove?
- Schröder was an extraordinarily gifted campaigner. He almost let the hardcore-neoliberal full-of-itself 2005 CDU take itself out from the race. In 2009 the CDU seemed much more harmless.
- Even after 2005 the SPD was co-responsible for politics like raising the pension age to 67 and raising the VAT.
- About twice the minimum wage (before taxes) is still an average wage at best. So how would the minimum wage affect most voters directly?
- Rent control doesn't help you when you have difficulties to find a house or appartment in the first place. Plus it can easily be painted as ineffective or even counterproductive.
- I might ad the recently introduced early retirement scemes at 63. They are for a small privileged group of mostly men who started earning money at a very early age and then were lucky enough to be employed all the time, probably at a stable medium-to-large well-paying company.

[President Johnson]

I endorse or will vote for Olaf Scholz. He's a third-wayer and haas a ton of experience in public office. Hope he wins and makes the party great again. If Schwan and Stegner were elected, I'd quit the party.

Don't you think he would be a better chancellor candidate than a party chairman?

Actually yes, though the question is whether we still call it chancellor candidate. As of now, Robert Habeck is most likely to become chancellor as someone not from CDU ranks.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

To add to palandio's musings, you also need to be careful about weaving grand narratives around recent political developments that can easily be ascribed to other factors (chronically poor leadership, junior membership of an unpopular government, the emergence - for the time being - of an honestly pretty similar party policy-wise as a challenger to the government). Particularly when, and this is a grand narrative but an objectively correct one, party loyalty in the old sense has declined drastically in nearly all established democracies.

[urutzizu]

That's not what CrabCake meant at all. By "their own success" he meant enabling millions of working class people and their children to become middle class and thus radically transforming their own classical voter base. Not during the last 30 years, but more like during the last 70 years.

But then her Assertion makes little sense. During the same time as Social Democracy has been in decline, i.e. since the 1990s, the German (like the American) Middle Class has shrunk. Similarly those in Germany with the lowest incomes have increased since the mid-90s from some 17% of the Population to 22%, yet Social Democratic fortunes have not. Of course there has been a change in the traditional "working class", such as a change from low-paid manufacturing to low-paid service jobs, but that is not down to "social democrats success". If anything Social Democrats tried to slow down this inevitable trend of globalization, such as through helping industries in Germany, that would have been closed long ago if it were only for their profitability and preventing the full-scale change to a service based economy like in the UK.

- Even after 2005 the SPD was co-responsible for politics like raising the pension age to 67 and raising the VAT.
- About twice the minimum wage (before taxes) is still an average wage at best. So how would the minimum wage affect most voters directly?
- Rent control doesn't help you when you have difficulties to find a house or appartment in the first place. Plus it can easily be painted as ineffective or even counterproductive.
- I might ad the recently introduced early retirement scemes at 63. They are for a small privileged group of mostly men who started earning money at a very early age and then were lucky enough to be employed all the time, probably at a stable medium-to-large well-paying company.

Well you may criticize the policies of the Grand coalitions of being not left-wing enough, but the SPD has in the Grand Coalitions from 2005 presided over decreases in inequality and still the SPD only really went down after 2005.
(Citation here) Inequality went up massively between 2000-2005, only to go down again from 2005-2009 (first Grand Coalition), went up again until 2014 (CDU-FDP) and since has gone down again (2., 3. Grand Coalition). It can hardly be argued that Government economic policy, especially that of the CDU, did not shift leftwards during the Grand coalitions with the SPD.

- The AfD is profitting from a climate of de-solidarization established over the last 15-20 years. Why show solidarity to outsiders if the welfare state shows much less solidarity towards you than in the past when push comes to shove?

Oh come on. The idea that Working class voters would be suddenly totally fine with mass immigration, if only they got higher welfare benefits, is naive at best and highly condescending at worst. I suggest you actually ask some working-class AFD voters. Ignoring the opposition to the cultural impact of immigration has led the left into the abyss.

[CumbrianLefty]

- The AfD is profitting from a climate of de-solidarization established over the last 15-20 years. Why show solidarity to outsiders if the welfare state shows much less solidarity towards you than in the past when push comes to shove?

Oh come on. The idea that Working class voters would be suddenly totally fine with mass immigration, if only they got higher welfare benefits, is naive at best and highly condescending at worst. I suggest you actually ask some working-class AFD voters. Ignoring the opposition to the cultural impact of immigration has led the left into the abyss.

I'm not saying the explanation you quoted is everything, but equally I don't think its nothing.

If people feel more economically and socially secure, they will be less racist.

It isn't outlandish to suggest that.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Three further candidates have entered the race for the SPD chairmanship; that makes 15 candidates in total as matters stand:

The duo Hilde Mattheis/Dierk Hirschel and the single candidate Karl-Heinz Brunner.

Hilde Mattheis (64) belongs to the left wing of the SPD. She has been the chair of Forum Demokratische Linke 21, an association and think tank founded in 2000 for left-wing members. She has been a member of the Bundestag from Baden-Württemberg since 2002.

Mattheis' running mate Dierk Hirschel (48) is the chief economist of ver.di, the second-largest trade union of Germany.

https://twitter.com/HildeMattheis/status/1163497656712421376
The other candidate, from the other side of the isle, is Karl-Heinz Brunner (66), a member of the Bundestag from Bavaria since 2013. A member of the neoliberal Seeheim Circle, he is deemed to be one of the most conservative SPD members and a staunch supporter of the grand coalition, but he's also the Bundestag faction's spokesman for LGBTI matters. Brunner stated he announced his candidacy because he wants the entire variety within the party to be reflected, as he can tell a distinct superfluity of GroKo opponents and of the left-wing spectrum of the party. From 1990 to 2002, Brunner was the mayor of Illertissen, Bavaria (about 17,000 inhabitants).
Furthermore, and that may quicken Tender's interest, he is also a member of the Austrian SPÖ.

https://twitter.com/ntvde/status/1163696681084264449

[palandio]

That's not what CrabCake meant at all. By "their own success" he meant enabling millions of working class people and their children to become middle class and thus radically transforming their own classical voter base. Not during the last 30 years, but more like during the last 70 years.

But then her Assertion makes little sense. During the same time as Social Democracy has been in decline, i.e. since the 1990s, the German (like the American) Middle Class has shrunk. Similarly those in Germany with the lowest incomes have increased since the mid-90s from some 17% of the Population to 22%, yet Social Democratic fortunes have not. Of course there has been a change in the traditional "working class", such as a change from low-paid manufacturing to low-paid service jobs, but that is not down to "social democrats success". If anything Social Democrats tried to slow down this inevitable trend of globalization, such as through helping industries in Germany, that would have been closed long ago if it were only for their profitability and preventing the full-scale change to a service based economy like in the UK.

That's neither what I meant nor what I wrote (and imho not what CrabCake meant). I'm not talking about "since the 90s" but about a much longer time horizon.
After WWII a majority of people was working class in one way or the other. The descendants of this working class are now culturally, socially and economically very diverse. A part is now in low-paid service jobs, but these people are electorally much less relevant than the mentioned 22% suggests, because many are foreigners and the rest has low turnout. A part has profitted from the opened education system and is now part of the academic middle class, with a different lifestyle and cultural attitudes. And a part is now "lower middle class", people in skilled jobs who earn clearly more than the minimum wage and who have something to lose. The last group can be seen as a (much smaller) functional successor to the old working class, which has profitted from strong unions (traditionally linked to social democracy in Germany) in the past and is still quite well-off, but has reasons to worry.

- Even after 2005 the SPD was co-responsible for politics like raising the pension age to 67 and raising the VAT.
- About twice the minimum wage (before taxes) is still an average wage at best. So how would the minimum wage affect most voters directly?
- Rent control doesn't help you when you have difficulties to find a house or appartment in the first place. Plus it can easily be painted as ineffective or even counterproductive.
- I might ad the recently introduced early retirement scemes at 63. They are for a small privileged group of mostly men who started earning money at a very early age and then were lucky enough to be employed all the time, probably at a stable medium-to-large well-paying company.

Well you may criticize the policies of the Grand coalitions of being not left-wing enough, but the SPD has in the Grand Coalitions from 2005 presided over decreases in inequality and still the SPD only really went down after 2005.
(Citation here) Inequality went up massively between 2000-2005, only to go down again from 2005-2009 (first Grand Coalition), went up again until 2014 (CDU-FDP) and since has gone down again (2., 3. Grand Coalition). It can hardly be argued that Government economic policy, especially that of the CDU, did not shift leftwards during the Grand coalitions with the SPD.

From a purely economic perspective, why should most average lower middle class voters care? The most advertised and remembered measures are not for them, the small measures are nice to have but fast-forgotten, and they have to work until 67 or otherwise worry about having to use their savings and work in pizza-delivery after 15 months of unemployment.
I must admit that I am not informed about the exact development of the average middle class pay-check over the last 15 years, but when it goes up, I would think that most people would attribute it to the general economic development and not to politics against inequality.

- The AfD is profitting from a climate of de-solidarization established over the last 15-20 years. Why show solidarity to outsiders if the welfare state shows much less solidarity towards you than in the past when push comes to shove?

Oh come on. The idea that Working class voters would be suddenly totally fine with mass immigration, if only they got higher welfare benefits, is naive at best and highly condescending at worst. I suggest you actually ask some working-class AFD voters. Ignoring the opposition to the cultural impact of immigration has led the left into the abyss.

No, it's not about giving handouts to everyone and I never said this. Many lower middle class voters are happy to live without benefits as long as things go well. But the German welfare state was a lot about preserving once reached social status of the middle class and about providing immaterial goods like public education and security. A common mistake on both the left and right has been that economically motivated protest vote has been equated to present economic deprivation. People have something to lose, they feel that they would not be cared for when things get serious, and therefore they are less ready to care for other people.

Apart from that, you are right that opposition to immigration comes from opposition against all kinds of impacts of immigration. But the economic motivation is often neglected, and it shouldn't be in my opinion.

[urutzizu]

Have to agree to disagree on most of that, paladino, but you do make one very correct point: most do indeed not "care" about many of the alleged accomplishments of the SPD in Government.
To me it seems the classic problem of the smaller coalition partner, similar to Cameron-Clegg: the Voters credit Merkel with the economic successes, and those that agree with the direction of Government will simply vote for Merkel. Merkel is the status-quo option. Those that dont, have no reason to vote for a party in Government. Every Compromise that the SPD makes is seen as a humiliation, solidifys their position as a "Umfallerpartei". The Compromises of Merkel are seen as Statesmanship.  

That said, in other news Olaf Scholz will run with Klara Geywitz, Landtag Member for Brandenburg. She was one of the instrumental negotiators for Grand Coalition agreement. So the message of Scholz-Geywitz is very clear: Vote for us to continue the Grand Coalition and stay on the current path. The left-wingers opposing them will argue for a change.
This could be the dividing line. Will there be any reason for the leftists like Comrade Kevin to stay in the SPD if Scholz wins? I personally dont see any (I am heavily biased, of course). His win would cement the centrist control in the SPD.