🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Flyersfan232]

https://www.bild.de/politik/inland/politik-inland/online-umfrage-wahl-hammer-in-sachsen-86596620.bild.html

Theoretical AfD-Linke majority in the latest poll in Saxony.

That is truly frightening that the reborn Nazi party leads in polls.

the other parties got nothing but themselves to blame

[Flyersfan232]

https://www.bild.de/politik/inland/politik-inland/online-umfrage-wahl-hammer-in-sachsen-86596620.bild.html

Theoretical AfD-Linke majority in the latest poll in Saxony.

That is truly frightening that the reborn Nazi party leads in polls.

Belongs in the state elections thread, but anyway. Indeed it's truly embarrassing that apparently some people have learned nothing from history or just think this so called alternative will cure all our ills like magic (I personally would support the AfD be outlawed, and some scholars recently made the case for a ban). However, my expectation is that there will be a late swing towards the party of the incumbent prime minister in all of these three states. CDU is still within striking distance in Saxony.

banning the afd will make things worst

[Middle-aged Europe]

banning the afd will make things worst

The debate whether to ban the AfD stems from the fact that you could have easily saved 40 million lives had you banned the NSDAP in time. That's indeed a relevant issue in German politics. Is it likely that 40 million people will die if the AfD isn't banned? Probably not.
 
Then again, by simply asking that question you have already started the risk assessment, evaluating the potential dangers of not banning the AfD, and weighing the benefits of a ban against its costs. At least contemplating the question has become legitimate.
 
That being said, given that there had been several attempts to get the NPD banned and all of them ultimately failed in court I don't really see it happening. On the other hand, if the worst case happens and Björn Höcke somehow manages to become a cabinet member in Thuringia we would have entered completey unchartered territory as far as post-WWII German politics are concerned. Not only because someone who once rejected the concept of a Judeo-Christian culture because he considered Christianity and Judaism to be antagonists will then wield actually political power.
 
Given the extremely polarizing nature of the party against the backdrop of the country's history the question arises how close to the brink of civil war we would end up. According to Article 20 Section 4 of the constitution "all Germans shall have the right to resist any person seeking to abolish this constitutional order if no other remedy is available". A friend of mine recently asked me whether this means that assassinating Höcke would in theory constitute a legal course of action.

Somewhat optimistically I believe that while the AfD will make some gains this year they will ultimately underperform, possibly leading to the first CDU/SPD/FDP/Green minority governments at the state level.

[palandio]

Former president of the Verfassungsschutz (Germany's domestic intelligence agency) Hans-Georg Maaßen has announced that he will turn the Werteunion (Values Union), initially founded as an (unrecognized) internal faction of CDU/CSU, into a proper party. The political position will be to the right of CDU/CSU and it will be open towards coalitions with the AfD. It will try to run e.g. in the Thuringian state election on September 1, 2024, where Maaßen is trying to form an alliance with other right-wing opposition parties and politicians. Maybe also other elections, e.g. the European elections.


Call me sceptical. This will most likely turn out to be another "head birth" of a certain milieu to the right of CDU/CSU. Yes, the initial AfD was in some respect a similar project, but it only got successful because it was already then supported by the far-right which is now firmly in the hand of the AfD and has no reason to switch. Bernd's Lucke Wir Bürger (until 2023 LKR, until 2016 ALFA) has always achieved humiliatingly low results.

On the other hand who thinks that the Traffic Lights coalition's politics are too left-wing, but generally values stability and democracy, will continue to vote for the CDU/CSU, particularly in opposition.

In the past some support might have come from right-wing soft-FDP voters, but they are long gone.

The Free Voters have shown that there is some potential in this political sector, but it's limited (2-4% federally). The Free Voters also have the advantage of being not obviously neo-liberal, rooted in local and regional politics and (apart from Hubert Aiwanger's recent positioning) much more ambiguously positioned on the spectrum between Center and Right. Maaßen might want to integrate them into his political project, but they won't want.

Wagenknecht on the other hand is mostly targeting disappointed voters that voted for left of center parties at some point in the past. Differently from Maaßen she's Anti-Western, economically much more to the left, and also less (ethnic) nationalist and less socially conservative.


Don't get me wrong. The whole "conservative" school of thought is relevant in Germany, there is a whole mediatic space spanning from the CDU/CSU's and FDP's right wing to the "moderate" wing of the AfD. The electoral market just doesn't seem to be there at the moment. Parties with superficial similarities that currently have measurable support, have this support because they are not like Maaßen's project. The mediatic/intellectual right-wing milieu in my opinion is better advised not to focus on one (probably failing) party and instead keep its influence on all of them.

[oldtimer]

Former president of the Verfassungsschutz (Germany's domestic intelligence agency) Hans-Georg Maaßen has announced that he will turn the Werteunion (Values Union), initially founded as an (unrecognized) internal faction of CDU/CSU, into a proper party. The political position will be to the right of CDU/CSU and it will be open towards coalitions with the AfD. It will try to run e.g. in the Thuringian state election on September 1, 2024, where Maaßen is trying to form an alliance with other right-wing opposition parties and politicians. Maybe also other elections, e.g. the European elections.


Call me sceptical. This will most likely turn out to be another "head birth" of a certain milieu to the right of CDU/CSU. Yes, the initial AfD was in some respect a similar project, but it only got successful because it was already then supported by the far-right which is now firmly in the hand of the AfD and has no reason to switch. Bernd's Lucke Wir Bürger (until 2023 LKR, until 2016 ALFA) has always achieved humiliatingly low results.

On the other hand who thinks that the Traffic Lights coalition's politics are too left-wing, but generally values stability and democracy, will continue to vote for the CDU/CSU, particularly in opposition.

In the past some support might have come from right-wing soft-FDP voters, but they are long gone.

The Free Voters have shown that there is some potential in this political sector, but it's limited (2-4% federally). The Free Voters also have the advantage of being not obviously neo-liberal, rooted in local and regional politics and (apart from Hubert Aiwanger's recent positioning) much more ambiguously positioned on the spectrum between Center and Right. Maaßen might want to integrate them into his political project, but they won't want.

Wagenknecht on the other hand is mostly targeting disappointed voters that voted for left of center parties at some point in the past. Differently from Maaßen she's Anti-Western, economically much more to the left, and also less (ethnic) nationalist and less socially conservative.


Don't get me wrong. The whole "conservative" school of thought is relevant in Germany, there is a whole mediatic space spanning from the CDU/CSU's and FDP's right wing to the "moderate" wing of the AfD. The electoral market just doesn't seem to be there at the moment. Parties with superficial similarities that currently have measurable support, have this support because they are not like Maaßen's project. The mediatic/intellectual right-wing milieu in my opinion is better advised not to focus on one (probably failing) party and instead keep its influence on all of them.

It's clearly meant to replace the dead FDP.

Whether it will become the bridge for a CDU+AFD coalition I doubt it, since the present CDU leader wants a coalition with the present government.

It's unlikely that there will be much of a change, beyond who's Chancellor, before 2029, unless the AFD come 1st in 2025.
Which is not likely as long as the CDU is in opposition.

[palandio]

Former president of the Verfassungsschutz (Germany's domestic intelligence agency) Hans-Georg Maaßen has announced that he will turn the Werteunion (Values Union), initially founded as an (unrecognized) internal faction of CDU/CSU, into a proper party.

[...]

It's clearly meant to replace the dead FDP.

[...]

That would make sense. In the past many votes for the FDP came from disaffected CDU/CSU voters during Grand Coalition times. But now CDU/CSU are in opposition, so the timing is a bit unlucky.
And the FDP was also able to attract unaffiliated voters from a wide political range who wanted to express discontent (e.g. with lockdowns in 2021) but not rock the boat too much.
The FDP has often been depicted by its adversaries as economically far right, but at most a minority faction within the FDP really is. Maaßen's project on the other hand is set to be much more to the right than the FDP on all issues, including economics. It will therefore in my opinion lack some of the appeal that the FDP had to many unaffiliated voters. Germany is not Argentina and right libertarianism and paleo-conservatism are still fringe.

[jaichind]

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-farmers-protest-causes-nationwide-disruption/live-67913441

"Germany: Farmers' protest causes nationwide disruption"

I have to assume this will not help the government's popularity

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

“Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht - for Reason and Justice” (BSW) was officially founded today, and intends to compete in the European elections in June, with Fabio De Masi (former Linke member) and Thomas Geisel (former SPD mayor of Düsseldorf) as their top EU candidates.

BSW will have a dual leadership, with Sahra Wagenknecht and Amira Mohamed Ali, the former head of the Linke faction in the Bundestag. Shervin Haghshen, an entrepreneur and university professor, will serve as Vice Chairman; Christian Leye, member of the Bundestag, takes over the post of Secretary General.

After the EU elections, BSW intends to compete in the state elections this fall in Brandenburg, Thüringen, and Saxony. BSW has reported €1.4 million in donations at their founding.

BSW's first party congress will take place on January 27th of this year.

[Vosem]

Two questions about the new parties:

1) BSW seems like a very serious effort, and one which is hitting double-digits in some polls. Is it likely to just replace Linke overall, at least on the federal level where Linke has struggled to hit the threshold overall? Also, since it is not a direct successor to the SED/PDS, is it likely to have an easier time forming coalitions with the other left-wing parties than Linke itself did, or do the personalities running it mean that's not actually a guarantee at all?

2) WU doesn't seem like a very serious effort, given that parties in the space between CDU and AfD have consistently failed to take off, but in the past all such parties have been founded by AfD dissidents, and so have not had much appeal to CDU voters who might be leery of the AfD's associations. Does a former Verfassungsschutz director get around that problem, or is he not actually well-known enough to do so? Also, if there's lots of demand for a further-but-not-that-far right party, why has FW only taken off in certain Landtage and not federally? Why wouldn't Maaßen join FW, or form some sort of tacit alliance with them? This feels like it's purpose is just to divide the right-wing vote (...which may indeed be its purpose, I guess).

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-farmers-protest-causes-nationwide-disruption/live-67913441

"Germany: Farmers' protest causes nationwide disruption"

I have to assume this will not help the government's popularity

It also doesn't seem to help farmers' popularity, actually.

[President Johnson]

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-farmers-protest-causes-nationwide-disruption/live-67913441

"Germany: Farmers' protest causes nationwide disruption"

I have to assume this will not help the government's popularity

It also doesn't seem to help farmers' popularity, actually.

Definitely, though there's a double standard compared to the geniuses of the "Last Generation" who also believe blocking streets is a great idea to rally the masses.

It would actually be a good if a moderator could change the thread title and remove the election date. The thread was started years ago by Tender.

[palandio]

Two questions about the new parties:

1) BSW seems like a very serious effort, and one which is hitting double-digits in some polls. Is it likely to just replace Linke overall, at least on the federal level where Linke has struggled to hit the threshold overall? Also, since it is not a direct successor to the SED/PDS, is it likely to have an easier time forming coalitions with the other left-wing parties than Linke itself did, or do the personalities running it mean that's not actually a guarantee at all?

Replace in which way? Electorally there would definitely be some overlap with the Linke of some years ago, although less progressive/alternative and more generic populist.

It has declared that it is open for coalitions with SPD and Linke, but at least in the short term I would take this with a grain of salt. Foreign policy has replaced the SED past as the primary reason why the Linke has been (federally) not coalition-able in recent years, and BSW represents exactly the anti-Western wing. With Linke there may also be bad blood. With the Greens there would be difficulties since many of Wagenknecht's statements go explicitly against the Greens and the policies that they represent. Interestingly I read about BSW being a potential coalition partner for the CDU in the East on the local or regional level. Still rather unlikely, but not completely impossible. BSW might also prefer to stay in opposition like Wagenknecht's wing did while they were still part of the Linke.

2) WU doesn't seem like a very serious effort, given that parties in the space between CDU and AfD have consistently failed to take off, but in the past all such parties have been founded by AfD dissidents, and so have not had much appeal to CDU voters who might be leery of the AfD's associations. Does a former Verfassungsschutz director get around that problem, or is he not actually well-known enough to do so? Also, if there's lots of demand for a further-but-not-that-far right party, why has FW only taken off in certain Landtage and not federally? Why wouldn't Maaßen join FW, or form some sort of tacit alliance with them? This feels like it's purpose is just to divide the right-wing vote (...which may indeed be its purpose, I guess).

I think that BSW and WU are similar in the sense that their founders and their supporters take them absolutely seriously.
Maaßen is relatively well-known, but much of that comes from his time after being in office. Now if he would find a couple of say, former CDU/CSU ministers, former federal judges, or the like, this might change things. But instead he is associating with youtube economists, gold sellers, etc.
Shortly before the AfD's foundation in 2013 there were ideas to instead enter the FW and turn it into something similar. But I think that it wouldn't have worked in the same way. The FW wouldn't have wanted. The Bavarian FW are a product of Bavarian particularism in the tradition of BBB (Bavarian Peasants' League) and the post-WWII Bavaria Party.

Rather that dividing the right-wing vote I think that Maaßen's goal is to enable right-wing coalitions. I just don't think that his project will contribute to this.

[lfromnj]

Something funny about BSW is all their women MP's are children of immigrants.

[Red Velvet]

BSW hitting double digits in the poll shows what people want from the Left.

BSW, which split from Die Linke, has been described as a far-left / left-wing / left-conservative party, mixing the traditional economic left-wing stances with more conservative stances on social/cultural issues.

Which means, this party is bound to steal voters from AfD in Eastern Germany while also reviving the left after Die Linke got only 4,9% in last German election. A breath of fresh air.

You can compare the poll numbers with the previous poll that didn’t have BSW:

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen - December 14th

Union (Center-Right) - 32%
AfD (Far-Right) - 22%
SPD (Center-Left) - 14%
Grune (Green) - 14%
FDP (Center-Right) - 5%
Die Linke (Left) - 4%
FW (Euroskeptical Center-Right) - 3%

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen - January 11th

Union - 27% (-5)
AfD - 18% (-4)
SPD - 14% (NC)
BSW (NEW, Left) - 14% (+14)
Grune - 12% (-2)
FDP - 4% (-1)
Die Linke - 3% (-1)
FW - 3% (NC)

That said, I wouldn’t underestimate the novelty aspect eventually dying down closer to the election considering all others fell. It will be interesting to see how these BSW numbers develop, if they’re able to grow even more as their name and platform gets out in people’s minds or if they go to similar numbers as the smallest parties as novelty excitement dies down.

[wnwnwn]

BSW hitting double digits in the poll shows what people want from the Left.

BSW, which split from Die Linke, has been described as a far-left / left-wing / left-conservative party, mixing the traditional economic left-wing stances with more conservative stances on social/cultural issues.

Which means, this party is bound to steal voters from AfD in Eastern Germany while also reviving the left after Die Linke got only 4,9% in last German election. A breath of fresh air.

You can compare the poll numbers with the previous poll that didn’t have BSW:

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen - December 14th

Union (Center-Right) - 32%
AfD (Far-Right) - 22%
SPD (Center-Left) - 14%
Grune (Green) - 14%
FDP (Center-Right) - 5%
Die Linke (Left) - 4%
FW (Euroskeptical Center-Right) - 3%

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen - January 11th

Union - 27% (-5)
AfD - 18% (-4)
SPD - 14% (NC)
BSW (NEW, Left) - 14% (+14)
Grune - 12% (-2)
FDP - 4% (-1)
Die Linke - 3% (-1)
FW - 3% (NC)

That said, I wouldn’t underestimate the novelty aspect eventually dying down closer to the election considering all others fell. It will be interesting to see how these BSW numbers develop, if they’re able to grow even more as their name and platform gets out in people’s minds or if they go to similar numbers as the smallest parties as novelty excitement dies down.

What are their policies on inmigration?

[palandio]

BSW hitting double digits in the poll shows what people want from the Left.

BSW, which split from Die Linke, has been described as a far-left / left-wing / left-conservative party, mixing the traditional economic left-wing stances with more conservative stances on social/cultural issues.

Which means, this party is bound to steal voters from AfD in Eastern Germany while also reviving the left after Die Linke got only 4,9% in last German election. A breath of fresh air.

You can compare the poll numbers with the previous poll that didn’t have BSW:

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen - December 14th

Union (Center-Right) - 32%
AfD (Far-Right) - 22%
SPD (Center-Left) - 14%
Grune (Green) - 14%
FDP (Center-Right) - 5%
Die Linke (Left) - 4%
FW (Euroskeptical Center-Right) - 3%

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen - January 11th

Union - 27% (-5)
AfD - 18% (-4)
SPD - 14% (NC)
BSW (NEW, Left) - 14% (+14)
Grune - 12% (-2)
FDP - 4% (-1)
Die Linke - 3% (-1)
FW - 3% (NC)

That said, I wouldn’t underestimate the novelty aspect eventually dying down closer to the election considering all others fell. It will be interesting to see how these BSW numbers develop, if they’re able to grow even more as their name and platform gets out in people’s minds or if they go to similar numbers as the smallest parties as novelty excitement dies down.

1. The results from January 11th quoted above are not from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, but from INSA. The Forschungsgruppe Wahlen results were:
CDU/CSU - 31% (-1)
AfD - 22% (NC)
Grüne - 14% (NC)
SPD - 13% (-1)
FDP - 4% (-1)
Linke - 4%
FW - 4% (+1)
BSW - 4% (+4)

2. INSA on January 13th reported two numbers, one without BSW and one with BSW:
CSU/CSU - 30% / 27%
AfD - 22% / 18%
SPD - 15% / 14%
Grüne - 12% / 12%
FDP - 5% / 4%
Linke - 4% / 3%
FW - 3% / 3%
BSW - --- / 14%

3. The difference is probably in the way that the voting intention was asked. The 14% are probably the result of BSW being mentioned explicitly. Methodologically there may be arguments for this when a new party enters the electoral market because many participants may not be aware that the new party is now a valid option. On the other hand a "free" question without trigger is on the long run probably closer to reality. In the end there may be 20 parties or so on the ballot, BSW being just one of them, and there won't be an explicit statement on the top of the ballot "remember that Wagenknecht is included".

4. I think that we might have to wait a few days or weeks until we get reliable results. My impression is that Wagenknecht went for a Linke split-off over a big tent project. This is very reasonable for stability reasons, but it might also limit its electoral potential. Many voters may still be sitting on the fence: They express their sympathies for BSW when asked explicitly, but only then.

[jaichind]

The economic backdrop to the poll ratings of the ruling bloc, especially the old labor union based SPD

[jaichind]

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-farmers-protest-causes-nationwide-disruption/live-67913441

"Germany: Farmers' protest causes nationwide disruption"

I have to assume this will not help the government's popularity

It also doesn't seem to help farmers' popularity, actually.

https://www.ft.com/content/2ca79669-b7f2-4067-a4bf-0d85e74dde98

"Fractious German coalition lurches from crisis to crisis"

A Forsa poll found 81 per cent of voters sympathise with the protests, and 66 per cent think the diesel subsidy should be reinstated. An INSA poll found 45 per cent of Germans could imagine following the farmers and taking to the streets against the government.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Just a quick reminder: New elections will take place in 455 (out of 2,256) Berlin voting precincts tomorrow, as I told you before; some certain Green Germany avatar once accused me of deficient reading comprehension, claiming only the Berlin state elections would be rerun.



The new elections look unlikely to have any effect on the party composition of the revised Bundestag; only some members could be exchanged for a member of the same party.

The Communists are out of the woods, as Gysi and Lötzsch are going to retain their direct mandates anyway; a loss of one or both of them would have entailed eradicating the whole Linke (and BSW) delegation from the Bundestag (except for the one or two remaining direct seat winners, of course).
CDU Belin top candidate Monika Grütters, former Berlin mayor Michael Müller (SPD), and Stefan Gelbhaar (Grüne) might lose their direct seat, but they are nevertheless likely to remain in the Bundestag, as they are secured via fail-safe list slot.
Vulnerable are those politicians who entered the Bundestag via low list slots, especially since the expected low turnout will entail an allocation of fewer seats to Berlin's city proper related to the 2021 election.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Do you know how these 500 precincts voted last time around?

I suppose the results page from the Landeswahlleiter will show 2021 results tomorrow once polls have closed?

And: will the ballot look the same as in 2021?

[Oryxslayer]

Do you know how these 500 precincts voted last time around?

Given the German way, it was unlikely to throw the whole thing out. But it always struck me as unusual that people would be treated differently and allowed to vote again whereas their neighbors would not.

Anyway:

2021 State Election:



2023 State Election:



2021 Federal Election (you'll have to hover over each polling location on this version of the map to see it's boundaries):



All older Federal Elections from 2013 to reunification

Given the state of polling, and the areas up, it'll probably have a larger emphasis on SPD -> Union transfers compared to other national trends.

[Keep Calm and ...]

Do you know how these 500 precincts voted last time around?

You can see it here:
https://www.wahlrecht.de/news/2024/wiederholungswahl-berlin-ausgangslage_kipppunkte.html

Wiederholungswahlbezirke (only these precints)     Berlin (whole Berlin 2021)   Deutschland (whole Germany 2021)

And: will the ballot look the same as in 2021?

Yes. Mostly
https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/bundestagswahlen/2021/wiederholungswahl.html

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

And: will the ballot look the same as in 2021?

Yes, like in last year's state election. Both elections have been annihilated, just like a marriage, as though they'd never occurred; thus the very same candidates are running again, both for the list and for the direct seats.

"New election" is probably not an accurate translation, btw; "repeat election" may be more accurate, but I don't know if that term exists in the English language, though.

The striking contrast between the black and green colors on the election map reveals tellingly that Berlin is divided into two again: into bourgeois outskirts, and into a woke urban core. The new "wall" where traditional values and modern lifestyle clash is this time the Berlin Ringbahn.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Do you know how these 500 precincts voted last time around?

You can see it here:
https://www.wahlrecht.de/news/2024/wiederholungswahl-berlin-ausgangslage_kipppunkte.html

Wiederholungswahlbezirke (only these precints)  Berlin (whole Berlin 2021) Deutschland (whole Germany 2021)

And: will the ballot look the same as in 2021?

Yes. Mostly
https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/bundestagswahlen/2021/wiederholungswahl.html

Danke, das ist genau das was ich gesucht habe. 👍

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

And: will the ballot look the same as in 2021?

Yes, like in last year's state election. Both elections have been annihilated, just like a marriage, as though they'd never occurred; thus the very same candidates are running again, both for the list and for the direct seats.

"New election" is probably not an accurate translation, btw; "repeat election" may be more accurate, but I don't know if that term exists in the English language, though.

The striking contrast between the black and green colors on the election map reveals tellingly that Berlin is divided into two again: into bourgeois outskirts, and into a woke urban core. The new "wall" where traditional values and modern lifestyle clash is this time the Berlin Ringbahn.

It's good that the same parties have to run again in my opinion, and not BSW, which only came into existence a few weeks ago.

A repeat election, and yes, I think you need to call it this way, should have the same parties and candidates again.

The decision took too much time though (viel zu lang). Voters have died, moved away, new came in, became eligible to vote.

I looked up the Landeswahlleiter website of Berlin and in fact, there are now 6.800 voters less than during the original election.

"Keep Calm" posted the helpful results of the 500 precincts in the original election and there were 556.325 eligible voters (Wahlberechtigte), but today only 549.549

https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/pressemitteilungen/2024/pressemitteilung.1415051.php

In 2021, about 39% of the Wahlberechtigte received absentee documents.

For today, only 27.8% of the eligible.

This would suggest a participation/turnout of just 54% (after 76.7% in 2021).