🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Germany1994]

I also feel like since Bavaria is rather wealthy and economically doing well, the SPD does not really have any enticing topics for voters. The Greens have at least environmental protection and climate change, which seems to resonate more with voters.
Also, the Greens seem to increasingly do well in cities that are also doing relatively well - which are most Bavarian cities. I don't think the SPD can make up the detrimental, large losses they had in Munich anytime soon (19% loss for SPD, 19% gain for the Greens). The Greens also won Würzburg last time, came close in Regensburg and had above average gains in all bigger cities.
And the SPD does not have really any opportunity to make up for these losses anywhere else. The rural areas always voted more conservative and the few strongholds they had historically in rural, protestant areas are falling apart aswell.
The SPD could at least get decent results (while they were obviously not competitive for the CSU for a long time), because they really had not much competition for voters, which were dissatisfied with the CSU - especially in the bigger cities.

Back in the 90s they also had Renate Schmidt as party leader who was pretty known and respected even among many CSU voters. Nowadays almost nobody knows the leading politicans whether it is the party or caucus leader.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

The AfD has lost the mayoral race in the city of Nordhausen, in Thüringen, in what is being described as an upset.

Looks like voters coalesced around the incumbent independent-but-Green-aligned mayor.

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has failed to unseat the incumbent mayor in a runoff election in the central industrial town of Nordhausen.

AfD candidate Jörg Prophet won 45.1% of the vote in Sunday's local polls, while independent incumbent Kai Buchmann garnered 54.9%.

Prophet had been the clear favorite ahead of the election. The 61-year-old entrepreneur won over 42% of the vote in the first round two weeks ago, with Buchmann securing only 23.7%.

Buchmann, an independent formerly associated with the Green party, had hoped to harness support from mainstream voters who view the AfD as right-wing extremists.

However, another mayoral run-off in nearby Sachsen-Anhalt will see a similar set up on October 8th:

While the AfD failed in Thuringia, AfD candidate Henning Dornack received the most votes in the first round of the election for the new mayor of Bitterfeld-Wolfen (Saxony-Anhalt). As the city administration announced on Sunday evening, Dornack received 33.76 percent of the votes. Incumbent Armin Schenk (CDU) received 29.14 percent. Both candidates must compete in the runoff election on October 8th. The voter turnout was 49.74 percent.

Either the anti-AfD vote coalesces and re-elects the CDU incumbent, or the AfD will get their first city mayor*


^{*the AfD candidate elected in Sonneberg in June was a district administrator, commonly referred to as a "mayor", while the candidate elected in Raguhn-Jeßnitz is for the mayoral position of a unified municipality, which is basically an amalgamation of villages and open countryside}

[Harlow]

Well, Wagenknecht officially, finally left LINKE and announced the formation of her new party, BSW. It reaches 12% in an INSA poll released today.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1716476589465063813?s=20

[FredLindq]

Why would CDU and AFD loose voters to BSW?! And not SPD, Grune and Linke?!

[Harlow]

Why would CDU and AFD loose voters to BSW?! And not SPD, Grune and Linke?!

In short, Wagenknecht is known for her anti-immigration, anti-"woke" stances, while being economically left-wing. This has put her at odds with many LINKE members, which is why she left.

[Oryxslayer]

Why would CDU and AFD loose voters to BSW?! And not SPD, Grune and Linke?!

In short, Wagenknecht is known for her anti-immigration, anti-"woke" stances, while being economically left-wing. This has put her at odds with many LINKE members, which is why she left.

Also just the hot new thing in the press, so she of course will poll best now. And I think a good chunk of new supporters like this always pull a good number of the nonresponders, which pushes down the established parties simply because there is a wider pool of responding voters.

[Horus]

Why would CDU and AFD loose voters to BSW?! And not SPD, Grune and Linke?!

In short, Wagenknecht is known for her anti-immigration, anti-"woke" stances, while being economically left-wing. This has put her at odds with many LINKE members, which is why she left.

That makes her sound perfect, but a bit more research shows she's pro Russia. A shame.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Why would CDU and AFD loose voters to BSW?! And not SPD, Grune and Linke?!

In short, Wagenknecht is known for her anti-immigration, anti-"woke" stances, while being economically left-wing. This has put her at odds with many LINKE members, which is why she left.

That makes her sound perfect, but a bit more research shows she's pro Russia. A shame.

so it's basically the tankie party?

[Logical]

I have the perfect logo for her new party.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Why would CDU and AFD loose voters to BSW?! And not SPD, Grune and Linke?!

In short, Wagenknecht is known for her anti-immigration, anti-"woke" stances, while being economically left-wing. This has put her at odds with many LINKE members, which is why she left.

That makes her sound perfect, but a bit more research shows she's pro Russia. A shame.

so it's basically the tankie party?

It's a weird mix of WASG types (ex left-social democrat), quite normal Left Party types, has-beens (Klaus Ernst, Sabine Zimmermann) and total crackpots (Andrej Hunko, Sevim Dagdelen). And six of the ten BSW Bundestag members have a migrational background. That doesn't really look like the alleged "left-wing-nationalist" approach.

Wagenknecht is a good public speaker and has some appeal. And some are looking for a left-wing-populist alternative that is also against sanctioning Russia and is for expanding the welfare state. (which BSW allegedly is).

What we see in this one poll is Wagenknecht's personal appeal and people projecting their wishes into the new formation that isn't even a party yet. What way it will go isn't even clear as German law basically demands intra-party democracy, prohibits top-down parties and makes it almost impossible to kick members out as long as they pay their membership fees.

[DavidB.]

Wagenknecht's economic views aren't so clear to me. Wasn't she part of an openly Communist faction within Die Linke? How should we see her new project's economic views vis-a-vis those of Die Linke?

[palandio]

Why would CDU and AFD loose voters to BSW?! And not SPD, Grune and Linke?!

SPD and Greens don't lose voters to BSW because who currently intends to vote for SPD and Greens is generally content with them and the government, and if there is discontent among these voters, it is certainly not that kind of discontent that BSW would be able to address. BSW on the other hand is a protest party. Now I would say that a relevant share of BSW sympathizers have been SPD or Green voters at some in the past, but not anymore.

If you look at the general right-shift in German polls and the recent state elections, you must come to the conclusion that some voters who now vote right of center or even far-right, in the past have voted left of center. This doesn't mean that the CDU or the AfD are left-wing parties. And similarly just because a party wins over voters from the right doesn't necessarily mean that it is a right-wing party.

Also what Oryxslayer writes: A new party that mobilizes former non-responders/non-voters reduces all other parties' percentages, but particularly the strongest parties' percentages (particularly CDU/CSU, but also AfD).

[Yeahsayyeah]

Wagenknecht's economic views aren't so clear to me. Wasn't she part of an openly Communist faction within Die Linke? How should we see her new project's economic views vis-a-vis those of Die Linke?

Her Communist Platform days are obviously long gone. As chairwoman of the Left Party she basically argued the party line of expanding the welfare state, expanding and renovating infrastructure, strengthening unions and so on.

On the other hand she quoted Ludwig Erhard of ordoliberal/neoliberal fame at the BSW launch and the website tries to stress "moderate" economic views in the name of "reason", "classical" industrial policies, cheap fossil energy.

[xelas81]

Will new Wagenknecht party will be cordon sanitaired by mainstream parties (CDU, FDP, SPD Greens)?

[H. Ross Peron]

Why would CDU and AFD loose voters to BSW?! And not SPD, Grune and Linke?!

In short, Wagenknecht is known for her anti-immigration, anti-"woke" stances, while being economically left-wing. This has put her at odds with many LINKE members, which is why she left.

That makes her sound perfect, but a bit more research shows she's pro Russia. A shame.

so it's basically the tankie party?

It's a weird mix of WASG types (ex left-social democrat), quite normal Left Party types, has-beens (Klaus Ernst, Sabine Zimmermann) and total crackpots (Andrej Hunko, Sevim Dagdelen). And six of the ten BSW Bundestag members have a migrational background. That doesn't really look like the alleged "left-wing-nationalist" approach.

Wagenknecht is a good public speaker and has some appeal. And some are looking for a left-wing-populist alternative that is also against sanctioning Russia and is for expanding the welfare state. (which BSW allegedly is).

What we see in this one poll is Wagenknecht's personal appeal and people projecting their wishes into the new formation that isn't even a party yet. What way it will go isn't even clear as German law basically demands intra-party democracy, prohibits top-down parties and makes it almost impossible to kick members out as long as they pay their membership fees.

Yes, the idea of the Wagenknecht party as some kind of manifestation of Ossi welfare chauvinism seems overblown (though obviously there is an element of that). Most of Die Linke's MdBs with Middle Eastern backgrounds seem to have joined her party while someone has pointed out on Twitter that all of them except Wagenknecht herself represent former West Germany. Meanwhile, much of PDS Eastern old guard seems to be staying put.

[H. Ross Peron]

Wagenknecht's economic views aren't so clear to me. Wasn't she part of an openly Communist faction within Die Linke? How should we see her new project's economic views vis-a-vis those of Die Linke?

Her Communist Platform days are obviously long gone. As chairwoman of the Left Party she basically argued the party line of expanding the welfare state, expanding and renovating infrastructure, strengthening unions and so on.

On the other hand she quoted Ludwig Erhard of ordoliberal/neoliberal fame at the BSW launch and the website tries to stress "moderate" economic views in the name of "reason", "classical" industrial policies, cheap fossil energy.

It's not surprising given that much of her recent criticism of the traffic light coalition revolved around inflation and accordingly the BSW's rhetoric speaks of "economic reason". This article seems to give a decent summary of BSW's economic tendencies: https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/innenpolitik/wagenknecht-neue-partei-100.html

[Yeahsayyeah]

Will new Wagenknecht party will be cordon sanitaired by mainstream parties (CDU, FDP, SPD Greens)?

In a way, that no one wants to govern with them, at least at the federal level, because of foreign policies, probably yes. So, more like the Left Party, and not like the AfD, that gets excluded as much as possible from everything for obvious reasons.

[Ethelberth]

In European parliament,SMER would be the natural ally, hoverever, they would need one bigger ally, five-star propably.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1718206391809126701?t=r0NgJmQjL0g6f8lxUh...

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1718188106141106514?t=KrQNgBvCTGQ6ATDsbA...

I like this poll cause we can see how voters changed in the presence of BSW. The only party we can really say she pulls voters from right now, at the theoretical apex of voter attention to her candidacy,  is AfD. The rest seemingly come from the non-respondents, people who who either are not serviced by the current parties,  or are following their idealism to the party not yet tied to recognizable actions and positions.

[windjammer]

This probably means a AFD+Waggenknecht majority in some eastern lands.

[Yeahsayyeah]

This probably means a AFD+Waggenknecht majority in some eastern lands.

I don't think that is too likely

1. The percentage increase of the AfD in the last time has been quite universal, and if there are regional differences, they seem to have won more support in west german states.
2. If the INSA poll is correct, BSW would be pulling one third of their support from the AfD
3. We don't have any polls to see the potential regional differences in support, but as of know BSW seems more like a West German project (no Eastern Bundestag members, only one notable Left Party politician from the East, Sabine Zimmermann, who has been Left party chairwoman of Saxony for some years, Wagenknecht's power base and network in the Left party has been predominantly west German and her state party has been NRW for decades. Landtag elections in three Eastern states (Saxony, Thuringia, Brandenburg) will be in late summer/autumn 2024, already and it's far from clear, that they will get a credible organization with many credible candidates until then.

[President Johnson]

According to Saxony Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer (CDU), the Union already decided behind closed doors to put forward Friedrich Merz as their chancellor candidate in 2025. Officially, the "K-Frage" won't be decided before the fall of 2024.

Merz in my view would be one of the weakest challengers for Scholz. Forget about the current polling, as the last election and many state elections across the board demonstrate, things often move towards incumbents in the closing weeks. Merz can easily be painted as out of touch lobbyist (he worked for Black Rock in the 2010s) and as reactinary populist (I doubt many AfD voters will switch because of him). Daniel Günther or Hendrick Würst would be far more formidable candidates. I think even Söder would be.

[jaichind]

https://www.bild.de/politik/inland/politik-inland/online-umfrage-wahl-hammer-in-sachsen-86596620.bild.html

Theoretical AfD-Linke majority in the latest poll in Saxony.

[Duke of York]

https://www.bild.de/politik/inland/politik-inland/online-umfrage-wahl-hammer-in-sachsen-86596620.bild.html

Theoretical AfD-Linke majority in the latest poll in Saxony.

That is truly frightening that the reborn Nazi party leads in polls.

[President Johnson]

https://www.bild.de/politik/inland/politik-inland/online-umfrage-wahl-hammer-in-sachsen-86596620.bild.html

Theoretical AfD-Linke majority in the latest poll in Saxony.

That is truly frightening that the reborn Nazi party leads in polls.

Belongs in the state elections thread, but anyway. Indeed it's truly embarrassing that apparently some people have learned nothing from history or just think this so called alternative will cure all our ills like magic (I personally would support the AfD be outlawed, and some scholars recently made the case for a ban). However, my expectation is that there will be a late swing towards the party of the incumbent prime minister in all of these three states. CDU is still within striking distance in Saxony.