🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[jaichind]

If you split out CDU and CSU then AfD is now the #1 party

In other words, they still aren't in any meaningful sense?

Agreed.  But still a very impressive technical achievement.  Go AfD !!!

[CumbrianLefty]

A Trump return in the US + Macron and Scholz being so deeply unpopular in their countries that Marine Le Pen and AfD become the top leading political forces in their countries and are greatly positioned for the next elections?

It almost feels like the far-right wave during 2nd half of the 2010s was a tide in Europe in comparison to what could come next.

I think you are getting a bit over-excitable.

For a start, Trump's ratings are worse than Biden's and he's as likely to end up in jail as POTUS again.

[Lechasseur]

If you split out CDU and CSU then AfD is now the #1 party

In other words, they still aren't in any meaningful sense?

Doesn't the proposed new election law establish a hard 5% threshold, i.e., one which can no longer be be bypassed by winning three direct mandates? It it becomes reality, then it definitely matters a lot what the CSU vote portion is.

What I'm curious about there is it seems like precedent considers the Union to be one for all intents and purposes electorally (ex: the dispute over who was the leading party in 2005 between SPD and CDU; SPD were number 1 without CSU but the Union was barely number 1 with CSU counted).

I'd imagine the Union would probably challenge the results of CSU's seats were thrown out.

But I'd be interested in hearing from a more knowledgeable source.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Now the AfD reached 22% in a poll, they keep climbing higher and higher. I wouldn't be surprised if they average higher than CDU in a couple months.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

The CSU is probably safe under the new law other than an extremely bad election like 2021 or some freak overperformance in Bavaria by another party (e.g. both FW and AfD surge or something):



It's really Die Linke that is staring death in the face with the new law, on top of their already existing issues. The CSU will be fine in most elections, but 1.) it cuts down their number of seats by privileging the second vote over the first, and 2.) increases the chance of getting the boot in a bad election.

The Union is probably more concerned about 1. than 2., but they're probably still worried that 2 could happen more often going forward now that the Union is not getting the margins they previously did

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Now the AfD reached 22% in a poll, they keep climbing higher and higher. I wouldn't be surprised if they average higher than CDU in a couple months.

If you compare with polls from July 2022, the AfD must have gained support from SPD/Greens/FDP voters - because CDU/CSU and Linke have remained unchanged ...

[Middle-aged Europe]

Now the AfD reached 22% in a poll, they keep climbing higher and higher. I wouldn't be surprised if they average higher than CDU in a couple months.

If you compare with polls from July 2022, the AfD must have gained support from SPD/Greens/FDP voters - because CDU/CSU and Linke have remained unchanged ...

Or SPD/Greens/FDP have lost voters to CDU/Left and at the same time CDU/Left have lost voters to the AfD.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Now the AfD reached 22% in a poll, they keep climbing higher and higher. I wouldn't be surprised if they average higher than CDU in a couple months.

If you compare with polls from July 2022, the AfD must have gained support from SPD/Greens/FDP voters - because CDU/CSU and Linke have remained unchanged ...

Or SPD/Greens/FDP have lost voters to CDU/Left and at the same time CDU/Left have lost voters to the AfD.

Yes, that's another possbility. Or SPD/Greens/FDP went to non-voters, and other non-voters went to AfD.

[CumbrianLefty]

In most cases, "churn" better explains poll movement than straight swaps.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Also, German opinion polling outside election campaigns is just not very good. Odd patterns that don't quite line up are the norm.

[President Johnson]

Also, German opinion polling outside election campaigns is just not very good. Odd patterns that don't quite line up are the norm.

Oh, absolutely. This has been proven time and time again in several state elections as well as the federal level. Through the terms of Schröder, the SPD was often much further behind the CDU, in 2003 to mid 2005 sometimes in low/mid 20s territory while the Union was around 40-48% in some polls. In the end, he won reelection in 2002 and just lost by a single point in 2005. There's almost always a trend towards the incumbent late in the game. Even in 2021, Scholz was already some kind of a "soft incumbent" as he seemed to continue Merkel's style more than Laschet.

I'd be worried if polls still looked like this in July or August 2025. And afterall, Scholz is still the second most popular politician after Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD). Should Merz indeed end up as the candidate, it would easy to paint him as out-of-touch lobbyist with a ton of baggage in his record. The guy still voted to keep rape within marriage legal as late as 1997.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Interestingly, I had an increase in death threats around March/April when the Greens were still polling relatively high and the AfD low. Since then death threats have completely discontinued, but the polling has changed. It's possible that the most extreme elements in the electorate need some time to build up the momentum to drag the test of society with them.

Coincidentally, back in spring public support for Robet Habeck's heating bill was stronger than it is now - at a time when the contents of the bill were still calling for harsher measures though than it is the case now. In other words, the softer the law gets the bigger the opposition grows. These two factors are not directly related though , considering that opposition to the bill stems from people thinking that it is too harsh.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Left Party has nominated former refugee sea rescue vessel captain (formerly arrested by Italian authorities) Carola Rackete as lead candidate for the 2024 European election. This as much as a spiritual antithesis to Sahra Wagenknecht as you can possibly get.... up to the point that you might construe it as a final "get the f**k out" message to Wagenknecht.

[palandio]

Or to quote from an interview that Rackete gave to DER SPIEGEL on that occassion:
"This directional dispute among the Left (Party) has long since been decided. You filed the divorce papers but still live in the same house."

It was only a matter of time, but it's fascinating to see how fast the poles are drifting apart. It also makes sense particularly now that the Greens are governing and necessarily compromising, so there could be space for a more radical alternative. At the same time if the Left relegates economic, welfare and labor issues to second fiddle it might chase away the small rest of its "traditional" voter base who can then go to Wagenknecht; or to the SPD, if they don't like Putinphilia etc. and are ready to reconcile with the Agenda party.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Left Party has nominated former refugee sea rescue vessel captain (formerly arrested by Italian authorities) Carola Rackete as lead candidate for the 2024 European election. This as much as a spiritual antithesis to Sahra Wagenknecht as you can possibly get.... up to the point that you might construe it as a final "get the f**k out" message to Wagenknecht.

LMAO. Now that's a name I had not heard in a long time. I wonder if Salvini (or more likely Meloni, given Lega has crashed since their heydays when the Rackete incident happened) will try to use this fact in the 2024 campaign here.

[Middle-aged Europe]

AfD has nominated hardline Höcke ally Maximilian Krah as their lead candidate for the 2024 European election.


He's quite a gem that one... he's highly critical of the EU, calling it a "vassal of the United States". As such he's also opposed to assisting Ukraine, arguing that "it is not in our interest to wage America's wars". On the other hand, he frequently gives interviews in Russian and Chinese state media and he had congratulated the Communist Party of China on the 70th anniversary of the foundation of the People' Republic of China. Horseshoe theory in action, I guess.

When the Taliban retook Kabul in 2021 he called it "a correct answer to Pride Month". When Pope Francis went to visit Africa he accused the Pope of "licking Africa's boot". He downplayed human rights violations in Qatar, but at the same time has the habit of attacking George Soros. Speaking of Soros, Krah employs a French staffer in the European Parliament who used to be an enployee of Rassemblement National... until the RN fired said staffer for his alleged antisemitism.

Krah himself got suspended twice from the far-right Identity and Democracy group in the European Parliament for various transgressions, the first time for political reasons, the second time due to an corruption scandal.

I guess on the plus side this could perhaps hurt the AfD's current 20% standing in the polls. The party became too successful too fast and it kind of went to their heads.

[Red Velvet]

The far-right surge in Germany lines up with the country being a stand out in the big ones regarding the economy contracting.

If economic situation doesn’t normalize in Europe, the trend is for AfD to keep growing.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

So the Bavarian election is on October 8th, and it's looking dire for the SPD; they're polling in the 8-10% range.

Looking at previous elections, the Bavarian SPD used to poll 25-30% in the 1990s, and then starting in the 2000s it suffered massive losses (especially 2003 and 2018).

Why exactly is this happening? 2003 I can guess as part of the backlash against the Schröder government, with the Agenda 2010 and renewed recession in 2002-2003. But what exactly is the broader story here? Is this a case of progressive voters in Bavaria getting frustrated that the SPD cannot win, and so are looking to the Greens to be their new hope?

Usually when a party collapses like this, it's because they did something while in power (or had some kind of scandal) to severely piss off their voters. But the SPD has not participated in government in Bavaria since 1946 - 1957, so that can't be it. Was there some kind of scandal in the state party that wrecked it? Or what is going on with the BayernSPD?

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

So the Bavarian election is on October 8th, and it's looking dire for the SPD; they're polling in the 8-10% range.

Looking at previous elections, the Bavarian SPD used to poll 25-30% in the 1990s, and then starting in the 2000s it suffered massive losses (especially 2003 and 2018).

Why exactly is this happening? 2003 I can guess as part of the backlash against the Schröder government, with the Agenda 2010 and renewed recession in 2002-2003. But what exactly is the broader story here? Is this a case of progressive voters in Bavaria getting frustrated that the SPD cannot win, and so are looking to the Greens to be their new hope?

Usually when a party collapses like this, it's because they did something while in power (or had some kind of scandal) to severely piss off their voters. But the SPD has not participated in government in Bavaria since 1946 - 1947, so that can't be it. Was there some kind of scandal in the state party that wrecked it? Or what is going on with the BayernSPD?

My assumption is that it's partly protest votes against the German SPD/Green/FDP government in Berlin, partly longer-term trends of younger voters and immigrant-turned-citizens voting for the Greens and not the SPD any longer. The SPD is seen as old and dusty, the Greens are seen as a hipster party and modern in the eyes of young and immigrant-background voters.

[Germany1994]

So the Bavarian election is on October 8th, and it's looking dire for the SPD; they're polling in the 8-10% range.

Looking at previous elections, the Bavarian SPD used to poll 25-30% in the 1990s, and then starting in the 2000s it suffered massive losses (especially 2003 and 2018).

Why exactly is this happening? 2003 I can guess as part of the backlash against the Schröder government, with the Agenda 2010 and renewed recession in 2002-2003. But what exactly is the broader story here? Is this a case of progressive voters in Bavaria getting frustrated that the SPD cannot win, and so are looking to the Greens to be their new hope?

Usually when a party collapses like this, it's because they did something while in power (or had some kind of scandal) to severely piss off their voters. But the SPD has not participated in government in Bavaria since 1946 - 1947, so that can't be it. Was there some kind of scandal in the state party that wrecked it? Or what is going on with the BayernSPD?

Hi, just logged in into the forum.  

Since I live in Bavaria I try to answer your question. They were in government for the last time from 1954-1957 actually and even had the Minister President with Wilhelm Hoegner at that time.

The SPD always had a rather weak party organisation outside of the bigger cities in Bavaria, in many rural areas there aren´t any local chapters anymore due to the very few (old) members left, the CSU on the other side is basically present everywhere. So the SPD can´t really win the "material war" before elections with election posters and so on.

And while the party is still kinda successful in local elections and many cities have mayors from their ranks (Munich, Regensburg,Ingolstadt,...) these mayors simply don´t wanna jump into a hopeless election campaign on the state level. Christian Ude, long time popular mayor of Munich was their leading candidate in 2013 and while he improved the party vote to 20,6 % he had to find out that popularity on the local level doesn´t automatically qualify you for bigger tasks, he showed limited knowledge about the state as a whole (putting cities in different districts than they actually are,...) and many thought he only ran because he couldn´t continue as mayor from 2014 on due to reaching the age limit for mayors in Bavaria.

Generally the party simply doesn´t have any popular and known politicans here, their leading candidate this time, Florian von Brunn is an uncharismatic party soldier with the presence of a dry slice of toast which is still unknown to a large part of the population.

And as Purple Unicorn already said the Greens on the other side are generally seen as more "fresh" and modern these days.

Hope I could help you.  

[President Johnson]

So the Bavarian election is on October 8th, and it's looking dire for the SPD; they're polling in the 8-10% range.

Looking at previous elections, the Bavarian SPD used to poll 25-30% in the 1990s, and then starting in the 2000s it suffered massive losses (especially 2003 and 2018).

Why exactly is this happening? 2003 I can guess as part of the backlash against the Schröder government, with the Agenda 2010 and renewed recession in 2002-2003. But what exactly is the broader story here? Is this a case of progressive voters in Bavaria getting frustrated that the SPD cannot win, and so are looking to the Greens to be their new hope?

Usually when a party collapses like this, it's because they did something while in power (or had some kind of scandal) to severely piss off their voters. But the SPD has not participated in government in Bavaria since 1946 - 1947, so that can't be it. Was there some kind of scandal in the state party that wrecked it? Or what is going on with the BayernSPD?

Hi, just logged in into the forum.  

Since I live in Bavaria I try to answer your question. They were in government for the last time from 1954-1957 actually and even had the Minister President with Wilhelm Hoegner at that time.

The SPD always had a rather weak party organisation outside of the bigger cities in Bavaria, in many rural areas there aren´t any local chapters anymore due to the very few (old) members left, the CSU on the other side is basically present everywhere. So the SPD can´t really win the "material war" before elections with election posters and so on.

And while the party is still kinda successful in local elections and many cities have mayors from their ranks (Munich, Regensburg,Ingolstadt,...) these mayors simply don´t wanna jump into a hopeless election campaign on the state level. Christian Ude, long time popular mayor of Munich was their leading candidate in 2013 and while he improved the party vote to 20,6 % he had to find out that popularity on the local level doesn´t automatically qualify you for bigger tasks, he showed limited knowledge about the state as a whole (putting cities in different districts than they actually are,...) and many thought he only ran because he couldn´t continue as mayor from 2014 on due to reaching the age limit for mayors in Bavaria.

Generally the party simply doesn´t have any popular and known politicans here, their leading candidate this time, Florian von Brunn is an uncharismatic party soldier with the presence of a dry slice of toast which is still unknown to a large part of the population.

And as Purple Unicorn already said the Greens on the other side are generally seen as more "fresh" and modern these days.

Hope I could help you.  

Welcome to the Forum!

[Germany1994]

@President Johnson

Thanks. 

[Yeahsayyeah]

As the catholic/protestant cleavage has been important to shape the political landscape of Germany since the late 19th century the SPD has always been quite weak in Bavaria, historically, as their main base have been big industrial cities and at least partly industrialized protestant areas. So you have Munich, Nuremberg and surroundings and Upper Franconia, and that's basically it. Even Augsburg seems to have been never that of a stronghold.

[Germany1994]

As the catholic/protestant cleavage has been important to shape the political landscape of Germany since the late 19th century the SPD has always been quite weak in Bavaria, historically, as their main base have been big industrial cities and at least partly industrialized protestant areas. So you have Munich, Nuremberg and surroundings and Upper Franconia, and that's basically it. Even Augsburg seems to have been never that of a stronghold.

Despite increasing secularization these confessional differences still play a role. When you compare election results of CSU and SPD you can still see that the former is generally weaker in the rural Protestant areas of Franconia than in areas that are more Catholic while with the latter it´s the other way around.

You want examples?? Here are the results for CSU and SPD from two neighbouring counties in Upper Franconia, Lichtenfels and Kulmbach.

Kulmbach - 59,6 % Protestant, 26,0 % Catholic (Census 2011)

1990 - CSU 51,2 % ,SPD 34,4 %
1994 - CSU 46,2 %, SPD 42,1 %
1998 - CSU 41,3 %, SPD 42,9 %
2003 - CSU 53,5 %, SPD 29,7 %
2008 - CSU 42,5 %, SPD 28,8 %
2013 - CSU 45,5 %, SPD 29,6 %
2018 - CSU 37,9 %, SPD 19,5 %


Lichtenfels - 59,6 % Catholic, 28,0 % Protestant (Census 2011)

1990 - CSU 62,3 % ,SPD 26,3 %
1994 - CSU 55,8 %, SPD 32,4 %
1998 - CSU 52,8 %, SPD 31,0 %
2003 - CSU 66,0 %, SPD 20,2 %
2008 - CSU 51,8 %, SPD 21,9 %
2013 - CSU 50,0 %, SPD 22,2 %
2018 - CSU 42,7 %, SPD 11,9 %

[Kabam]

I also feel like since Bavaria is rather wealthy and economically doing well, the SPD does not really have any enticing topics for voters. The Greens have at least environmental protection and climate change, which seems to resonate more with voters.
Also, the Greens seem to increasingly do well in cities that are also doing relatively well - which are most Bavarian cities. I don't think the SPD can make up the detrimental, large losses they had in Munich anytime soon (19% loss for SPD, 19% gain for the Greens). The Greens also won Würzburg last time, came close in Regensburg and had above average gains in all bigger cities.
And the SPD does not have really any opportunity to make up for these losses anywhere else. The rural areas always voted more conservative and the few strongholds they had historically in rural, protestant areas are falling apart aswell.
The SPD could at least get decent results (while they were obviously not competitive for the CSU for a long time), because they really had not much competition for voters, which were dissatisfied with the CSU - especially in the bigger cities.