🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Astatine]

And why does it seem like many voters like Söder but not Merz? Are they really that different?

In policy, not terribly so. It's mostly a personality thing.

Merz comes off as an elitist and has the "rich a$$hole" air around him. He creeps a lot of people out, and comes off as stilted. He is literally the Mitt Romney of Germany.

Though Mitt Romney had to run against a charismatic Barack Obama in the 2012 election.

And Olaf Scholz is... Olaf Scholz.

[Astatine]

New AfD record high dropped.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1664937233969758208

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

New AfD record high dropped.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1664937233969758208

Say you had a federal election with this sort of result. What is the most likely coalition?

[JimJamUK]

Say you had a federal election with this sort of result. What is the most likely coalition?

Coalitions that are at least feasible:
CDU-SPD - 46% in this poll, in the area where they may just about reach a majority. Very narrow majority if so and it really could kill the SPD this time.
CDU-SPD-Green - Comfortable majority, probably spells trouble for at least one participant.
CDU-SPD-FDP - Reasonably comfortable majority, but would be bad for SPD and potentially the FDP.
CDU-Green-FDP - Narrow majority, the only option if the SPD were determined to go into opposition but would likely see the Greens pummelled (and the AFD the only right wing alternative…).

Nothing else is feasible, the AFD strength makes it difficult for some of the above to have a majority (nevermind the old 1 major + 1 minor party coalition) while Die Linke falling out would make it a bit easier (and it’s not like any left majority that could even theoretically be included in is anywhere near a majority).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Say you had a federal election with this sort of result. What is the most likely coalition?

Coalitions that are at least feasible:
CDU-SPD - 46% in this poll, in the area where they may just about reach a majority. Very narrow majority if so and it really could kill the SPD this time.
CDU-SPD-Green - Comfortable majority, probably spells trouble for at least one participant.
CDU-SPD-FDP - Reasonably comfortable majority, but would be bad for SPD and potentially the FDP.
CDU-Green-FDP - Narrow majority, the only option if the SPD were determined to go into opposition but would likely see the Greens pummelled (and the AFD the only right wing alternative…).

Nothing else is feasible, the AFD strength makes it difficult for some of the above to have a majority (nevermind the old 1 major + 1 minor party coalition) while Die Linke falling out would make it a bit easier (and it’s not like any left majority that could even theoretically be included in is anywhere near a majority).

CDU-SPD-Green seems like the best of these options if we are trying to spread the political risk and have a stable majority.

[Oryxslayer]

Say you had a federal election with this sort of result. What is the most likely coalition?

Coalitions that are at least feasible:
CDU-SPD - 46% in this poll, in the area where they may just about reach a majority. Very narrow majority if so and it really could kill the SPD this time.
CDU-SPD-Green - Comfortable majority, probably spells trouble for at least one participant.
CDU-SPD-FDP - Reasonably comfortable majority, but would be bad for SPD and potentially the FDP.
CDU-Green-FDP - Narrow majority, the only option if the SPD were determined to go into opposition but would likely see the Greens pummelled (and the AFD the only right wing alternative…).

Nothing else is feasible, the AFD strength makes it difficult for some of the above to have a majority (nevermind the old 1 major + 1 minor party coalition) while Die Linke falling out would make it a bit easier (and it’s not like any left majority that could even theoretically be included in is anywhere near a majority).

Additionally, there's also the possibility of Linke falling out of the Bundestag at least in terms of Proportional leveling seats. Because lets be honest, Linke fell under last time, have so far failed to grow despite the supposedly favorable environment, and if anything are getting closer to fragmenting infighting then growth. If this were to occur I think the very likely result would be a Grand Coalition majority, no matter if the polling stays the same as the past 6 months or if it were to narrow during a campaign between the big two.

[oldtimer]

Say you had a federal election with this sort of result. What is the most likely coalition?

Coalitions that are at least feasible:
CDU-SPD - 46% in this poll, in the area where they may just about reach a majority. Very narrow majority if so and it really could kill the SPD this time.
CDU-SPD-Green - Comfortable majority, probably spells trouble for at least one participant.
CDU-SPD-FDP - Reasonably comfortable majority, but would be bad for SPD and potentially the FDP.
CDU-Green-FDP - Narrow majority, the only option if the SPD were determined to go into opposition but would likely see the Greens pummelled (and the AFD the only right wing alternative…).

Nothing else is feasible, the AFD strength makes it difficult for some of the above to have a majority (nevermind the old 1 major + 1 minor party coalition) while Die Linke falling out would make it a bit easier (and it’s not like any left majority that could even theoretically be included in is anywhere near a majority).

CDU-SPD-Green seems like the best of these options if we are trying to spread the political risk and have a stable majority.

That looks like a recipe for the AFD to become Germany's largest party in the election after the next one.

At which point we have to guess who will the AFD's coalition partner be, or the good old speculation of what the CSU would do with an AFD larger than the CDU.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Are we really back to hyperventilating about German federal polls outside of the runup to an election? Haven't people learned by now?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Are we really back to hyperventilating about German federal polls outside of the runup to an election? Haven't people learned by now?

I dunno about others, but I'm not exactly running scared at this polling. If those poll results do happen in a federal election, it would be unwanted, but have interesting consequences.

[Oryxslayer]

Are we really back to hyperventilating about German federal polls outside of the runup to an election? Haven't people learned by now?

Unless a snap somehow occurs against everyones better judgement, single polls in the middle of a governments term have little value. The more relevant things are that the Union are approaching the one year anniversary of having large leads over SPD/Greens, and we are now over a year of Linke polling between 4 and 5%.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

It feels like at some point the AfD has to go into power in some form in order for people to realize how bad an idea it is to put them in power.

Until then, they remain the "I hate the current government" option

[S019]

at some point the AfD has to go into power in some form in order for people to realize how bad an idea it is to put them in power.

Until then, they remain the "I hate the current government" option

All this would end up doing is normalizing them. If the past decade or two is any indication letting far right parties into government isn't how you kill them off. Denmark is the example that everyone cites, but the far right just splintered into different parties there, it didn't die. If the AfD was in a coalition anywhere, they are no longer a "pariah," the people voting AfD are already, for the most part, aware of how crazy the party is, now there is a new contingent of perhaps far right-curious voters who are more institutional or establishment minded who would not vote for a pariah party, but would suddenly now consider the AfD. The worst possible strategy is to start treating the AfD as a possible CDU coalition partner. This is all academic because the Union isn't going to be breaking the cordon sanitaire anytime soon.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

at some point the AfD has to go into power in some form in order for people to realize how bad an idea it is to put them in power.

Until then, they remain the "I hate the current government" option

All this would end up doing is normalizing them. If the past decade or two is any indication letting far right parties into government isn't how you kill them off. Denmark is the example that everyone cites, but the far right just splintered into different parties there, it didn't die. If the AfD was in a coalition anywhere, they are no longer a "pariah," the people voting AfD are already, for the most part, aware of how crazy the party is, now there is a new contingent of perhaps far right-curious voters who are more institutional or establishment minded who would not vote for a pariah party, but would suddenly now consider the AfD. The worst possible strategy is to start treating the AfD as a possible CDU coalition partner. This is all academic because the Union isn't going to be breaking the cordon sanitaire anytime soon.

Perhaps, but I think there's a sizable contingent of voters who don't actually support the far right nonsense but hopped on because they don't like the other options.

My worry is that as the other parties cooperate for longer to leave them out, it leaves those voters with no other choices. As JimJam pointed out, any government with SPD would probably destroy them. And the one likely alternative would leave only the AfD as the right wing anti-government option.

I'm not saying it's good, I'm saying people are stupid and not realizing what they're strengthening.

[S019]

at some point the AfD has to go into power in some form in order for people to realize how bad an idea it is to put them in power.

Until then, they remain the "I hate the current government" option

All this would end up doing is normalizing them. If the past decade or two is any indication letting far right parties into government isn't how you kill them off. Denmark is the example that everyone cites, but the far right just splintered into different parties there, it didn't die. If the AfD was in a coalition anywhere, they are no longer a "pariah," the people voting AfD are already, for the most part, aware of how crazy the party is, now there is a new contingent of perhaps far right-curious voters who are more institutional or establishment minded who would not vote for a pariah party, but would suddenly now consider the AfD. The worst possible strategy is to start treating the AfD as a possible CDU coalition partner. This is all academic because the Union isn't going to be breaking the cordon sanitaire anytime soon.

Perhaps, but I think there's a sizable contingent of voters who don't actually support the far right nonsense but hopped on because they don't like the other options.

Well, unfortunately, the far right does not always only win the insane nut jobs. Perhaps the best example of this is in Austria, where for many years the FPO tent consisted of both ex-Nazis and liberals. The liberals ended up there largely out of a lack of other options, given the ties of the right to the church and the ties of the social democrats to unions. The party presented itself as "liberal," but it had explicitly post-Nazi origins and welcomed ex-Nazis both into the party and into leadership. You do not have to be far right to share a party with the far right, and by extension you don't have to be far right to vote for the far right.

My worry is that as the other parties cooperate for longer to leave them out, it leaves those voters with no other choices. As JimJam pointed out, any government with SPD would probably destroy them. And the one likely alternative would leave only the AfD as the right wing anti-government option.

I struggle to see the reasoning here. Those dissatisfied with the SPD for joining a right leaning government would not be opting for the AfD.



AfD's gains came mostly from non-voters, the types of people who are unhappy with the system and would not vote if they were around. The second biggest contributor was unsurprisingly the CDU and the CDU picked Merz as leader in part to tack to the right to win back some of these voters. It looks like that isn't working and frankly if that doesn't work, I don't know if anything will.

I'm not saying it's good, I'm saying people are stupid and not realizing what they're strengthening.

Cooperating with them would immediately legitimize them as a genuine governing partner, that would strengthen them more than any ostracization would. We are still well away from the next election. They could easily fall back to their previous numbers once the series of factors currently boosting them, such as dissatisfaction over migration and high inflation, pass. To make the shortsighted mistake of welcoming them into a coalition now would ensure that their support stays high, and that is a mistake that everyone will pay dearly for.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

at some point the AfD has to go into power in some form in order for people to realize how bad an idea it is to put them in power.

Until then, they remain the "I hate the current government" option

All this would end up doing is normalizing them. If the past decade or two is any indication letting far right parties into government isn't how you kill them off. Denmark is the example that everyone cites, but the far right just splintered into different parties there, it didn't die. If the AfD was in a coalition anywhere, they are no longer a "pariah," the people voting AfD are already, for the most part, aware of how crazy the party is, now there is a new contingent of perhaps far right-curious voters who are more institutional or establishment minded who would not vote for a pariah party, but would suddenly now consider the AfD. The worst possible strategy is to start treating the AfD as a possible CDU coalition partner. This is all academic because the Union isn't going to be breaking the cordon sanitaire anytime soon.

Perhaps, but I think there's a sizable contingent of voters who don't actually support the far right nonsense but hopped on because they don't like the other options.

Well, unfortunately, the far right does not always only win the insane nut jobs. Perhaps the best example of this is in Austria, where for many years the FPO tent consisted of both ex-Nazis and liberals. The liberals ended up there largely out of a lack of other options, given the ties of the right to the church and the ties of the social democrats to unions. The party presented itself as "liberal," but it had explicitly post-Nazi origins and welcomed ex-Nazis both into the party and into leadership. You do not have to be far right to share a party with the far right, and by extension you don't have to be far right to vote for the far right.

My worry is that as the other parties cooperate for longer to leave them out, it leaves those voters with no other choices. As JimJam pointed out, any government with SPD would probably destroy them. And the one likely alternative would leave only the AfD as the right wing anti-government option.

I struggle to see the reasoning here. Those dissatisfied with the SPD for joining a right leaning government would not be opting for the AfD.



AfD's gains came mostly from non-voters, the types of people who are unhappy with the system and would not vote if they were around. The second biggest contributor was unsurprisingly the CDU and the CDU picked Merz as leader in part to tack to the right to win back some of these voters. It looks like that isn't working and frankly if that doesn't work, I don't know if anything will.

I'm not saying it's good, I'm saying people are stupid and not realizing what they're strengthening.

Cooperating with them would immediately legitimize them as a genuine governing partner, that would strengthen them more than any ostracization would. We are still well away from the next election. They could easily fall back to their previous numbers once the series of factors currently boosting them, such as dissatisfaction over migration and high inflation, pass. To make the shortsighted mistake of welcoming them into a coalition now would ensure that their support stays high, and that is a mistake that everyone will pay dearly for.

It's a fair point. I'm just making one I think may have some merit in certain circumstances long term.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

the important thing is to try nd ensure they aren't in a position where they must be considered.

[Red Velvet]

New AfD record high dropped.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1664937233969758208

It will only grow considering Scholz level of disapproval. 80% disapprove and 20% approve.

EU economic downturn, especially the one in Germany, into full effect but somehow I doubt it’s just that.

https://twitter.com/eleicoeseuropa/status/1665100168377540611?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

The AfD hits 20% - they say it is a record-high in pre-election polling:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1667123675126956032

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1667124085132783617

[DL]

It wasn't that long ago that you could easily see a pure right of centre coalition in Germany where the CDU and FDP had a majority. Now with the growth of the AFD those days are over. The best conservatives in Germany can ever hope for is another grand coalition that is either CDU/SPD or CDU/Green.

[Ferguson97]

I don't know much about German politics, but AfD is like... really really bad, right?

[Middle-aged Europe]

I don't know much about German politics, but AfD is like... really really bad, right?

For the most part I'd say they're pretty close to the source material in emulating the American alt-right and/or Trumpism.

They've got it all... the anti-immigration message, the conspiracy theories, the pandering to the anti-vaxxing crowd, and the idolization of Vladimir Putin (they're possibly even more pro-Russian on the Ukraine issue than most German far-leftists, stemming from a greater idelogical overlap between Putinism and the AfD's general idelogy). They're probably only more secular than their American counterpart, because nobody gives a sh**t about the Bible around here, especially in the AfD's strongholds in the East.

In addition to that, the party's ultra-right wing around Björn Höcke has a bit of a habit of occasionally using codes from pre-1945 Nazi era. And a couple of years back Höcke himself had said something along the lines that he's opposed to the concept of a Judeo-Christian culture, because in his eyes Judaism and Christianity don't belong together.

[Yeahsayyeah]

If one considers state level polls, the surge in the last months seems especially to be fueled by breakthroughs in the big West German states where they have been quite weak historically, especially Nordrhein-Westfalen and Niedersachsen.

[Middle-aged Europe]

One wonders why the AfD hadn't already skyrocketed in that manner sometime last year, with rampant inflation, exploding energy prizes, the fear of energy blackouts during the winter and a million refugees from the East coming here, all in the wake of the Ukraine invasion.

My personal explanation is that a certain consensus has ended. Last year there was a feeling of "we have all pull together", creating sort of a rally around the flag effect where there was little infighting within the coalition, the CDU supported most of the government's actions, and the media was still relatively tame in its criticism of the traffic light policies.

After the FDP fell below 5% in the Berlin state election this February they quickly began to attack policies they had previously agreed upon a year earlier, leading to more conflict within the government and subsequently a feeling that they can't get sh**t done. It also doesn't help when potentially controversial decisions don't even seem to have the unwaivering support of all governing parties anymore, which arguably still had been the case during 2022. Shortly therafter, BILD and other right-wing outlets then started to come to the FDP's assistance, breaking the media consensus.

The AfD seems to thrive on that conflict and increased polarization, even though they always had been more a spectator here than an active force in their own right. Ironically, the FDP still polls the 6%, although they did manage dragging the Greens down with them. Congrats.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

snippidy snip

I agree with all of this but there is one big external event that has become salient since the start of 2023 that you have missed: a massive increase in asylum applications from outside of Europe.

Hidden behind the numbers of the 1.4 million Ukrainians who have come to Germany, is another 244,000 asylum seekers primarily from the Middle East, Central Asia (especially Afghanistan and Iran), and Africa. In just the first three months of 2023, the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees has received over 80,000 asylum applications, 78% more than the number received in the same period in 2022.

States and municipalities have been loudly sounding the alarm for the past 6 months about how it is getting increasingly difficult to manage. They lack proper housing, so more highly-visible tent and trailer accommodations have been set up for refugees. It's also putting a strain on state and municipal budgets, as not only do they have to care for, feed, and educate refugees, but they also have to dedicate more and more personnel from other departments to helping with refugees. And civil society organizations are also stretched to their limits.

In May, there was an asylum summit between the states and the federal government, where the feds provided an immediate 1 billion EUR in emergency aid, and also agreed to speed up deportations of those whose applications have been rejected, expand the number of detention days from 10 to 28, as well as new investments to modernize IT systems to speed up processing (because Germany is stuck in the 1980s for some reason). They agreed to have another summit in October 2023 after the results of results of the Common European Asylum System reforms at the EU level to determine a permanent funding solution. The fact that the federal government took so long to hold the summit certainly does not help its image.

Some estimates I have seen project some 800,000 total asylum applications in 2023 alone. There is a feeling of perpetual crisis and state and local governments have been very open about how much stress they are under and how desperate the situation is getting.

Now we see the AfD rising in frustration about not only government infighting, the PR catastrophe that was the new Building Energy Law, and now also a renewed asylum crisis. The Federal Ministry of the Interior has also reported that attacks on asylum centers, while not as high as 2015-2016, have increased by a whopping 70% in 2022 compared to 2021.

Polling shows that a supermajority of Germans do not trust any party to handle refugees and asylum seekers, so this holds both promise and danger.

[Vosem]

I wonder if part of the story of the surge for far-right options isn't the recent success of far-right parties in other parts of the continent? The Sweden Democrats were if anything more ostracized than the AfD until 2022, but now they've entered a government and have had real influence on Kristersson's policies (or at least his rhetoric); Giorgia Meloni's party was never really ostracized in the same way, but her leading a government as Prime Minister is also sort of unprecedented. (The RN in France have not yet entered government, but in 2022 the 'republican front' clearly broke down at the voter level, with not just center-right but many centrist voters preferring the RN to left-wing candidates, which would've been unthinkable in, like, 2017.) The western European far-right had a very successful year in 2022, and so voting for an organization like the AfD must feel less unrealistic now.