🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[President Johnson]

So Scholz now wants to make vaccination mandatory, just like in Austria. His first broken promise: in September, right before the election, he said he opposed it. Truly wonder whether the FDP will accept this.

It won't matter. Scholz wants to go ahead the way exactly what Marco Buschmann said he supports: Bundestag to decide without fraction discipline or coalition discipline. Which should pass easily with substantial CDU/CSU and even Linke support, and allows the FDP to save face without harming the coalition. Although I personally think it is likely they will water it down a bit to something like all professions with customer contact/medical care/education etc. because mandatory vaccinations for all could be legally difficult to implement.

Exactly, and the public is on his side as well. In a most recent poll, 69% were in favor of a general vaccine mandate.

I just think politicians of all parties except for AfD should never have ruled out the mandate indefinitely before. However, I don't think it's fair to accuse them of breaking promises since circumstances have vastly changed. Who in the world hasn't changed a position at some point when new scientific evidence comes in? Back in spring and summer, the expectation was that 75-80% or even 85% would get vaccinated, which would have been enough for the Alpha variant. Now we're talking about Delta, which requires around 85%. And who knows what happens with Omicron? For the sake of our collective health and the economic stability, we need a mandate to prevent a fifth wave in spring or next fall.

[buritobr]

Angela Merkel chose a Nina Hagen song to the band of the army to play in her farewell cerimony https://www.insidehook.com/daily_brief/music/angela-merkel-nina-hagen-song-farewell

[Continential]

This thread is the second longest international elections thread, only behind the old thread.

[urutzizu]

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/corona-christian-lindner-will-wohl-fuer-impfpflicht-stimmen-a-e7f1311a-8a8b-4a0d-b0f3-58669e08f560

Lindner says he is leaning towards mandatory vaccination, and he will most likely vote for it. On the point of the FDP being dominant in the negotiations on economic issues, its is often neglected just how many previously unimaginable ideological sacrifices the FDP has been willing to make in terms of pandemic fighting. For all three parties this is a permanent political realignment, bigger than any idea or concept, bigger than the interests or privileges of any one individual or group. Comparable to 1969.

[President Johnson]

BREAKING: Olaf Scholz is scheduled to be elected Chancellor next Wednesday, December 8. Bundestag administration just confirmed the date. He needs an absolute majority of 369 votes in the first round, which he's likely to surpass quite handily has the trafficlight coalition has a clear majority of 416 seats.

I'm absolutely thrilled we're officially going to have a SPD Chancellor again, which obviously has never been the case since I joined the party in 2013.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So Merkel is set to break the record after all?

[President Johnson]

So Merkel is set to break the record after all?

No, she would have to stay on to December 19. Narrowly missing the record set by Helmut Kohl.

[Sozialliberal]

So Scholz now wants to make vaccination mandatory, just like in Austria. His first broken promise: in September, right before the election, he said he opposed it. Truly wonder whether the FDP will accept this.

It won't matter. Scholz wants to go ahead the way exactly what Marco Buschmann said he supports: Bundestag to decide without fraction discipline or coalition discipline. Which should pass easily with substantial CDU/CSU and even Linke support, and allows the FDP to save face without harming the coalition. Although I personally think it is likely they will water it down a bit to something like all professions with customer contact/medical care/education etc. because mandatory vaccinations for all could be legally difficult to implement.

Exactly, and the public is on his side as well. In a most recent poll, 69% were in favor of a general vaccine mandate.

I just think politicians of all parties except for AfD should never have ruled out the mandate indefinitely before. However, I don't think it's fair to accuse them of breaking promises since circumstances have vastly changed. Who in the world hasn't changed a position at some point when new scientific evidence comes in? Back in spring and summer, the expectation was that 75-80% or even 85% would get vaccinated, which would have been enough for the Alpha variant. Now we're talking about Delta, which requires around 85%. And who knows what happens with Omicron? For the sake of our collective health and the economic stability, we need a mandate to prevent a fifth wave in spring or next fall.

I believe FDP politician Andrew Ullmann said it best when he said that the FDP is not only a party of liberty, but also a party of responsibility. Ullmann (who is a German-American dual citizen by the way) teaches about infectious diseases at the University of Würzburg. He has been a Bundestag member for the FDP since 2017.

It's not responsible that the intensive care units of some hospitals are overcrowded because people have refused to get vaccinated without good reason. There's a young woman in Bavaria who has two children aged two and four years old. She has breast cancer, and she's very worried that her tumor operation might be postponed because the hospital has to treat so many COVID-19 patients. The woman lives in daily fear that her children will have to grow up without her. Around 75% of German hospitals already had to postpone plannable operations. Without compulsory vaccinations for everyone who can get vaccinated, we could experience a fifth or maybe even a sixth wave of infections.

Most of the agenda look like leftist.

I am impressed how the FDP did the concessions easily.

The FDP of today no longer turns a blind eye to poverty. The party has moved to the left under Lindner's leadership (although he would never admit that). Two of the FDP's principles are "world-class education for everyone" and "getting ahead through personal achievement". While politicians of Die Linke will agree with the first principle, they will have doubts about the second.

The Green showdown for ministerial positions has come to an end:

- Economy and Climate: Robert Habeck
- Foreign Affairs: Annalena Baerbock
- Agriculture: Cem Özdemir
- Family Affairs: Anne Spiegel
- Environment: Steffi Lemke
- State Secretary for Culture and Media: Claudia Roth

Isn't  Özdemir an urbanite politican with a mostly city-based district ? Does he have any experience or antyhing with agriculture ? seems like a bizzare spot for a politican of his caliber and experience.

Yeah, it surprised me too at first, but after thinking about it, this decision makes perfect sense. In the 80s and 90s, CDU/CSU and the Greens were very hostile towards each other (Baden-Württemberg being a bit of an exception). So in 1995, individual politicians both from the Union and the Greens formed a discussion group to find points of agreement. This group is known as the "Pizza Connection", so called because it met at an Italian restaurant. A prominent critic of the group, then CSU general secretary Bernd Protzner, came up with the name that is reminiscent of Italian American mobsters. Cem Özdemir was also part of the so-called "Pizza Connection" in the 90s, which means he has a lot of experience in trying to find common ground with conservatives. As agriculture minister, he will need this experience because most German farmers are loyal CDU/CSU voters who are sceptical about a Green agriculture minister. Joachim Rukwied, chairman of Germany's largest farmers' association (and also a CDU member!), has already praised Özdemir as a pragmatist.

Isn't  Özdemir an urbanite politican with a mostly city-based district ? Does he have any experience or antyhing with agriculture ? seems like a bizzare spot for a politican of his caliber and experience.

Qualification has never been a prerequisite for a cabinet post in German politics. That's why Dr. Lauterbach is likely to never become health minister. (That and because Olaf Scholz and the FDP despise him.)
Özdemir ought to become Foreign Minister, not only because he is fluent in at least two more languages than ACAB. (That and because PUTP disdains him.)
In Schleswig-Holstein, for example, we have a Green kindergarten teacher as Finance Minister.
Another apt example is Sigmar Gabriel and Barbara Hendricks, both of whom were appointed environment minister despite Michael Müller (not to be confused with the current Berlin Mayor), a renowned environmental politician and environmentalist journalist) desperately seeking the nomination.

Lauterbach is certainly a respectable academic, and I like his constructive style of communication, but that doesn't automatically make him a good minister. Most importantly, you need leadership skills and political instinct as a minister. You must know how to motivate people because you won't get far if you don't have loyal staff who do groundwork for you.

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/corona-christian-lindner-will-wohl-fuer-impfpflicht-stimmen-a-e7f1311a-8a8b-4a0d-b0f3-58669e08f560

Lindner says he is leaning towards mandatory vaccination, and he will most likely vote for it. On the point of the FDP being dominant in the negotiations on economic issues, its is often neglected just how many previously unimaginable ideological sacrifices the FDP has been willing to make in terms of pandemic fighting. For all three parties this is a permanent political realignment, bigger than any idea or concept, bigger than the interests or privileges of any one individual or group. Comparable to 1969.

We've never seen anything like this pandemic in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany. It's therefore not surprising that the FDP is struggling to find the right balance between personal liberty and public security. I don't think the situation would be any different if the FDP had entered a Jamaica coalition.

Angela Merkel chose a Nina Hagen song to the band of the army to play in her farewell cerimony https://www.insidehook.com/daily_brief/music/angela-merkel-nina-hagen-song-farewell

"Großer Zapfenstreich" (Grand Tattoo) is the highest ranking German military ceremony that is performed for civilians. It's a farewell present for outgoing presidents, chancellors and ministers of defense. The honored person can request up to four songs to be played by the military band. The news channel Phoenix compiled some highlights from previous grand tattoos in a video. Gerhard Schröder's grand tattoo was perhaps the most memorable one. He broke down in tears while the band was playing Frank Sinatra's "My Way" for him.

The songs are:

• Ludwig van Beethoven – Ode to Joy (requested by Chancellor Helmut Kohl, 1998)
• Johann Sebastian Bach – Jesu, Joy of Man's Desiring (requested by President Johannes Rau, 2004)
• Frank Sinatra – My Way (requested by Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, 2005)
• Michael Englert – Wann wir schreiten Seit' an Seit' (traditional labor movement song, often played at the end of SPD conventions, requested by Minister of Defense Peter Struck, 2005)
• W. C. Handy – St. Louis Blues (requested by President Horst Köhler, 2010)
• Deep Purple – Smoke on the Water (requested by Minister of Defense Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, 2011)

[Lechasseur]

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/corona-christian-lindner-will-wohl-fuer-impfpflicht-stimmen-a-e7f1311a-8a8b-4a0d-b0f3-58669e08f560

Lindner says he is leaning towards mandatory vaccination, and he will most likely vote for it. On the point of the FDP being dominant in the negotiations on economic issues, its is often neglected just how many previously unimaginable ideological sacrifices the FDP has been willing to make in terms of pandemic fighting. For all three parties this is a permanent political realignment, bigger than any idea or concept, bigger than the interests or privileges of any one individual or group. Comparable to 1969.

In what way is this a permanent political realignment?

[brucejoel99]

So Merkel is set to break the record after all?

No, she would have to stay on to December 19. Narrowly missing the record set by Helmut Kohl.

Oh well, I guess we can always just hope instead that Scholz is still Chancellor on Jan. 4th, 2038

[President Johnson]

SPD Convention has formally approved the coalition agreement with more than 98% of the vote earlier today. A remarkably strong result, but you really feel how the party is excited over winning the chancellorship again. Scholz also gave a good speech at the convention, that mostly took place online.

FDP Convention is about to take place tomorrow and almost certainly vote in favor, too.

Greens are currently holding an online referendum among their members, which most likely will approve the agreement as well.

[Sozialliberal]

SPD Convention has formally approved the coalition agreement with more than 98% of the vote earlier today. A remarkably strong result, but you really feel how the party is excited over winning the chancellorship again. Scholz also gave a good speech at the convention, that mostly took place online.

FDP Convention is about to take place tomorrow and almost certainly vote in favor, too.

Greens are currently holding an online referendum among their members, which most likely will approve the agreement as well.

92.2% of the FDP delegates have approved the coalition agreement (6.4% no-votes and 1.4% abstentions). The Greens will announce the results of their membership vote tomorrow.

[President Johnson]

SPD Convention has formally approved the coalition agreement with more than 98% of the vote earlier today. A remarkably strong result, but you really feel how the party is excited over winning the chancellorship again. Scholz also gave a good speech at the convention, that mostly took place online.

FDP Convention is about to take place tomorrow and almost certainly vote in favor, too.

Greens are currently holding an online referendum among their members, which most likely will approve the agreement as well.

92.2% of the FDP delegates have approved the coalition agreement (6.4% no-votes and 1.4% abstentions). The Greens will announce the results of their membership vote tomorrow.

Pretty good result. There was mostly praise of the coalition agreement in various speeches at the convention (I watched most of it). Lindner also gave a fairly good speech as usual. I certainly noticed that his tone since the election has become much more statesman-like.

[President Johnson]

BREAKING: Olaf Scholz just nominated SPD ministers. Biggest name: Karl Lauterbach will become Health Minister. Very best choice!

The ministers are:

- Health: Karl Lauterbach (Bundestag member since 2005, doctor, health economist and epidemiologist, arose to national prominence during the pandemic in particular. Obviously highly qualified)
- Defense: Christine Lambrecht (current Justice Minister; she was expected to switch to Interior before)
- Interior: Nancy Faeser (Hesse state politician, leader of SPD Hesse)
- Labor & Social Affairs: Hubertus Heil (retains his position, has built a solid reputation during the Merkel IV cabinet)
- Housing & Construction (new ministery): Klara Geywitz (SPD deputy leader and former Brandenburg politician, ran as co-leader with Scholz in 2019)
- Economic Cooperation: Svenja Schulze (outgoing Minister of Environment)
- Chancellery: Wolfgang Schmidt (long-time confidant and friend of Scholz)


All summed up: Definite FF cabinet across the parties.

[Astatine]

Lambrecht seems like a totally bad choice. She has never had contact to Defense policy at all, and after the last Defense Ministers were either large-scale failures (von der Leyen) or well-intentioned mediocre tryhards (AKK) at best, it would've been great to see someone competent in that position.

Retrospectively, FDP should have received the Defense Department and SPD Justice - Lambrecht could have kept her job and Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann or Alexander Graf Lambsdorf could've become Defense Minister.

At least Heiko Maas is out for good.

[Middle-aged Europe]

So Scholz now wants to make vaccination mandatory, just like in Austria. His first broken promise: in September, right before the election, he said he opposed it. Truly wonder whether the FDP will accept this.

It won't matter. Scholz wants to go ahead the way exactly what Marco Buschmann said he supports: Bundestag to decide without fraction discipline or coalition discipline. Which should pass easily with substantial CDU/CSU and even Linke support, and allows the FDP to save face without harming the coalition. Although I personally think it is likely they will water it down a bit to something like all professions with customer contact/medical care/education etc. because mandatory vaccinations for all could be legally difficult to implement.

Exactly, and the public is on his side as well. In a most recent poll, 69% were in favor of a general vaccine mandate.

I just think politicians of all parties except for AfD should never have ruled out the mandate indefinitely before. However, I don't think it's fair to accuse them of breaking promises since circumstances have vastly changed. Who in the world hasn't changed a position at some point when new scientific evidence comes in? Back in spring and summer, the expectation was that 75-80% or even 85% would get vaccinated, which would have been enough for the Alpha variant. Now we're talking about Delta, which requires around 85%. And who knows what happens with Omicron? For the sake of our collective health and the economic stability, we need a mandate to prevent a fifth wave in spring or next fall.

While I agree that cirumstances (and more importantly, public opinion) have changed and a general vaccination mandate now seems necessary, it's more like the wishful thinking of some in the political class hasn't come to pass with regards to Corona or Delta. I vividly remember statements from Drosten and others in September and even as soon as August who had warned us of exactly the situation we are in right now. Around the same time the virologists started to play Cassandra Jens Spahn and others had made statements to the effect that everything is jolly-good and we're gonna sail smoothly through the winter, despite the fact that the country's full vaccination rate seemed to have been locked in at 65% for at least two months in a row. Incompetence and negligence across all political parties brought us the current situation, not new scientific data.

That being said, who cares if Scholz is "breaking promises" now? Since 70% of the citizenry is by now supporting a general vaccination mandate the majority of the country certainly won't be angry at him because of his change of heart. Maybe one could blame him (or others) for too much opportunism though. In the summer, the majority of the population had opposed a vaccination mandate and so did the politicians. When public opinion started to shift in November, so did the politicians' stances.

[President Johnson]

Lambrecht seems like a totally bad choice. She has never had contact to Defense policy at all, and after the last Defense Ministers were either large-scale failures (von der Leyen) or well-intentioned mediocre tryhards (AKK) at best, it would've been great to see someone competent in that position.

Retrospectively, FDP should have received the Defense Department and SPD Justice - Lambrecht could have kept her job and Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann or Alexander Graf Lambsdorf could've become Defense Minister.

At least Heiko Maas is out for good.

I would have preferred Strack-Zimmerman as well, and SPD keeping the Justice Ministry, though Lambrecht has been described as an allrounder who's very quick in getting into new stuff. She certainly has proven substantial management skills in recent years. Remember that a lot of chief government roles are about proper management. All ministrys certainly have issue-oriented experts of rank and file. However, it's certainly fine to have proper expertise, which is why Karl Lauterbach is the best possible Health Minister. Even putting aside the large public demand for his appointment. He has almost become a cult-like figure, lmao.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

He has almost become a cult-like figure, lmao.

that doesn't sound like a good thing

[urutzizu]

He has almost become a cult-like figure, lmao.

that doesn't sound like a good thing

Sure. That's why appointing him to the most thankless ministry in Government (perhaps tied with defense, but probably even more) is amazing. Gets to decide none of the pandemic restrictions (almost entirely a state competency) but has to solve a growing mammoth of problems in terms of social care, health care funding and personnel which are practically impossible for anyone because they are caused by demographic problems that can only be addressed very long-term and even then completely outside the remit of the ministry (Immigration, Finance etc.).

And I mean hey, maybe he can actually put his medical background to good use and manages to address these issues that his lawyer and PolSci majors etc. predecessors failed at, then he deserves it all and the whole country is in a better state.

[CumbrianLefty]

Greens easily approved the coalition deal, but low turnout meant it was just under 50% of members.

[President Johnson]

Greens easily approved the coalition deal, but low turnout meant it was just under 50% of members.

It was 57% turnout, and 86% voted in favor.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Lambrecht seems like a totally bad choice. She has never had contact to Defense policy at all, and after the last Defense Ministers were either large-scale failures (von der Leyen) or well-intentioned mediocre tryhards (AKK) at best, it would've been great to see someone competent in that position.

Retrospectively, FDP should have received the Defense Department and SPD Justice - Lambrecht could have kept her job and Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann or Alexander Graf Lambsdorf could've become Defense Minister.

At least Heiko Maas is out for good.

I was really surprised that Strack-Zimmermann did not become MoD. With Lambrecht, the issue is that she gave a rather solid performance at Justice and there was a necessity to ensure gender parity. But it is obvious that the MoD has now finally become a second-tier ministry without much influence. Gone are the days when it was a serious counterpart to the Auswärtige Amt.

Obviously, Lauterbach is a pretty irrational choice. Very polarizing + questionable character + strong maverick vibes. Not sure why Scholz went for him. Too much pressure from the basis?

[Pick Up the Phone]

Re Özdemir: It is no secret that he was absolutely desperate to get a cabinet position and this was probably his last chance - a true 'now or never' moment. Since at least the mid 2000s, he had obvious aspirations to become Minister of Foreign Affairs. Now, with Baerbock blocking this option and the FDP getting the Ministry of Transport (Özdemir was Chairman of the Bundestag's Committee on Transport), Agriculture was apparently the only option left. Nonetheless, it is definitely an unexpected position for the first minister of Turkish descent(!).

Re Faeser: Very strange choice. Complete no-name in federal politics.

Re Heil: No brainer, good that he stays on.

[President Johnson]

Lambrecht seems like a totally bad choice. She has never had contact to Defense policy at all, and after the last Defense Ministers were either large-scale failures (von der Leyen) or well-intentioned mediocre tryhards (AKK) at best, it would've been great to see someone competent in that position.

Retrospectively, FDP should have received the Defense Department and SPD Justice - Lambrecht could have kept her job and Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann or Alexander Graf Lambsdorf could've become Defense Minister.

At least Heiko Maas is out for good.

I was really surprised that Strack-Zimmermann did not become MoD. With Lambrecht, the issue is that she gave a rather solid performance at Justice and there was a necessity to ensure gender parity. But it is obvious that the MoD has now finally become a second-tier ministry without much influence. Gone are the days when it was a serious counterpart to the Auswärtige Amt.

Obviously, Lauterbach is a pretty irrational choice. Very polarizing + questionable character + strong maverick vibes. Not sure why Scholz went for him. Too much pressure from the basis?

There was a large public demand for Lauterbach; even CDU politicians and Markus Söder praised him. I think he's definitely the best possible choice due to his broad expertise on health issues. Say of him whatever you want, his takes and opinions during the pandemic often proved correct. Many of the backbenchers talking him down from within the party are most likely just jealous that this guy is getting so much attention and a large following these days.

[Pick Up the Phone]

There was a large public demand for Lauterbach;

Sure, it's part of being polarizing that you also have some diehard followers. But it doesn't make this appointment a more reasonable or prudent one. It's not campaign season anymore, and the SPD would be well advised not to give a key office to a controversial self-promoter who is hard to control.

even CDU politicians and Markus Söder praised him.

As a matter of principle, I would be extra careful if someone was praised by Söder. For more than one reason.

I think he's definitely the best possible choice due to his broad expertise on health issues.

Doubt it. He may be the most competent, sure, but that doesn't really matter. A minister doesn't have to be an expert but an able taskmaster.

Say of him whatever you want, his takes and opinions during the pandemic often proved correct.

That's up for debate, I think. But even if he is - there is a major difference between giving the right 'takes' in talk shows and actually implementing effective policies in a system as complex as the German one. I don't consider Lauterbach someone who is willing or able to compromise if necessary.  

Many of the backbenchers talking him down from within the party are most likely just jealous that this guy is getting so much attention and a large following these days.

Don't disagree, but is their jealousy surprising? Lauterbach is obviously someone who is pretty convinced of himself (to put it mildly). And that's usually a reliable indicator for trouble.