🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[buritobr]

Haven't the German Greens moderated so much that they are actually to the right of the SPD in economic policy these days? Then again I guess the SPD has sold out quite a bit too.

The SPD's platform has moved considerably leftwards in recent years on economic issues. They are basically saying, "This is what we would like to do, but the Union is blocking us". Party leadership tries to make a distinction between the SPD's action in the grand coalition and the SPD's platform - the heart and soul of the party.

One party, 2 different people.

The SPD who runs for the elections against the CDU is Superman. The SPD who is a junior partner of the coalition with the CDU is Clark Kent.

[buritobr]

There is a chart of the average of the polls in the last 4 years
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_German_federal_election

What did I observe:

The peak of May 2021 was not the first peak of the Greens. They had already a peak in July 2019 and also a fast decline after that (I don't know why it happened)

The CDU increases (decreases) when the Greens decrease (increase)

The SPD is doing bad, but it is stable at the 15% since mid 2020. The Linke is doing bad, but it is stable at the 7% since mid 2020

The FDP increased a lot in 2021

The AfD was stable since April 2020, but I don't know if they will increase after the knife attack in Wurzburg

[buritobr]

Maybe, the attack in Wurzburg will not increase too much the popularity of the AfD, because those who think "these immigrants are attacking us using knife, we need the AfD" were already voting for the AfD.
What do the germans think?

[buritobr]

Plagiarism is not the biggest crime of the history of the mankind. However, this allegation can hurt her image because since she is a new picture on the politics and many people don't know too much about her.
She is young and she doesn't have experience in the executive branch. She had a image of a wonderful person because she is a mother, a very intelligent girl who studied in the US and in the UK, an athlete, an expert in climate change. When the people see that this person they didn't know very much but they though was wonderful has allegation of plagiarism, they could think that she has more negative facts in her life that can become public.

Consider the example of Joe Biden: a plagiarism scandal hurt him when he was young, but now, it is only a small detail of his long life.
If Annalena Baerbock become the chancelor in the same age Joe Biden became president, she will become the chancelor in 2058. Probably, everybody would have forgotten the plagiarism allegations.

[buritobr]

If Annalena Baerbock becomes the Bundeskanzlerin, she will be the first leader of a G7 country born after the assassination of John Lennon. I remembered this event, because she was born one week after it.

Other events close to Baerbock's birth: Karol Wojtyla becoming Pope John Paul II, beggining of China reforms, Iranian revolution, Margaret Thatcher becoming british PM, FED rising interest rates, Reagan being elected

[buritobr]

There are Allensbach, Kantar (Emnid), Forsa, Forsch’gr. Wahlen, GMS, Infratest dimap, INSA and YouGov polls. Which one is more reliable?

[buritobr]

There are Allensbach, Kantar (Emnid), Forsa, Forsch’gr. Wahlen, GMS, Infratest dimap, INSA and YouGov polls. Which one is more reliable?

Allensbach seems to have an outdated methology, has strange field operation times so that th, ey always seem to publish two weeks later, and has a notable pro-FDP bias

Kantar, FGW, and Infratest dimap seem fine

Forsa is always very bouncy, seems to seek data to fuel narratives, and has an anti-SPD bias despite the founder being an SPD member.

INSA is allegedly closer to the AfD, on the other hand their Bundestag poll numbers seem quite accurate.

I never really heard of GMS outside the wahlrecht.de poll list. And Yougov is a joke.

Yes, usually Kantar shows better numbers for SPD, Grüne and Linke, and Forsa shows better numbers for CDU and FDP https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

[buritobr]

No poll is showing the Linke in 6% anymore. Die Linke has between 7% and 8% now. The danger of not reaching 5% is decreasing.

[buritobr]

Since 1949, has the FDP already won a district? Or all the FDP representatives came from the party list, elected in the proportional election?

[buritobr]

I observed that only the FDP is both pro legalization of cannabis and against speed limits on the highways. The other parties are or pro legalization of cannabis and pro speed limit or against legalization of cannabis and against speed limits.

For me, it looks like a good idea legal cannabis and no speed limits. But there should be a control so that people who smoked weed don't drive 200 kmph.

[buritobr]

Average of most recent Kantar Emnid, Forsa, Infratest Dimap, INSA polls

CDU/CSU: 25.75%
Grüne: 19.75%
SPD: 17.50%
FDP: 12.50%
AfD: 10.50%
Linke: 6.25%

Sonstige: 7.75%

[buritobr]

Do you think a bandwagon effect can take place?

When the Greens had 25% and the SPD had 15% in the polls, a generic center-left vote could choose the Greens considering that they were the most important center-left force in 2021. But now, the Greens and the SPD are tied, and so, this generic center-left voter could go back to the SPD.

[buritobr]

Would the Grüne be polling better if the Spitzenkandidat were Robert Habeck?
It would be a good election for the Greens. They are polling well since the end of 2018
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_German_federal_election
Many people don't want the Volksparteien, but they are looking for someone not as right-wing as the AfD and not as left-wing as the Linke.
After the pandemic, climate change will become the world's most important issue, and the transition to non-CO2 energy sources became a hot topic.
The flood in Germany in July damaged CDU and raised the awarness about problems related to environment.

Annalena Baerbock looked like a strong competitor, but she had some glass ceiling. Couldn't she have imagined that false information in a CV and plagiarism would be perceived during the campaign? Did she think that she could hide these problems forever?

[buritobr]

I am watching the debate now
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BDBITm3eumE

[buritobr]

Same issues of the US 2020 debate: Middle East, pandemic, climate change

[buritobr]

According to the average of the most recent polls, the possible coalitions are:

SPD-CDU/CSU-Grüne (Kenia)
SPD-CDU/CSU-FDP (Germany)
SPD-FDP-Grüne (Traffic lights)
SPD-Grüne-Linke (2red-green)
and, very close, SPD-CDU/CSU (Grand coalition)

Is the traffic lights coalition the outcome that has the biggest probability?
Would the CDU/CSU join a coalition without being the head?

We know that the probability of the 2red-green coalition is low because even some social democrats and greens dislike this coalition. But if the 2red-green really have >50% of the Bundestag, could the SPD use this possibility as a bargain power in order to make the FDP accept the Traffic lights?

If the SPD wins a plurality and the 2red-green have >50% but the Jamaica also have >50%, would the green base accept the Jamaica?

[buritobr]

When a scandal against a candidate is discovered only during the election time, the misconduct of the candidate usually was not so big. If it were, probably it would have been discovered before. Scandals discovered during election time are usually stories that use some true facts in order to try to build a narrative that the candidate had a very damaging misconduct.

[buritobr]

Any chance of an SDP-FDP-Linke coalition? That would be my preference

Any chance of a Clinton's wing of Democratic Party - Libertarian Party - Sanders's wing of Democratic Party coalition in the US? That would be my preference

[buritobr]

I am watching some parts of the junior debate. We can see:

Janine Wissler - Linke
Alexander Dobrindt - CSU
Christian Lindner - FDP
Alice Weidel - AfD

Maybe, only one day difference to the main debate was too few, people might be tired of debates. But no problem, it is possible to watch every time at Youtube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YtZ2FPAo2OU

1 very left-wing candidate, 3 conservatives

Many interruptions

[buritobr]

The most recent Forsa poll had data collected between September 7th and 13th. SPD has 25%.
The most recent GMS poll had data collected between September 8th and 13th. SPD has 25%.
The most recent INSA poll had data collected between September 10th and 13th. SPD has 26%.

The news concerning the money laundry became public on September 10th. So, some data were collected after the news. The SPD is still stable at 25%. Until now, there was no impact.

[buritobr]

Well, according to the last Infratest Dimap:

BUNDESTAGSWAHL | Sonntagsfrage Infratest dimap/ARD
SPD: 26% (+1)
Union: 22% (+2)
GRÜNE: 15% (-1)
AfD: 11% (-1)
FDP: 11% (-2)
LINKE: 6%
FW: 3% (NEU)
Sonstige: 6% (-2)

Since only >5% parties have seats, if the results were these, the share of the seats in the Bundestag would be:

SPD 28.6%
Union 24.2%
Grüne 16.5%
FDP 12.1%
AfD 12.1%
Linke 6.6%

The possible coaltions would be:
Kenya 69.2%
Deutschland (Germany) 64.8%
Ampel (traffic lights) 57.1%
Jamaika 52.7%
Grossekoalition (great) 52.7%
Rot-rot-grün (red-red-green) 51.6%

[buritobr]

The possible coaltions would be:
Kenya 69.2%
Deutschland (Germany) 64.8%
Ampel (traffic lights) 57.1%
Jamaika 52.7%
Grossekoalition (great) 52.7%
Rot-rot-grün (red-red-green) 51.6%

Wouldn't be the greatest outcome tho

There was never a great coalition in Germany led by the social democrats. It happened only in Austria.
Would the CDU/CSU be willing to become junior?

[buritobr]

In early 2021, when the SPD decided that Olaf Scholz would be the Spitzenkandidat, I though it would be another disaster like Steinmeier 2009. I though that people who approve Merkel's administration would vote for the CDU and people who disapprove Merkel's administration would vote someone who was not member of the administration. So, I though that the best choice for the SPD would be someone who was not member of Merkel's administration.

I was wrong. Didn't inderstand very well German politics. Maybe, there are many people who slightly approve Merkel's administration, but want some changes. It would be nice to see a poll relating the partisan vote to the rating of Merkel's administration.

[buritobr]

According to the average of the recent polls, 6 coalitions are possible now
Kenia ~68%
Germany ~63%
Traffic Lights ~58%
Jamaica ~53%
2Red-Green ~52%
Grand Coalition ~51%

Which coalition do you think will run Germany between 2021 and 2025? (not which coalition do you want)
If you bet some money, for which one would you bet?

[buritobr]

So, the concern related to a Jamaica coalition might be an incentive for a generic center-left vote to choose the SPD and not the Greens.