🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[buritobr]

What I observed:

The federal elections in the Bundesrepublik Deutschland took place in:

Years after the Olympics and before the World Cup: 1949, 1953, 1957, 1961, 1965, 1969
Olympics years: 1972, 1976, 1980
Years after the World Cup and before the Olympics: 1983, 1987
World Cup years: 1990, 1994, 1998, 2002
Again, years after the Olympics and before the World Cup: 2005, 2009, 2013, 2017, 2021

Every sequence was broken when there was only a 3 year interval, instead of a 4 year interval. Unlike what happened in the Weimar Republic, there was never a shorter than 3 years interval in the BRD.
The elections take place again in years after the Olympics and before the World Cup, and the recent sequence is already longer than the previous sequences. Do you think the next election take place in 2025?

If Schröder didn't antecipate the election to 2005, there would be campaign during the World Cup in Germany in 2006.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

NoWaBo is stepping down as co-leader of the SPD, says his mission is complete and time for younger people to take over

Survey shows Merz as favored candidate for CDU chair

[FrancoAgo]

I find it astonishing that there are 736 members. That's for sure too much, but I'd trade the political system of Germany or most other European nations any day of the week with our system here.

It seems like a lot but the UK has 650 MPs with a population of about 65 million and Germany has 736 with a population of over 80 million - and Canada has 338 with a population of 38 million - so in terms of MP per capita its not unreasonable

Seems a little too much, either. I think the US House should have about 650 members. 500-550 seems more approriate for Germany and/or UK.

but in the USA there were thousands of state lawmakers

[President Johnson]

NoWaBo is stepping down as co-leader of the SPD, says his mission is complete and time for younger people to take over

Survey shows Merz as favored candidate for CDU chair

Hardly a surprise that he's stepping down, his mission is accomplished. I obviously voted for the duo Scholz/Geywitz in 2019, but I definitely give NoWaBo a lot of credit for the job he was done, especially as a bridge builder within the party. Without this new found unity, the party would never have won the election. NoWaBo also had the big advantage that never intended another and higher role and was free of personal ambitions. He realized that Scholz needed to be chancellor candidate and had the personal greatness to suggest his former rival to run for chancellor.

The big question is now what Saskia Esken does; there are some rumors she'll also step down as party leader be assigned to a role in the cabinet.

Another question is obviously who will take over. Scholz already declined to run for leader again as he wants to focus on his chancellorship. Lars Klingbeil would be excellent, though I see him in the cabinet as well (either Defense or Chief of the Chancellery). I think the party more wants leaders not in the cabinet for the same reasons NoWaBo and Esken were successful now. I could see a duo of Manuela Schwesig as younger woman that just won a landslide reelection at the state level and Stephan Weil as popular and experienced Minister-President in the roles. At least political scientist Albrecht von Lucke has suggested that (and his takes are often pretty good).

[President Johnson]

Saskia Esken said she wants to remain SPD co-leader and not join a Scholz cabinet. Lars Klingbeil is rumored to be interested in the position as well after NoWaBo announced his retirement. Klingbeil is a member of the moderate wing and would diversify the leadership duo here.

I'd strongly back him for party leader and wish we would return to a single person being at helm. However, Esken remaining in her position might be helpful to serve as bridge to the party's left wing. It certainly helped to maintain unity during the campaign and get Olaf Scholz into the chancellery.

[President Johnson]

Annalena Baerbock said coalition talks may last somewhat longer; so there's an outside chance Merkel still becomes the longest serving chancellors. All the talks are conducted very professionally, outside the public spotlight and with no leaks. However, some Greens have indicated some dissatisfaction with SPD and FDP climate policies. That was about to be expected, though it's still somewhat surprising that it's not the FDP causing issues so far.

However, it's very, very unlikely the Trafficlight Coalition isn't formed in the end.

[Middle-aged Europe]

TBF you were likely answering this not based on data at the time - which suggested a Union stranglehold on the electorate challenged only by the Greens - but more on your gut. And I'm not sure if that proves you have more foresight or are just a committed SPD partisan - not a bad thing but just a recognition of  perspectives.

I'll admit having voted on mostly my "gut feeling".
I started on the premise that most Germans were tired of voting for the CDU (which proved to be a correct assumption), while simultaneously being scared of a Green Party, which had been becoming more and more radicalized, and becoming more and more sympathetic to the [censored], FFF, Extinction Rebellion, Jan Böhmermann's brigade and other far-left terror groups (which also proved itself true).
TBH, in the meantime I was genuinely dreading the prospect of the CDU or the Greens remaining or becoming, respectively, the next chancellor party.

LOL @ the idea of the Greens becoming "more and more radicalized" at a time when they had their first ever chairperson duo where both leaders were coming from the party's Realo wing and none from the Leftish wing. Leaders who went out of their way these past three years to design strategies intended to open the party up for new voter groups in the political center, resulting in the party's best Bundestag election result ever (albeit of course weaker one than originally aimed for). A leadership duo who for the past couple of weeks had faced increasing criticism from the media, environmental groups, and their own voters for being too willing to make easy compromises with the FDP (said criticism eventually led to Baerbock's statement mentioned in President Johnson's last post).

Also LOL @ the idea that the Greens have becoming "more and more sympathetic to Extinction Rebellion". I'm aware that Hades - based on his posting history - probably hasn't much personal contact or experience with members of the Green party. Well, I have such regular contact and I have yet to meet a Green who has a distinctly positive opinion on Extinction Rebellion. They probably exist somewhere - most likely in some circles at the party's base, but most members I know roll their eyes at ER.

Finally, as a member of the Green party, I'm personally offended by the libelous claim that my party is "more and more sympathetic to far-left terror groups" and if Hades wants to have any dealings with me in the future I'm expecting a apology from him on the matter.

[MaxQue]

TBF you were likely answering this not based on data at the time - which suggested a Union stranglehold on the electorate challenged only by the Greens - but more on your gut. And I'm not sure if that proves you have more foresight or are just a committed SPD partisan - not a bad thing but just a recognition of  perspectives.

I'll admit having voted on mostly my "gut feeling".
I started on the premise that most Germans were tired of voting for the CDU (which proved to be a correct assumption), while simultaneously being scared of a Green Party, which had been becoming more and more radicalized, and becoming more and more sympathetic to the [censored], FFF, Extinction Rebellion, Jan Böhmermann's brigade and other far-left terror groups (which also proved itself true).
TBH, in the meantime I was genuinely dreading the prospect of the CDU or the Greens remaining or becoming, respectively, the next chancellor party.

LOL @ the idea of the Greens becoming "more and more radicalized" at a time when they had their first ever chairperson duo where both leaders were coming from the party's Realo wing and none from the Leftish wing. Leaders who went out of their way these past three years to design strategies intended to open the party up for new voter groups in the political center, resulting in the party's best Bundestag election result ever (albeit of course weaker one than originally aimed for). A leadership duo who for the past couple of weeks had faced increasing criticism from the media, environmental groups, and their own voters for being too willing to make easy compromises with the FDP (said criticism eventually led to Baerbock's statement mentioned in President Johnson's last post).

Also LOL @ the idea that the Greens have becoming "more and more sympathetic to Extinction Rebellion". I'm aware that Hades - based on his posting history - probably hasn't much personal contact or experience with members of the Green party. Well, I have such regular contact and I have yet to meet a Green who has a distinctly positive opinion on Extinction Rebellion. They probably exist somewhere - most likely in some circles at the party's base, but most members I know roll their eyes at ER.

Finally, as a member of the Green party, I'm personally offended by the libelous claim that my party is "more and more sympathetic to far-left terror groups" and if Hades wants to have any dealings with me in the future I'm expecting a apology from him on the matter.

Lyssa (the Greek Goddess of frenzy and mad rage) would be a more appropriate name than Hades.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

In an unsurprising but nevertheless very smart move, the SPD has nominated now General Secretary Lars Klingbeil and incumbent leader Saskia Esken for the party leadership.

Klingbeil is an excellent choice, as he is relatively moderate but has no real opponents in the party. He was also responsible for managing the SPD's successful election campaign. Klingbeil is relatively young, seems down-to-earth, and is quite charismatic.

Keeping Esken on the ticket is also a great choice because it will symbolize that the influence of the SPD's left-wing will remain strong in the future. She has been a target of ridicule and often unfair criticism and she had a rough start but later, she handled her job perfectly. Also, for some reason, Hades is really, really angry at that woman, which means that she probably does a good job.

[President Johnson]

In an unsurprising but nevertheless very smart move, the SPD has nominated now General Secretary Lars Klingbeil and incumbent leader Saskia Esken for the party leadership.

Klingbeil is an excellent choice, as he is relatively moderate but has no real opponents in the party. He was also responsible for managing the SPD's successful election campaign. Klingbeil is relatively young, seems down-to-earth, and is quite charismatic.

Keeping Esken on the ticket is also a great choice because it will symbolize that the influence of the SPD's left-wing will remain strong in the future. She has been a target of ridicule and often unfair criticism and she had a rough start but later, she handled her job perfectly. Also, for some reason, Hades is really, really angry at that woman, which means that she probably does a good job.

Yeah, Klingbeil is an excellent choice. He's only 43 years, smart and well articulated and a proven winner, who carried his traditionally conservative-leaning district in a landslide. The SPD's victory was almost equally his success than it was Scholz' success. I also endorse reelection of Saskia Esken, who has proven to be a bridgebuilder to the party's left wing and her retaining that office may actually help Chancellor-designate Scholz to sell compromises in a governing coalition.

Remains to be seen who replaces Klingbeil as General Secretary, I just hope it don't be Kevin Kühnert. A woman would make sense, and a group Social Democratic women already called for a female GS.

I actually expected Klingbeil to become Defense Minister, which seems off the table now that the party wants to separate leadership and cabinet posts. I think the SPD can now give the Defense Ministry to the FDP, as Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann is a highly qualified contender. Klingbeil not joining the cabinet and Hubertus Heil most likely retaining his position as Labor Minister would make it possible for another SPD man to be assigned a governing role. Hopefully this finally sets the stage for Karl Lauterbach as Health Minister. I couldn't imagine anyone better suited for that job. I'd really be mad at my party for not picking him.

[urutzizu]

https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/ampel-koalition-gruene-beharren-nicht-mehr-auf-finanzministerium-17628505.html

Important Leak has gotten out. According to FAZ, which is reputable. All still pending but Green negotiators have narrowed down to six ministries they want: External Affairs, agriculture, transportation, environment (surprise, surprise), Family Affairs and the new transformation ministry.

Ergo FDP gets Finance. According to the Article Greens are concerned that if FDP does not get Finance they would be humiliated before their own supporters, which would create pressure for them to leave/disturb the coalition when problems begin to occur.

[President Johnson]

https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/ampel-koalition-gruene-beharren-nicht-mehr-auf-finanzministerium-17628505.html

Important Leak has gotten out. According to FAZ, which is reputable. All still pending but Green negotiators have narrowed down to six ministries they want: External Affairs, agriculture, transportation, environment (surprise, surprise), Family Affairs and the new transformation ministry.

Ergo FDP gets Finance. According to the Article Greens are concerned that if FDP does not get Finance they would be humiliated before their own supporters, which would create pressure for them to leave/disturb the coalition when problems begin to occur.

Not that surpirising at all. Habeck would have been easier for Scholz in that role, though the FDP needs one major ministery to occupy as they're mostly assicatated with economic and fiscal policy. The Economy Ministery is much less powerful (by bet is Volker Wissing gets assigned that role).

Six departments for the Greens seems a bit too much? Usually they should only get one more than the FDP and both of them combined the same number as the SPD. Social Democrats will certainly insist on Labor (and retain Huberus Heil), Health and Interior, perhaps Justice while the FDP also gets Defense.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Regrettably not possible to provide lower level data for Chemnitz: stadtteil figures do exist and could be aggregated, but, alas and unusually, they do not include postal votes. I've also not bothered with thicker boundaries for local government areas as they are mostly very new and very artificial in Saxony and would only confuse matters.

[Alcibiades]

Regrettably not possible to provide lower level data for Chemnitz: stadtteil figures do exist and could be aggregated, but, alas and unusually, they do not include postal votes. I've also not bothered with thicker boundaries for local government areas as they are mostly very new and very artificial in Saxony and would only confuse matters.

Is that small patch of strong CDU support in the northeast of the state a largely Sorbian area?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is that small patch of strong CDU support in the northeast of the state a largely Sorbian area?

That's right, yes.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Is that small patch of strong CDU support in the northeast of the state a largely Sorbian area?

That's right, yes.

Sorbian catholic, to be precise. In 2017 one could still see the effect of catholicism in the munipality of Schirgiswalde in the southern part of the Landkreis Bautzen, which was a Bohemian enclave until 1860 or so.

[President Johnson]

Some updates from the coalition talks: Still going on pretty smoothly without any major leaks coming out. The working groups have finished their work last week and the final disputed issues are now being negotiated between the leadership teams.

Baerbock recently said that talks over climate were exhausting as SPD and FDP didn't want to go as far as the Greens. However, she said promising agreements were found on other issues. It actually surprises me there weren't that much disputes between SPD/Greens and the FDP as latter had the "longest way to go". Or at least they were kept very secret. What's remarkable here is that Christian Lindner today echoed Olaf Scholz by saying a trafficlight coalition needs to start with the ambition to get reelected. It would be awesome for this to become a government that is going to shape and modernize Germany for a longer period of time. I truly think a government with elements of social democracy, environmentalism and liberalism has great potential for good.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I truly think a government with elements of social democracy, environmentalism and liberalism has great potential for good.

I wish you good luck and much fun with Kubicki!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

snip

Is there a pattern to the FDP vote I'm missing, or does it look a bit off because the party doesn't really have deep roots in Saxony and therefore it is a bit off?

[Astatine]

snip

Is there a pattern to the FDP vote I'm missing, or does it look a bit off because the party doesn't really have deep roots in Saxony and therefore it is a bit off?

Usually, the FDP electorate tends to be somewhat more urban (see Dresden as strong municipality). The FDP gains this years were disproportionally high in structurally weaker states (East + Saarland), especially in their rural areas - Looking at the exit polls, FDP gained most voters from CDU (whose electorate tends to skew rural), hence the FDP vote overall became quite equally distributed.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

So, we seem to be closing in on a final coalition agreement, it seems?

[President Johnson]

So, we seem to be closing in on a final coalition agreement, it seems?

Yes, coalition agreement could already be presented tomorrow, though some Greens said it's not certain at this point. There are also cabinet lists floating, though representatives of the three parties said they were fake.

Reports coming out of Berlin indicate that SPD and FDP have finally agreed to an exit of coal energy by 2030, which was a priority for the Greens (and eight years ahead of the Grand Coalition's target).

Scholz, Baerbock/Habeck and Lindner just went to the chancellery together for a meeting with Merkel over the deteriorating situation with the pandemic.

[urutzizu]

Its happening: Today 15:00 (CET) SPD-FDP Greens there is a Press Conference to present the Coalition Agreement. Apparently we will also learn the partisan make-up of the portfolios, but not the Individuals themselves (to be revealed from tomorrow). As good as certain is Lindner gets Finance, Habeck some sort of new economy-climate ministry, and Baerbock External Affairs. A few key areas are unclear such as Health, which is of course very important right now and no one really seems to want (except Lauterbach who is never going to get it)

I am pretty amazed all-in all how smooth these negotiations have gone, despite the significant differences between the parties. There is a very strong, clear, commitment here by all three parties not just to form a stable government but also to create some new majority that lasts longer than just 4 years, and all have undertaken really sincere and major efforts to bridge all differences. All efforts to divide the coalition, especially on the fighting the pandemic, where the coalition was most vulnerable due to the fundamental instincts of the parties being opposite, ultimately failed because course was agreed with significant respect to all parties and everyone stuck to the framework and pushed it through, even against severe backlash (see the Infection control law). It is a huge contrast previous negotiations and the current government.

[President Johnson]

So major update: According to ZEIT, cabinet positions will be allocated as follows:

SPD:
- Chancellorship and Chief of Chancellery
- Interior
- Defense
- Construction & Housing
- Labor & Social Affairs
- Health
- Economic Development

Greens:
- Economy & Climate
- Foreign
- Family Affairs
- Agriculture
- Environment & Consumer Protection

FDP:
- Finance
- Justice
- Traffic
- Education & Science


Names are not yet announced, though some are certain or near certain. Obviously Olaf Scholz will be chancellor and his close confidant Wolfgang Schmidt is the favorite for Chief of Chancellery. Robert Habeck is expected to take over Economy & Climate while Baerbock becomes Foreign Minister. Christian Lindner will certainly end up as Finance Minister.

Some ministries get reorganized with different assignments. That only requires a formal directive of the chancellor and not a new law. Only a few ministeries such as Finance and Foreign are established by the constitution.

Health remains the big question. Michael Theurer of the FDP was floated in recent days, though I never bought these cabinet lists that went around in the first place. I'm not sure it will actually be Karl Lauterbach. I hope he will, and public support for him has become more visible in the last few days. Even #WirwollenKarl (We want Karl) trended on Twitter.