Scott RASMUSSEN: McCaskill +2, Scott +3, Braun +3, McSally +7,

[2016]

This is a 7-Day Tracking Poll which will end Monday Night I believe.

Personally in general I think people have written off McSally too soon. While I don't think she'll win by 7 I still think she has a chance to win.

We'll know pretty early on Tuesday when AZ Polls close and the vote is tabulated if Sinema had any kind of Early Vote lead as most of the Polls are suggesting contracting the Raw Ballot Advantage Republicans seem to enjoy in the State.

[2016]

This is a 7-Day Tracking Poll which will end Monday Night I believe.

Personally in general I think people have written off McSally too soon. While I don't think she'll win by 7 I still think she has a chance to win.

We'll know pretty early on Tuesday when AZ Polls close and the vote is tabulated if Sinema had any kind of Early Vote lead as most of the Polls are suggesting contracting the Raw Ballot Advantage Republicans seem to enjoy in the State.

I believe McSally is up 5. Republicans have to stay home for Democrats to win Arizona, and we're not seeing that in the early voting.

...or it's possible the Republicans have cannibalized their vote early.

There is not much to cannibalize in AZ as 75-80% will be Mail Vote. By 2020 or 2022 it might 100% just like Oregon and Colorado.

While everyone is looking at the Registration Spread between R and D in AZ I think it's more useful to look at the Raw Ballots. GOP currently leads by 116,009. That means if Sinema gets 96% of Democrats, McSally gets 88% of Republicans Sinema would need to win Independents by 67-33 to be AHEAD in the Early Vote and I seriously doubt she has that Spread.
Tomorrow will be the most important Ballot Update. Watch the Raw Ballots: If it's expanding McSally is in good shape; If it gets under 100K Sinema is in better shape.