Aurelio21
Rookie
Posts: 131
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« on: November 02, 2018, 01:54:11 AM » |
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First of all, I do not refute this numbers on themself, even if Mr Rasmussen has a very partisan reputation. Maybe he oversamples / overestimates republican likely voters. Yet looking at the trends is quite interesting.
About the Florida trend: Scott winning by 3 % with Gillum Winning with 6% in the same sample is contradictory. Yet even CNN recently admitted that the support of Mr Scott was underrated by their penultimate poll. The trends D+ in the gov race and R+ in the senate race make this specific poll rather untrustworthy.
Polling Nevada should be taken with a big grain of salt, as usual. Yet it concurs with Mr Ralstons reporting on the ground with confirming the slight D advantage.
Mrs McCaskill may have luck again as her opponent, Mr Hawley, had blatantly lied in his campaign for AG (he heavily implied he would not be immediately interested in running for higher offices). And as "draining the swamp"-candidate he circumvented his staff by heavily relying on external advisers from out-of-state.
Even as Trump candidates are usually immune against facts as being your generic carreer politician while telling that they are "draining the swamp", this scandal seems to resonate and may well put Mrs Caskill over the finish line. Mrs McCaskill now plays the carpetbegger card, and the trend within the polls implies the success of this strategy.
The senate races in Arizona and Indiana seem possible, yet undecideds seem a bit to high.
Generally, the crosstabs are missing. E g non-white voters in Indiana would be interesting to see after Mr Donnelly's gaffe.
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