GA-UGA: Tie
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Author Topic: GA-UGA: Tie  (Read 1922 times)
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
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« on: November 01, 2018, 05:24:38 PM »

Stacey Abrams (D) 47
Brian Kemp (R) 47

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Rookie Yinzer
RFKFan68
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« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2018, 05:27:42 PM »

Hm. Abrams has now inched ahead in two separate polls that previously had her down. Hopefully the sleeping giant of non-midterm voters is what gets her to 50%.
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Xing
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« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2018, 05:28:30 PM »

Dare I say that this race is close?
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2018, 05:31:21 PM »

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KingSweden
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« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2018, 05:33:43 PM »

Dare I say that this race is close?
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ON Progressive
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2018, 05:38:27 PM »


Surprise

Are you also going to tell me this race might be going to a runoff?
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Podgy the Bear
mollybecky
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« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2018, 05:43:40 PM »

This is presently getting considerable coverage on the WSB-TV/radio stations (the largest in the metro Atlanta market).  Both sides think that someone will get to the 50% next Tuesday and there won't be a runoff.  There seems to be good news on both sides (Abrams winning independents by a big margin and Kemp winning college educated women by a significant margin as well).

This is truly going to be a turnout effort--Democrats have done their best, but Georgia is still a tilt R state.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #7 on: November 01, 2018, 05:55:05 PM »
« Edited: November 01, 2018, 05:59:23 PM by libertpaulian »

This is presently getting considerable coverage on the WSB-TV/radio stations (the largest in the metro Atlanta market).  Both sides think that someone will get to the 50% next Tuesday and there won't be a runoff.  There seems to be good news on both sides (Abrams winning independents by a big margin and Kemp winning college educated women by a significant margin as well).

This is truly going to be a turnout effort--Democrats have done their best, but Georgia is still a tilt R state.
Uh, what?!  Isn't that demographic supposed to be pro-Abrams?!  I mean, her message seems to be very appropriate for them.

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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #8 on: November 01, 2018, 06:02:13 PM »

This is presently getting considerable coverage on the WSB-TV/radio stations (the largest in the metro Atlanta market).  Both sides think that someone will get to the 50% next Tuesday and there won't be a runoff.  There seems to be good news on both sides (Abrams winning independents by a big margin and Kemp winning college educated women by a significant margin as well).

This is truly going to be a turnout effort--Democrats have done their best, but Georgia is still a tilt R state.
Uh, what?!  Isn't that demographic supposed to be pro-Abrams?!


Even in 2016, there wasn't that big of a gap based on education in GA. Perhaps the word "white" is also supposed to be there, but even if not, if Kemp is winning two-thirds of white female college grads and, say, 15% of non-white female college grads, that'd mean he's winning anywhere from 47-54% of that demographic (depending on how much education is skewed racially in favor of whites).
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #9 on: November 01, 2018, 06:04:47 PM »

^^^ FWIW, Abrams is winning 27% of the white vote in this poll and 32% of white women. I don't see any breakdowns by education, though.

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https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/new-poll-race-for-ga-governor-as-close-as-ever/864589580



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libertpaulian
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« Reply #10 on: November 01, 2018, 06:17:37 PM »

^^^ FWIW, Abrams is winning 27% of the white vote in this poll and 32% of white women. I don't see any breakdowns by education, though.

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https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/new-poll-race-for-ga-governor-as-close-as-ever/864589580




I don't think she'll bode THAT poorly with white women.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #11 on: November 01, 2018, 06:21:09 PM »

I don't think she'll bode THAT poorly with white women.

32% among white women is a damn good figure (if true) for Georgia - especially when you remember that like half of them live in communities where whites are more Republican than Latinos are Democratic, and another quarter live in communities where whites are as Republican as blacks are Democratic.

For it to be at 27% in this poll, that means Abrams is winning 23% of white men (let's hope so). Those are winning numbers.
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Podgy the Bear
mollybecky
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« Reply #12 on: November 01, 2018, 06:32:14 PM »
« Edited: November 01, 2018, 06:35:54 PM by North Fulton Democrat »

And the 32% white woman vote for Abrams is being pulled up by the more educated voter subsection (perhaps they lean Kemp but by a relatively small margin--it was not noted in the news broadcast).

It looks like she will at least match if not exceed the white vote percentage that Jason Carter received. This is an amazing result and something I didn't expect at the beginning of the campaign.  With a strong independent vote and new voter support, she has a chance to exceed 50% on Tuesday.
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TPIG
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« Reply #13 on: November 01, 2018, 06:32:38 PM »

^^^ FWIW, Abrams is winning 27% of the white vote in this poll and 32% of white women. I don't see any breakdowns by education, though.

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https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/new-poll-race-for-ga-governor-as-close-as-ever/864589580




I don't think she'll bode THAT poorly with white women.


You're obviously not familiar with how racially polarized voting is in Georgia...
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Hammy
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« Reply #14 on: November 01, 2018, 06:49:50 PM »

Still safe R until Abrams can reach 50% (and even then, there's no guarantee those polled will be allowed to vote)
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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« Reply #15 on: November 01, 2018, 06:56:05 PM »

Lean R.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #16 on: November 01, 2018, 07:53:22 PM »

This could end up being a nail-biter.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #17 on: November 01, 2018, 09:39:58 PM »

Georgia polls are so boring. Will it be another tie? Abrams +1? *gasp* Maybe even Kemp +2?!
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #18 on: November 01, 2018, 11:15:23 PM »

It'd be pretty surreal if Abrams hit the 50% and Gillum lost after all this.
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