PEI Provincial election 2019

[DC Al Fine]

Eagerly awaiting a Green win immediately followed by their reneging on their promise of electoral reform.

[DC Al Fine]

How much would the Greens have to win the pop vote in order to gain a majority?

It's hard to model that sort of thing when there is a massive swing, especially in a tiny province like PEI, which is smaller than a typical Florida State House district.

I'd just stick with the usual rule of thumb; 40%=majority.

[DC Al Fine]

Forgot this election is coming up. Should make for some peculiar results.

[DC Al Fine]

Narrative Research has a new poll out

35-32-29

PEI has never had significant 3rd party votes, so who knows what the map would look like if that were the result.

[DC Al Fine]

MQO has another poll out:

40-29-26

Very very interesting.

[DC Al Fine]

Forum: PC 35.4% Greens 34.4% Liberals 25.7% NDP 4.6%

Forum seat projection model is 13 PC 10 Green 3 Liberal

MMP failing 47.1% to 52.9%

While I tend to dismiss their polls in between elections, their track record for last minute polls is pretty good.  They were closest in Alberta election.  Never mind it does seem parties on the right have a tendency to do better than polls suggests so a PC majority would not be a huge shocker.  Its not what I predict, but wouldn't be shocked if it happens.  A Liberal majority however would be a shocker.

Interesting, as the Liberals can't form a government, would Maclauchlan recommend that Peter Bevan-Baker forms a government even if Dennis King won more seats, and vice versa?

No. Popular vote means jack in FPTP.

[DC Al Fine]

I'm not going to do a seat by seat prediction since local factors always play such an outsized role, but here is my overall prediction:

Green: 33%, 9 seats
Tory: 33%, 9 seats
Liberal: 32%, 9 seats
NDP/Indy: 2%, 0 seats

Totally arbitrary, I know.

[DC Al Fine]

When do the polls close ?

7pm Atlantic Time

[DC Al Fine]

Forum: PC 35.4% Greens 34.4% Liberals 25.7% NDP 4.6%

Forum seat projection model is 13 PC 10 Green 3 Liberal

MMP failing 47.1% to 52.9%

While I tend to dismiss their polls in between elections, their track record for last minute polls is pretty good.  They were closest in Alberta election.  Never mind it does seem parties on the right have a tendency to do better than polls suggests so a PC majority would not be a huge shocker.  Its not what I predict, but wouldn't be shocked if it happens.  A Liberal majority however would be a shocker.

Interesting, as the Liberals can't form a government, would Maclauchlan recommend that Peter Bevan-Baker forms a government even if Dennis King won more seats, and vice versa?

No. Popular vote means jack in FPTP.

I'm fully aware of that, I come from the UK after all, but I was referring to which party his caucus would rather work with, if they are in the kingmaker position.

Oh you mean if the Liberals come third?

Examples in the rest of Canada would indicate that the Liberals would prefer the Greens as an anti-Conservative voice, but a Green party forming government is totally unprecedented, and its hard to use national politics as precedent in a place as small and unpolarized as PEI. In short, I have no idea

Also, the likelihood of coalitions and pseudo-coalitions (like in BC and New Brunswick) seems to be massively over estimated by journalists and political junkies. If we get a minority government, I would still expect that the most likely outcome would be the government securing support for its agenda on a case by case basis and an election within two years.

[DC Al Fine]

Anyone here think a PC majority is possible?  While skeptical, Forum showed them ahead and they were closest to federal results.  Also PEI Tories are very much your traditional Red Tories so its not uncommon for them to do poorly in between elections due to confusion with federal party which is a bit too right wing for PEI, but then as focus turns to province see their numbers go up.

They did outperform the polls in 11 and 15, so I wouldn't put it out of the realm of possibility, especially with this three way race.

[DC Al Fine]

What sites are you guys using for results?

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/pei/2019/results/

[DC Al Fine]

What sites are you guys using for results?

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/pei/2019/results/

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/prince-edward-island/cbc-pei-election-watch-live-1.5107105

I thought the polls only closed now.

They closed 7 Atlantic, not 7 Eastern.

[DC Al Fine]

While it is possible you will see a supply and confidence between Liberals and Greens, I believe it is very unlikely.  Unlike in other provinces, the ideological differences between parties are quite small with all three parties being broadly centrists.  Liberals playing second fiddle just further marginalizes them reducing the chance they ever return to power while Greens would be best to use their time in opposition to build up their profile and show they have a team ready to govern.  The PCs in contrast with other provinces are very much Red Tories so on a lot of issues they can find common ground with Liberals and NDP which you wouldn't in other provinces.

Agreed - you see that with the Atlantic provinces in general. Their Tory governments tend to be pretty moderate (even to the left of some Prairie NDP governments!), so the ideological gulf that you see federally or in Ontario isn't present. The Liberals & NDP will likely do exactly as you say, for exactly the reasons you say it.

Is the ideological moderation of the Tories just because of the Maritimes being more left-wing than the nation as a whole?

Disting Flyer is correct, but I wanted to add one thing:

I would hesitate to call most of the Maritimes 'left wing' in the traditional sense of the term. The Maritimes are poor, but they aren't especially left either economically or socially. Movement conservatism never really caught on here, but neither has overt progressivism for the most part. Our politics are still kind of stuck in the 1970's that way.

[DC Al Fine]

Now I really hope PBB goes for the Premiership just to give the people who don't understand the Westminster system another data point proving them wrong.

I doubt he pulls it off. The Liberals would be playing with fire to become a junior coalition partner so I suspect they won't bite.