PEI Provincial election 2019

[mileslunn]

Prince Edward Island has their election scheduled for next year on October 7th.  Since that is only 14 days before the federal election it is possible they move it up to the spring of 2019 or back to 2020.  At this point polls suggest a three way face.  Liberals have been in power for 3 terms so the fatigue and desire for change will make getting re-elected a challenge but not impossible.  PEI has a general trend of 3 Liberal terms and 3 PC terms so history is on the side of the PCs, but so far they've been struggling and not connecting well.  Off course that could change during the course of the campaign.  Green Party is very popular and leading in some polls so will be interesting if those numbers hold up or not.  Also PEI having a minority government like New Brunswick and BC is a very real possibility too.

[mileslunn]

MQO research and Mainstreet research both have polls out here.  Looks like a tight three way race so probably a minority if an election were held today.  Interesting to see if this holds, but definitely anyone of the three parties has a shot as support tends to be reasonably evenly distributed across the island so a slight uptick for any of the three could yield a majority.

MQO

Green 32%
Liberal 31%
PC 30%
NDP 7%

Mainstreet

Liberal 33.4%
Green 29.7%
PC 28.3%
NDP 6.7%

MQO also has federal numbers and while Liberals still well ahead, Green surge provincially is somewhat spilling over federally.  Tories down slightly, although I think Green and NDP support will be key as they will need strong splits to win any seats on the island.

Liberal 44%
Conservative 30%
Green 14%
NDP 11%

[mileslunn]

Looks to be an exciting race. I should warn all of you, despite my D-PE avatar, I know very little about PEI politics (haven’t even been there).

That assumes numbers stay the same, my thoughts on the three parties are as follows:


Liberals: They've been in power since 2007 so becoming a bit stale and strong desire for change, nonetheless haven't had any major scandals or radically unpopular policies so if they can convince the public the other two are too risky, could still win a majority.  Also one hidden advantage is they have the majority of incumbent MLAs so that might give them a small advantage.  Still when PEI decides to change governments, they usually swing quite hard so a near wipe out is just as easily possible.  With support being fairly evenly distributed, or at least more so than other provinces, it wouldn't take that big an uptick to get into majority territory and likewise only a small drop to lose outright.


PCs: Have an uninspiring leader and little media attention, but if they perform well on the campaign trail could easily get a majority.  In the last two elections, final results showed the PCs getting 10-15% higher than what they had going in.  Since they are fairly centrist unlike their federal counterparts, could be some confusion so many Red Tories who find the federal Tories too right wing are parking their votes elsewhere, but will move over to the PCs once they realize they are like the Clark/Stanfield PCs, not the Harper/Scheer Tories.  At the same time if it becomes a change election and the Greens are seen as the better party to achieve this, might get marginalized thus struggling to hold what they have. 

Green Party:  Most popular leader and that bodes well as usually when leader's popularity is above party, their numbers tend to rise.  Main problem is weak organization and may have a tougher time attracting cabinet material as candidates, so when they come under greater scrutiny, numbers could easily fall back.


Another possibility is if a minority you might like BC and New Brunswick see some interesting drama.  While one might assume Greens would favour Liberals over PCs, I am not so sure.  PCs and Liberals unlike federally are both centrists so differences ideologically are small.  Liberals refusal to implement PR might mean Greens will support PCs if they promise to implement PR even if Liberals win a plurality of seats.  By the same token, PCs promise to support Ontario, New Brunswick, Saskatchewan and likely soon Alberta in challenging the feds on the carbon tax so that might make a PC-Green alliance difficult.  Also considering how rural PEI is compared to other provinces, the carbon tax might hurt the Greens whereas in more urban provinces it would work in their favour.

[mileslunn]

Two polls out showing tight race between Greens and Liberals, while PCs in third but still within striking distance

Mainstreet

Liberals 35.2%
Greens 30.8%
PCs 29.6%
NDP 2.7%

MQO research

Greens 34%
Liberals 33%
PCs 28%
NDP 2%

[mileslunn]

Most seats Greens have ever won in any province is 3 (currently hold that in British Columbia and New Brunswick).  So if Greens win in PEI, it will be first Green government in Canada and I believe second globally.  They've been junior partners in many countries but I believe the German state of Baden-Wurttemberg is the only one they were actually the senior partner.

[mileslunn]

How much would the Greens have to win the pop vote in order to gain a majority?

Tough to say as uniform swings only work when small shifts, when massive shifts you cannot really apply them.  In the two ridings they already hold they don't have a much room for growth as say the one's they did poorly.  Perhaps one could look at demographics but even then tough to say.  That being said PEI is known for fairly uniform distribution more so than other provinces so pretty much anytime any party has a 5 point lead or more it will result in a majority but in the past its always been a strict two way race so no historical precedent.

[mileslunn]

I think most likely outcome is Green win, question is will it be a majority or is their vote inefficient due to huge margins in Charlottetown so only minority.  Also the death of one candidate might create some sympathy votes too.  The PCs will probably form official opposition although with the recent history of polls generally underestimating parties on the right, I would not be shocked if PCs do win.  Not the favourites, but I think a PC win is more likely than a Liberal win.  While anything is possible, I think the Liberals are probably in the worst shape of the three main parties.

[mileslunn]

Forum: PC 35.4% Greens 34.4% Liberals 25.7% NDP 4.6%

Forum seat projection model is 13 PC 10 Green 3 Liberal

MMP failing 47.1% to 52.9%

While I tend to dismiss their polls in between elections, their track record for last minute polls is pretty good.  They were closest in Alberta election.  Never mind it does seem parties on the right have a tendency to do better than polls suggests so a PC majority would not be a huge shocker.  Its not what I predict, but wouldn't be shocked if it happens.  A Liberal majority however would be a shocker.

[mileslunn]

Anyone here think a PC majority is possible?  While skeptical, Forum showed them ahead and they were closest to federal results.  Also PEI Tories are very much your traditional Red Tories so its not uncommon for them to do poorly in between elections due to confusion with federal party which is a bit too right wing for PEI, but then as focus turns to province see their numbers go up.

[mileslunn]

Six polls in (seven referendum) now. Early thoughts:



Referendum: 'No' leads in five of seven polls, including the Tory & Liberal-leaning seats, and mostly by good margins too. I'm prepared to say that my prediction of a 'No' victory is correct, and maybe by a bigger margin than I expected.

Not surprised, it seems much like in BC and past referendums the undecided breaks for the status quo.

[mileslunn]

I think it is pretty much a foregone conclusion the PCs will win the popular vote, but who will win most seats still unknown and a minority looks more likely than a majority.  At this point PC majority only one plausible but not likely.  Referendum has tightened as Charlottetown results came in so looks like the urban centres support MMP but rural areas against.

[mileslunn]

CBC just called it a PC minority.  While it's possible Liberals could prop up the Greens, my guess is unlike BC, the PCs are Red Tories here so it will be an issue by issue and Dennis King will be next premier.  Forum once again was closest and the pattern of underestimating conservative parties continues.

[mileslunn]

While it is possible you will see a supply and confidence between Liberals and Greens, I believe it is very unlikely.  Unlike in other provinces, the ideological differences between parties are quite small with all three parties being broadly centrists.  Liberals playing second fiddle just further marginalizes them reducing the chance they ever return to power while Greens would be best to use their time in opposition to build up their profile and show they have a team ready to govern.  The PCs in contrast with other provinces are very much Red Tories so on a lot of issues they can find common ground with Liberals and NDP which you wouldn't in other provinces.

[mileslunn]

Part of the reason there isn't the ideological gulf is Atlantic provinces are more monolithic than other provinces so when you have greater variance within a province in economy, incomes, industries etc., you tend to get greater polarization and also pushback by those who don't like the other side while when less differences you don't get the same polarization.  Besides there was a time when PCs in other provinces were like they are now in Atlantic Canada, see Bill Davis, Duff Roblin of Manitoba, Peter Lougheed while federally Joe Clark and Robert Stanfield.  Its more they have swung rightward in other provinces but haven't in Atlantic Canada.