PEI Provincial election 2019

[beesley]

Anyone got a shapefile I could use to make a projection? Thanks

[beesley]

Narrative Research has a new poll out

35-32-29

PEI has never had significant 3rd party votes, so who knows what the map would look like if that were the result.

It's a tough one. The apparent consensus is that the Liberals would win a plurality in the districts that make up Egmont, the PCs in Cardigan, and the Greens in Charlottetown and Malpeque (the latter containing Bevan-Baker's seat,) but I don't know what to expect.

[beesley]

Anyone got a shapefile I could use to make a projection? Thanks

I haven't found a Shapefile. I have also emailed the Electoral Commission to request one, but not received a response. Feel free, however, to use the base map on the first page, if you wish. You'll have to edit it by hand, but it might be better than nothing.

Thanks (both for making this and for sharing it!)

[beesley]

Very tragic news.

The law requires that the election in Charlottetown-Hillsborough Park will be postponed, similar to what happened in Thirsk and Malton in 2010.

[beesley]

My prediction based on recent polling.

1   Souris-Elmira   PC Hold 2   Georgetown-Pownal   PC Hold 3   Montague-Kilmuir   Liberal Hold (closest seat of the night) 4   Belfast-Murray River   PC Hold 5   Mermaid-Stratford   PC Gain from Liberal 6   Stratford-Keppoch   PC Hold 7   Morell-Donagh   PC Hold 8   Stanhope-Marshfield   Liberal Hold 9   Charlottetown-Hillsborough Park   Green Gain from Liberal 10   Charlottetown-Winsloe   Green Gain from Liberal 11   Charlottetown-Belvedere   Green Hold/Gain from Liberal 12   Charlottetown-Victoria   Green Gain from Liberal 13   Charlottetown-Brighton   Green Gain from Liberal 14   Charlottetown-West Royalty   Green Gain from Liberal 15   Brackley-Hunter River    Green Gain from Liberal 16   Cornwall-Meadowbank   Green Gain from Liberal 17   New Haven-Rocky Point   Green Hold 18   Rustico-Emerald   Green Gain from PC 19   Borden-Kinkora   Green Gain from PC 20   Kensington-Malpeque   PC Hold 21   Summerside-Wilmot   PC Hold 22   Summerside-South Drive   Green Gain from Liberal 23   Tyne Valley-Sherbrooke   Green Gain from Liberal 24   Evangeline-Miscouche   Liberal Hold 25   O'Leary-Inverness   Liberal Hold 26   Alberton-Bloomfield   Liberal Hold 27   Tignish-Palmer Road   Liberal Hold

Green 13
PC 8
Liberal 6

[beesley]

Forum: PC 35.4% Greens 34.4% Liberals 25.7% NDP 4.6%

Forum seat projection model is 13 PC 10 Green 3 Liberal

MMP failing 47.1% to 52.9%

While I tend to dismiss their polls in between elections, their track record for last minute polls is pretty good.  They were closest in Alberta election.  Never mind it does seem parties on the right have a tendency to do better than polls suggests so a PC majority would not be a huge shocker.  Its not what I predict, but wouldn't be shocked if it happens.  A Liberal majority however would be a shocker.

Interesting, as the Liberals can't form a government, would Maclauchlan recommend that Peter Bevan-Baker forms a government even if Dennis King won more seats, and vice versa?

[beesley]

Forum: PC 35.4% Greens 34.4% Liberals 25.7% NDP 4.6%

Forum seat projection model is 13 PC 10 Green 3 Liberal

MMP failing 47.1% to 52.9%

While I tend to dismiss their polls in between elections, their track record for last minute polls is pretty good.  They were closest in Alberta election.  Never mind it does seem parties on the right have a tendency to do better than polls suggests so a PC majority would not be a huge shocker.  Its not what I predict, but wouldn't be shocked if it happens.  A Liberal majority however would be a shocker.

Interesting, as the Liberals can't form a government, would Maclauchlan recommend that Peter Bevan-Baker forms a government even if Dennis King won more seats, and vice versa?

No. Popular vote means jack in FPTP.

I'm fully aware of that, I come from the UK after all, but I was referring to which party his caucus would rather work with, if they are in the kingmaker position.

[beesley]

Final prediction:

1   Souris-Elmira   PC Hold 2   Georgetown-Pownal   PC Hold 3   Montague-Kilmuir   PC Gain from Liberal 4   Belfast-Murray River   PC Hold 5   Mermaid-Stratford   PC Gain from Liberal 6   Stratford-Keppoch   PC Hold 7   Morell-Donagh   PC Hold 8   Stanhope-Marshfield   Liberal Hold 9   Charlottetown-Hillsborough Park   Green Gain from Liberal 10   Charlottetown-Winsloe   Green Gain from Liberal 11   Charlottetown-Belvedere   Green Hold/Gain from Liberal 12   Charlottetown-Victoria   Green Gain from Liberal 13   Charlottetown-Brighton   Green Gain from Liberal 14   Charlottetown-West Royalty   Green Gain from Liberal 15   Brackley-Hunter River    Green Gain from Liberal 16   Cornwall-Meadowbank   Green Gain from Liberal 17   New Haven-Rocky Point   Green Hold 18   Rustico-Emerald    PC Hold 19   Borden-Kinkora   Green Gain from PC 20   Kensington-Malpeque   PC Hold 21   Summerside-Wilmot   PC Hold 22   Summerside-South Drive   Green Gain from Liberal 23   Tyne Valley-Sherbrooke   Green Gain from Liberal 24   Evangeline-Miscouche   Liberal Hold 25   O'Leary-Inverness   Liberal Hold 26   Alberton-Bloomfield   Liberal Hold 27   Tignish-Palmer Road   Liberal Hold

Green 12
PC 10
Liberal 5

[beesley]

Forum: PC 35.4% Greens 34.4% Liberals 25.7% NDP 4.6%

Forum seat projection model is 13 PC 10 Green 3 Liberal

MMP failing 47.1% to 52.9%

While I tend to dismiss their polls in between elections, their track record for last minute polls is pretty good.  They were closest in Alberta election.  Never mind it does seem parties on the right have a tendency to do better than polls suggests so a PC majority would not be a huge shocker.  Its not what I predict, but wouldn't be shocked if it happens.  A Liberal majority however would be a shocker.

Interesting, as the Liberals can't form a government, would Maclauchlan recommend that Peter Bevan-Baker forms a government even if Dennis King won more seats, and vice versa?

No. Popular vote means jack in FPTP.

I'm fully aware of that, I come from the UK after all, but I was referring to which party his caucus would rather work with, if they are in the kingmaker position.

Oh you mean if the Liberals come third?

Examples in the rest of Canada would indicate that the Liberals would prefer the Greens as an anti-Conservative voice, but a Green party forming government is totally unprecedented, and its hard to use national politics as precedent in a place as small and unpolarized as PEI. In short, I have no idea

Also, the likelihood of coalitions and pseudo-coalitions (like in BC and New Brunswick) seems to be massively over estimated by journalists and political junkies. If we get a minority government, I would still expect that the most likely outcome would be the government securing support for its agenda on a case by case basis and an election within two years.

You got it! The Liberals coming third seems to be quite likely. I wonder if the fact that the PEI Liberals are affiliated with the federal Grits will affect anything. As I'm not Canadian but happen to know New Brunswick well, a confidence/pseudo-coalition government perhaps seems more real.

[beesley]

The PEI campaign was how I wish political campaigns could be run. Positive and collegial, and a genuine willingness to talk about so many different issues because they mattered to Islanders.