PEI Provincial election 2019

[brucejoel99]

Here's my overall final prediction: a Green majority government with the PC's retaining its official opposition status (based on precedent).

Greens: 36.4% - 16 (5, 8, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23)
PC's: 31.0% - 5 (1, 2, 4, 6, 7)
Liberals: 28.5% - 5 (3, 24, 25, 26, 27)

Re: the referendum, a narrow majority of the province votes to pass, but it fails to be approved by at least 60% of the districts.

Bonus: District 9 goes Green at the by-election, giving the Greens a total of 17 seats as well as a sweep of Charlottetown.

[brucejoel99]

Unless there's a future coalition or confidence-&-supply agreement, the big blue wave has claimed another victim. Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, Alberta, & now PEI... & with Newfoundland perhaps joining that list next month too.

The important question, however, is how long the PC's can last. I could definitely see a Premier Bevan-Baker happening fairly quickly. In all likelihood, the PC's will be asked to form a government. They must call the House together within 6 months, & that's when things will get funky. It looks like they'll just try to run a minority & get support where they can on a case-by-case basis, but if the Greens & the Liberals can indeed form a workable coalition or arrangement, then they can defeat the PC government at that point on a confidence motion, at which point, by convention, Bevan-Baker (as Leader of the Opposition) would be asked to form a government.

In other news:
MMP referendum officially defeated: the "No" side, in addition to winning province-wide with 51.1% of the popular vote, has officially won 12/27 ridings, one more than the threshold (11) needed to defeat the question according to the Referendum Act. Ironic that the "Yes" side has won a majority of ridings in the referendum & yet has lost the province-wide popular vote.

Also, funnily enough: there are now more Green seats in PEI than in the rest of Canada combined.