PEI Provincial election 2019

[mileslunn]

How much would the Greens have to win the pop vote in order to gain a majority?

Tough to say as uniform swings only work when small shifts, when massive shifts you cannot really apply them.  In the two ridings they already hold they don't have a much room for growth as say the one's they did poorly.  Perhaps one could look at demographics but even then tough to say.  That being said PEI is known for fairly uniform distribution more so than other provinces so pretty much anytime any party has a 5 point lead or more it will result in a majority but in the past its always been a strict two way race so no historical precedent.

[Lachi]

From Feb:
https://cra.ca/pei-greens-show-lead-over-governing-liberals-as-provincial-election-looms/

I reckon the greens would come close to a majority on this kind of PV lead

[DC Al Fine]

How much would the Greens have to win the pop vote in order to gain a majority?

It's hard to model that sort of thing when there is a massive swing, especially in a tiny province like PEI, which is smaller than a typical Florida State House district.

I'd just stick with the usual rule of thumb; 40%=majority.

[Hatman 🍁]

Who knows, it's uncharted territory. 40% could get them anywhere from only a few seats in Charlottetown, to almost every seat on the island.

[VPH]

P.E.I. District 20 race could see Matthew MacKay against Matthew MacKay
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/prince-edward-island/mackay-mackay-district20-1.5071171

"Matthew J. has picked up what he thought was his mail at the post office many times, he went home and opened it up. It wasn't his, it belonged to the PC MLA, he said.
'So, I'd call Matthew and say, 'look I opened your mail.' It got to the point where I kind of trained myself not to do that.'"

This is the most stereotypically PEI story ever...

[Lachi]

The election has been called for April 23

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/prince-edward-island/pei-election-called-april-1.5071993

[Krago]

PEI Election Begins with Greens in the Lead

https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/pei-election-begins-with-greens-in-the-lead/

Among decided and leaning voters,
the Greens led by Peter Bevan-Baker have 35.9% (+5.1% since January),
while the governing Liberals led by Wade MacLauchlan have 31.6% support (-4.3%).
The Progressive Conservatives with new leader Dennis King remain in third with 27.5% (-2.1%).
The NDP with Joe Byrne at the helm have 3.7% (-1%).

[DC Al Fine]

Forgot this election is coming up. Should make for some peculiar results.

[Lachi]

Leantossup.ca currently has the greens on 15 seats with the libs and tories on 6 each, giving the greens a 67.7% chance of winning an absolute majority (you need 14 seats for one)

[Harlow]

Leantossup.ca currently has the greens on 15 seats with the libs and tories on 6 each, giving the greens a 67.7% chance of winning an absolute majority (you need 14 seats for one)

Wow, great website, thanks for pointing it out.

I'm frankly surprised we haven't had any polling since the writ dropped. Maybe everyone's just focused on Alberta.

[rob in cal]

  If the Greens won, would they try to put through proportional representation for future PEI elections?

[MaxQue]

  If the Greens won, would they try to put through proportional representation for future PEI elections?

There is already a referendum on that on the same day as the election.

[beesley]

Anyone got a shapefile I could use to make a projection? Thanks

[DC Al Fine]

Narrative Research has a new poll out

35-32-29

PEI has never had significant 3rd party votes, so who knows what the map would look like if that were the result.

[beesley]

Narrative Research has a new poll out

35-32-29

PEI has never had significant 3rd party votes, so who knows what the map would look like if that were the result.

It's a tough one. The apparent consensus is that the Liberals would win a plurality in the districts that make up Egmont, the PCs in Cardigan, and the Greens in Charlottetown and Malpeque (the latter containing Bevan-Baker's seat,) but I don't know what to expect.

[Krago]

Here's a quick-and-dirty projection based on that poll - Green 13, PC 9, Lib 5

ED	Electoral District	2015	2019
01	Souris - Elmira	PC	PC
02	Georgetown - Pownal	PC	PC
03	Montague - Kilmuir	Liberal	Green
04	Belfast - Murray River	PC	PC
05	Mermaid - Stratford	PC	PC
06	Stratford - Keppoch	PC	PC
07	Morell - Donagh	PC	PC
08	Stanhope - Marshfield	Liberal	Liberal
09	Charlottetown - Hillsborough Park	Liberal	Green
10	Charlottetown - Winsloe	Liberal	Green
11	Charlottetown - Belvedere	Liberal	Green
12	Charlottetown - Victoria Park	Liberal	Green
13	Charlottetown - Brighton	Liberal	Green
14	Charlottetown - West Royalty	Liberal	Green
15	Brackley - Hunter River	Liberal	Green
16	Cornwall - Meadowbank	Liberal	Green
17	New Haven - Rocky Point	Green	Green
18	Rustico - Emerald	PC	PC
19	Borden - Kinkora	PC	Green
20	Kensington - Malpeque	PC	PC
21	Summerside - Wilmot	PC	PC
22	Summerside - South Drive	Liberal	Green
23	Tyne Valley - Sherbrooke	Liberal	Green
24	Evangeline - Miscouche	Liberal	Liberal
25	O'Leary - Inverness	Liberal	Liberal
26	Alberton - Bloomfield	Liberal	Liberal
27	Tignish - Palmer Road	Liberal	Liberal

[DC Al Fine]

MQO has another poll out:

40-29-26

Very very interesting.

[Krago]

MQO has another poll out:

40-29-26

Very very interesting.

Green 19, PC 5, Lib 2

It is completely undemocratic for one party to be given 100% of the power with 40% of the vote.  I am sure 8 Green members would disclaim their seats to allow Liberals and PCs to run in the ensuing by-elections.

[Lord Halifax]

MQO has another poll out:

40-29-26

Very very interesting.

Green 19, PC 5, Lib 2

It is completely undemocratic for one party to be given 100% of the power with 40% of the vote.  I am sure 8 Green members would disclaim their seats to allow Liberals and PCs to run in the ensuing by-elections.

It's FPTP, and of course they wouldn't.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm sure there will be a large correlation between Green vote and the vote in favour of PR from the recent referendum. Basically, the closer the riding is to Charlotteotown, the more likely the Greens will win.

[RogueBeaver]

Mainstreet has 35/29/27.

[Smid]

Anyone got a shapefile I could use to make a projection? Thanks

I haven't found a Shapefile. I have also emailed the Electoral Commission to request one, but not received a response. Feel free, however, to use the base map on the first page, if you wish. You'll have to edit it by hand, but it might be better than nothing.

[beesley]

Anyone got a shapefile I could use to make a projection? Thanks

I haven't found a Shapefile. I have also emailed the Electoral Commission to request one, but not received a response. Feel free, however, to use the base map on the first page, if you wish. You'll have to edit it by hand, but it might be better than nothing.

Thanks (both for making this and for sharing it!)

[Hatman 🍁]

All campaigns have been suspended. Apparently a Green Party candidate and his child were killed in an accident of some sort. That's the rumour, anyway.

ETA: Apparently a capsized canoe.

[Hatman 🍁]

CBC is now reporting it was Josh Underhay, the candidate in Charlottetown-Hillsborough Park