Canadian Election 2019

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

The NDP is a total disaster his year. I wonder if Charlie Angus would have done better. Less than a decade ago, people were saying the Liberals should disband and merge with the NDP.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Does this all get forgotten 3-4 months from now like Indiagate?

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Nanos is out today.  Interesting Tories and Liberals tied in Atlantic Canada.  While skeptical whether this is true or not, if true could be a huge problem for the Liberals.  The good news is also tied in BC and Ontario while Tories at 64% in Prairies so a lot of wasted votes there while Liberals still well in front in Quebec.

Conservatives 36%
Liberals 32.9%
NDP 17.9%
Greens 8.3
BQ 3.6
PPC 0.5%

PPC pretty much irrelevant, but I think most on the right are driven more by hatred of Trudeau than like of either Scheer or Bernier so not surprised they are swinging behind whom has the better chance of defeating Trudeau.

Nanos has a history of having pro Liberal numbers, which means it could be even worse for the Liberals.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Alex Nuttall not seeking reelection.

11th Conservative M.P to not seek reelection (not including those who already resigned and didn't serve out the full term they were elected to.) The wheels are falling off the Conservative bus. Scheer has a nice smile though.

He is my MP lol.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

I don't think Desnethe is a particularly difficult hold for the NDP. The Conservatives are non-existent in First Nations communities in the riding, they only did really well in the white, rural parts of the riding, so they have a hard ceiling in terms of how well they can, as the riding itself is over 70% First Nations.

I don't particularly feel that Trudeau is well-liked among the First Nation communities as he might've once been, so unless turnout dips to 50% like it did in 2011, the Conservatives don't stand much of a fighting chance in a riding that is so demographically tilted against them.

Depends on turnout in Desnethe-misinippi-Churchill River as while few aboriginals will vote Tory turnout is often much lower than whites so high turnout favours NDP low turnout favours Tories.  Also median age amongst aboriginals is much younger than whites so while still majority aboriginal its probably not 70% amongst eligible voter as much higher percentage of aboriginals under 18 than whites.

Natives in Canada have soaring birth rates, and are undergoing a baby boom right now. MB and SK are around 15-20% native, and that will get much higher in the future.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

What are the percentage of odds that Trudeau wins reelection as Canadian PM this fall ?

If you mean remains PM, I would say quite high, if you mean greatest number of seats, not so great, but polls suggest things are levelling off and Liberals rebounding in Ontario, but not so much elsewhere.  Lets remember Greens and NDP are far closer to Liberals than Tories so as long as those three combined get 170 seats, he will remain PM even if Tories win a plurality of seats.  For Tories they have to get a majority for Scheer to become PM or at least Tories + PPC (who are unlikely to win any seats) get a majority.  I think if Doug Ford wasn't messing up so badly in Ontario, Tories would have a decent shot at a majority, but Doug Ford is really hurting the Tories in Ontario and being the largest province that is a bit of a problem.

Would Bernier lose his own seat? I don't know about that, he is a institution in the Beauce and they love him.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

In Regina-Lewvan, NDP is planning to nominate Jigar Patel, a local grocery store owner. Probably paves the way for a Liberal surge in the riding, they have a good candidate in Winter Fedyk, a prominent public servant in the city.

I'd be surprised.  The Liberals haven't had deep roots in Saskatchewan since at least 'Trudeaumania' in 1968.  Even when they won 5 seats in 1993 it was mostly due to the split on the right and the decline of the NDP in Saskatchewan, even as the NDP held 5 of their ten seats there in that election.

The Liberals were only behind the Tories and the NDP by 8% in 2015. With a weak NDP candidate, the Liberals could pick up a good chunk of the folks who voted for the NDP in the past.

As somebody who lives in SK and is an NDP supporter, I can't see Patel doing nearly as well as Weir did in 2015, and even the NDP riding association president basically said that she couldn't see the NDP keeping the seat. In Regina-Lewvan, I anticipate a lot of NDP -> Liberal swing voters this year, as the NDP has basically given up on the seat itself.

Though the "local factor" of Scheer's leadership could just as well boost the Cons, instead.

I wonder if Ralph Goodale can hold on Regina.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

http://338canada.com/map.htm

Canada has our own Nate Silver by name of Eric Grenier.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

I wonder if Scheer would get knifed as party leader after one try like what happened to poor Mulclair.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

I wonder how Vancouver and Montreal are looking now.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

What do you think is causing this weird sudden Conservative surge the last week or so? It seemed like the Liberals were slowly gaining for the last 4-5 weeks or so, as the SNC Lavalin scandal faded from memory. Is it a polling error due to people being away on vacation?

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

The English debate will be at 7 pm on Monday, the exact same time that the Leafs will be playing. I am so annoyed. I will probably watch the Leafs game live, and watch the debate tomorrow on YouTube.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

https://twitter.com/BarackObama/status/1184528998669389824

Neo Liberal shill!