Canadian Election 2019

[LabourJersey]

What factors make a riding competitive between just the Tories and the NDP, as opposed to the Liberals? Is there some demographic element, or is it historic?

[LabourJersey]

What are the odds that Trudeau wins reelection despite these scandals & controversies ?

Retaining his majority will be tough but not impossible as I've seen leaders further back in the polls stage comebacks.  Christy Clark going into 2013, Greg Selinger going into 2011, Dalton McGuinty going into 2011, Jean Charest going into 2007, and Brian Mulroney going into 1988 were all further back so it is doable.  Holding his majority will be a challenge, but minority still possible.  If Tories fall short of a majority he probably remains PM as I almost certain NDP and Greens will back Liberals over Tories.  If BQ holds the balance of power then things could get interesting, but probably another election within a year.  A Tory majority looked far fetched six months ago while now much more realistic, but again a lot will depend on how Scheer performs on the campaign trail.

How long could an arrangement like a minority Trudeau gov't last, realistically? I'm guessing nothing more than a couple years

[LabourJersey]

Big question is whether Trudeau (if he survives this strong challenge) leaves office in 2023 after 2 terms as Canadian PM ?

That's gonna depend a lot on the political context of that election and Trudeau's own popularity. I'd be really surprised if he makes it to early 2023, though.

[LabourJersey]

You guys are talking about the Fords like they're the Corleones of Toronto

[LabourJersey]

Rob Ford's widow is running for the People's Party in Etobicoke North

Further proof that the Fords only care about their name and actually have little regard for the OPCs/CPC. But Kirsty Duncan should still be re-elected.

Its not quite as simple as that...Renata Ford is "one Ford" - but she seems to be on the outs with the rest of the Ford family since she is suing Doug Ford for stealing money from her. I suspect that all the rest of "the Fords" will pull out all stops to ensure she is crushed like a bug

Forgot about that, thanks.

And also, she's "not blood".

Though I can definitely see a lot of the social-media core of Ford Nation banging the drum for PPC in general, Renata or no Renata--and for all I know, they motivated her to run..

I'm guessing all this Ford family drama is not helping the Tories in Ontario-- would I be right?

[LabourJersey]

When's the writ of election dropping anyway? Assuming the election is late October I would've thought the vote would be officially announced by now

[LabourJersey]

Liberals and Green tied in Central Nova, however 'Seat' is given to Liberal

There's only 4 polls out of 230 out, so they're defaulting to the incumbent party

[LabourJersey]

I’m no Canadian election expert, but it’s probably a good thing for the Conservatives if they’re already leading in 8 ridings in a region where they won none in 2015.

There's only a few hundred votes counted in each riding. Let's wait a little before we jump to any conclusions

[LabourJersey]

Could the Tories actually win the popular vote

Most likely not, given the trends we're seeing in the results

[LabourJersey]

It’s as if the election was decided on negative reverse coattails. It would be as if Murdoch and Akin were blamed for Romney’s loss or more precisely on nuts like Steve King, Paul LaPage, and Louis Gohmert.

That example ignores how Ontario is far and away the biggest province, with the largest metro area and the most marginal seats.

It would be as if the New York, LA and Chicago metros were all combined and in a single state, and the governor of that state was a hilariously unpopular Republican. Of course that governor's bad approvals would hurt the national GOP nominee.

[LabourJersey]

Wow, the left wing blew dozens of seats by splitting the vote, fdck them.

the Liberal party also isn't really left-wing, no matter what Trudeau makes people think. It's rhetorically center-left but it's historically a centrist/catch-all party and normally governs from the center.