Canadian Election 2019

[MaxQue]

At the end of the day, what a race. I think it has to be seen as a repudiation of Andrew Scheer & the Conservatives, though. He claimed he's put Trudeau "on notice," but that's what my 5th Grade teacher Mrs. Fox did when she wrote names on the whiteboard. Scheer isn't a teacher, & Trudeau isn't a 5th-grader.

As it stands, the Conservatives have received around 6.1 million votes. That's about 500,000 more votes than they received in 2015, & this was the election where it came out that the PM wore blackface more times than he could remember.

Despite all the gnashing of teeth about Trudeau's "horrible" performance as PM, & all the sly nods about the shy Tories, it turns out that running without a climate plan, running on maligning your opponents outright, & explicitly supporting misinformation is a losing plan. Based on the regional results, the Conservatives were supported in the West by a larger margin compared to 2015 while losing votes everywhere else. This despite 4 years (& 40 days) of telling us over & over that Trudeau was ruining this country. So something went wrong.

Despite what the CBC was intimating last night, we know this: Doug Ford is a disaster for the province & the Conservatives. Conservative supporters have trumped Ford up as some messiah, despite every indication that fatigue with Liberals granted him a majority, & we have yet more proof in Toronto last night that Ford is an albatross around the Conservative neck. Maybe somebody on the right will admit he was a bad choice? Maybe, somewhere, a cadre of social conservatives are understanding the depth of their mistake in supporting him?

We know this: the anti-carbon tax crusade was a disastrous position to take, let alone clutch to your chest like a pearl necklace. The Greens received 1.1 million votes in this election. They got 600,000 in 2015, & turnout dropped this time around. Right now, we can see that the Canadian electorate is changing. I think in 5 years' time, we'll be able to say that the Canadian electorate has changed.

All of this to say that as we hear whining about Western alienation & separation in the weeks to come, it's important to remember that a party that seemingly ran on a campaign for the last 4 years (& 40 days) crafted to increase their vote count in ridings that they've already won have dug a hole that Western voters are now sitting in. Andrew Scheer & the Conservatives have alienated the West. Andrew Scheer & the Conservatives are now the opposition to a minority government in which they'll have no say in the governance of the country. Andrew Scheer & the Conservatives have systematically turned this country against the West by refusing to budge on issues on which the majority of Canadians disagree. If the West wants in, the West must compromise.

Time to admit, for instance, that climate change is real (not a party position, but one anecdotally espoused by the CPC). Time to admit that a Conservative-originated carbon-tax might be an okay idea. Time to admit that Trudeau might be a bad PM, but not a traitor, nor a criminal, nor whatever denigrating term they're using this week.

If these results continue for Conservatives, they'll once again be shut out of government for a decade. Maybe it's time to rethink what they've done since 2011?

My friends who live in Western Canada say it’s the East who have alienated the west over and over again not the other way around . Which is why they hate the Liberals a lot .


They think the Tories are currently already too pro Quebec and pro East in general

The West keeps getting goodies and got the government to buy them a 5 billions pipeline. They have a full belly and keep whining for even more.

They are aliened because they keep whining and asking for more and nobody wants to have anything to do with the West.

[jaymichaud]

Well I wasted my vote... lol screw it.

Good luck with your electoral reform you speak of.

[OSR stands with Israel]

At the end of the day, what a race. I think it has to be seen as a repudiation of Andrew Scheer & the Conservatives, though. He claimed he's put Trudeau "on notice," but that's what my 5th Grade teacher Mrs. Fox did when she wrote names on the whiteboard. Scheer isn't a teacher, & Trudeau isn't a 5th-grader.

As it stands, the Conservatives have received around 6.1 million votes. That's about 500,000 more votes than they received in 2015, & this was the election where it came out that the PM wore blackface more times than he could remember.

Despite all the gnashing of teeth about Trudeau's "horrible" performance as PM, & all the sly nods about the shy Tories, it turns out that running without a climate plan, running on maligning your opponents outright, & explicitly supporting misinformation is a losing plan. Based on the regional results, the Conservatives were supported in the West by a larger margin compared to 2015 while losing votes everywhere else. This despite 4 years (& 40 days) of telling us over & over that Trudeau was ruining this country. So something went wrong.

Despite what the CBC was intimating last night, we know this: Doug Ford is a disaster for the province & the Conservatives. Conservative supporters have trumped Ford up as some messiah, despite every indication that fatigue with Liberals granted him a majority, & we have yet more proof in Toronto last night that Ford is an albatross around the Conservative neck. Maybe somebody on the right will admit he was a bad choice? Maybe, somewhere, a cadre of social conservatives are understanding the depth of their mistake in supporting him?

We know this: the anti-carbon tax crusade was a disastrous position to take, let alone clutch to your chest like a pearl necklace. The Greens received 1.1 million votes in this election. They got 600,000 in 2015, & turnout dropped this time around. Right now, we can see that the Canadian electorate is changing. I think in 5 years' time, we'll be able to say that the Canadian electorate has changed.

All of this to say that as we hear whining about Western alienation & separation in the weeks to come, it's important to remember that a party that seemingly ran on a campaign for the last 4 years (& 40 days) crafted to increase their vote count in ridings that they've already won have dug a hole that Western voters are now sitting in. Andrew Scheer & the Conservatives have alienated the West. Andrew Scheer & the Conservatives are now the opposition to a minority government in which they'll have no say in the governance of the country. Andrew Scheer & the Conservatives have systematically turned this country against the West by refusing to budge on issues on which the majority of Canadians disagree. If the West wants in, the West must compromise.

Time to admit, for instance, that climate change is real (not a party position, but one anecdotally espoused by the CPC). Time to admit that a Conservative-originated carbon-tax might be an okay idea. Time to admit that Trudeau might be a bad PM, but not a traitor, nor a criminal, nor whatever denigrating term they're using this week.

If these results continue for Conservatives, they'll once again be shut out of government for a decade. Maybe it's time to rethink what they've done since 2011?

My friends who live in Western Canada say it’s the East who have alienated the west over and over again not the other way around . Which is why they hate the Liberals a lot .


They think the Tories are currently already too pro Quebec and pro East in general

The West keeps getting goodies and got the government to buy them a 5 billions pipeline. They have a full belly and keep whining for even more.

They are aliened because they keep whining and asking for more and nobody wants to have anything to do with the West.

Trudeau literally has given everything to Quebec, even on immigration he completely caved to Quebec.

[MaxQue]

At the end of the day, what a race. I think it has to be seen as a repudiation of Andrew Scheer & the Conservatives, though. He claimed he's put Trudeau "on notice," but that's what my 5th Grade teacher Mrs. Fox did when she wrote names on the whiteboard. Scheer isn't a teacher, & Trudeau isn't a 5th-grader.

As it stands, the Conservatives have received around 6.1 million votes. That's about 500,000 more votes than they received in 2015, & this was the election where it came out that the PM wore blackface more times than he could remember.

Despite all the gnashing of teeth about Trudeau's "horrible" performance as PM, & all the sly nods about the shy Tories, it turns out that running without a climate plan, running on maligning your opponents outright, & explicitly supporting misinformation is a losing plan. Based on the regional results, the Conservatives were supported in the West by a larger margin compared to 2015 while losing votes everywhere else. This despite 4 years (& 40 days) of telling us over & over that Trudeau was ruining this country. So something went wrong.

Despite what the CBC was intimating last night, we know this: Doug Ford is a disaster for the province & the Conservatives. Conservative supporters have trumped Ford up as some messiah, despite every indication that fatigue with Liberals granted him a majority, & we have yet more proof in Toronto last night that Ford is an albatross around the Conservative neck. Maybe somebody on the right will admit he was a bad choice? Maybe, somewhere, a cadre of social conservatives are understanding the depth of their mistake in supporting him?

We know this: the anti-carbon tax crusade was a disastrous position to take, let alone clutch to your chest like a pearl necklace. The Greens received 1.1 million votes in this election. They got 600,000 in 2015, & turnout dropped this time around. Right now, we can see that the Canadian electorate is changing. I think in 5 years' time, we'll be able to say that the Canadian electorate has changed.

All of this to say that as we hear whining about Western alienation & separation in the weeks to come, it's important to remember that a party that seemingly ran on a campaign for the last 4 years (& 40 days) crafted to increase their vote count in ridings that they've already won have dug a hole that Western voters are now sitting in. Andrew Scheer & the Conservatives have alienated the West. Andrew Scheer & the Conservatives are now the opposition to a minority government in which they'll have no say in the governance of the country. Andrew Scheer & the Conservatives have systematically turned this country against the West by refusing to budge on issues on which the majority of Canadians disagree. If the West wants in, the West must compromise.

Time to admit, for instance, that climate change is real (not a party position, but one anecdotally espoused by the CPC). Time to admit that a Conservative-originated carbon-tax might be an okay idea. Time to admit that Trudeau might be a bad PM, but not a traitor, nor a criminal, nor whatever denigrating term they're using this week.

If these results continue for Conservatives, they'll once again be shut out of government for a decade. Maybe it's time to rethink what they've done since 2011?

My friends who live in Western Canada say it’s the East who have alienated the west over and over again not the other way around . Which is why they hate the Liberals a lot .


They think the Tories are currently already too pro Quebec and pro East in general

The West keeps getting goodies and got the government to buy them a 5 billions pipeline. They have a full belly and keep whining for even more.

They are aliened because they keep whining and asking for more and nobody wants to have anything to do with the West.

Trudeau literally has given everything to Quebec, even on immigration he completely caved to Quebec.

On immigration? Trudeau merely followed the Gagnon-Tremblay--Mcdougall Agreement signed under Mulroney about immigration in Quebec.

What else did he gave to Quebec? He gave 0 to lumber industry (unlike the billions he gave to oil industry), he gave all the boat construction contracts to Nova Scotia (while Harper splitted the East Coast ones between Quebec and NS).

[DC Al Fine]

Still bro, dozens of seats.

Can you give us a list?

West Nova, Right wing parties only got ~40% and won the seat

Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles, Right wing parties only got ~40% and won the seat

Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, Right wing parties only got ~38% and won the seat

Lévis-Lotbinière, Right wing parties got ~48% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Louis-Saint-Laurent, Right wing parties got ~47% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup, Right wing parties only got ~43% and won the seat

Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier, Right wing parties got ~46% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Richmond-Arthabaska, Right wing parties got ~47% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill, Right wing parties got ~46% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Barrie-Innisfil, Right wing parties got ~46% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte, Right wing parties only got ~41% and won the seat

Brantford-Brant, Right wing parties only got ~43% and won the seat

Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound, Right wing parties got ~49% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Carleton, Right wing parties got ~48% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Chatham-Kent-Leamington, Right wing parties got ~49% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Dufferin-Caledon, Right wing parties only got ~45% and won the seat

Durham, Right wing parties only got ~44% and won the seat

Essex, Right wing parties only got ~44% and won the seat

Flamborough-Glanbrook, Right wing parties only got ~40% and won the seat

Hastings-Lennox and Addington, Right wing parties only got ~44% and won the seat

Kenora, Right wing parties only got ~36% and won the seat

Niagara Falls, Right wing parties only got ~37% and won the seat

Niagara West, Right wing parties got ~48% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Northumberland-Peterborough South, Right wing parties only got ~42% and won the seat

Oshawa, Right wing parties only got ~41% and won the seat

Parry Sound-Muskoka, Right wing parties only got ~42% and won the seat

Perth-Wellington, Right wing parties got ~49% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Simcoe-Grey, Right wing parties only got ~45% and won the seat

Simcoe North, Right wing parties got ~46% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Wellington-Halton Hills, Right wing parties got 49.88% of the vote and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia-Headingley, Right wing parties only got ~45% and won the seat

Kildonan-St. Paul, Right wing parties got ~47% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River, Right wing parties only got ~42% and won the seat

Edmonton Centre, Right wing parties only got ~45% and won the seat

Cloverdale-Langley City, Right wing parties only got ~40% and won the seat

Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo, Right wing parties got ~46% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Kelowna-Lake Country, Right wing parties got ~48% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Kootenay-Columbia, Right wing parties got ~47% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Langley-Aldergrove, Right wing parties got ~49% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon, Right wing parties only got ~45% and won the seat

Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge, Right wing parties only got ~38% and won the seat

Port Moody-Coquitlam, Right wing parties only got ~33% and won the seat

South Surrey-White Rock, Right wing parties only got ~44% and won the seat

Steveston-Richmond East, Right wing parties only got ~42% and won the seat

Expecting tactical voting to take seats where the right is in the high 40's is silly. Non-Tory voters aren't some monolithic anti-conservative bloc. Some Liberals and even NDPers prefer the Tories to the other progressive parties. Some NDPers like Hatman think the Liberals are just as bad as the Tories and refuse to give them their vote. And that's before we even start on Quebec (lol at the idea of a hardcore seperatist voting for a Trudeau instead of the Bloc)

[MaxQue]

Bloc got a swing towards them in 77 of the 78 Quebec ridings.

And -5.5 in Laurier--Ste-Marie.

[jaichind]

I looked and found 7 seats where the PPC vote share would have given CPC a win:

From LPC:
Cumberland--Colchester
Miramichi--Grand Lake
Kitchener--Conestoga
Richmond Hill
Coquitlam--Port Coquitlam
Yukon

From NDP:
South Okanagan--West Kootenay

PPC did unperformed polls so there were already a lot of PPC->CPC tactical voting already ergo it is not clear if PPC had not run CPC would have won all 7 of these seats.

[Foucaulf]

Despite all the gnashing of teeth about Trudeau's "horrible" performance as PM, & all the sly nods about the shy Tories, it turns out that running without a climate plan, running on maligning your opponents outright, & explicitly supporting misinformation is a losing plan. Based on the regional results, the Conservatives were supported in the West by a larger margin compared to 2015 while losing votes everywhere else. This despite 4 years (& 40 days) of telling us over & over that Trudeau was ruining this country. So something went wrong.

Let's not overhype this (LPC supporters talking about bias against them from the CBC? Give me a break). The Tory vote share in Ontario 2019 looks like it'll be 33.2%. In 2015, it was 35.0%. It's embarrassing that the CPC didn't grow their share in Ontario, but the persuasion that mattered took place between 2011-5 rather than from 2015 to the present.

The problem is more or less what's highlighted in the following graph: it seems as if there are now about 6-8% of Ontario voters who categorically reject the CPC but not the LPC. In the past two races, we've seen them be concerned enough to vote for a Liberal "status quo." And I think part of this has to do with the CPC being dominated by western politicians, a class of MPs who remember Stephen Harper's talking points but none of the PCs who came before them.

https://twitter.com/NickKouvalis/status/1186077457046294529

Andrew Scheer & the Conservatives are now the opposition to a minority government in which they'll have no say in the governance of the country. Andrew Scheer & the Conservatives have systematically turned this country against the West by refusing to budge on issues on which the majority of Canadians disagree. If the West wants in, the West must compromise.

We're in a bizarre situation where every separate region - Ontario, Quebec, Prairies, even BC I guess - is saying the problem comes from every other region not willing to compromise. I had hoped an election would solve these tensions, but instead has further accentuated them; even the best debate (the French consortium one) seemed to spend more time on the scope of federal powers rather than a discussion over how the regions can better manage their economic futures.

I think the long-run trend of Canadian growth over the past 30 years is reaching a turning point. There was a fad in the 90s for Canada to become a tech hub, manufacturing hubs and to create world-class cities comparable with European metropoles. That was a hard task and it was abandoned quickly by the mid-00s. Instead, the country has relied on resources-driven growth as before. Not just exporting Canada's oil and resources, but also for example exporting our clean air and nice views to pump up the real estate market or the movie production sector.

If Canada committed to that kind of economy, we could've staved off the harsh tradeoff every industrialized economy faces between growth slowdown and decarbonization. Canada didn't. We're facing the tradeoffs now.

[Vosem]

What *I* find depressing is how the Cons just keep getting more stratospheric in the West, i.e. all the 75%+ and even 80%+  mandates with opposition all in single digits--and really, that should be depressing to *them*, too, in a dumbed-down "why bother having elections?" way...

Between that and a few other things, I'm starting to think that for the health of the Canadian polity (if not necessarily the party) it would be a good idea for the NDP to have a Westerner as leader for a while.

Similarly, the Tories probably should put a non-westerner in charge at some point

In fairness to them, they're trying; their leadership election weights every riding in Canada equally, which essentially means that the votes of people in places with few Conservatives, like Quebec or Newfoundland, are given much more weight than people in Alberta or Saskatchewan. The problem is that people who'll join a very westernized Conservative party like it to stay westernized.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

My question is whether any of the losing Tory leadership contenders (or O'Leary) would have done better than Scheer. I'm inclined to think that Lisa Raitt wouldn't have alienated as any moderates as Scheer did and probably would have won. Same goes for somebody like Peter MacKay, who of course did not run. Erin O'Toole and some of the others, maybe.

O'Leary or Bernier would have been real wildcards. I don't think Bernier would have stood much of a chance at victory as Tory leader.

Wouldn't Raitt have bled a lot of votes to PPC?

[DistingFlyer]

My question is whether any of the losing Tory leadership contenders (or O'Leary) would have done better than Scheer. I'm inclined to think that Lisa Raitt wouldn't have alienated as any moderates as Scheer did and probably would have won. Same goes for somebody like Peter MacKay, who of course did not run. Erin O'Toole and some of the others, maybe.

O'Leary or Bernier would have been real wildcards. I don't think Bernier would have stood much of a chance at victory as Tory leader.

Wouldn't Raitt have bled a lot of votes to PPC?

Maybe, but if she & Bernier had actually been able to work together better than Bernier & Scheer did, he might not have bolted & formed the PPC in the first place.

[DC Al Fine]

Bloc got a swing towards them in 77 of the 78 Quebec ridings.

And -5.5 in Laurier--Ste-Marie.

Did you notice any major trends in the various Quebec regions?

[MaxQue]

Bloc got a swing towards them in 77 of the 78 Quebec ridings.

And -5.5 in Laurier--Ste-Marie.

Did you notice any major trends in the various Quebec regions?

Big swings to Bloc in rural areas and most of 450, much more faded in cities (Sherbrooke, Montreal, Gatineau...).

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Still bro, dozens of seats.

Can you give us a list?

West Nova, Right wing parties only got ~40% and won the seat

Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles, Right wing parties only got ~40% and won the seat

Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, Right wing parties only got ~38% and won the seat

Lévis-Lotbinière, Right wing parties got ~48% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Louis-Saint-Laurent, Right wing parties got ~47% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup, Right wing parties only got ~43% and won the seat

Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier, Right wing parties got ~46% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Richmond-Arthabaska, Right wing parties got ~47% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill, Right wing parties got ~46% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Barrie-Innisfil, Right wing parties got ~46% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte, Right wing parties only got ~41% and won the seat

Brantford-Brant, Right wing parties only got ~43% and won the seat

Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound, Right wing parties got ~49% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Carleton, Right wing parties got ~48% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Chatham-Kent-Leamington, Right wing parties got ~49% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Dufferin-Caledon, Right wing parties only got ~45% and won the seat

Durham, Right wing parties only got ~44% and won the seat

Essex, Right wing parties only got ~44% and won the seat

Flamborough-Glanbrook, Right wing parties only got ~40% and won the seat

Hastings-Lennox and Addington, Right wing parties only got ~44% and won the seat

Kenora, Right wing parties only got ~36% and won the seat

Niagara Falls, Right wing parties only got ~37% and won the seat

Niagara West, Right wing parties got ~48% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Northumberland-Peterborough South, Right wing parties only got ~42% and won the seat

Oshawa, Right wing parties only got ~41% and won the seat

Parry Sound-Muskoka, Right wing parties only got ~42% and won the seat

Perth-Wellington, Right wing parties got ~49% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Simcoe-Grey, Right wing parties only got ~45% and won the seat

Simcoe North, Right wing parties got ~46% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Wellington-Halton Hills, Right wing parties got 49.88% of the vote and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia-Headingley, Right wing parties only got ~45% and won the seat

Kildonan-St. Paul, Right wing parties got ~47% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River, Right wing parties only got ~42% and won the seat

Edmonton Centre, Right wing parties only got ~45% and won the seat

Cloverdale-Langley City, Right wing parties only got ~40% and won the seat

Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo, Right wing parties got ~46% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Kelowna-Lake Country, Right wing parties got ~48% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Kootenay-Columbia, Right wing parties got ~47% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Langley-Aldergrove, Right wing parties got ~49% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon, Right wing parties only got ~45% and won the seat

Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge, Right wing parties only got ~38% and won the seat

Port Moody-Coquitlam, Right wing parties only got ~33% and won the seat

South Surrey-White Rock, Right wing parties only got ~44% and won the seat

Steveston-Richmond East, Right wing parties only got ~42% and won the seat

Expecting tactical voting to take seats where the right is in the high 40's is silly. Non-Tory voters aren't some monolithic anti-conservative bloc. Some Liberals and even NDPers prefer the Tories to the other progressive parties. Some NDPers like Hatman think the Liberals are just as bad as the Tories and refuse to give them their vote. And that's before we even start on Quebec (lol at the idea of a hardcore seperatist voting for a Trudeau instead of the Bloc)

I'm not saying the left wing would take all of them, that's why I labeled many tossup, but like there is no doubt vote splitting cost the left wing like a couple dozen seats ish.

[MaxQue]

Still bro, dozens of seats.

Can you give us a list?

West Nova, Right wing parties only got ~40% and won the seat

Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles, Right wing parties only got ~40% and won the seat

Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, Right wing parties only got ~38% and won the seat

Lévis-Lotbinière, Right wing parties got ~48% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Louis-Saint-Laurent, Right wing parties got ~47% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup, Right wing parties only got ~43% and won the seat

Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier, Right wing parties got ~46% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Richmond-Arthabaska, Right wing parties got ~47% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill, Right wing parties got ~46% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Barrie-Innisfil, Right wing parties got ~46% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte, Right wing parties only got ~41% and won the seat

Brantford-Brant, Right wing parties only got ~43% and won the seat

Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound, Right wing parties got ~49% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Carleton, Right wing parties got ~48% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Chatham-Kent-Leamington, Right wing parties got ~49% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Dufferin-Caledon, Right wing parties only got ~45% and won the seat

Durham, Right wing parties only got ~44% and won the seat

Essex, Right wing parties only got ~44% and won the seat

Flamborough-Glanbrook, Right wing parties only got ~40% and won the seat

Hastings-Lennox and Addington, Right wing parties only got ~44% and won the seat

Kenora, Right wing parties only got ~36% and won the seat

Niagara Falls, Right wing parties only got ~37% and won the seat

Niagara West, Right wing parties got ~48% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Northumberland-Peterborough South, Right wing parties only got ~42% and won the seat

Oshawa, Right wing parties only got ~41% and won the seat

Parry Sound-Muskoka, Right wing parties only got ~42% and won the seat

Perth-Wellington, Right wing parties got ~49% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Simcoe-Grey, Right wing parties only got ~45% and won the seat

Simcoe North, Right wing parties got ~46% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Wellington-Halton Hills, Right wing parties got 49.88% of the vote and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia-Headingley, Right wing parties only got ~45% and won the seat

Kildonan-St. Paul, Right wing parties got ~47% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River, Right wing parties only got ~42% and won the seat

Edmonton Centre, Right wing parties only got ~45% and won the seat

Cloverdale-Langley City, Right wing parties only got ~40% and won the seat

Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo, Right wing parties got ~46% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Kelowna-Lake Country, Right wing parties got ~48% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Kootenay-Columbia, Right wing parties got ~47% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Langley-Aldergrove, Right wing parties got ~49% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon, Right wing parties only got ~45% and won the seat

Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge, Right wing parties only got ~38% and won the seat

Port Moody-Coquitlam, Right wing parties only got ~33% and won the seat

South Surrey-White Rock, Right wing parties only got ~44% and won the seat

Steveston-Richmond East, Right wing parties only got ~42% and won the seat

Expecting tactical voting to take seats where the right is in the high 40's is silly. Non-Tory voters aren't some monolithic anti-conservative bloc. Some Liberals and even NDPers prefer the Tories to the other progressive parties. Some NDPers like Hatman think the Liberals are just as bad as the Tories and refuse to give them their vote. And that's before we even start on Quebec (lol at the idea of a hardcore seperatist voting for a Trudeau instead of the Bloc)

I'm not saying the left wing would take all of them, that's why I labeled many tossup, but like there is no doubt vote splitting cost the left wing like a couple dozen seats ish.

Please stop confusing the center and the left.

[OSR stands with Israel]

CBC is clearly biased against the Tories in every way

[DistingFlyer]

Will be interesting to see what the average vote share for the winning candidates was this time (both overall & by party). Offhand, I'd guess that the figure rose for Tories & Bloquistes, fell for Liberals & maybe fell for New Democrats; an overall drop.

Figures for the last few elections are as follows:

2015 - Cons 51.2%, Lib 49.8%, NDP 38.5%, BQ 34.2%; 48.6% overall
2011 - Cons 54.4%, NDP 47.3%, Lib 41.2%, BQ 34.9%; 50.4% overall
2008 - Cons 52.8%, Lib 45.7%, BQ 45.6%, NDP 45.5%; 49.5% overall
2006 - Cons 51.2%, BQ 49.4%, Lib 46.8%, NDP 44.3%; 49.0% overall
2004 - BQ 55.8%, Cons 49.2%, Lib 48.5%, NDP 43.8%; 49.9% overall


Certainly from this one can see that the old 'getting elected by virtue of a fragmented opposition' saw is a description that better fits the New Democrats than the Tories.

[jaichind]

Will be interesting to see what the average vote share for the winning candidates was this time (both overall & by party). Offhand, I'd guess that the figure rose for Tories & Bloquistes, fell for Liberals & maybe fell for New Democrats; an overall drop.

Figures for the last few elections are as follows:

2015 - Cons 51.2%, Lib 49.8%, NDP 38.5%, BQ 34.2%; 48.6% overall
2011 - Cons 54.4%, NDP 47.3%, Lib 41.2%, BQ 34.9%; 50.4% overall
2008 - Cons 52.8%, Lib 45.7%, BQ 45.6%, NDP 45.5%; 49.5% overall
2006 - Cons 51.2%, BQ 49.4%, Lib 46.8%, NDP 44.3%; 49.0% overall
2004 - BQ 55.8%, Cons 49.2%, Lib 48.5%, NDP 43.8%; 49.9% overall


Certainly from this one can see that the old 'getting elected by virtue of a fragmented opposition' saw is a description that better fits the New Democrats than the Tories.

Would not medium of all winning vote share versus average be a better metric ?

[cinyc]

Preliminary swing maps (Yes, the colors aren't very Canadian - they're my default red = increase, blue = decrease):

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1186723767734734850
https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1186726751734521856
https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1186730479292243968

[DistingFlyer]

Will be interesting to see what the average vote share for the winning candidates was this time (both overall & by party). Offhand, I'd guess that the figure rose for Tories & Bloquistes, fell for Liberals & maybe fell for New Democrats; an overall drop.

Figures for the last few elections are as follows:

2015 - Cons 51.2%, Lib 49.8%, NDP 38.5%, BQ 34.2%; 48.6% overall
2011 - Cons 54.4%, NDP 47.3%, Lib 41.2%, BQ 34.9%; 50.4% overall
2008 - Cons 52.8%, Lib 45.7%, BQ 45.6%, NDP 45.5%; 49.5% overall
2006 - Cons 51.2%, BQ 49.4%, Lib 46.8%, NDP 44.3%; 49.0% overall
2004 - BQ 55.8%, Cons 49.2%, Lib 48.5%, NDP 43.8%; 49.9% overall


Certainly from this one can see that the old 'getting elected by virtue of a fragmented opposition' saw is a description that better fits the New Democrats than the Tories.

Would not medium of all winning vote share versus average be a better metric ?

Interesting question. I'll take a look:

2015 - Lib 49.3%, Cons 48.0%, NDP 37.9%, BQ 33.4%; 47.4% overall
2011 - Cons 54.0%, NDP 47.5%, Lib 41.0%, BQ 34.9%; 49.6% overall
2008 - Cons 53.1%, Lib 46.1%, BQ 45.8%, NDP 44.8%; 47.5% overall
2006 - BQ 49.7%, Cons 48.8%, Lib 46.9%, NDP 46.0%; 48.0% overall
2004 - BQ 57.2%, Lib 47.7%, Cons 46.0%, NDP 43.7%; 48.0% overall

A small difference between the metrics (note the Tory median improving relative to the average the better they do overall), but not too much.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm going to be contrarian, and suggest that this is a very good result for the NDP in that it will be a great opportunity for them.

The result is very similar to Jack's first election in 2004. 4th place, 16% of the vote, Liberal-led minority government. The big difference was the gain in seats, but they only won a paltry 19 seats. Another difference was that the NDP didn't quite hold the balance of power. But, now they do. The NDP has more power now than they did in 2011 when they were opposition.

The minority governments of the 2000s were great for the NDP, and ultimately led to the Orange crush in 2011. The same could happen now.

Not too long ago, the NDP were poised for a single digit election night, but Jagmeet pulled them out from that. Sure, it fell rather short from what we hoped, but it's still a relief. Jagmeet is a great campaigner, he's not going anywhere.

[Tintrlvr]

Will be interesting to see what the average vote share for the winning candidates was this time (both overall & by party). Offhand, I'd guess that the figure rose for Tories & Bloquistes, fell for Liberals & maybe fell for New Democrats; an overall drop.

Figures for the last few elections are as follows:

2015 - Cons 51.2%, Lib 49.8%, NDP 38.5%, BQ 34.2%; 48.6% overall
2011 - Cons 54.4%, NDP 47.3%, Lib 41.2%, BQ 34.9%; 50.4% overall
2008 - Cons 52.8%, Lib 45.7%, BQ 45.6%, NDP 45.5%; 49.5% overall
2006 - Cons 51.2%, BQ 49.4%, Lib 46.8%, NDP 44.3%; 49.0% overall
2004 - BQ 55.8%, Cons 49.2%, Lib 48.5%, NDP 43.8%; 49.9% overall


Certainly from this one can see that the old 'getting elected by virtue of a fragmented opposition' saw is a description that better fits the New Democrats than the Tories.

Only because the NDP is so weak generally that they don't have any super strongholds/really safe seats, unlike the Tories (especially) and the Liberals (to a lesser extent but they do have some super-strongholds in west Montreal, parts of Toronto and, presently, Newfoundland), so none of their seats have huge margins. If the NDP were polling at ~35% of the vote nationally like the Liberals and Tories routinely do, they wouldn't have that issue. Try doing the same calculation, but uniformly swing each national party to the same percent of the vote nationally (or, for the Bloc, some arbitrary figure in Quebec same as the other parties) in each election, and you'll get a very different result.

[ON Progressive]

I honestly am very worried that those urban Toronto ridings like Danforth/PHP/Davenport might be becoming solid Liberal instead of ridings we have a shot in. We completely and utterly tanked in those ridings, even with strong candidates.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The issue with the Tories is they've got to get over their obsession with negative campaigning. Yes it worked well on Dion and Ignatief back in the day, but I think they've allowed their cadre's visceral loathing of Lil Justin to allow the campaign to essentially become preaching to the choir (for comparison, see 80's Labour unable to square the deep loathing their core seats had for Thatcher with a cohesive electoral message for people with less strong opinions on her). Like, even post-blackface and post-scandal, most Canadaians seem to regard their PM as essentially an affable dumbass, but the Tories insist on personal attacks as if he is some unknown figure yet to be defined in the eyes of the masses.

Tbh this election is really bad for them, even worse than it was for the NDP and Liberals. They were this close to squaring the big issue for the Canadian Right in the post-Mulroney era: uniting Anglophones and Francophones. If they had managed to get the CAQ coalition - even a significant portion - they could honestly be in a position to challenge the Liberals as the natural governing force of Canada. Instead they frittered it away and allowed a zombie party to rise from the grave. And unfortunately for them, I don't think they'll get the opportunity again: the Alberta/Sask coalition is too pissed off and interrnally powerful to accept much capitulation to Quebec (even ignoring the pipeline issue).

[Oryxslayer]

The issue with the Tories is they've got to get over their obsession with negative campaigning. Yes it worked well on Dion and Ignatief back in the day, but I think they've allowed their cadre's visceral loathing of Lil Justin to allow the campaign to essentially become preaching to the choir (for comparison, see 80's Labour unable to square the deep loathing their core seats had for Thatcher with a cohesive electoral message for people with less strong opinions on her). Like, even post-blackface and post-scandal, most Canadaians seem to regard their PM as essentially an affable dumbass, but the Tories insist on personal attacks as if he is some unknown figure yet to be defined in the eyes of the masses.

Tbh this election is really bad for them, even worse than it was for the NDP and Liberals. They were this close to squaring the big issue for the Canadian Right in the post-Mulroney era: uniting Anglophones and Francophones. If they had managed to get the CAQ coalition - even a significant portion - they could honestly be in a position to challenge the Liberals as the natural governing force of Canada. Instead they frittered it away and allowed a zombie party to rise from the grave. And unfortunately for them, I don't think they'll get the opportunity again: the Alberta/Sask coalition is too pissed off and interrnally powerful to accept much capitulation to Quebec (even ignoring the pipeline issue).

Theres an interesting hypothetical out there where Bernier becomes Conservative leader and is able to grab the CAQ'ers and get them to coexist in the party with the Plains base. He would be losing even more seats in the Toronto and maybe even the Vancouver metros, but it's quite possible Quebec and more working class areas like southern Ontario and the rural Atlantic would have pushed him over. It's a hypothetical I'm happy we don't have to explore.