Canadian Election 2019

[136or142]

  I wonder how the typical pro Quebec independence voter feels about lots of immigration coming into Quebec? If they are really serious about achieving a seperate country with its own french speaking heritage, cultural identity etc does the globalization of the population help that goal?

They hate it, at least the politicians they vote for.  Most Quebec separatists politicians are 'pure lain.'

The French term pure laine, literally meaning pure wool (and often translated as dyed-in-the-wool), refers to those whose ancestry is exclusively French-Canadian. (It probably relates to the raising of sheep for wool, which was common in rural Quebec of the 1700s.)[1][2] Some definitions are more specific, indicating those whose families arrived in Canada during a specific period, with a lineage that is 100 per cent derived from New France (1534 to 1763) settlers.[3]

I find it hard to believe the voters are significantly different than the politicians they vote for.

The one exception for some of them may be immigrants who grew up in former French colonies.  Since they speak French, they might be regarded as acceptable.  Of course, Quebec French is not exactly French in France and I don't know if many Quebecers feel a kinship for France or its former colonies anyway.

[adma]

So, you think Scheer is scarier than Harper?

A lot of progressives voted Liberal in 2015 to give the boot to Harper, but you didn't.

I don't think Scheer is worse than Harper. Perhaps he is "just as bad", but not worse.

However, unlike 2015, it's a President Trump (and in Ontario, a Premier Ford) era.  Which to progressives, has a way of "scarifying" Scheer by proxy.

[adma]

Incidentally, sort of like the Family Guy ipecac waiting to kick in, some real polling progress on the NDP front's finally happening--they hit 20% on DART/Maru (with Con-Lib 33-28--but that's versus the previous poll's 37-30).  And the Mainstreet (Mainstreet!) tracker's gone 13.2-14.3-15.1-16.6, with ConLib 31.7 (down from 33.1) vs 28.9 (down from 32.6).

And Nanos, traditionally good for the NDP but lately sluggish even after the debate: in today's tracker, they went up from 15.3 to 18.1!  Wonder what that last-day sample showed.  (Libs still ahead, but down to 33.2 from 35.4; Cons down from 33.2 to 32.1.  Bloc up from 5.3 to 5.9.)

Weird things are happening.

[toaster]

I've voted Layton, Layton, Mulcair and now Trudeau in the last four elections. In provincial elections I've voted Hampton, Horwath and most recently Horwath.

Could it have to do with where you lived at the time of those elections compared to this one?  Or possibly getting older?  Or perhaps a subconscious racial bias? If you didn't vote Liberal in 2015 (but live in the same district now), it probably comes down to one of these things.  2015 was the "flock to the Liberals" election (much like provincially last year, we all flocked to Horwath), it's intellectually naive to make the jump now and try to justify it based on it being Scheer.  Harper was further right than Scheer is, by virtue of age and place in time. 

[Poirot]

Mainstreet riding poll for Beauce, done October 9 so before last debate and Bernier was in it. Margin of error 3,9%.

CPC Richard Lehoux 31%, Maxime Bernier PPC 29%, Lib 15, Bloc 13, Green 4, NDP 2
A statistical tie.

https://www.lesoleil.com/actualite/elections-2019/sondage-mainstreet-bernier-toujours-dans-une-lutte-serree-en-beauce-video-4e4bfee46bf6231bb5554098414744ab

[MaxQue]

https://twitter.com/MariekeWalsh/status/1182481910527909893

Trudeau doing his best Kellie Leitch impression.

Why on earth is he doing this? This seems like something that would turn off more voters than gain, if for no other reason but because it seems rather phony from him.

I would also say he is just stating the legal situation. Nothing stops Quebec government from using that test as a condition for delivering a CSQ. Any other answer would just be a lie for the sake of posturing.

[Poirot]

Trudeau doing his best Kellie Leitch impression.

This article says he did not say values test.

https://globalnews.ca/news/6022076/trudeau-quebec-new-immigrants-test-values/

"The live English translation of Thursday’s debate made it seem like Trudeau said it was appropriate for Legault to implement a “values test” for newcomers. But Trudeau did not use these words. In fact, he did not use the word “values” at all.

“If [Legault] wants to apply a test for the certificate of selection, that’s okay and it’s appropriate for him to do so,” is what Trudeau actually said during the debate. The word “values” was not mentioned by Trudeau in this context. "


All federal leaders I think have said they don't agree with a values test. The Quebec government seems to have dropped their test to obtain permanent residency.

September 27 article talks about the Quebec government's new plan.
https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1319412/caq-gouvernement-legault-test-valeurs-immigrants-quebec-residence-permanente

It would be an attestion of learning democratic values and Quebec values, for economi immigrants. It would not be an exam, It would be an information session and for those outside Quebec could be done online.

The values attestation would be to get the Quebec certificate of selection, controlled by the Quebec govermment, which is the step before the permanent residency. The federal government didn't want Quebec to set criteria for permanent residency.

Maybe Trudeau wanted to look like he was open to Quebec demands ( I think he scores 0 on the 4 Quebec demands) or he wanted to say Quebec has the right to do what it wants in its jurisdiction in the Quebec-Canada immigration agreement.

[cp]

[snip]

So, you think Scheer is scarier than Harper?

A lot of progressives voted Liberal in 2015 to give the boot to Harper, but you didn't.

I don't think Scheer is worse than Harper. Perhaps he is "just as bad", but not worse.

I'd consider Harper 'worse' than Scheer if only for the fact that I don't think Scheer is terribly capable, whereas Harper had the ability to get (awful) things done. Thankfully, he didn't end up accomplishing much in the way of lasting right wing policies.

fwiw, had I been able to vote in 2015 I probably would have voted Liberal. The local MP for where I would have voted (David McGuinty - Ottawa South) was a sensible and conscientious sort of politician, so I wouldn't have minded him in office even if we disagreed on some points. Also, in 2015 I much preferred Trudeau's pitch and leadership style to Mulcair's, who I thought really failed to rise to the occasion.

This time, however, with my restored emigrant voting right, I'm almost certain to vote NDP. The candidate in Ottawa South isn't crazy (have had to deal with highly unimpressive NDP candidates in Ottawa South before!), and I'm comfortable tacitly un-endorsing Trudeau, mostly because of a lack of real change/progress rather than distaste with what he did. I won't mind if he gets reelected, but I think his premiership would benefit from more leftwing input at the policymaking level. Fingers crossed

[ON Progressive]

Campaign Research (Oct 8-10, changes vs. Sept 30-Oct 2 poll):
CPC 31% (-3)
Liberal 29% (-3)
NDP 19% (+5)
Green 10% (-1)
Bloc 7% (+2)
People's 3% (nc)

Ontario is 34% Liberal, 33% CPC, 20% NDP.

Quebec is 31% Liberal, 28% Bloc, 15% NDP, 14% CPC.

British Columbia is 29% CPC, 25% NDP, 24% Liberal, 18% Green.

[T'Chenka]

Singh looks great. Such a shame that the NDP never polls well enough pre-election for NDP supporters to feel like actually voting NDP at the ballot box isn't a waste of a vote in many of the ridings.

Yeah tactical voting looks like it'll squeeze the NDP again. It's tragic how they lost in 2015, I wish Mulcair had won that election and the NDP was the major party of the left.

My riding is strictly red or blue most of the time, but in that 2015 election it was really looking like the NDP had a shot. I will sadly be tactical voting myself this time, against Scheer's Conservatives. In my riding the best way to.do so is to vote Liberal. The stakes are too high with the climate crisis for me to spend my vote virtue signalling that I support the NDP in a riding where they will not win (this time).

If the polls start massively shifting away from Trudeau and towards Singh, I will vote NDP. It looks like that won't be happening though.

You do realize, your vote isn't going to be the deciding vote in this election, right?

Tactical voting on the level of the individual makes no logical sense.

(1) You have no idea which riding I am in or just how close the polls or results will be between Scheer and Trudeau in my riding. You DON'T KNOW one vote won't count. Ignorant post.

(2) If you haven't figured out, there are likely hundreds or maybe even a thousand plus people in my riding with politics like mine making these same calculations. If we all vote strategically or if none of us vote strategically, it can have a big impact in my riding. Your "one vote doesn't count" argument is a flawed way of thinking. If all of us took your advice and just voted for our preferred party regardless of the situation, we alone as a group could cause a Conservative MP for this riding. Which could be the one MP needed to put Scheer over 50%, or the one MP the Liberal-NDP coalition needed to exceed 50% but now they need to negotiate with the Greens as well to form a government.

(1) Doesn't matter what riding you live in. The chance that your vote will be the deciding vote is negligible. You'd have a better chance getting in a car accident on you way to vote. I've studied elections for a long time. I can count on one hand how many elections have been decided by one vote at all levels of government.

(2) An individual vote is an individual vote. A group of people does not equal a monolithic vote group.

If people like you did vote for who they really wanted instead of stopping who they didn't want, the Liberals would tack left to try and get your votes. If you just vote for them anyway, they don't have to make that shift electorally. If no one votes NDP or Green, then there's no incentive for the Liberals to tack left at all.

And I get it, if everyone like you voted their conscience, maybe the Tories would win. Perhaps that would make for a good punishment for Trudeau for abandoning his electoral reform promise. If he went ahead with his promise, we wouldn't be having this argument.

If you can feel comfortable voting for the Liberals, then that's your prerogative. But do not delude yourself in believing you will have the deciding vote. I can guarantee that will not be the case.

The relationship many progressives have with the Liberals borders on a protection racket. They have single handedly eliminated the one policy that would allow for a progressive alternative to the Liberals and Tories, and then have the chutzpah to play up fear of a Tory government if progressives don't forgive their myriad of sins against progressive politics.

Thus, we see progressives voting for Justin the Blackface Pipeline Mogul to defend against Tory racism or climate inaction or something. It's surreal. I genuinely pity the NDP/Greens and their supporters for having to put up with this nonsense.

I tend to agree with a lot of your points here. The problem is that I see this as a high-stakes election where a Scheer government outcome is unacceptable. At this particular point in time, I feel preventing the worst-case scenario is more important than advocating for my beliefs. Normally in most elections, I would (and do) vote NDP.

If I was an American, I would be voting for Biden over Trump if it came down to it, even if Bernie was hypoethetically  running third party but also in this scenario had no path to actually winning the presidency. Sometimes the stakes are just too high to not be tactical and practical IMO.

https://www.thebeaverton.com/2014/06/staunch-new-democrat-to-vote-liberal-again/

That's both funny and sad. Tbat said, I only vote tactically in elections I feel very strongly that a Party must be defeated at all costs. This will be my first time actually, excluding municipal-level voting.

I've voted Layton, Layton, Mulcair and now Trudeau in the last four elections. In provincial elections I've voted Hampton, Horwath and most recently Horwath.

So, you think Scheer is scarier than Harper?

A lot of progressives voted Liberal in 2015 to give the boot to Harper, but you didn't.

I don't think Scheer is worse than Harper. Perhaps he is "just as bad", but not worse.

No I don't necessarily think that. You're ignoring the unique context of each individual election. Where we are with the climate crisis right now is not where we were 2 elections ago, and the last election it was looking a little less drastic and looked a lot like Harper was going to lose regardless of who I voted for.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/MariekeWalsh/status/1182481910527909893

Trudeau doing his best Kellie Leitch impression.

If any province but Quebec did this Trudeau would call them racist , but since its Quebec it all right because Quebec somehow deserves to get special treatment. That special treatment should stop right now

[Hatman 🍁]

Singh looks great. Such a shame that the NDP never polls well enough pre-election for NDP supporters to feel like actually voting NDP at the ballot box isn't a waste of a vote in many of the ridings.

Yeah tactical voting looks like it'll squeeze the NDP again. It's tragic how they lost in 2015, I wish Mulcair had won that election and the NDP was the major party of the left.

My riding is strictly red or blue most of the time, but in that 2015 election it was really looking like the NDP had a shot. I will sadly be tactical voting myself this time, against Scheer's Conservatives. In my riding the best way to.do so is to vote Liberal. The stakes are too high with the climate crisis for me to spend my vote virtue signalling that I support the NDP in a riding where they will not win (this time).

If the polls start massively shifting away from Trudeau and towards Singh, I will vote NDP. It looks like that won't be happening though.

You do realize, your vote isn't going to be the deciding vote in this election, right?

Tactical voting on the level of the individual makes no logical sense.

(1) You have no idea which riding I am in or just how close the polls or results will be between Scheer and Trudeau in my riding. You DON'T KNOW one vote won't count. Ignorant post.

(2) If you haven't figured out, there are likely hundreds or maybe even a thousand plus people in my riding with politics like mine making these same calculations. If we all vote strategically or if none of us vote strategically, it can have a big impact in my riding. Your "one vote doesn't count" argument is a flawed way of thinking. If all of us took your advice and just voted for our preferred party regardless of the situation, we alone as a group could cause a Conservative MP for this riding. Which could be the one MP needed to put Scheer over 50%, or the one MP the Liberal-NDP coalition needed to exceed 50% but now they need to negotiate with the Greens as well to form a government.

(1) Doesn't matter what riding you live in. The chance that your vote will be the deciding vote is negligible. You'd have a better chance getting in a car accident on you way to vote. I've studied elections for a long time. I can count on one hand how many elections have been decided by one vote at all levels of government.

(2) An individual vote is an individual vote. A group of people does not equal a monolithic vote group.

If people like you did vote for who they really wanted instead of stopping who they didn't want, the Liberals would tack left to try and get your votes. If you just vote for them anyway, they don't have to make that shift electorally. If no one votes NDP or Green, then there's no incentive for the Liberals to tack left at all.

And I get it, if everyone like you voted their conscience, maybe the Tories would win. Perhaps that would make for a good punishment for Trudeau for abandoning his electoral reform promise. If he went ahead with his promise, we wouldn't be having this argument.

If you can feel comfortable voting for the Liberals, then that's your prerogative. But do not delude yourself in believing you will have the deciding vote. I can guarantee that will not be the case.

The relationship many progressives have with the Liberals borders on a protection racket. They have single handedly eliminated the one policy that would allow for a progressive alternative to the Liberals and Tories, and then have the chutzpah to play up fear of a Tory government if progressives don't forgive their myriad of sins against progressive politics.

Thus, we see progressives voting for Justin the Blackface Pipeline Mogul to defend against Tory racism or climate inaction or something. It's surreal. I genuinely pity the NDP/Greens and their supporters for having to put up with this nonsense.

I tend to agree with a lot of your points here. The problem is that I see this as a high-stakes election where a Scheer government outcome is unacceptable. At this particular point in time, I feel preventing the worst-case scenario is more important than advocating for my beliefs. Normally in most elections, I would (and do) vote NDP.

If I was an American, I would be voting for Biden over Trump if it came down to it, even if Bernie was hypoethetically  running third party but also in this scenario had no path to actually winning the presidency. Sometimes the stakes are just too high to not be tactical and practical IMO.

https://www.thebeaverton.com/2014/06/staunch-new-democrat-to-vote-liberal-again/

That's both funny and sad. Tbat said, I only vote tactically in elections I feel very strongly that a Party must be defeated at all costs. This will be my first time actually, excluding municipal-level voting.

I've voted Layton, Layton, Mulcair and now Trudeau in the last four elections. In provincial elections I've voted Hampton, Horwath and most recently Horwath.

So, you think Scheer is scarier than Harper?

A lot of progressives voted Liberal in 2015 to give the boot to Harper, but you didn't.

I don't think Scheer is worse than Harper. Perhaps he is "just as bad", but not worse.

No I don't necessarily think that. You're ignoring the unique context of each individual election. Where we are with the climate crisis right now is not where we were 2 elections ago, and the last election it was looking a little less drastic and looked a lot like Harper was going to lose regardless of who I voted for.

I'm still confused. I agree the climate crisis has become worse, but the Liberals haven't done much on this. They're all talk, no action. Granted, Scheer will be worse, but neither will really do anything to help the climate. Drastic change needs to happen, and the Liberals aren't going to do anything drastic. They are far too pro-business. 

[Hatman 🍁]

[snip]

So, you think Scheer is scarier than Harper?

A lot of progressives voted Liberal in 2015 to give the boot to Harper, but you didn't.

I don't think Scheer is worse than Harper. Perhaps he is "just as bad", but not worse.

I'd consider Harper 'worse' than Scheer if only for the fact that I don't think Scheer is terribly capable, whereas Harper had the ability to get (awful) things done. Thankfully, he didn't end up accomplishing much in the way of lasting right wing policies.

fwiw, had I been able to vote in 2015 I probably would have voted Liberal. The local MP for where I would have voted (David McGuinty - Ottawa South) was a sensible and conscientious sort of politician, so I wouldn't have minded him in office even if we disagreed on some points. Also, in 2015 I much preferred Trudeau's pitch and leadership style to Mulcair's, who I thought really failed to rise to the occasion.

This time, however, with my restored emigrant voting right, I'm almost certain to vote NDP. The candidate in Ottawa South isn't crazy (have had to deal with highly unimpressive NDP candidates in Ottawa South before!), and I'm comfortable tacitly un-endorsing Trudeau, mostly because of a lack of real change/progress rather than distaste with what he did. I won't mind if he gets reelected, but I think his premiership would benefit from more leftwing input at the policymaking level. Fingers crossed

Morgan's a great candidate. I'm seeing his signs on lawns I've never seen signs on before (except in the 2018 provincial election), even when the NDP was polling in single digits.  The 2018 election proved the NDP can be competitive in Ottawa South.

[Polkergeist]

Are the Greens in with a chance of picking up any PEI ridings given their performance at the provincial election?

[adma]

Now NDP up another 1.6, to 19.7, on the Nanos tracker.  And Libs down from 33.2 to 31.5 (Cons up 32.1-32.3; Bloc 5.9-6.2).

Over a series of four polls, the Libs have plummeted from 36.9, the NDP soared from 14.1.  (Cons down a point, Green and Bloc both up a point).

Is it too soon to say, Liberal free fall?  (And the Cons are only treading water, really)

[Jeppe]

I wonder if the NDP can sustain their growth beyond a solid 20% this election..

[the506]

Are the Greens in with a chance of picking up any PEI ridings given their performance at the provincial election?

Possibly, but the Liberals have very strong incumbents in 3 ridings, and the 4th is the Greens' weakest.

Best bet at a Green seat on the east coast is Fredericton.

[DC Al Fine]

Voted Tory in the advance poll yesterday.

I toyed with voting People's or spoiling my ballot, but my ultimately decided that Scheer and my local candidate were better fits for my views.

[EastAnglianLefty]

The NDP rise in the polls is interesting. Do Canadian polls tend to show a shift towards the big-two at the close of the campaign as people begin considering tactical voting, and if so when does this usually start to make itself felt?

[Hatman 🍁]

Voted Tory in the advance poll yesterday.

I toyed with voting People's or spoiling my ballot, but my ultimately decided that Scheer and my local candidate were better fits for my views.

You didn't wait until election day? Don't you want to see your vote contribute to the maps?

[pikachu]

I haven’t been following the campaign too closely but why is the Bloc doing so well now?

[Oryxslayer]

I haven’t been following the campaign too closely but why is the Bloc doing so well now?

Good debate performance, and the Libs sliding in general. So their support might be a bit of a temporary bump, one that results in an underpreformance come election day.

Unrelated, but something I think that belongs in this thread:

https://twitter.com/quito_maggi/status/1183366822806151172

[jaymichaud]

I wonder if the NDP can sustain their growth beyond a solid 20% this election..

Nah. If anything, i'll say they're gonna underperform.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/CBCAlerts/status/1183486607858507776

[Poirot]

The Bloc says it will not take part in formal coalition or alliance. Will give support piece by piece, bill by bill.