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  Talk Elections
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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  ND: Trafalgar- Cramer +9
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Author Topic: ND: Trafalgar- Cramer +9  (Read 2749 times)
Strong Candidate
123NY
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« on: October 30, 2018, 03:00:45 pm »

Cramer: 54.5
Heitkamp: 45.5

https://www.trafalgarstrategy.com/news/nd-senate-survey-oct-24-2018/


Ready your "Heidi surging" hot-takes.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2018, 03:03:17 pm »

>>>Trafalgar

Throw it in the trash.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2018, 03:03:55 pm »

I agree, throw it in the trash. Trafalgar is bottom tier stuff.
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2016
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« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2018, 03:06:04 pm »

Conclusion: Cramer still up Double Digits.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2018, 03:06:20 pm »

>Released a week ago

But yeah, Heidi Heitkamp should be called HEIDI DEADKAMP. Say it with me:

DEADKAMP
DEADKAMP
DEADKAMP
DEADKAMP
DEADKAMP
DEADKAMP
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2018, 03:06:30 pm »

Well, it doesn't look like Heitkamp will lose by 20.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #6 on: October 30, 2018, 03:06:53 pm »

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Strong Candidate
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« Reply #7 on: October 30, 2018, 03:07:27 pm »

Conclusion: Cramer still up Double Digits.

Trafalgar is a Republican pollster and they almost never underestimate Republican margins. Where'd you even get this comment from?
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Pollster
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« Reply #8 on: October 30, 2018, 03:13:17 pm »

This is a sample that is 70% republican, 2% under age 35, and 13% under age 45, and Cramer is leading by 9%.
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10 minutes into Lysol, Tidepod, and chill..
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #9 on: October 30, 2018, 03:13:36 pm »

If the Republicans keep the house, this margin seems about right. Heitkamp probably does about as well as O'Rourke.
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #10 on: October 30, 2018, 03:15:47 pm »

Heidi surging. Should be even by next week.

/s
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Neither Holy Nor Roman 👁️
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« Reply #11 on: October 30, 2018, 03:18:05 pm »

Good poll for Heitkamp, compared to what it might have been for an ND poll from Trafalgar.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #12 on: October 30, 2018, 03:22:52 pm »

This is a sample that is 70% republican, 2% under age 35, and 13% under age 45, and Cramer is leading by 9%.
That....that is absurd. Either Heidi is doing much better than expected, or Trafalgar is soo bad that they got +9 out of such a sample.

Based on anecdotal information, fundraising and Biden factor, I would lean towards the former, but I will never know, since only garbage pollsters want to visit ND.

Fox News, where are you?
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2016
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« Reply #13 on: October 30, 2018, 03:35:07 pm »

Zaybay is my Bogeyman. Too much insanity from him as always.
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adrac
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« Reply #14 on: October 30, 2018, 03:37:57 pm »

This is a sample that is 70% republican, 2% under age 35, and 13% under age 45, and Cramer is leading by 9%.

Hysterical.
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I Can Now Die Happy
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« Reply #15 on: October 30, 2018, 03:38:54 pm »

Junk...they're probably UNDERESTIMATING Cramer
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Zaybay
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« Reply #16 on: October 30, 2018, 03:40:06 pm »

Zaybay is my Bogeyman. Too much insanity from him as always.
same to you, my friend.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #17 on: October 30, 2018, 03:43:48 pm »

There's no way 70% of the ND electorate will be Republican.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #18 on: October 30, 2018, 03:44:59 pm »

There's no way 70% of the ND electorate will be Republican.
Even SRA polling, which found Cramer ahead by 16, had 60% Rs.

This is really strange. But it is Trafalgar, so perhaps I should have expected such an odd result.
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #19 on: October 30, 2018, 03:53:18 pm »

This actually isn't a terrible result for her. She'll probably still lose, but won't get Blanched.
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badger
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« Reply #20 on: October 30, 2018, 04:02:40 pm »

Zaybay is my Bogeyman. Too much insanity from him as always.
same to you, my friend.

2016 actually had the stones to say that?!?

To the irony ore mine, stat!
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PQG and Libertarian Republican Pimp Slapped Coronavirus!
badger
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« Reply #21 on: October 30, 2018, 04:06:26 pm »

This is a sample that is 70% republican, 2% under age 35, and 13% under age 45, and Cramer is leading by 9%.
That....that is absurd. Either Heidi is doing much better than expected, or Trafalgar is soo bad that they got +9 out of such a sample.

Based on anecdotal information, fundraising and Biden factor, I would lean towards the former, but I will never know, since only garbage pollsters want to visit ND.

Fox News, where are you?

Correction. Apple relying on those numbers, even in North Carolina, is beyond absurd.

I've assumed hike Camp was DOA as well, but with that kind of a cross section it's tough to cough this race anything other than lean r.

I would have had trouble making that assessment with a straight face, but will anyone please tell me how Kramer being up 9 points in a 70% Republican poll that's less than 2% under age 35 says anything else? Does anyone here truly believe that turn out on Election Day is going to be anything even fathomable e close to these numbers??

Hell, according to this poll if Republican share of the electorate Falls just short of 60% on Election Day high camp will probably win! I don't think that'll be the case, of course, but in a nutshell this Paul is actually pretty good news for Heidi.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #22 on: October 30, 2018, 04:11:01 pm »

This is a sample that is 70% republican, 2% under age 35, and 13% under age 45, and Cramer is leading by 9%.
That....that is absurd. Either Heidi is doing much better than expected, or Trafalgar is soo bad that they got +9 out of such a sample.

Based on anecdotal information, fundraising and Biden factor, I would lean towards the former, but I will never know, since only garbage pollsters want to visit ND.

Fox News, where are you?

Correction. Apple relying on those numbers, even in North Carolina, is beyond absurd.

I've assumed hike Camp was DOA as well, but with that kind of a cross section it's tough to cough this race anything other than lean r.

I would have had trouble making that assessment with a straight face, but will anyone please tell me how Kramer being up 9 points in a 70% Republican poll that's less than 2% under age 35 says anything else? Does anyone here truly believe that turn out on Election Day is going to be anything even fathomable e close to these numbers??

Hell, according to this poll if Republican share of the electorate Falls just short of 60% on Election Day high camp will probably win! I don't think that'll be the case, of course, but in a nutshell this Paul is actually pretty good news for Heidi.
Its highly possible(some would say likely), that turnout remains below 60% R. I think in 2016 it was either 45% or 55% R, but I cant recall at the moment.
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badger
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« Reply #23 on: October 30, 2018, 04:16:01 pm »

This is a sample that is 70% republican, 2% under age 35, and 13% under age 45, and Cramer is leading by 9%.
That....that is absurd. Either Heidi is doing much better than expected, or Trafalgar is soo bad that they got +9 out of such a sample.

Based on anecdotal information, fundraising and Biden factor, I would lean towards the former, but I will never know, since only garbage pollsters want to visit ND.

Fox News, where are you?

Correction. Apple relying on those numbers, even in North Carolina, is beyond absurd.

I've assumed hike Camp was DOA as well, but with that kind of a cross section it's tough to cough this race anything other than lean r.

I would have had trouble making that assessment with a straight face, but will anyone please tell me how Kramer being up 9 points in a 70% Republican poll that's less than 2% under age 35 says anything else? Does anyone here truly believe that turn out on Election Day is going to be anything even fathomable e close to these numbers??

Hell, according to this poll if Republican share of the electorate Falls just short of 60% on Election Day high camp will probably win! I don't think that'll be the case, of course, but in a nutshell this Paul is actually pretty good news for Heidi.
Its highly possible(some would say likely), that turnout remains below 60% R. I think in 2016 it was either 45% or 55% R, but I cant recall at the moment.

Sure. My point is that according to this poll that if it is "merely" in the high 50s Heidi will win. Again, I think that reflects more about the sh**ty nature of this poll rather than height Kamps chances.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #24 on: October 30, 2018, 04:18:07 pm »

Another poll confirming what has already been known about this race. Heitkamp is on track to lose by high single to low double digits, as I previously estimated.
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