If _____ dropped out in 2016, who would it have helped (General Election)?
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  If _____ dropped out in 2016, who would it have helped (General Election)?
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Author Topic: If _____ dropped out in 2016, who would it have helped (General Election)?  (Read 1729 times)
pops
katman46
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« on: October 30, 2018, 12:14:03 PM »

Get your pitchforks out, because I really hope this will be a contested one: if certain third party candidates had dropped out, who would they have helped? Here's what I think, although I expect most to disagree completely.

Johnson: Clinton
Stein: Trump
McMullin: Clinton
Others: Trump
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2018, 01:33:05 PM »

Johnson would have dropped out Clinton wins WI,PA, MI, margin of difference is what Trump had in each of the following states.
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Hammy
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« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2018, 01:43:36 PM »

Realistically I think the overwhelming majority of those who voted third party in 2016 would've simply skipped the presidential race
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pops
katman46
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« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2018, 02:20:44 PM »

Realistically I think the overwhelming majority of those who voted third party in 2016 would've simply skipped the presidential race

Exit polls did say something like 65% would've stayed home. I think McMullin voters would've been most active, followed by Johnson voters.
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Hammy
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« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2018, 03:58:18 PM »

Realistically I think the overwhelming majority of those who voted third party in 2016 would've simply skipped the presidential race

Exit polls did say something like 65% would've stayed home. I think McMullin voters would've been most active, followed by Johnson voters.

Wouldn't the remaining Johnson voters have been somewhat evenly split, or was that more Atlas speculation at the time? It's been so long I forgot which but remember it being mentioned at some point.
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pops
katman46
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« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2018, 04:22:07 PM »

Realistically I think the overwhelming majority of those who voted third party in 2016 would've simply skipped the presidential race

Exit polls did say something like 65% would've stayed home. I think McMullin voters would've been most active, followed by Johnson voters.

Wouldn't the remaining Johnson voters have been somewhat evenly split, or was that more Atlas speculation at the time? It's been so long I forgot which but remember it being mentioned at some point.

The remaining voters from all other candidates slightly favored Trump, but I think Johnson voters would've slightly bent to Clinton and Stein and minor voters would've driven more support for Trump.
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Intell
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« Reply #6 on: October 31, 2018, 06:29:31 AM »

Get your pitchforks out, because I really hope this will be a contested one: if certain third party candidates had dropped out, who would they have helped? Here's what I think, although I expect most to disagree completely.

Johnson: Clinton
Stein: Trump
McMullin: Clinton
Others: Trump

How does stein dropping out help trump?

Johnson: Trump (Trump wins more states)
Stein: No Difference
McCullin: Trump
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pops
katman46
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« Reply #7 on: October 31, 2018, 10:10:45 AM »

Get your pitchforks out, because I really hope this will be a contested one: if certain third party candidates had dropped out, who would they have helped? Here's what I think, although I expect most to disagree completely.

Johnson: Clinton
Stein: Trump
McMullin: Clinton
Others: Trump

How does stein dropping out help trump?

Johnson: Trump (Trump wins more states)
Stein: No Difference
McCullin: Trump

Stein voters that still would've voted were anti-vax, 9/11 truthers, and rabidly disliked Hillary Clinton.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2018, 12:04:27 AM »

I think the only dropout that would have changed the outcome would have been Trump dropping out, because Putin would've lost his favored puppet. No matter how hard he tried, he couldn't just make Gary Johnson or Evan McMullin President without serious questions being asked.
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