AZhighground (R internal): McSally 1+

[Calthrina950]

Arizona demonstrates that ticket-splitting is not dead. There appear to be a substantial number of Ducey/Sinema voters. I would assume that they are independents and moderate Republicans who are satisfied with Ducey's performance as Governor and who are attracted by Sinema's centrism.

[Calthrina950]

Arizona demonstrates that ticket-splitting is not dead. There appear to be a substantial number of Ducey/Sinema voters. I would assume that they are independents and moderate Republicans who are satisfied with Ducey's performance as Governor and who are attracted by Sinema's centrism.

Or it’s older people who don’t want McSally anywhere near their healthcare

Arizona demonstrates that ticket-splitting is not dead. There appear to be a substantial number of Ducey/Sinema voters. I would assume that they are independents and moderate Republicans who are satisfied with Ducey's performance as Governor and who are attracted by Sinema's centrism.

Eh, I would disagree. Ducey is really popular, so it makes sense that voters would keep him, just as voters are keeping Baker, Scott, and Hogan. The senate race seems to just be D vs R, being a bit better than 2016, with no real data showing its specifically Sinema's centrism that attracts people(especially when the R campaign has focused on her highly Liberal past).

Possibly a combination of both. I'm aware of what McSally has said about Medicare and Obamacare, and it is reasonable to assume that many retirees (of which there are many in Arizona), were turned off by those comments. Ducey's popularity is a factor, but his performance can also be attributed to the poor campaign being run by his opponent Garcia. And polls have shown that Sinema is winning over a number of independent and moderate voters who typically vote Republican. That was how she was able to get elected and reelected in her swing to lean Democratic district over the past few years.