TX Quinnipiac: Cruz +5
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  TX Quinnipiac: Cruz +5
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Author Topic: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz +5  (Read 2616 times)
TheRocketRaccoon
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« on: October 29, 2018, 11:41:17 AM »

https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2583

Cruz 51
Beto 46
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Xing
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« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2018, 11:43:26 AM »

They found Cruz up 9 in their last two polls, so it seems the race is back to being about a 5-6% lead for Cruz, but it's probably too late for Beto to make up the gap.
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Skye
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« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2018, 11:46:02 AM »

They found Cruz up 9 in their last two polls, so it seems the race is back to being about a 5-6% lead for Cruz, but it's probably too late for Beto to make up the gap.

Agree. It's a great poll for Beto considering the previous one, but he doesn't have what it takes to win.
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The Impartial Spectator
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« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2018, 11:51:49 AM »

Unfortunately it looks like they have no crosstab for people who have already voted.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #4 on: October 29, 2018, 11:55:51 AM »

I'll just in my corner and pretend the huge turnout in Williamson and Collin County is only made up of the 36% of white voters with college degrees who are voting for Beto.
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #5 on: October 29, 2018, 11:58:09 AM »

Well gotta hope polls are underestimating turnout at this point. Impressive, however.
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Shadows
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« Reply #6 on: October 29, 2018, 11:58:32 AM »
« Edited: October 29, 2018, 12:03:54 PM by Shadows »

Polls are estimating a certain turnout. In-case Beto gets a better turnout he can win.

But for pulling of this kind of an upset, Beto has to do better than 86-12 among Black votes. It has to be 90-91% for him.  60-36%, a lead of 24% is quite strong among Hispanics in Texas but he needs a few extra points here as well. The path is pretty clear -> Beto needs to cross 90% of the Black vote, 65% of the Hispanic Vote & then get huge turnout among Young voters & in Big Cities.

This is not unwinnable. The polls estimate a certain turnout akin to normal Mid-Terms. It is very likely that compared to 2014 or 2010, the turnout will be more favorable to Democrats.

Beto can over-perform the polls by 2-3% easily based on turnout, maybe more. If there are polls showing he is down only 2-3% odd, then Beto has a solid chance of a win !
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #7 on: October 29, 2018, 11:59:55 AM »

About where I expect the race to end up.
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GM Team Member WB #NoToJo
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« Reply #8 on: October 29, 2018, 12:01:05 PM »

Lean R, expect it to be close. Beto can still win this, especially with massive GOTV operations, turning out those who are normally non-voters, etc.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #9 on: October 29, 2018, 12:08:13 PM »
« Edited: October 29, 2018, 12:35:54 PM by Brittain33 »

Lean R, expect it to be close. Beto can still win this, especially with massive GOTV operations, turning out those who are normally non-voters, etc.

Yes, I think there's enough volatility and uncertainty about a real competitive election in Texas with high turnout that Beto has a chance, but a slim one for sure.
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America Needs R'hllor
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« Reply #10 on: October 29, 2018, 12:13:41 PM »

They found Cruz up 9 in their last two polls, so it seems the race is back to being about a 5-6% lead for Cruz, but it's probably too late for Beto to make up the gap.

Agree. It's a great poll for Beto considering the previous one, but he doesn't have what it takes to win.

It's not that Beto doesn't have what it takes- no Texas Democrat would've done better than him- it's that the voters of Texas, sadly, still don't have what it takes.
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« Reply #11 on: October 29, 2018, 12:15:45 PM »

Well gotta hope polls are underestimating turnout at this point. Impressive, however.

Polls are estimating a certain turnout. In-case Beto gets a better turnout he can win.

But for pulling of this kind of an upset, Beto has to do better than 86-12 among Black votes. It has to be 90-91% for him.  60-36%, a lead of 24% is quite strong among Hispanics in Texas but he needs a few extra points here as well. The path is pretty clear -> Beto needs to cross 90% of the Black vote, 65% of the Hispanic Vote & then get huge turnout among Young voters & in Big Cities.

This is not unwinnable. The polls estimate a certain turnout akin to normal Mid-Terms. It is very likely that compared to 2014 or 2010, the turnout will be more favorable to Democrats.

Beto can over-perform the polls by 2-3% easily based on turnout, maybe more. If there are polls showing he is down only 2-3% odd, then Beto has a solid chance of a win !

The turnout is not some secret mystery. You can see turnout of Beto's target GOTV voters in every single precinct across TX here:

https://win.betofortexas.com/

To be sure, it is a superb and commendable effort in comparison to previous TX statewide campaigns, but it doesn't look like enough to me to win.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #12 on: October 29, 2018, 12:19:51 PM »

Looks right.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #13 on: October 29, 2018, 12:29:56 PM »

A massive upset here is definitely the only chance Dems have at winning a Senate majority.
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Politician
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« Reply #14 on: October 29, 2018, 12:30:53 PM »

A massive upset here or in TN is definitely the only chance Dems have at winning a Senate majority.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #15 on: October 29, 2018, 12:32:14 PM »

5 points or less doesn't really mean that much and the House is on the verge of flipping, Dems will have a great should TN flip (Bredesen winning). And that is the true bellweather.
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GM Team Member WB #NoToJo
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« Reply #16 on: October 29, 2018, 12:33:55 PM »

A massive upset here or in TN is definitely the only chance Dems have at winning a Senate majority.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #17 on: October 29, 2018, 12:34:28 PM »

A massive upset here or in TN is definitely the only chance Dems have at winning a Senate majority.

Nah, Blackburn is inevitable.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #18 on: October 29, 2018, 12:35:04 PM »

We only get FL numbers
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #19 on: October 29, 2018, 01:15:00 PM »

A massive upset here is definitely the only chance Dems have at winning a Senate majority.
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MT Treasurer, Axed with Lax
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« Reply #20 on: October 29, 2018, 03:33:19 PM »

Wow, Beto down in the Northam +9 gold standard, not looking good for him!
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ContrarianLibertarian
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« Reply #21 on: October 29, 2018, 03:38:27 PM »

5 points or less doesn't really mean that much and the House is on the verge of flipping, Dems will have a great should TN flip (Bredesen winning). And that is the true bellweather.

Well, I don't think the Ds are going to win in TN or TX (or ND or MO, either....maybe not IN).  But the fact that these are the competitive states this cycle says something in and of itself.  The only reason the Dems aren't likely to win a Senate majority is the 2018 map.  The Republicans had better hope their fortunes improve in '20 and '22 -- or they're almost certainly looking at a brief hold on the Senate, even if they don't lose it this time.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #22 on: October 29, 2018, 06:54:17 PM »

Cruz has consistently led by the mid single digits. He is going to win. Beto will probably have given him one hell of a fight though. He will probably achieve the ceiling for a statewide Democrat in Texas.
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El muerdago es mortal si te lo comes
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« Reply #23 on: October 30, 2018, 12:35:16 PM »

This is about where Feingold was in 2016.
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #24 on: October 30, 2018, 12:44:35 PM »

Beto has had some pretty solid ad's that should be a slight gut punch to Cruz. One specifically has been calling out Cruz for campaigning in all 99 counties in Iowa while missing half his votes in 2016.

Not a K.O. obviously but it is a decent point to make, Cruz camping out in other states trying to win another office while Beto has campaigned in all 8 billion Texas counties.
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