The Chronicle of the Death of the Atlasian Right (VERY VERY VERY DEAD!)

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

By October of 2015, the left had only 1 of the then 10 Senate seats.

:waves:


The right will be back eventually, barring a cataclysmic event in the life of the forum —but it's hard to overstate the drubbing they just took. Even in 2015, the Federalist collapse was tempered by the existence of other forces to oppose the left —TPP held the balance of power in the Senate, Yankee's defeat was engineered by the anti-Federalist center and resulted in Hagrid (a conservative and former Federalist chairman) becoming Senator for the South, and crucially there still remained races that the left just could not win. Even Bore in his reelection romp could not carry all five regions, and that same election PiT trounced Hagrid to recapture the Southern seat. On the inverse, during the permanent Fed majority of 2017, Frémont remained as a bastion of leftism without a single elected Federalist officeholder for most of that year. For the right to be completely shut-out everywhere at every level is simply unprecedented in the history of the game.

This was always a risk associated with a three region map versus a five region map and it is one of the reasons that there was such concern and opposition to consolidation among conservatives between the periods of 2013 and 2015.

This came to close happening in late 2012 when Cottonfield was underway and Labor already had the Midwest, and Napoleon was making forays into the Mideast, while controlling the NE and Pacific. Aside from that the right always managed to claw out one region in the five map and  typically two when things were running smoothly.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

By October of 2015, the left had only 1 of the then 10 Senate seats.

:waves:

This is incorrect.


While Truman was indeed a Senator in October 2015, he was so as a member of TPP. Labor did have a Senator, New Canadaland. And Talleyrand got elected as a faux Federalist with Labor votes in a Special election and then proceeded with the expulsions of New Canadaland and Cassius, who were replaced by Barnes (registered indy) and Maxwell (who jumped between Make Atlasia Great Again Party and Labor several times).

So while Labor was without a Senator during sporadic points, the left was most certainly not without members. And then in early November when Maxwell was replaced by Celticempire, Lumine resigned and was replaced by leftwing Turkisblau.

Pretty sure it was Ebowed who replaced Lumine (appointed to the seat by Governor Turk).

But yes, there were still a handful of leftist Senators in 2015. Early 2016 was when the bottom really fell out of the tub and the Senatorial left became me, Ebowed, and Barnes —the latter two being MIA.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

By October of 2015, the left had only 1 of the then 10 Senate seats.

:waves:

This is incorrect.


While Truman was indeed a Senator in October 2015, he was so as a member of TPP. Labor did have a Senator, New Canadaland. And Talleyrand got elected as a faux Federalist with Labor votes in a Special election and then proceeded with the expulsions of New Canadaland and Cassius, who were replaced by Barnes (registered indy) and Maxwell (who jumped between Make Atlasia Great Again Party and Labor several times).

So while Labor was without a Senator during sporadic points, the left was most certainly not without members. And then in early November when Maxwell was replaced by Celticempire, Lumine resigned and was replaced by leftwing Turkisblau.

Pretty sure it was Ebowed who replaced Lumine (appointed to the seat by Governor Turk).

But yes, there were still a handful of leftist Senators in 2015. Early 2016 was when the bottom really fell out of the tub and the Senatorial left became me, Ebowed, and Barnes —the latter two being MIA.

I got them switched around, Turk preceeded Lumine as well in the same Senate seat.

[YE]

How many regions would the right control right now if we had the pre-reset government structure though?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

How many regions would the right control right now if we had the pre-reset government structure though?

Fewer people per region lowers the bar for winning and thus makes it easier for more conservative candidates to win. That being said, were this a late 2012 it is very possible Deadprez still loses and possibly Muaddib as well.

Deadprez has a very narrow base, and such candidates do poorly when running region wide, because when you run region wide you have to unite all the various quadrants of the right to get to 51%. Muaddib also has this same problem though not to same extent. He is more moderate on economic issues for instance.

[YE]

February 2015

President: Labor Landslide 54%-31%. Fed ticket in third place!

Regional Seats: 4 Left, 1 Center 0 Fed
At-Large Seats: 4 Left 1 Center 0 Fed

NE: Battled between Labor and center left TPP
Mideast: Labor dominated with DR toehold in the Assembly, DR Governor. 1 Federalist Assemblyman
Midwest: Labor dominated up and down the ballot.
Pacific: TPP cesspool where the two biggest TPPers hated each other and bickered openly in public.
South: Toppled by a TPP coup.


Feds held 4 offices, three of which were appointed (Deputy GM, IDS Judicial Overlord, Supreme Court Justice)

Now lets have a little straight talk. Consolidation means that the 3 regions have a larger population and thus easier for Conservatives to struggle head to head against left wing candidates. It also means that all the regions are more sensitive to surges in left wing registration, whereas previously you always had one region or two where the left was weak. This happened a year ago, when everyone was crowing about Dead Labor, Labor controlled ALL 3 Regions, had a majority in the House and Senate.

The only difference was DFW was President, elected by running on a centrist platform.

The simple fact is every two years the left gets a windfall as energized posters join the Atlas, they register and vote and the left gets a boost. Internet demographics is a left leaning crowd, always been that way.

Post 2008: Recruitment by bgwah begins 2 years of JCP dominance
Post 2010: Massive Recruitment by Napoleon secures NE for JCP by summer 2011 and with it national elections again.
Post 2012: Massive Recruitment by Adam propels Labor over the Liberals by summer 2013
Post 2014: Results see early 2015 above
Post 2016: Blair's Recruitment drive gives them a +30 advantage, allowing them to win all three regions by summer 2017.

It is as predictable as the tides. In some cases the right has far back more aggressively or skillfully and neutered the effects, like 2017. Other times the bottom fell out like in 2015.

Time to add:

Post 2018: Sestak and other’s mass recruitment give gives Labor a massive advantage that resulted in 2/3rds of the House and 5/6 in the Senate.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

		Mideast	Midwest	Northeast	Pacific	South
LAB		19	15	30	12	21
SFD		09	04	03	03	12
FED		05	02	06	02	04
OTH		01	02	07	00	03

* Excluding 2 votes for Adam in the UK


I may have misplaced a vote here or there, but it seems even under the old map Labor still would have swept the table. The Senate is more complicated, as the candidates would need to be different and we'd need to use August numbers to determine the At-Large Seats, but if we assume Class II was 2-2-1 (with Poirot as the fifth Senator) it's very possible we'd be looking at a Senate where Labor has a 6-3 or 7-3 majority.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

		Mideast	Midwest	Northeast	Pacific	South
LAB		19	15	30	12	21
SFD		09	04	03	03	12
FED		05	02	06	02	04
OTH		01	02	07	00	03

* Excluding 2 votes for Adam in the UK


I may have misplaced a vote here or there, but it seems even under the old map Labor still would have swept the table. The Senate is more complicated, as the candidates would need to be different and we'd need to use August numbers to determine the At-Large Seats, but if we assume Class II was 2-2-1 (with Poirot as the fifth Senator) it's very possible we'd be looking at a Senate where Labor has a 6-3 or 7-3 majority.

Poirot's chances of winning would have been very low with five seats since the quota would be in the mid to high 20s.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

		Mideast	Midwest	Northeast	Pacific	South
LAB		19	15	30	12	21
SFD		09	04	03	03	12
FED		05	02	06	02	04
OTH		01	02	07	00	03

* Excluding 2 votes for Adam in the UK


I may have misplaced a vote here or there, but it seems even under the old map Labor still would have swept the table. The Senate is more complicated, as the candidates would need to be different and we'd need to use August numbers to determine the At-Large Seats, but if we assume Class II was 2-2-1 (with Poirot as the fifth Senator) it's very possible we'd be looking at a Senate where Labor has a 6-3 or 7-3 majority.

Poirot's chances of winning would have been very low with five seats since the quota would be in the mid to high 20s.

Indeed. So more likely than not, we're looking at 7-2 or 8-2 for the Senate, depending on who the candidates were in the Pacific and Northeast.

[Blair]

And this time the Federalist ticked consisted of two ex-labor members; one of whom I believe had the distinction of being the only Atlasian (in my knowledge) to be formally expelled from a political party!

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

And this time the Federalist ticked consisted of two ex-labor members; one of whom I believe had the distinction of being the only Atlasian (in my knowledge) to be formally expelled from a political party!

This is not so.

Hamilton was expelled from the RPP. Tmth and Ben were expelled from the Feds by a certain former Chair who doesn't like his name to be mentioned here anymore.

[Sestak]

		Mideast	Midwest	Northeast	Pacific	South
LAB		19	15	30	12	21
SFD		09	04	03	03	12
FED		05	02	06	02	04
OTH		01	02	07	00	03

* Excluding 2 votes for Adam in the UK


I may have misplaced a vote here or there, but it seems even under the old map Labor still would have swept the table. The Senate is more complicated, as the candidates would need to be different and we'd need to use August numbers to determine the At-Large Seats, but if we assume Class II was 2-2-1 (with Poirot as the fifth Senator) it's very possible we'd be looking at a Senate where Labor has a 6-3 or 7-3 majority.

Oh I guess I should revive my table huh

[Blair]

And this time the Federalist ticked consisted of two ex-labor members; one of whom I believe had the distinction of being the only Atlasian (in my knowledge) to be formally expelled from a political party!

This is not so.

Hamilton was expelled from the RPP. Tmth and Ben were expelled from the Feds by a certain former Chair who doesn't like his name to be mentioned here anymore.

you know canon for me goes no earlier than June 2015.

[lfromnj]

I guess yall can remove a VERY but thats about it.

[Deep Dixieland Senator, Muad'dib (OSR MSR)]

I guess yall can remove a VERY but thats about it.

Considering the previous election results this is a marked improvement and most of that is due to your efforts.

[Former President tack50]

If any of you are interested in Atlasian history, I will say that this is the first time in Atlasian history (since 2004!) that the left proper gets a majority of seats in a December odd-year election. Let's look at the history:

Dec 17: 6-1-2 in the House, 2-1 in the Senate (YT flips LN-Sen)
Dec 15: 3-1-1; with 2 Feds, a right wing independent (ClarkKent) and a centrist independent (Cris) elected
Dec 13: 2-1-2; with the centrist elected leaning to the right (Shua, D-R)
Dec 11: 2-1-2. (2 JCP and R2D2 as the centrist, but from what I hear R2D2 was a right winger back then? At worst a hung parliament I guess)
Dec 09: 1-2-2; with the centrists being Ghost_white (ARC) and Afleitch (DA)
Dec 07: 3-1-1; with the centrist probably leaning left given he was opposed by an NLC member (Jake)
Dec 05: 2.5-2.5-0. Of the 2 and a half independents elected, one leaned right for sure (Gabu). Then you have Texasgurl, which I'll place with the right given she was opposed by Tweed and someone opposed by the CDP (Bono) so I'll place him with the left even if that was a double tie. Total number is 4.5-0.5 for the right

So at worst it is the best result since 2011 for the left in an odd year December election. And at best it is the best ever. Worth noting Dec 07 and Dec 05 used districts so not 100% comparable.

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

The Chronicle of the Death of Wulfric's Lack of Hackishness (VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY DEAD!)

But seriously, I bet within a year or two, the Federalists will become the dominant party in the same way that Labor is dominant now, and some rightist will create a "Chronicle of the Death of the Atlasian Left." Even though I'm a leftist, I do have to say that you, Wulfric, are the epitome of a hack. A joker. You do know this is a game, right? It's supposed to be a fun diversion where people can pretend to be politicians, and simulate elections and congressional procedure. I thought we were better than this. I thought that we, as Atlasians, were supposed to be better and more civil than Washington. But with each passing day, I start to doubt that.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying we should be centrist non-partisan jacka$$es. Partisan politics can be fun. However, where we're at is more than just politics. It's pettiness. Atlasia drama has hurt our game. We're no better than the douches in Washington. In fact, I'd say that we're worse. This is a problem with everyone. Smug leftists, bitter conservatives, and obnoxious centrists. And I'm not pretending that I'm some sort of saint who's above it all, I've succumbed to Atlasia drama myself. However, this is just stupid. I've seen 4th graders who have been less annoying and petty. Stop taking Atlasia so personally and seriously.

This chickensh!t stops right here, and it stops right now.

[The Dowager Mod]

Dec 05: 2.5-2.5-0. Of the 2 and a half independents elected, one leaned right for sure (Gabu). Then you have Texasgurl, which I'll place with the right given she was opposed by Tweed and someone opposed by the CDP (Bono) so I'll place him with the left even if that was a double tie. Total number is 4.5-0.5 for the right
Hey! I was anti Tweed before it was cool! 

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Dec 05: 2.5-2.5-0. Of the 2 and a half independents elected, one leaned right for sure (Gabu). Then you have Texasgurl, which I'll place with the right given she was opposed by Tweed and someone opposed by the CDP (Bono) so I'll place him with the left even if that was a double tie. Total number is 4.5-0.5 for the right
Hey! I was anti Tweed before it was cool! 

Are events like that why you tended to vote with the right in Atlasia up until the past year?

[The Dowager Mod]

Dec 05: 2.5-2.5-0. Of the 2 and a half independents elected, one leaned right for sure (Gabu). Then you have Texasgurl, which I'll place with the right given she was opposed by Tweed and someone opposed by the CDP (Bono) so I'll place him with the left even if that was a double tie. Total number is 4.5-0.5 for the right
Hey! I was anti Tweed before it was cool! 

Are events like that why you tended to vote with the right in Atlasia up until the past year?

Most of the worst treatment i recieved was from red avatars, So i tended to work better with the blue ones.

[Former President tack50]

Well, half a year later after the last time this got bumped it is time to bump it again given how the right is still dead. Do not let LT's victory or Peri only narrowly getting 51% fool you; this is almost just as bad for the right as October 2019 was.

Again, the right has been limited to merely 3 House Seats, so now we can pass unilateral constitutional amendments on how great communism is and what not.

Pericles got 66% of the vote on the hypothetical final round, almost tied with Adam Griffin's 67%. The left broke 75% in both regions, although FT-Senate was relatively close with a strong showing from Koopa. (and even this just means DC got like 56% first round and something in the mid 60s final round)

I do not know how the Federalists will recover but honestly this makes me worried for the future of Atlasia.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

I love a good historical lecture from Yankee as much as the next man, but maybe this time the right could couch their rebuttal in a cartoonish self-parody complete with mustachioed straw men who are taught to see the error of their ways.

[Pedocon Theory is not a theory]

Glorious news indeed!!

[Continential]

Is it dead now considering that Labor considers the DA and Greens as shadow right wingers?

[OBD]

Ultimately the interpretation of this election within the Death of the Atlasian Right really depends on classification of parties - on one hand, the Federalists's status as Labor's primary opposition is seriously in doubt (despite winning 3 House seats, they didn't run candidates in either Senate race and got ~30% of the vote IIRC), but on the other hand, Labor is weaker than it has been in a while. I'm no historian though, so take this all with a grain of salt.

Objectively, the Democratic Alliance is a centrist party - however, as we've seen, a large portion of its support (particularly in Lincoln) comes from the right-wing anti-Labor vote. Likewise, the Greens are purportedly left-wing, yet a significant percentage of T'Chenka votes came from the Fremont Right. I don't think this election is a win for the Right so much as it is both a win for the Center and a win for anti-Labor. But who knows.