Poland runoff: last polls and results

[Umengus]

Presidential election (sunday)

Lech Kaczynski ("conservative" on economy and moral values) vs Donald Tusk ("liberal" on economy and moral values)

3 polls (sorry I have no details)

1) PBS

Tusk: 52%
Kaczynski: 48%

2) OBOP

Tusk: 52%
Kaczynski: 48%

3) PGB

Tusk: 49,8%
Kaczynski: 50,2%

Clearly, Kazcynski has the dynamic with him (he was at 43% last week). I think that lepper voters will vote for him. A turnout like 09 oct will be in favor of Kaczynski.

First run (09 oct):

Turnout: 50%

Tusk: 35,82%
Kaczynski: 33,29%
Lepper: 15,56%
Borowski: 10,19%
 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Kaczynski seems to have narrowed the gap a lot...

[Umengus]

Exit poll (OBOP):

-Tusk: 47%
-Kaczynski: 53%

no surprise... Poland polls are not very good and has still  underestimed Kaczynski.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interesting, very very interesting. Any regional stuff?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Both candidates sound pretty awful. And the only party close to my views at all in the first round are some ultra-corrupt ex-commies who still supported the Iraq invasion anyway.

Poland: hot girls, terrible politics

[Umengus]

Results

91% of votes

Kaczynski: 54,5%
Tusk: 45,5%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Kaczynski's won by that much... interesting. Any regional stuff?

[minionofmidas]

Both candidates sound pretty awful. And the only party close to my views at all in the first round are some ultra-corrupt ex-commies who still supported the Iraq invasion anyway.

No, they didn't take part in the presidentials. An anti-corruption splinter-off from them did, though.

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You can say that again.

[Umengus]

Kaczynski's won by that much... interesting. Any regional stuff?

unfortunatly no

[minionofmidas]

Here you go. Quite an interesting map, don't you think?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Here you go. Quite an interesting map, don't you think?

Thank's

The shape of the Tusk districts (or whatever they're called) remind me of something...
Isn't that the part of Poland that used to be in Germany?

[minionofmidas]

Here you go. Quite an interesting map, don't you think?

Thank's

The shape of the Tusk districts (or whatever they're called) remind me of something...
Isn't that the part of Poland that used to be in Germany?

Pretty much, yes. (Except in some cases the original borders do not exist anymore.) Really the only exception is that NW-most of Kaxzynski's Voivodships (whatever you call them in English)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Odd. Why is that?

[minionofmidas]

Good question.
One possible reason is the great upheavals of 1945. A majority of the people in the parts of Poland that were German until 45 are DPs and their descendants, after all. They might thence be expected to be less traditionalist. However that wouldn't apply to Eastern Upper Silesia (Slask), or to the Poznan area (Wielkopolska), areas that were "German" until 1918 but Polish since.
Another possible reason might be attitudes on Europe, defined in largish part as attitudes on Germany, which might be influenced by the proximity of the border, intensity of contact(, work experience in Germany, ) etc.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Good question.
One possible reason is the great upheavals of 1945. A majority of the people in the parts of Poland that were German until 45 are DPs and their descendants, after all. They might thence be expected to be less traditionalist.

DPs? Is that the same as refugees? Or am I missing something here?

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That's probably a factor. Also, Tusk did very well in most of the larger urban areas and (from memory) Slask is very urbanised.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Tusk didn't win the whatever they call states that Warsaw is in, although it's close so he could've won the city proper.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Tusk didn't win the whatever they call states that Warsaw is in, although it's close so he could've won the city proper.

The maps are clickable. Have fun (I did)

[minionofmidas]

Good question.
One possible reason is the great upheavals of 1945. A majority of the people in the parts of Poland that were German until 45 are DPs and their descendants, after all. They might thence be expected to be less traditionalist.

DPs? Is that the same as refugees? Or am I missing something here?

"Displaced Persons". A catch-all for all sorts of refugees in Europe after 1945.
People from Eastern Poland were deported to formerly German areas that had been vacated by either fleeing or deported Germans.

[ag]

Good question.
One possible reason is the great upheavals of 1945. A majority of the people in the parts of Poland that were German until 45 are DPs and their descendants, after all. They might thence be expected to be less traditionalist. However that wouldn't apply to Eastern Upper Silesia (Slask), or to the Poznan area (Wielkopolska), areas that were "German" until 1918 but Polish since.
Another possible reason might be attitudes on Europe, defined in largish part as attitudes on Germany, which might be influenced by the proximity of the border, intensity of contact(, work experience in Germany, ) etc.

There is another - though, probably, extremely minor - reason. Tusk is a "westerner" himself - in fact, he is a native westerner, not a post-war settler. In fact, I believe, he is not even ethnically Polish, but rather Kashubian - a tiny westernmost Slavic minority, native to the vicinity of Gdansk/Danzig. Kashubians survived unassmilated in the ethnic German environment until the 20th century, though these days they might be more prone to assimilating into the ethnically/linguistically more related Polish environment. I don't think that played a particularly important role, but in the more rural parts of the East this "strangeness" might have added to his lack of appeal.  Again, this is, probably, extremely minor, but worth noting.

[ag]

Tusk didn't win the whatever they call states that Warsaw is in, although it's close so he could've won the city proper.

Tusk did win the City of Warsaw proper quite handily: (59.66% to 40.34.% or 531,319 votes to 359,303 votes). In fact, he won every single district in the city: his vote share ranging from 51.55% to 69.92%). He also won some southern suburbs, but lost pretty much everything around

[minionofmidas]

Good question.
One possible reason is the great upheavals of 1945. A majority of the people in the parts of Poland that were German until 45 are DPs and their descendants, after all. They might thence be expected to be less traditionalist. However that wouldn't apply to Eastern Upper Silesia (Slask), or to the Poznan area (Wielkopolska), areas that were "German" until 1918 but Polish since.
Another possible reason might be attitudes on Europe, defined in largish part as attitudes on Germany, which might be influenced by the proximity of the border, intensity of contact(, work experience in Germany, ) etc.

There is another - though, probably, extremely minor - reason. Tusk is a "westerner" himself - in fact, he is a native westerner, not a post-war settler. In fact, I believe, he is not even ethnically Polish, but rather Kashubian - a tiny westernmost Slavic minority, native to the vicinity of Gdansk/Danzig. Kashubians survived unassmilated in the ethnic German environment until the 20th century, though these days they might be more prone to assimilating into the ethnically/linguistically more related Polish environment. I don't think that played a particularly important role, but in the more rural parts of the East this "strangeness" might have added to his lack of appeal.  Again, this is, probably, extremely minor, but worth noting.

Interesting. He's Kashubian - does that mean he's a Protestant, too?
German author (and Nobel Prize winner) Günter Grass is Kashubian too, or maybe half Kashubian, I'm not sure. Of course, his were sort-of-assimilated, city of Danzig folk - and fled or were deported West when he was a teenager.

[minionofmidas]

Tusk won Oswiecim, with 50.7% of the vote. All the other towns in the district (it's the largest one) voted for Kaczynski, as did the province it`s in (Malopolska).

[jimrtex]

Here you go. Quite an interesting map, don't you think?

Looks like a pre-WWII map.  Were the settlers in the west mainly those displaced from the east, with those in the center staying in place?

Does 'Niemcy' have cognates in other languages?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Was there any real leftist candidates in the first round? Pretty crappy that we'd end up with Cosmo Kramer clone vs. DanielX clone which is what I understand them as.

Maybe one day Poland will follow the leads of Spain and France and throw off the yoke of the repressive Catholic Church.

So Lewis, you agree with me about their women though?

[WMS]

Poland: hot girls, terrible politics

You can say that again.

Just because Poland chooses to stay with the U.S. and not kiss Russia's ass like you Germans do is no reason to get fussy, Lewis.