Why did Hillary outperform Obama in California by so much?
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  Why did Hillary outperform Obama in California by so much?
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Author Topic: Why did Hillary outperform Obama in California by so much?  (Read 1376 times)
Cyrusman
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« on: October 27, 2018, 02:23:26 PM »

Barack Obama was a much more popular candidate than Hillary Clinton, and in many states performed significantly better than Hillary did. What happened in California? Why did Hillary outperform Obama by so much?
In 2012 Obama carried California by just over 3 million votes. In 2016 Hillary carried it by close to 4.3 million votes.
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RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2018, 02:28:39 PM »

Hillary did only slightly better than Obama while Trump did substantially worse than McCain or Romney.
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Jay 🏳️‍⚧️
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« Reply #2 on: October 27, 2018, 09:02:44 PM »

Trump's issue was mostly with the "soccer mom" demographic as Chuck Todd put it on election night. Most of them were put off by Trump's rhetoric and thought he wasn't the right choice, so they voted for Hillary en masse, swinging Orange County, one of the largest counties in the state, into the Clinton column, and keeping Trump away from any remote semblance of competitiveness in the state.
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #3 on: October 27, 2018, 10:14:14 PM »

Trump's issue was mostly with the "soccer mom" demographic as Chuck Todd put it on election night. Most of them were put off by Trump's rhetoric and thought he wasn't the right choice, so they voted for Hillary en masse, swinging Orange County, one of the largest counties in the state, into the Clinton column, and keeping Trump away from any remote semblance of competitiveness in the state.

I wonder how that group of people will change 2020. I wonder if they will have accepted trump and either vote for him or just not care too much and not vote at all
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Sumner 1868
tara gilesbie
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« Reply #4 on: October 27, 2018, 10:14:40 PM »

Right-wing flight to other states.
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Intell
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« Reply #5 on: October 28, 2018, 09:40:02 AM »

The Clinton campaign of getting moderate suburbanites worked in CA (the ones that weren't democratic by this point because in CA, suburbs around the bay area shifted left in 1988 and 1992.)
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SInNYC
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« Reply #6 on: October 28, 2018, 10:01:56 AM »

CA was an ideal state for Ds in 2016. First, it has Mexicans and Trump is the opponent - enuf said. Second, its a suburban state - its cities aren't too urban and its rural areas aren't too rural (leaving out the desert where nobody lives). Hillary's campaign was all about suburban voters, while Obama was more about urban turnout. And finally, its economically depressed areas (Trump's base) are relatively few.

If anything I'm shocked how Hillary did only 1 point better than Obama 2012 and the same as Obama 2008. Its probably some combination of maxing out the D vote and Hillary being a terrible candidate.


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Jay 🏳️‍⚧️
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« Reply #7 on: October 28, 2018, 01:01:01 PM »

Trump's issue was mostly with the "soccer mom" demographic as Chuck Todd put it on election night. Most of them were put off by Trump's rhetoric and thought he wasn't the right choice, so they voted for Hillary en masse, swinging Orange County, one of the largest counties in the state, into the Clinton column, and keeping Trump away from any remote semblance of competitiveness in the state.

I wonder how that group of people will change 2020. I wonder if they will have accepted trump and either vote for him or just not care too much and not vote at all

My belief is that Trump has abandoned that group, there's no need for him to win them to become President, as 2016 has evidenced, but he does need them if he wants to win in Virginia, Colorado, etc. Trump is basically at his most practical floor with those demographics, if he alienates them, or just pisses them off in any way their sheer numbers will overwhelm the protectionist folks he won in 2016, and cause him to lose ground in key states as a whole.
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bagelman
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« Reply #8 on: October 30, 2018, 03:34:36 PM »

Other posters have already answered for SoCal (Hispanic soccer moms for Romney). As for NorCal, it's the only part of the country that's really benefited from the New Economy.
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cvparty
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« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2018, 04:17:31 PM »

CA was an ideal state for Ds in 2016. First, it has Mexicans and Trump is the opponent - enuf said. Second, its a suburban state - its cities aren't too urban and its rural areas aren't too rural (leaving out the desert where nobody lives). Hillary's campaign was all about suburban voters, while Obama was more about urban turnout. And finally, its economically depressed areas (Trump's base) are relatively few.

If anything I'm shocked how Hillary did only 1 point better than Obama 2012 and the same as Obama 2008. Its probably some combination of maxing out the D vote and Hillary being a terrible candidate.




third parties bruh
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mgop
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« Reply #10 on: November 02, 2018, 05:34:35 PM »

bcoz "trump is a nazi, dude" works just fine for brainless surfers and of course since 2014 caliphornia doesn't have white majority anymore which makes it heaven for dems
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