2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1056025828553830401

So were out of the Hillary Zone and into the zone of "well, maybe the people who we thought were voting were all passed out after work on election day from onanism and too many doritos and were replaced at the polls with people we thought would "forget" to vote." A more sinister alternative would be everything from the polls were right but there was mass voter fraud (from votes being changed to people being turned away at the polls or simply not having their votes counted) to the polls being wrong because honesty's role in our society has diminished to the point that you simply can't trust the average person enough anymore to be able reasonably assume that any poll you give will be not significantly degraded by interviewee fraud.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1056698446139285505

Dems gained 1 point from last week.

Different poll this is -2 for dems

Last week it was D+8.

[Person Man]

Get out the Nuclear Elmos everybody. This is a big one.

PA-11 (Susquehanna):
Lloyd Smucker (R) 50
Jess King (D) 46

https://www.abc27.com/news/politics/election/poll-us-rep-smucker-holds-narrow-lead-over-democrat-king/1562382601

It seems more and more red districts are not looking completely safe for Republicans. I would guess at least a few more could slip through the cracks. Either way, it's looking like Republicans pretty much need to pull a royal flush to keep the House.

I just think the bottom is falling out. First the package bombs, then the shooting, now the birthplace citizenship debate. The momentum is clearly with the Democrats in the closing days.

Yeah. Think about that. If you are not born a citizen automatically, who decides if you are a citizen? The implications of that sounds like the Immigration Act of 1926 on meth.

[Person Man]

MT-AL is tied according to... Gravis. :/

Maybe his patented wrestling move is losing its effect?

[Person Man]

Man, Trende is a hack. Dude is saying on twitter that Democrats high mark may be +32 and that the political environment isn’t that bad for Republicans.

The GOP May win the house, but assuming Democrats high mark is just +32 gives the game away.

I wonder how much he handicapped the House race in 2006.

[Person Man]

Gun to my head, I would say 32 seats.

[Person Man]

So Saturday Night?

[Person Man]

I lived in her state house district for a while. I proudly voted for her in 2012.

[Person Man]

In 2006, it was at D+6 as their final answer. Before that, it was D+13 in 2006.

[Person Man]

In fact, I have seen them narrow every GCB ballot in midterm elections on Sean Trende's website.

[Person Man]

CBS will have their final "Battleground tracker" today, but I guess this will only be their House forecast and no new Senate/Governor polls.

You mean what is happening in the 60 GOP districts and 10 Dem districts?

[Person Man]

The GCB of these polls point only to rural white men/women returning to the GOP, primarily in the south/mountain west. There is a video that oddly enough Latino men in the west start liking Donald Trump.

The talk about a blue wave is misleading, just like a projekt Veritas Video About Things we already know about the democratic candidates. Just apply the Homer-Simpson-ROck-Bottom technique, and Things I look up at Google Sound like words from Joseph Stalin:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SqDP8SnPVA0


More indicative are the here mentioned GCBs of battleground states:
PA: D+15
OH: D+1(from -11)
IA: D+6
NJ: D+20
Just remembered the aforementioned polls, correct me if wrong.

This is a semi-realignment election, with core Republican constituencies switching to the Democrats/abstaining and the Republicans becoming a primarily rural Party, and thus completing the 1860 reversal.


Edit:

It never stops being about Trump's base. Ever. Even when they're losing. "Liberal Media" my ass.

https://twitter.com/tripgabriel/status/1059103844154662912

I totally agree - the DNC should take an inversed 1860 election as inspiration. Let the Republicans take the strategically losing position of the then-pro-slavery Democrats, i e the coalition of rural voters and super rich southern millionaires/billionaires.

So it is now better to consider the Republican Party a Populist party than a Conservative one?

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/ChuckLane1/status/1058894977126817792

Maybe those tied polls aren't too far off the mark?

Just lowering expectations. Don't fall for it.

Except that Bredesen's internals also show the race tied. I guess it's noteworthy that Blackburn's pollsters aren't blowing sunshine up her ass with inflated leads like some other pollsters are (e.g. Cruz's pollsters saying he's up 9)

That isn't good for him at all. The perception on here seems to be that a campaign's internals try to skew the results in as favorable a manner for them as possible, and that would be true here. If Bredesen's people can only manage to show him tied with Blackburn, that must mean he is actually trailing by ~3-4 points. And most recent polls show Blackburn up by mid to high single digits. People on here need to accept that he's done for.

My guess is for a 2006 redux in Tennessee.

[Person Man]

CBS battleground tracker remained flat at D+3. They said it’s been pretty consistent over the past month. They are projecting a 225-210 D House (+/-13).

Source

So it moved to the right by one seat?

https://twitter.com/ChuckLane1/status/1058894977126817792

Maybe those tied polls aren't too far off the mark?

Just lowering expectations. Don't fall for it.

Except that Bredesen's internals also show the race tied. I guess it's noteworthy that Blackburn's pollsters aren't blowing sunshine up her ass with inflated leads like some other pollsters are (e.g. Cruz's pollsters saying he's up 9)

That isn't good for him at all. The perception on here seems to be that a campaign's internals try to skew the results in as favorable a manner for them as possible, and that would be true here. If Bredesen's people can only manage to show him tied with Blackburn, that must mean he is actually trailing by ~3-4 points. And most recent polls show Blackburn up by mid to high single digits. People on here need to accept that he's done for.

My guess is for a 2006 redux in Tennessee.

Agreed. I think it will be many decades before Tennessee even thinks about electing a Democratic Senator again. Maybe in 2058 or 2066?

It's about as likely as Bredesen getting in or them NEVER voting Democrat again. Even Massachusetts is voting for a Republican. I'd say it would take a sustained existential crisis for it to finally flip provided there is anything left to flip.

[Person Man]

I'm genuinely asking this:

What is the GCB lead that the Dems need to give them a House majority?

If I recall correctly, the threshold is 7%, isn't it? Because if so, that's exactly where the RCP Average is at....

Look above, Nate Silver has it at 5.7%. It’s dropped from the original 7 due to a number of factors.

I'd believe that. There would be rioting on the streets, not just sore loser marches if a party was elected with a -7% margin. I am pretty sure that has NEVER happened in the history of the United States.

[Person Man]

I'm genuinely asking this:

What is the GCB lead that the Dems need to give them a House majority?

If I recall correctly, the threshold is 7%, isn't it? Because if so, that's exactly where the RCP Average is at....

Look above, Nate Silver has it at 5.7%. It’s dropped from the original 7 due to a number of factors.

Am I missing something? Nate has it at 8.1%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/

Yeah. Down from 8.5%. Maybe it could get to 7.6 or 7.7% because these type of polls appear to tighten in the last hours of the campaign.

The classic projection has it at 8.8%. That's a padding of 3.1%. About the margin of error.

[Person Man]

The RCP generic ballot average is D+7.0, but remember that in past congressional elections, the party currently controlling the House has a tendency to be underestimated. That has held true in 7 of 8 congressional elections since 2002 and in 4 of 4 midterms since then.

The average underestimation has been 2.1%, so if the Democrats are standing at +7.0 in the polling average and they need +5.7 to take the House, it's possible this could end up being much closer than anyone thought. Even in quintessential wave years like 2006 and 2010 that featured massive enthusiasm gaps, the polls generally overestimated the wave. This year, the polls are closer and the enthusiasm gap is much smaller.

As I pointed out in your other thread, this is reductive and misleading. The margin among competitive districts is far more predictive of House control rather than the final popular vote. Indeed, Democrats could win the House popular vote by 10...but that doesn't matter if it's only driven by high turnout in safely Democratic districts.

So, what's your point? If you're worried that Democrats could still lose the House despite winning the popular vote by 10, you should be even more worried if they're standing at only +7 combined with the history of waves being overestimated. In fact, I agree with you that their popular vote margin may not be as meaningful as it appears, since many Democrats are running unopposed and that artificially inflates their vote counts.

But it's really not that hard. Respected data models show that Democrats need to win the overall NPV by 5-7 points to take the House, and those models factor in the artificial effects of unopposed incumbents. Right now, it's probably hovering right in that 5-7 point area. There's nothing misleading about it. And history shows quite simply that the incumbent House parties usually don't lose the NPV quite as badly as the polls said they would. All I'm saying is that it could be close.

For one, the narrow enthusiasm gap this year is certainly not typical of past wave years.

The last midterm went the other way. You're 2 for 4 when it comes to the performance of the leader and 3 for 4 when it comes to the power of incumbency.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1059479363501125633

So, the best the GOP can hope for is that they might win 3 Senate seats and lose one and net two while losing the house by like 215-220.

The best the Dems can do is give the Senate to Pence but have a margin in the house similar to what Republicans had in 2011. About a 1994 style swing.

[Person Man]

Slew of new polls. Most noteworthy is Weak Gun Control Candidate McBath up 6-

https://twitter.com/healthcarevoter/status/1059498776157659136?s=21

Looks like GA-6 and MI-8 are flipping, and the other 4 are tossups.

These are Change polls, so....

Very true, although with the number of anti-McBath ads on ATL TV lately, it seems like Handel may be running scared.

At least the likes of Handel and McSally haven't resulted to ads featuring a slide show of aborted fetuses and captioning it with the name of their opponent

[Person Man]

The 538 GCB tracker ends up at 8.7.

So anything between 6.2 and 11.2 is what we are looking at?

[Person Man]

JD Scholten in for IA-04:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/05/us/politics/steve-king-jd-scholten-iowa.html

J. D. Scholten, a Democrat who nearly toppled Representative Steve King of Iowa in a heavily Republican district in 2018, announced on Monday that he would run again for the seat in 2020. His decision sets up a possible rematch with Mr. King, whose history of racist remarks racism has made him a pariah among Republican leaders, though not always with voters.

lol, finally the media is starting to get it. Safe R.

There ya go!